Convective Bursts Research Articles

Mesoscale cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific Ocean during TPARC

ABSTRACTThree cases of mesoscale marine cyclogenesis over the subtropics of the Western Pacific Ocean are investigated. Each case occurred during the THORPEX Pacific Asia Regional Campaign and Tropical Cyclone Structure (TCS-08) field phases in 2008. Each cyclone developed from remnants of disturbances that earlier showed potential for tropical cyclogenesis within the tropics. Two of the cyclones produced gale-force surface winds, and one, designated as a tropical cyclone, resulted in a significant coastal storm over eastern Japan. Development was initiated by a burst of organized mesoscale convection that consolidated and intensified the surface cyclonic circulation over a period of 12–24 h. Upper-tropospheric potential vorticity anomalies modulated the vertical wind shear that, in turn, influenced the periods of cyclone intensification and weakening. Weak baroclinicity associated with vertical shear was also deemed important in organizing mesoscale ascent and the convection outbreaks. The remnant tropical disturbances contributed exceptional water vapour content to higher latitudes that led to strong diabatic heating, and the tropical remnants contributed vorticity that was the seed of the development in the subtropics. Predictability of these events more than three days in advance appears to be minimal.

Genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010) within an African Easterly Wave: Low-Level Vortices and Upper-Level Warming

Abstract While a robust theoretical framework for tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) within African easterly waves (AEWs) has recently been developed, little work explores the development of low-level meso-β-scale vortices (LLVs) and a meso-α-scale surface low in relation to deep convection and upper-tropospheric warming. In this study, the development of an LLV into Hurricane Julia (2010) is shown through a high-resolution model simulation with the finest grid size of 1 km. The results presented expand upon the connections between LLVs and the AEW presented in previous studies while demonstrating the importance of upper-tropospheric warming for TCG. It is found that the significant intensification phase of Hurricane Julia is triggered by the pronounced upper-tropospheric warming associated with organized deep convection. The warming is able to intensify and expand during TCG owing to formation of a storm-scale outflow beyond the Rossby radius of deformation. Results confirm previous ideas by demonstrating that the intersection of the AEW's trough axis and critical latitude is a preferred location for TCG, while supplementing such work by illustrating the importance of upper-tropospheric warming and meso-α-scale surface pressure falls during TCG. It is shown that the meso-β-scale surface low enhances boundary layer convergence and aids in the bottom-up vorticity development of the meso-β-scale LLV. The upper-level warming is attributed to heating within convective bursts at earlier TCG stages while compensating subsidence warming becomes more prevalent once a mesoscale convective system develops.

Airborne Doppler Observations of the Inner-Core Structural Differences between Intensifying and Steady-State Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Differences in the inner-core structure of intensifying [IN; intensity increase of at least 20 kt (24 h)−1, where 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1] and steady-state [SS; intensity remaining between ±10 kt (24 h)−1] tropical cyclones (TCs) are examined using composites of airborne Doppler observations collected from NOAA P-3 aircraft missions. The IN dataset contains 40 eyewall passes from 14 separate missions, while the SS dataset contains 53 eyewall passes from 14 separate missions. Intensifying TCs have a ringlike vorticity structure inside the radius of maximum wind (RMW); lower vorticity in the outer core; a deeper, stronger inflow layer; and stronger axisymmetric eyewall upward motion compared with steady-state TCs. There is little difference in the vortex tilt between 2 and 7 km, and both IN and SS TCs show an eyewall precipitation and updraft asymmetry whose maxima are located in the downshear and downshear-left region. The azimuthal coverage of eyewall and outer-core precipitation is greater for IN TCs. There is little difference in the distribution of downdrafts and weak to moderate updrafts in the eyewall. The primary difference is seen at the high end of the vertical velocity spectrum, where IN TCs have a larger number of convective bursts. These bursts accomplish more vertical mass flux, but they compose such a small portion of the total vertical velocity distribution that there is little difference in the shape of the net mass flux profile. The radial location of convective bursts for IN TCs is preferentially located inside the RMW, where the axisymmetric vorticity is generally higher, whereas for SS TCs the bursts are located outside the RMW.

