Critical Criteria Research Articles

Resilience-oriented scheduling of DC microgrid considering participation in the automatic frequency regulation reserves market

Maintaining uninterrupted supply to critical loads within a DC microgrid (DCμG) with minimal curtailment of flexible and moderate loads after an extreme event is challenging. In this context, this paper proposes a resilience-oriented energy management scheme (EMS) for an electricity-Hydrogen (H2) DCμG considering participation of the DCμG in the automatic frequency restoration reserve (aFRR) market. The DCμG works in grid-connected mode during normal operation and switches to island operation after an extreme event to minimize damage propagation. DCμG network and equipment-level operating constraints are formulated incorporating the effect of aFRR market participation and coordinated with the EMS scheme. The problem is formulated in the convex model predictive control (MPC) framework using a receding horizon, in which three operating periods, normal, proactive preparation, and emergency, are considered. Economical operation is achieved during normal operation, while during proactive preparation, the DCμG operator (DCμGO) economically prepares for the imminent extreme event to meet the criticality criterion of resilient operation. The emergency period starts after the extreme event, and the objective is to supply all critical loads with minimal curtailment of moderate and flexible demands. We have used a Copula-embedded Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) framework for modelling the uncertainty of input random variable (RV)s and their correlations. Simulation studies validate the veracity of the proposed approach on a six-bus test DCμG system. Simulation results indicate that participation in the aFRR market increases the profit by ∼30.5%, and resilience-oriented scheduling reduces curtailment costs by ∼16.72% during emergency periods.

Integer Factorization with Stochastic Spiking in Percolating Networks of Nanoparticles.

As growth in global demand for computing power continues to outpace ongoing improvements in transistor-based hardware, novel computing solutions are required. One promising approach employs stochastic nanoscale devices to accelerate probabilistic computing algorithms. Percolating Networks of Nanoparticles (PNNs) exhibit stochastic spiking, which is of particular interest as it meets criteria for criticality which is associated with a range of computational advantages. Here, we show several ways in which spiking PNNs can be used as the core stochastic components of coupled networks that allow successful factorization of integers up to 945. We demonstrate asynchronous operation and show that a single device is sufficient to solve all factorization tasks and to generate multiple solutions simultaneously.

ANALISIS HADIS KOPI

Hadith is something attributed to the Prophet Muhammad SAW, whether in words, actions, approvals, or characteristics. However, there was an instance where a hadith received through a dream was then attributed to the Prophet Muhammad SAW. In the understanding of Sufis, this is considered a hadith of the Prophet SAW. One such hadith, believed by Sufis, is the hadith about coffee received by Sayyid Al-Qudaimi. This raises the question of the quality of the coffee hadith received by the Sufi from the Prophet Muhammad SAW through a dream. This research falls into the category of qualitative research, specifically library research, using the Hadith Criticism method, which is useful for examining the quality of the sanad (chain of narrators) and matan (content) of the hadith. The result of this research is that the coffee hadith received by the Sufi from the Prophet Muhammad SAW through a dream, in terms of sanad quality, is classified as a munqati’ hadith because of the broken chain of narrators. This hadith is also classified as maudhu’ or fabricated. Furthermore, in terms of matan quality, Al-Adlabi established four criteria for matan criticism. According to these four criteria, the coffee hadith received by the Sufi through a dream falls under the category of hadiths that contradict reason, sensory perception, and history, and it does not resemble prophetic speech. Therefore, it can be stated that the coffee hadith is not authentic.

Critical Evaluation of English-Kurdish Dictionaries according to Bogaards' Views

Dictionary evaluation is one of the scientific principles of improving dictionaries. The main purpose of dictionary evaluation is to convey information to the user and identify the strengths and weaknesses of dictionaries for consideration in subsequent editions. This study evaluates the format of some general English-Kurdish bilingual dictionaries (online, offline and print) according to the principles of the theory of dictionary criticism. This paper explains some of the characteristics of dictionary criticism, the criteria of dictionary criticism, the patterns form of Bogaards' criticism and the criteria that have become the basis for evaluating dictionary (criteria: findibility, comprehensibility and usability). The data in this research is collected by questionnaires which survey methodology is implemented by returning to different users of bilingual dictionaries and presenting questionnaires to them. To achieve this, a number of users were distributed questionnaires, after answering the the questionnaire, the responces were analysed using SPSS 2022. The research population consists of speakers of Central Kurdish in Erbil, Sulaimani and Halabja provinces. The study reached several conclusions, the most important of which are that most users do not have a high level of satisfaction with the dictionaries they had used, and they recorded a low arithmetic mean according to the criteria of Bogaards' Criticism.

