Counterfactual Case Research Articles

The right to be human and human rights: Maslow, McCarthyism and the death of humanist theories of management

This article is constructed around the counterfactual of Abraham Maslow being made to testify before a McCarthy-type investigation in the US Cold War era.We set out the extent to which Maslow was, factually, engaged with the internal US Cold War, and note his surveillance by the FBI. This lends plausibility to our counterfactual case: there were episodes in Maslow’s life and work which rendered him vulnerable to McCarthyite inquisition.Two sets of consequences for humanism in management history of this initial counterfactual event are explored, depending on whether he would or would not have testified. Concluding, we argue that while we counterfactualize Maslow’s life, we cannot logically do so for Maslow’s hierarchy. That hierarchy’s deceitfulness is revealed by its naturalization of a narrative of sequential social/individual betterment, in which the factual social evil of McCarthyism is unrepresentable.

Carbon leakage from unilateral Environmental Tax Reforms in Europe, 1995–2005

Studies of the effects of the Kyoto Protocol have shown carbon leakage (typically from tax and permit schemes with lump-sum revenues recycling) to be in the range of 5–20% using static Computable General Equilibrium models. However, in practice, researchers have found that carbon leakage from the implementation of the EU ETS is unlikely to be substantial because transport costs, local market conditions, product variety and incomplete information all tend to favour local production. This study investigates potential carbon leakage from six EU Member States (MSs) that implemented Environmental Tax Reform (ETRs) unilaterally over the period 1995–2005. The study uses the large-scale multisectoral integrated energy–environment–economy (E3) model of 27 European countries, energy–environment–economy model of Europe (E3ME), to undertake a dynamic comparative analysis to assess any carbon leakage effects over the longer term 1995–2012. A counterfactual Reference case is constructed, assuming that the six countries did not introduce ETRs; then alternative scenarios are developed to assess the effects of the ETRs, including effects on CO 2 emissions for the EU25 economies. Most MSs recorded a reduction in CO 2 emissions when comparing the Baseline case to the Reference case. The results show that carbon leakage is very small and in some cases negative, due to technological spillover effects.

Patent disclosure requirements and benefit sharing: A counterfactual case of Morocco's argan oil

This article uses the seemingly promising case of Morocco's argan oil to assess the value of patent disclosure requirements (PDRs) as a policy instrument aimed at improving the sharing of biodiversity benefits. After introducing the disclosure requirements debate and discussing relevant features of the argan oil case, I construct a simple counterfactual by asking: “How would PDRs have changed benefit sharing in the argan oil case?” From this case, three practical considerations emerge that shed a realistic, if cautious, light on the marginal value of PDRs as a benefit sharing mechanism: (1) PDRs require an accompanying national biodiversity regime but their relative value is inversely proportional to regime strength (2) PDRs should be assessed based on the additional compliance incentives they provide and median, not blockbuster, patent values and (3) the alternative to no PDRs and no regime is not zero benefits. While these considerations are inherently country-specific, PDRs should generally be assessed at the margin rather than in vague conceptual and aggregate ways.

Social Pacts as Coalitions of the Weak and Moderate: Ireland, Italy and South Korea in Comparative Perspective

This article examines the emergence and institutionalization of social pacts in Ireland, Italy and South Korea. It argues that pacts emerge as deals between a weak government faced with a political–economic crisis and the more moderate sections of the trade union movement, and are institutionalized when (and if) organized employers come to support them fully. The unions become strategically committed to a social pact if the moderate factions prevail over the radical. Decision-making rules bringing the preferences of the rank-and-file to bear on the process of organizational decision-making seem to help the moderate union factions. The robustness of the analysis is tested by examining briefly a number of counterfactual cases.

A cost-benefit assessment of wholesale electricity restructuring and competition in New England

We conduct a social cost-benefit analysis of wholesale electricity market restructuring and competition in New England. A counter-factual investment path is formulated which characterizes how the wholesale power system might have evolved in New England under continued regulation. The investment and operating costs of the counter-factual case are compared with a projected evolution of actual developments under restructuring and wholesale competition. An important contributor to restructuring benefits is improved operation of nuclear plants divested from incumbent owners under restructuring and transferred to more experienced owners. We estimate net benefits over the 18-year analysis period of about 2% of wholesale costs.