The role of a convective burst in the genesis of typhoon Hagupit (2008)

[1] This study explores the effects of the mesoscale descent associated with a convective burst during the genesis of typhoon Hagupit (2008), based on a high-resolution cloud-resolving numerical simulation. The simulation result captures the synoptic-scale circulation surrounding the pre-Hagupit depression and the evolution of the storm. A burst of intense deep convection occurs about 1 day before the genesis of Hagupit. After the convective burst, temperature deviation near the center of the depression increases in the lower troposphere. This warming contributes to a drop in the central pressure of the depression and hence to the beginning of the so-called system-scale intensification. In addition, the low-level warming tends to inhibit vertical motion by acting as a lid. Horizontal flow is therefore dominant in the boundary layer; thereby, the air can efficiently gain energy from the sea surface. Increased energy in the boundary layer air feeds intense deep convection near the center of the depression just before the genesis time. These results are consistent with a previous observational study. Tangential momentum budget analysis demonstrates that, just before the genesis time, actual tendency of tangential velocity has larger values throughout the depth of the troposphere, indicating the importance of the deep-layer spin-up of the depression. These large values are attributed to the upward transport of tangential momentum by intense deep convection. In contrast, when the convective burst occurs about 1 day before the genesis time, positive actual tendency is confined to the lower troposphere because of smaller upward transport of tangential momentum.

Genesis of the South Asian High and Its Impact on the Asian Summer Monsoon Onset

AbstractThe formation of the South Asian high (SAH) in spring and its impacts on the Asian summer monsoon onset are studied using daily 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data together with a climate-mean composite technique and potential vorticity–diabatic heating (PV–Q) analysis. Results demonstrate that, about 2 weeks before the Asian summer monsoon onset, a burst of convection over the southern Philippines produces a negative vorticity source to its north. The SAH in the upper troposphere over the South China Sea is then generated as an atmospheric response to this negative vorticity forcing with the streamline field manifesting a Gill-type pattern. Afterward, the persistent rainfall over the northern Indochinese peninsula causes the SAH to move westward toward the peninsula. Consequently, a trumpet-shaped flow field is formed to its southwest, resulting in divergence pumping and atmospheric ascent just over the southeastern Bay of Bengal (BOB).Near the surface, as a surface anticyclone is formed over the northern BOB, an SST warm pool is generated in the central–eastern BOB. This, together with SAH pumping, triggers the formation of a monsoon onset vortex (MOV) with strong surface southwesterly developed over the BOB. Enhanced air–sea interaction promotes the further development and northward migration of the MOV. Consequently, the wintertime zonal-orientated subtropical anticyclone belt in the lower troposphere splits, abundant water vapor is transported directly from the BOB to the subtropical continent, and heavy rainfall ensues; the atmospheric circulation changes from winter to summer conditions over the BOB and Asian summer monsoon onset occurs.

Convective Bursts, Downdraft Cooling, and Boundary Layer Recovery in a Sheared Tropical Storm

Abstract Tropical Storm Edouard (2002) experienced episodic outbreaks of convection downshear within the storm core in the presence of 11–15 m s−1 of ambient vertical wind shear. These outbreaks lasted 2–6 h and were followed by long periods with no deep convection. Flights from U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft within the boundary layer were used to investigate the cause of one such oscillation. Low equivalent potential temperature θe air filled the boundary layer as convection ceased, creating a 4–6-K deficit in θe within the convective region. Soundings within 110 km of the center were supportive of convective downdrafts, with midlevel relative humidity below 15% and large downdraft CAPE. Deep convection ceased within 75 km of the center for more than 8 h. Tangential velocity reached hurricane force locally during the convective outbreak, then became nearly symmetric after convection stopped, arguably as a result of axisymmetrization, and the storm weakened. Nevertheless, the corresponding lack of convective downdrafts during this period allowed surface heat and moisture fluxes to produce substantial increases in boundary layer entropy. A new burst of convection followed. Consistent with recent papers it is argued that tropical cyclone intensification and decay can be understood as a competition between surface heat and moisture fluxes (“fuel”) and low-entropy downdrafts into the boundary layer (“antifuel”).