How consumers assess retailer brand substitution strategy: Impact of perceived similarity and consumer attachment

The objective of this study is to examine how consumers assess brand substitution strategies implemented by retailers, focusing specifically on the transition from Promogro to MG (Magasin Général) retailer brand. A quantitative study involving 351 Tunisian customers who regularly patronize supermarkets (Promogro and MG) was conducted to test hypotheses and analyze the impact of various factors in April 2022. The research model was evaluated through structural equation modeling (SEM) using the AMOS 22 software. The results indicate a negative correlation between consumers’ attachment to the old retail brand and their attitude toward the brand substitution process (β = –0.09*, p < 0.01). Furthermore, perceptions of the retailer brand emerged as a significant mediating factor influencing the relationship between attitudes and consumers’ intention to revisit the new retailer brand (β = 0.29**, confidence interval [0.17; 0.51]). Additionally, the study found that the association between consumer attachment and perceptions of the new retailer brand is positively moderated by perceived similarity (β = 0.226, p = 0.00). Specifically, when there is a high degree of resemblance between the two retailer brands, customers with a stronger attachment to the former brand tend to have a more favorable perception of the new retailer brand. This study provides valuable insights for managers, helping them identify critical success criteria that facilitate customer acceptance of brand changes and offering guidance on effectively substituting retailer brand names.

Study on the Vertical Stability of Drilling Wellbore under Optimized Constraints

With the development of coal resource extraction and wellbore construction proceeding towards deeper depths, the stability of drilling wellbore structures has become increasingly severe, even posing a barrier to the use of drilling method technology in deep wellbore construction. To address this issue, this study raised an optimized constraints method involving pre-throwing cement slurry to the bottom before wellbore decent, altering bottom constraints. Firstly, the critical depth and instability criterion of this optimized method was derived by catastrophe theory. Subsequently, the role of single-factor and multi-factor sensitivity analyses on critical depth was discussed. The engineering effects of optimized constraint methods were contrasted and examined in several drilling projects. Finally, the characteristic values of real engineering were computed using numerical techniques and ABAQUS2020 software, and the efficacy of optimization approaches was examined and validated. The results revealed that the critical depth increased by 41.39 ± 5%. The influence factors described in order of the degree were the counterweight water height, the elastic modulus, the thickness of the wellbore, and the self-weight of the wellbore, sequentially. The conclusion on structural stability between the numerical calculation solution and theoretical calculation solution was completely the same. The optimized constraints method can effectively improve the stability of the wellbore structure.

Critical Criteria Depicting the Rational Design of Zn Anode Current Collector

AbstractBy virtue of the intrinsic safety and cost‐effectiveness, aqueous Zn‐ion batteries (AZIBs) have gained increasing attention in the realm of energy storage. In spite of the promise of Zn anode, challenges like dendrite growth and side reactions persist as hurdles to be overcome. Addressing this, the rational design of Zn anode current collectors (ZACCs) is an effective solution. Recent years have witnessed the significant strides in the construction of ZACCs, yet the precise pathways for ZACC development remain unclear, lacking a set of specific criteria to guide progress. In this comprehensive review, acknowledging the concerns surrounding Zn anodes, six criteria—electrical conductivity, zincophilicity, orientational deposition inducibility, chemical stability, mechanical durability, and scalability—are innovatively put forward as pivotal benchmarks for the design of ZACCs. Each criterion is accompanied by tailored optimization strategies and corresponding challenges. Furthermore, future trend in ZACCs development is envisaged, along with potential application scenarios for AZIBs. This review will expedite the advancement of ZACCs and contribute to the flourishing landscape of AZIBs.

