A change of heart? Analysing stability and change in European party positions

Abstract

Political parties are often assumed to be adaptive, strategic organisations that continuously alter their policy positions to maximise electoral support. However, ideological continuity is an integral part of democratic representation as well. How do parties balance these seemingly conflicting roles? This study combines insights from spatial models of elections and cleavage theory to explain stability and change in European party positions. Embracing the multidimensionality of the policy space, I argue that a party’s reputation and durable party-voter linkages constrain positional change on its more salient, primary dimension. Yet, by remaining ideologically true to its supporters’ key concerns, a party can strategically shift on secondary issues outside of its core agenda. Cross-sectional time series analysis of party positions (1999–2019) across fourteen Western European countries confirms this prediction, especially for small to medium-sized and opposition parties. This finding has important implications for our understanding of party strategy and democratic representation. Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at: https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2021.1915659 .