Comparing the Convective Structure and Microphysics in Two Sahelian Mesoscale Convective Systems: Radar Observations and CRM Simulations

Abstract Two mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) observed during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) experiment are simulated using the three-dimensional (3D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model. This study was undertaken to determine the performance of the cloud-resolving model in representing distinct convective and microphysical differences between the two MCSs over a tropical continental location. Simulations are performed using 1-km horizontal grid spacing, a lower limit on current embedded cloud-resolving models within a global multiscale modeling framework. Simulated system convective structure and microphysics are compared to radar observations using contoured frequency-by-altitude diagrams (CFADs), calculated ice and water mass, and identified hydrometeor variables. Vertical distributions of ice hydrometeors indicate underestimation at the mid- and upper levels, partially due to the inability of the model to produce adequate system heights. The abundance of high-reflectivity values below and near the melting level in the simulation led to a broadening of the CFAD distributions. Observed vertical reflectivity profiles show that high reflectivity is present at greater heights than the simulations produced, thought to be a result of using a single-moment microphysics scheme. Relative trends in the population of simulated hydrometeors are in agreement with observations, though a secondary convective burst is not well represented. Despite these biases, the radar-observed differences between the two cases are noticeable in the simulations as well, suggesting that the model has some skill in capturing observed differences between the two MCSs.

On the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Wilma (2005). Part II: Convective Bursts and the Upper-Level Warm Core

Abstract Previous studies have focused mostly on the roles of environmental factors in the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) because of the lack of high-resolution data in inner-core regions. In this study, the RI of TCs is examined by analyzing the relationship between an upper-level warm core, convective bursts (CBs), sea surface temperature (SST), and surface pressure falls from 72-h cloud-permitting predictions of Hurricane Wilma (2005) with the finest grid size of 1 km. Results show that both the upper-level inertial stability increases and static stability decreases sharply 2–3 h prior to RI, and that the formation of an upper-level warm core, from the subsidence of stratospheric air associated with the detrainment of CBs, coincides with the onset of RI. It is found that the development of CBs precedes RI, but most subsidence warming radiates away by gravity waves and storm-relative flows. In contrast, many fewer CBs occur during RI, but more subsidence warming contributes to the balanced upper-level cyclonic circulation in the warm-core (as intense as 20°C) region. Furthermore, considerable CB activity can still take place in the outer eyewall as the storm weakens during its eyewall replacement. A sensitivity simulation, in which SSTs are reduced by 1°C, shows pronounced reductions in the upper-level warm-core intensity and CB activity. It is concluded that significant CB activity in the inner-core regions is an important ingredient in generating the upper-level warm core that is hydrostatically more efficient for the RI of TCs, given all of the other favorable environmental conditions.

Latent Heating and Cooling Rates in Developing and Nondeveloping Tropical Disturbances during TCS-08: TRMM PR versus ELDORA Retrievals*

Abstract Unique sets of Electra Doppler Radar (ELDORA) observations in both developing and nondeveloping tropical disturbances in the western North Pacific are used to retrieve latent heating and cooling rates. During the reintensification of Sinlaku, maximum heating rates of about 80 K h−1 are diagnosed in the upper troposphere in the region of a strong updraft and maximum cooling rates of about −45 K h−1 are diagnosed in the lower troposphere in the region of a strong convective-scale downdraft. The southern convective burst in the pre-Nuri mission had a lower-tropospheric maximum in latent heating that was a more favorable condition for tropical cyclone formation than was the upper-tropospheric maximum in heating and the lower-tropospheric maximum in cooling in the northern convective burst. Two nondeveloping tropical disturbances had deeper layers of more uniform heating and of cooling rates, and some evidence of more shallow cloud tops, that distinguished them from the developing cases. Although the Shige et al. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) algorithm was only intended to be applied over large areas on longer time scales, the PR-derived latent heating profiles were compared with the ELDORA-derived profiles to reveal important mesoscale effects. Because all six cases indicated near-zero cooling rates, a new TRMM PR algorithm should be developed that would include the effects of saturated convective-scale downdrafts in tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Production of a legacy TRMM PR dataset with this improvement would be useful for diagnosing tropical cyclone formation dating back to 1998, and for specifying initial and validation conditions for numerical models in the tropics.