Enhancing gust load alleviation performance in an optimized composite wing using passive wingtip devices: Folding and Twist approaches

This paper introduces an innovative numerical method for the design and optimization of high-aspect-ratio composite wings equipped with passive control systems, specifically, Folding WingTip (FWT) and Twist WingTip (TWT) devices. The aim is to enhance Gust Load Alleviation (GLA) performance in the baseline wing. Recent numerical studies have indicated that the inclusion of spring devices and wingtip modifications can offer additional benefits in alleviating gust loads during flight. The baseline wing is designed using a comprehensive multi-disciplinary optimization framework, taking into account aerostructural constraints and exploiting the anisotropic properties of composite materials. The proposed methodology integrates Finite Element (FE) software, an in-house Reduced Order Model (ROM) framework for nonlinear aeroelastic analyses, and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). This method, implemented in the Nonlinear Aeroelastic Simulation Software (NAS2) package, facilitated the streamlined design of composite wings with optimized aeroelastic and structural performance. The paper is divided into two main parts. Part 1 introduces a Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) approach for high-aspect-ratio composite wings, leading to the development of a baseline wing model. Part 2 evaluates the effectiveness of the FWT and TWT devices in alleviating gust loads on the baseline wing, with a focus on the Root Bending Moment (RBM) as a critical criterion for comparison. In wingtip modeling, geometrical nonlinearity is incorporated, and elastic trim is adjusted in each iteration to accommodate shape changes under load and aerodynamic panel movement is synchronized with structural adjustments.

Optimizing dual modal biometric authentication: hybrid HPO-ANFIS and HPO-CNN framework

In the realm of secure data access, biometric authentication frameworks are vital. This work proposes a hybrid model, with a 90% confidence interval, that combines "hyperparameter optimization-adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (HPO-ANFIS)" parallel and "hyperparameter optimization-convolutional neural network (HPO-CNN)" sequential techniques. This approach addresses challenges in feature selection, hyperparameter optimization (HPO), and classification in dual multimodal biometric authentication. HPO-ANFIS optimizes feature selection, enhancing discriminative abilities, resulting in improved accuracy and reduced false acceptance and rejection rates in the parallel modal architecture. Meanwhile, HPO-CNN focuses on optimizing network designs and parameters in the sequential modal architecture. The hybrid model's 90% confidence interval ensures accurate and statistically significant performance evaluation, enhancing overall system accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and specificity. Through rigorous analysis and comparison, the hybrid model surpasses existing approaches across critical criteria, providing an advanced solution for secure and accurate biometric authentication.

Couette–Poiseuille flow of variable viscosity in a multilayered channel partially filled with a homogeneous anisotropic porous layer: Role of the glycocalyx in attenuating shear stress on endothelial cells

We present an analytical solution for the Couette–Poiseuille flow of variable viscosity in a multilayered channel partially filled with a homogeneous anisotropic porous layer. We establish a critical criterion that dictates the dominating factor when the flow is under the influence of shear and pressure gradient combined. This multilayered system resembles blood flow inside an artery where the fluid layer 1, fluid layer 2, and anisotropic porous layer describe the red blood cell layer, plasma layer, and glycocalyx layer, respectively. One of the novel features of this work is to understand the shear stress distribution on the liquid–porous interface (plasma membrane) and the bottom plate (endothelial cell layer) considering the variable viscosity of the fluid layer 1 while accounting for the anisotropic permeability of the porous medium. We use the obtained analytical solution to investigate the effect of the glycocalyx layer on the transmission of the fluid shear stress to the endothelial cell layer. We perceive that the shear stress distribution is more effective at the outer edge of the glycocalyx (plasma membrane) than the endothelial cell layer. On the other hand, the impact of the anisotropy on the shear stress distribution is more significant on the endothelial cell layer. This model is amenable to analytical solutions of the multilayered system considering the variable viscosity property of the blood and providing a framework for designing microfluidic systems that replicate biological glycocalyx, such as glycocalyx scaffolding.

Current progress towards prevention of Nipah and Hendra disease in humans: A scoping review of vaccine and monoclonal antibody candidates being evaluated in clinical trials.