Brand development: institutional constraints on Chinese businesses

PurposeThis paper addresses the reasons why Chinese businesses have long been identified as subordinate to world‐class brand owners; why “global” own brand developments are considered to be beyond their competence.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, we use an institutional perspective to examine the difficulties faced by Chinese firms in own brand development, using empirical data derived from a research project into the business strategies of Hong Kong firms, and contrasting these with the case of what is one of China's most successful foreign ventures, Haier.FindingsThe familial form appears to be transforming, due to the employment of a growing stratum of professional middle managers and Chinese family business firms appear to be developing into fully functionally integrated hierarchies capable of product and market development of own branded products. Three institutional supports make this possible. First, the development of parts of the People's Republic of China (PRC) into a quasi‐market economy created a regionally close and large market. Second, technology transfers from leading overseas consumer product brand owners’ supported the development of more sophisticated products and firm capabilities. Third, a steady supply of skilled graduates from Hong Kong and the mainland enabled firms to move further up the value chain and exert more control over their manufacturing and related activities. To go truly global, however, more is required: social capital that connects the firm to the local and national party elites, something that mainland firms may find easier than those from Hong Kong.Research limitations/implicationsGaining the data meant negotiating access through young professional managers now emerging from Hong Kong universities and was achieved through personal contacts; thus the sample is a small four‐case study. The counterfactual case of Haier is derived not from original research but from website material.Practical implicationsSuccessful original equipment manufacturing business that goes global will, in addition to the institutional supports identified in the Hong Kong cases, also require elite patronage, social capital and political support.Originality/valueThe paper is of value to managers and consultants interested in international business in China.

From low-conflict polity to democratic civil peace: Explaining Zambian exceptionalism

An absence of civil war and other significant sub-state violence makes Zambia an exceptional although not unique case in central-southern Africa. The literature devoted to explaining civil war has grown dramatically in recent years, but while it pays much attention to sub-Saharan Africa only rarely does it investigate counterfactual cases like Zambia. Similarly the growing field of research into post-conflict reconstruction fails to capture the distinct features of persistently low-conflict situations where many of the predisposing conditions for violent conflict might seem to be present. This paper examines Zambia’s experience against a background of general theories that try to explain conflict. It is an “interpretative case study”. The paper proceeds by substantiating Zambia’s claim to a relatively peaceful record and introduces ideas of conflict and conflict theories, before arguing that no single general theory dwelling on just one primary “cause” will suffice to explain Zambian exceptionalism. The precise mix of arguments differs for each one Zambia’s three republican eras, as the potential threats to peace have themselves evolved over the period since independence. The paper’s main theoretical claim is that over time the explanation is both multi-layered and dynamic. That said, certain features do stand out, most notably an inherited political culture that is predisposed against the violent resolution of conflict and continues to insulate the country against social and economic traumas and democratic shortcomings.

Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy in Japan, 2003-04

This paper examines the rationale behind the massive increase in Japanese foreign exchange market intervention operations in 2003-04, and evaluates its effectiveness both in limiting yen exchange rate appreciation and influencing the direction of monetary policy. The two main questions addressed in this study are: Was the intervention effective in slowing exchange rate appreciation compared to a counterfactual case with no intervention? And, has intervention on such a large scale authorized by the Ministry of Finance been able to directly influence liquidity creation or indirectly influence the stance of Bank of Japan policy?

Foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy in Japan, 2003–04

This article examines the rationale behind the massive increase in Japanese foreign exchange market intervention operations in 2003-04, and evaluates its effectiveness both in limiting yen exchange rate appreciation and influencing the direction of monetary policy. The two main questions addressed in this study are: Was the intervention effective in slowing exchange rate appreciation compared to a counterfactual case with no intervention? And, has intervention on such a large scale authorized by the Ministry of Finance been able to directly influence liquidity creation or indirectly influence the stance of Bank of Japan policy?

MetaphysicsZ.l1.1036b28: αἰσθητόν or αἰσθητικόν?

MetaphysicsZ.ll has in recent years received considerable attention, because of its importance for the exposition of Aristotle's psychology, which for some time now has been an immensely popular topic among Aristotelian scholars. Z.ll has proved contentious, however, especially over its statement of Aristotle's criticism of Socrates the Younger, who was wont to make a certain ‘comparison’ in the case of animals. Virtually nothing is known about this Socrates the Younger, nor is it known exactly what ‘comparison’ he made with animals. But, as most interpreters suppose from the context of Z. 11, his comparison certainly had much in common with that made by ‘some', who argue that natural objects, like man, are comparable to geometrical figures, like the circle, with respect to their relationship to their matter (1036b7–12). Just as the physical matter of circles, such as bronze, stone, and the like, are no part of the essence of the circle, so too the physical matter of man—flesh and bones—is no part of the essence of man. This comparison may hold true, even if, unlike circles, man is in fact found only in a single sort of matter, because the case of man may be like the counterfactual case in which all circles happen to be made of bronze. The bronze would still not belong to the essence of the circle; it would just be difficult psychologically to separate circularity from bronze (1036a31-b7).