Vertical Velocity and Microphysical Distributions Related to Rapid Intensification in a Simulation of Hurricane Dennis (2005)

Abstract A 1-km Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation of Hurricane Dennis was used to identify precursors in vertical velocity and latent heating distributions to rapid intensification (RI). Although the observed structure qualitatively replicated data obtained during P-3 and Earth Resources-2 (ER-2) flights, the simulated reflectivity was overestimated. During the 6 h preceding RI, defined as 0000 UTC 8 July 2005 close to the time of simulated maximum central pressure deepening, the asymmetric convection transformed into an eyewall with the maximum 10-m wind speed increasing by 16 m s−1. Contour by frequency altitude diagrams showed unique changes in the breadth of simulated vertical velocity (w) distributions before and after RI. Outliers of w distributions at 14 km preceded RI onset, whereas the increase in w outliers at 6 km lagged it. Prior to RI there was an increase in the upward flux of hydrometeors between 10 and 15 km, with increased contributions from w > 6 m s−1. Increases in lower-level updraft airmass fluxes did not lead RI, but the 14-km positive w outliers were better indicators of RI onset than positive w averages. The area of convective bursts did not strongly increase before RI, but it continually increased after RI. Latent heating was dominated by contributions from w < 2 m s−1, meaning increases in positive w outliers before RI did not cause the increase in latent heating seen during RI. The location of convective bursts and outliers of positive and negative w distributions contracted toward the eye as the simulated Dennis intensified.

Determining Key Model Parameters of Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997) Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

Abstract In this work the authors determine key model parameters for rapidly intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997) using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The approach is to utilize the EnKF as a tool only to estimate the parameter values of the model for a particular dataset. The assimilation is performed using dual-Doppler radar observations obtained during the period of rapid intensification of Hurricane Guillermo. A unique aspect of Guillermo was that during the period of radar observations strong convective bursts, attributable to wind shear, formed primarily within the eastern semicircle of the eyewall. To reproduce this observed structure within a hurricane model, background wind shear of some magnitude must be specified and turbulence and surface parameters appropriately specified so that the impact of the shear on the simulated hurricane vortex can be realized. To identify the complex nonlinear interactions induced by changes in these parameters, an ensemble of model simulations have been conducted in which individual members were formulated by sampling the parameters within a certain range via a Latin hypercube approach. The ensemble and the data, derived latent heat and horizontal winds from the dual-Doppler radar observations, are utilized in the EnKF to obtain varying estimates of the model parameters. The parameters are estimated at each time instance, and a final parameter value is obtained by computing the average over time. Individual simulations were conducted using the estimates, with the simulation using latent heat parameter estimates producing the lowest overall model forecast error.

The effect of meteorology on air pollution in Moscow during the summer episodes of 2010

Relations between short-term variations in the concentrations of aerosol (PM10) and carbon monoxide (CO) and meteorological characteristics are considered for the episodes of severe atmospheric pollution in the region of Moscow in the summer of 2010. The assumption is made and substantiated that the observed (in late June) severe aerosol pollution of the atmosphere over Moscow was caused by air masses arrived from soil-drought regions of southern Russia. In August, during the episodes of advection of forest-fire products, the maximum surface concentrations of pollutants were observed in Moscow mainly at 11:00–12:00 under a convective burst into the atmospheric boundary layer and at night in the presence of local wind-velocity maxima or low-level jet streams within the inversion layer. On the basis of results from an analysis of these air-pollution episodes before and after fires, it is concluded that the shearing instability of wind velocity favors the surface-air purification under ordinary conditions and an increase in the surface concentrations of pollutants during their advection (long-range transport, natural-fire plumes, etc.). It is shown that the pollution of the air basin over the megapolis with biomass-combustion products in 2010 led to an increase in the thermal stability of the atmospheric surface layer and in the duration of radiation inversions, as well as to an attenuation of the processes of purification in the urban heat island.