Nipah and Hendra are deadly zoonotic diseases with pandemic potential. To date, no human vaccine or monoclonal antibody (mAb) has been licensed to prevent disease caused by these pathogens. The aim of this scoping review was to identify and describe all Phase I, II, and III clinical trials of vaccine candidates or mAbs candidates designed to prevent Nipah and Hendra in humans and to compare the characteristics of the vaccine candidates to characteristics outlined in the Target Product Profiledrafted by the World Health Organisation as part of the WHO Research & Development Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics. We searched 23 clinical trial registries, the Cochrane Central Register of Clinical Trials, and grey literature up to June 2023 to identify vaccine and mAb candidates being evaluated in registered clinical trials. Vaccine candidate and trial characteristics were double-extracted for evaluation and the vaccine candidate characteristics were compared with the preferred and critical criteria of the World Health Organisation's Target Product Profile for Nipah virus vaccine. Three vaccine candidates (Hendra Virus Soluble Glycoprotein Vaccine [HeV-sG-V], PHV02, and mRNA-1215) and one mAb (m102.4) had a registered human clinical trial by June 2023. All trials were phase 1, dose-ranging trials taking place in the United States of America or Australia and enrolling healthy adults. Although all vaccine candidates meet the dose regimen and route of administration criteria of the Target Product Profile, other criteria such as measures of efficacy and reactogenicity will need to be evaluated in the future as evidence becomes available. Multiple vaccine candidates and one mAb candidate have reached the stage of human clinical trials and are reviewed here. Monitoring progress during evaluation of these candidates and candidates entering clinical trials in the future can help highlight many of the challenges that remain.

Multicriteria Decision Making in Site Selection for Nuclear Power Plants

Nuclear energy is an important alternative energy source. However, construction of nuclear power plants (NPPs) requires the consideration of environmental, economic, socioeconomic, health, and safety factors since using such an energy source involves some risks during the operation lifetime of a NPP. Accordingly, the selection of the most suitable site for a NPP yields a multicriteria decision making (MCDM) problem. Natural hazards, health hazards, environmental conditions, population density, and the availability of water resources are among the main factors that should be considered. To demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology, two previously identified NPP sites in Turkey, specifically, Mersin-Akkuyu and Sinop-Abalı, are compared utilizing the multicriteria utility functions. In the comparison of these two sites, seismic hazard, tsunami hazard; extreme wind hazard; distance to facilities; population density; proximity to the city center; existence of forests, natural parks, nature conservation areas, and natural monuments; biodiversity; and immovable cultural heritage have been identified as the most important critical criteria and are evaluated concerning the utility functions developed for each criterion. The optimal site is selected within the framework of the MCDM rules, and is recommended as the output of the study.

“Parametric study on the age of air in a full-scale office room using perforated duct diffusers.”

Following the recent pandemic of COVID-19, scientists have made many efforts to devise a workable solution for it, worldwide. However, it was shown that the protective effect of a well-conditioning system is as high as five times in comparison to the face-covering and other proposed procedures. In this context, the age of air and the type of filtration systems in closed spaces became the critical criteria for comparing the capability of ventilation systems. In this paper, a validated numerical model for the perforated duct diffusers is used to study the behaviour of the local age of air at the full-scale office with 8 feet (2.44 [m]) height, under various initial conditions like initial velocity and air change per hour. Also, different geometries for the ducts have been investigated under the same initial condition, as well as the effect of direction, ventilation effectiveness, and flow pattern. Finally, the volume average of the age of air at different zones has been nominated to perform the sensitivity analysis of each variable based on the variation of the airflow. The results show that diffusers with vertical perforations would be more effective during the pandemic than the other types in airborne mitigation. Moreover, the highest available airflow shall be set until such time there is no windy area in the breathing zone. Within these modifications, the residence time of the infectious nuclei in the breathing zone may decrease by up to 30%.

Flexible Antibacterial Respiratory Monitoring Sensor Based on Controllable Au-Modified Surface of Highly {001} Preferred Anatase Titanium Dioxide Thin Film.

Respiratory signals are critical clinical diagnostic criteria for respiratory diseases and health conditions, and respiratory sensors play a crucial role in achieving the desired respiratory monitoring effect. High sensitivity to a single factor can improve the reliability of respiratory monitoring, and maintaining the hygiene of the sensors is also important for daily health monitoring. Herein, we propose a flexible Au-modified anatase titanium dioxide resistive respiratory sensor, which can be mechanically compliantly attached to curved surfaces for respiratory monitoring in different modalities (i.e., respiratory intensity, frequency, and rate). The uniform and preferentially oriented anatase titanium dioxide films gained by the polymer-assisted deposition technique can be fabricated on flexible substrates through a liquid-assisted transferring process. The Au modification can enhance surface plasmon resonance to facilitate the photocatalytic activity of titanium dioxide, and the optimized distribution of Au on the surface of titanium dioxide film made the sensor have an excellent antibacterial effect. The uniquely designed encapsulation can effectively control the contact between the surface of titanium dioxide films and electrodes, allowing the flexible sensor to exhibit fast response time (0.71 s) and recovery time (1.06 s) to respiratory as well as insensitivity or low sensitivity to other factors (i.e., gas composition, humidity, temperature, stress, and strain). This work provided an effective strategy for flexible wearable respiratory sensors and has great potential in daily respiratory monitoring for health management and pandemic control.