The United States and Cuba: Future security issues

The purpose of this highly speculative article is to assess a broad range of possible developments in Cuba over the next five to seven years that could directly and adversely affect U.S. interests. By definition, therefore, it does not provide equal treatment to more optimistic and, salubrious scenarios. A key assumption is that the Cuban economy will not sustain a strong rebound to high levels of growth. Specific observations about how security challenges might impact certain U.S. government activities are also included according to the article’s terms of reference. No attempt is made to assign numerical or other probabilities to the counterfactual cases discussed. Finally, the future time frame examined includes treatments of a continuation of Fidel Castro's regime as well as the emergence of one or more successor governments.

Pitfalls of debt reduction: a counterfactual case study of Zambia during the early 1990s

Is debt reduction a gift to future generations? The answer depends upon how indebted governments use the extra room for manoeuvre it confers upon them. The paper explores this issue through a historical counterfactual case study. In 1991 a new Zambian government was democratically elected on a reform platform that corresponded closely to donor/creditor prescriptions. The paper casts doubt on whether more substantial debt reduction at that time would have improved long-term prospects for the Zambian economy, increased public health and education spending, or strengthened the government's political accountability. This suggests, in turn, that it would probably have done little to improve prospects for future generations of Zambians. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The impact of the great emigration on the Swedish economy

In the half-century before 1914 wages in Sweden advanced from below the West European average to being at a level with those in Britain. This remarkable record has seldom been addressed, but the very rapid concurrent Swedish economic growth is well known. The present article argues that the increase in wages was not only due to industrialisation, but that another major factor was the trans-Atlantic emigration, which drained the supply of labour. Central to the argument is that this effect of emigration interacted with. a structural change within the Swedish economy. The traditional export industries faced stiffening competition, and could not afford the higher wages. But the newly emerging branches of industry relied on modern technology, could pay their workers more, and grew. The article explores factors of demand and supply in the Swedish labour market, and on the basis ofd~ta at the county level the emigration elasticity of growth in daywages is estimated. A tentative counterfactual case confirms that emigration was a major factor in the elevation of wages in Sweden.

Children's use of counterfactual thinking in causal reasoning

Research on children's causal thinking has emphasized the perception of temporal and spatial contiguity between cause and effect. However, our causal judgements often involve a contrast between a perceived sequence (A, then B) and a counterfactual case (in the absence of A, then not B). In three experiments, children's capacity for such counterfactual thinking was assessed. In Experiment 1, children aged 3–5 years observed a sequence such as A causing B. Subsequently, they replied quite accurately to a question about a counterfactual sequence, for example: “What if A had not occurred, then B or not B?”. In Experiment 2, children were asked about two counterfactual antecedents, one that would not have caused B, and one that (like the actual antecedent) would also have caused B. Children differentiated between the two types of antecedent. Finally, in Experiment 3, children heard stories in which the protagonist chose a course of action that led to a minor mishap (e.g., drawing with a black pen and getting inky fingers), having rejected an option that would have prevented it in experimental stories (e.g., using a pencil) or an option that would have led to an equivalent outcome in control stories (e.g., using a blue pen). Children aged 3 and 4 years often cited the failure to adopt another course of action as the cause of the mishap and, particularly in experimental stories, they focused on the rejection of the alternative option. Children's use of counterfactual thinking is discussed in relation to contemporary accounts of causal reasoning.

The University and Economic Development: The Case of Johns Hopkins University and Baltimore

Although there are many examples of the role that universities might play in fostering regional economic development, this article considers a counterfactual case. The presence of a prominent research university provides no guarantee that an area's economic development potential is enhanced. Using an innovation process model as a framework, the author studies the relationship between Johns Hopkins University and the Baltimore metropolitan area. This provides an opportunity to consider the other factors that might enhance the ability of an area to capitalize on the benefits that proximity to a research university may provide.

PREPARING THE GROUND FOR MEDIATION: FOOTHILLS REVISITED

Recognizing fertile ground and preparing ground not yet ready is an essential skill of an effective intervenor. This sequence of diagnosis and action is studied in a theoretical framework in which mediators examine and alter four classes of disputants' perceptions. These classes are (1) the available set of actions, (2) the class of possible consequences, (3) the likelihoods of uncertain events and consequences of actions, and (4) preferences over consequences. Denver's increasing demand for water led to the Foothills environmental dispute in 1977. This dispute featured various forms of third party intervention. U.S. Representative Patricia Schroeder's failure to mediate the Foothills conflict, and U.S. Representative Timothy Wirth's success, are compared in terms of the disputants' key beliefs affected by the two self‐appointed intervenors' actions. Using the technique of counterfactual case analysis, an exploration is made of a range of possible timing and ground preparation decisions. Although the particular circumstances of any dispute play a key role in its resolution, the proposed perspective extracts features that are general and therefore transferable to other contexts, thereby enabling mediators to belter develop, transmit, and apply intervention skills.