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensity to Ventilation in an Axisymmetric Model

Abstract The sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to ventilation of cooler, drier air into the inner core is examined using an axisymmetric tropical cyclone model with parameterized ventilation. Sufficiently strong ventilation induces cooling of the upper-level warm core, a shift in the secondary circulation radially outward, and a decrease in the simulated intensity. Increasing the strength of the ventilation and placing the ventilation at middle to lower levels results in a greater decrease in the quasi-steady intensity, whereas upper-level ventilation has little effect on the intensity. For strong ventilation, an oscillatory intensity regime materializes and is tied to transient convective bursts and strong downdrafts into the boundary layer. The sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to ventilation can be viewed in the context of the mechanical efficiency of the inner core or a modified thermal wind relation. In the former, ventilation decreases the mechanical efficiency, as the generation of available potential energy is wasted by entropy mixing above the boundary layer. In the latter, ventilation weakens the eyewall entropy front, resulting in a decrease in the intensity by thermal wind arguments. The experiments also support the existence of a threshold ventilation beyond which a tropical cyclone cannot be maintained. Downdrafts overwhelm surface fluxes, leading to a precipitous drop in intensity and a severe degradation of structure in such a scenario. For a given amount of ventilation below the threshold, there exists a minimum initial intensity necessary for intensification to the quasi-steady intensity.

On the necessary conditions for bursts of convection within the rapidly rotating cylindrical annulus

Zonal flows are often found in rotating convective systems. Not only are these jet-flows driven by the convection, they can also have a profound effect on the nature of the convection. In this work the cylindrical annulus geometry is exploited in order to perform nonlinear simulations seeking to produce strong zonal flows and multiple jets. The parameter regime is extended to Prandtl numbers that are not unity. Multiple jets are found to be spaced according to a Rhines scaling based on the zonal flow speed, not the convective velocity speed. Under certain conditions the nonlinear convection appears in quasi-periodic bursts. A mean field stability analysis is performed around a basic state containing both the zonal flow and the mean temperature gradient found from the nonlinear simulations. The convective growth rates are found to fluctuate with both of these mean quantities suggesting that both are necessary in order for the bursting phenomenon to occur.

CONVECTIVE BURSTS AND THE COUPLING OF SATURN'S EQUATORIAL STORMS AND INTERIOR ROTATION

Temporal variations of Saturn's equatorial jet and magnetic field hint at rich dynamics coupling the atmosphere and the deep interior. However, it has been assumed that rotation of the interior dynamo must be steady over tens of years of modern observations. Here we use a numerical convection model and scaling estimates to show how equatorial convective bursts can transfer angular momentum to the deeper interior. The numerical model allows angular momentum transfer between a fluid outer spherical shell and a rigid inner sphere. Convection drives a prograde equatorial jet exhibiting quasiperiodic bursts that fill the equatorial volume outside the tangent cylinder. For each burst strong changes in the equatorial surface velocity are associated with retrograde torque on the inner sphere. Our results suggest that Saturn's Great White Spot, a giant storm that was observed to fill the equatorial region in 1990, could mobilize a volume of fluid carrying roughly 15% of Saturn's moment of inertia. Conservation of angular momentum then implies that a 20% change in the equatorial jet angular velocity could change the average interior rotation rate by about 0.1%-roughly an order of magnitude less than the apparent rotation rate changes associated with Saturn's kilometric radio (SKR) signal. However,more » if the SKR signal originates outside the liquid metal core in a 'planetary tachocline' that separates the layer of fast zonal flow from the magnetically controlled and slowly convecting deep interior, then convective bursts can provide a possible mechanism for the observed {approx}1% SKR changes.« less

Importance of the upper‐level warm core in the rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone

In this study, the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclone is examined using a 72‐h cloud‐permitting prediction of Hurricane Wilma (2005) with a record‐breaking intensity of 882 hPa. Results show the formation of an upper‐level warm core from the descending air of stratospheric origin in the eye, which coincides with the onset of RI; it reaches the peak amplitude of more than 18°C from its initial conditions at the time of peak intensity. The descending air is associated with the detrainment of convective bursts in the eyewall, and it appears as (perturbation) cyclonic radial inflows above the upper outflow layer and causes the subsidence warming below. We hypothesize that the upper divergent outflow layer favors the generation of a warm core by protecting it from ventilation by environmental flows. Use of the hydrostatic equation shows that the warm core of stratospheric origin contributes more than twice as much as the lower‐level warm column to the pressure change at the peak intensity of Wilma. Results suggest that more attention be paid to the magnitude of storm‐relative flows and vertical wind shear in the upper troposphere, rather than just vertical shear in the typical 850–200 hPa layer, in order to reasonably predict the RI of tropical cyclones.