A closed-form analytical variational approach to thermally induced thin-film delamination

Thin polymeric films applied on stiff substrates are prone to delamination upon thermal loading. Different thermal expansion coefficients and different elastic properties can cause localized stress concentrations in the interface between applied layer and substrate. The present work proposes a variational approach to compute residual stresses and strains within the film. Using finite element calculations, it is shown that the presented closed-form analytical solution provides accurate interfacial stresses. Employing a critical distances failure criterion, these stresses are used to predict thermally induced crack nucleation. The proposed model is validated using experimental data of thermally loaded epoxy–glass specimens. It is in good agreement with the test data and provides predictions for thin-film delamination.

Underground Mine Safety and Health: A Hybrid MEREC-CoCoSo System for the Selection of Best Sensor.

This research addresses the paramount issue of enhancing safety and health conditions in underground mines through the selection of optimal sensor technologies. A novel hybrid MEREC-CoCoSo system is proposed, integrating the strengths of the MEREC (Method for Eliciting Relative Weights) and Combined Compromise Solution (CoCoSo) methods. The study involves a three-stage framework: criteria and sensor discernment, criteria weight determination using MEREC, and sensor prioritization through the MEREC-CoCoSo framework. Fifteen criteria and ten sensors were identified, and a comprehensive analysis, including MEREC-based weight determination, led to the prioritization of "Ease of Installation" as the most critical criterion. Proximity sensors were identified as the optimal choice, followed by biometric sensors, gas sensors, and temperature and humidity sensors. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed MEREC-CoCoSo model, a rigorous comparison was conducted with established methods, including VIKOR, TOPSIS, TODIM, ELECTRE, COPRAS, EDAS, and TRUST. The comparison encompassed relevant metrics such as accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, providing a comprehensive understanding of the proposed model's performance in relation to other established methodologies. The outcomes of this comparative analysis consistently demonstrated the superiority of the MEREC-CoCoSo model in accurately selecting the best sensor for ensuring safety and health in underground mining. Notably, the proposed model exhibited higher accuracy rates, increased sensitivity, and improved specificity compared to alternative methods. These results affirm the robustness and reliability of the MEREC-CoCoSo model, establishing it as a state-of-the-art decision-making framework for sensor selection in underground mine safety. The inclusion of these actual results enhances the clarity and credibility of our research, providing valuable insights into the superior performance of the proposed model compared to existing methodologies. The main objective of this research is to develop a robust decision-making framework for optimal sensor selection in underground mines, with a focus on enhancing safety and health conditions. The study seeks to identify and prioritize critical criteria for sensor selection in the context of underground mine safety. The research strives to contribute to the mining industry by offering a structured and effective approach to sensor selection, prioritizing safety and health in underground mining operations.

A comparative study on characterizing the fracture toughness variations in thick-wall hydrogenation reactor welded joint by spherical indentation tests

This study provides an investigation on the existing models in predicting the fracture toughness distributions in thick-wall hydrogenation reactor welded joint from SITs. Three criterions, namely the critical stress, the critical strain, and the critical damage variable, were used in determining the critical indentation depth in the IEF model, together with the ERR model. Experimental results proved that none of the existing four criterions (or models) works for all zones in the welded joint. The critical stress criterion well reproduces the decrease of KIC in the weld (compared with that of the base metal) and the KIC distributions along the thickness, but may provide highly non-conservative predictions (more than 100% over-estimation). Highly stable KIC predictions were obtained from the critical strain criterion and the ERR model, but the critical strain criterion failed in characterizing weakest parts of the welded joint (i.e., the HAZ and weld) as assuming all zones with the same plasticity, and the ERR model failed in characterizing one of the weakest parts (i.e., weld) due to the existence of initial damage. Compared with the critical strain criterion and the ERR model, highly instable prediction results were observed in the CDV criterion, with the maximum error exceeds 50%. Source of errors in the existing fracture toughness prediction models were extensively explored through the physical basis of each criterion (or model) and from the solidarity of the phenomenologically summarized criterions.

Effective Management of Construction Project Team: Identifying Team Composition Strategies and Criteria

This study delves into team composition within the construction industry, exploring its uniqueness amid the proven benefits of effective teamwork in productivity, innovation, and member satisfaction. Acknowledging the challenges arising from diverse workforces and projects-specific team requirements in construction, the research emphasizes the need for careful member selection to ensure project success. Focused on addressing gaps in understanding construction team management, the study aims to uncover fundamental elements crucial for steering these teams effectively. It endeavors to identify indispensable requisites by examining influential factors and criteria essential for creating an ideal team composition conducive to efficient management in construction. To achieve these goals, the study first reviewed the literature to distill critical criteria contributing to team effectiveness in various research fields. Subsequently, in-depth interviews with nine expert project managers and team members renowned for successful project leadership provided qualitative insights, which were analyzed thematically. The research identified three pivotal contributors to construction team effectiveness: Structured selection criteria and processes, qualifications, experience, and expertise, and finally, interpersonal skills and capabilities. These factors collectively shape a framework for optimizing construction team management, emphasizing the importance of systematic selection processes, relevant expertise, and critical interpersonal skills to foster collaborative team dynamics. This study illuminates the crucial components necessary for steering construction teams effectively, presenting insights valuable for refining industry practices and improving project outcomes. The study lays the groundwork for more efficient and successful construction project executions by bridging gaps in understanding the significance of member selection.

IMPLEMENTASI LEAN SIX SIGMA UNTUK MENURUNKAN VARIASI DAN WAKTU PROSES PENGADAAN OBAT DI INSTALASI FARMASI RUMAH SAKIT ISLAM AMAL SEHAT SRAGEN

Background: Drug management needs to be done to prevent stock out, over stock, and drug purchases due to emergency conditions. Reports of drug management problems at Amal Sehat Sragen Hospital are stock outs resulting in immediate drug purchases and patients do not get the drug as they should. Lean Six Sigma combines two methodologies to help speed up certain processes so they can solve problems faster while creating more value for customers. When combined, these create a powerful methodology for managing a business and completing tasks on time, on budget, saving money, adding value and increasing productivity.
 Objectives: Assessing the implementation of Lean Six Sigma to reduce variation and processing time for drug procurement at the Pharmacy Installation of Amal Sehat Sragen Hospital.
 Methods: The method used in this study is a mixed methods with a Participatory Action Research (PAR) approach.
 Results: The results of the sample data that has variations and processing time are correlated with criticality, cost, and performance values to obtain Importance Index (II) values. Calculation of Importance Index (II), before implementation, 3 items with high Importance Index (II) values were obtained, namely "Gabapentin 300mg" (8.7), "Metformin 500mg (11.8), and "Lisinopril 5mg" (10.7) which decreased after implementation to “Gabapentin 300mg” (4.5), “Metformin 500mg (3.2), and “Lisinopril 5mg” (5.3). Assessment of the effectiveness and efficiency of drug procurement by measuring the lead time in cycle I was 9 days 23 hours 25 minutes, decreasing to 4 days 7 hours 50 minutes in cycle III. The efficiency measure based on the Value-added ratio (VAR) in cycle I was 14% and increased to 34% in cycle III.
 Conclusions: The implementation of Lean Six Sigma with DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) and Participatory Action Research approaches (three cycles) was able to reduce variations in the drug procurement process (critical criteria, performance, and cost) and overall lead time in the drug procurement process at Amal Sehat Sragen Hospital.

Medicine demand forecasting: an assessment of a private hospital in Pernambuco

The efficient management of materials in the healthcare sector is crucial to avoid interruptions in the treatment of hospitalized patients, especially when demand is unpredictable and based on criteria of criticality, urgency and clinical status. In complex hospital environments with high-cost materials, demand forecasting becomes essential. This study aimed to compare demand forecast models for medicines used in the urgency and emergency sector of a private hospital in the Agreste Pernambucano. The methodology involves the selection of items and data collection using the company's information system. The ABC analysis identified 27 highly relevant drugs, and different models were tested, including experience-based parameters and hyperparameter optimization. The forecasts covered the period from January to November 2023. The results indicated the Holt-Winters Additive model as most suitable for 21 medications, Holt-Winters Multiplicative for 3, and ARIMA for the others, standing out for its precision. This study strengthens decision-making in the management of medication stocks, improving demand management and ensuring continuous treatments for patients.