How much tropical cyclone intensification can result from the energy released inside of a convective burst?

[1] This study proposes a framework for estimating how much tropical cyclone intensification could result from the amount of energy released inside of a convective burst. A convective burst is a sequence of vigorous convective cells occupying one portion of a tropical cyclone's eyewall for approximately 9 to 24 h. On the basis of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite radar observations and previous modeling studies, a typical convective burst may release in 12 h an extra 6 × 1017 J of latent heat. TRMM observations suggest that this extra energy represents an increase of 25% or more in the rate that the eyewall releases latent heat prior to the convective burst. Previous studies suggest that 4.5% to 11% of this extra latent heat may be transformed, after a lag of several hours, into an increase in the kinetic energy of the tropical cyclone's inner-core tangential wind. On the basis of the H*wind analysis of aircraft and dropsonde observations, an increase in kinetic energy of this magnitude may be associated with an intensification of 9–16 m s−1 (17–31 kt) in a tropical cyclone's maximum surface wind. This conservative estimate takes into account the increase in ocean surface friction during the period of intensification and assumes that the associated increase in ocean surface enthalpy flux does not counteract any of the frictional loss. Despite sources of uncertainty, it still appears that significant intensification is possible from the amount of energy released inside of a typical convective burst.

Numerical simulation of a torrential rain event in the northeast of Huaihe Basin. Part II: Instability conditions and the mechanism of intensification and maintenance

Based on the simulation displayed in Part I of this study, the intensification and maintenance, the relationship between deep moist mesoscale convective system (DMMCS) and instability, convective vorticity vector (CVV) are analyzed in the present paper. Results show that: (1) middle-low level convective instability is the precondition of the occurrence of DMMCS. The convergence and merger enhancement of convection cells, as well as the convective instability energy transporting from the left-front of typhoon play an essential role in the re-establishment and enhancement of convective instability. (2) Baroclinic instability and conditional symmetric instability appear not only in the middle-low level, but also are distinct in the middle-upper level of DMMCS. (3) In DMMCS, there is an alternative distribution of inertial instability column and inertial stability column. In the west and south, there are negative CVV columns, which is favorable for the burst of deep moist convection. (4) The strong slantwise convection induced by inertial instability, baroclinic instability, and conditional symmetric instability enhance the upper-level southerly component. Due to the appearance of the compensated downdraft at the low level of south side of DMMCS, the low level southerly intensified, and the enhancement of upper- and low-level cores is in favor of the development of DMMCS, which will be beneficial to the reinforcement and maintenance of inertial instability, baroclinic instability, and conditional symmetric instability. It is a positive feedback process. (5) There is a downshear circulation to the east of rainfall cell. Shallow convections near this cell absorb the vapor and instability energy coming from the south. In the meanwhile, the mesoscale convergence line and meso-β-scale vortex organize and intensify convective cells. In DMMCS, there is an alternative distribution of convergence and divergence columns, and the couple between strong divergence and vorticity columns. They are both conducive to the development of DMMCS, and the instability will be intensified and maintained for its development in depth.

Multiscale Observations of Hurricane Dennis (2005): The Effects of Hot Towers on Rapid Intensification

Abstract A synthesis of remote sensing and in situ observations throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Dennis (2005) during the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment is presented. Measurements from the ER-2 Doppler radar (EDOP), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), airborne radiometer, and flight-level instruments are used to provide a multiscale examination of the storm. The main focus is an episode of deep convective bursts (“hot towers”) occurring during a mature stage of the storm and preceding a period of rapid intensification (11-hPa pressure drop in 1 h 35 min). The vigorous hot towers penetrated to 16-km height, had maximum updrafts of 20 m s−1 at 12–14-km height, and possessed a strong transverse circulation through the core of the convection. Significant downdrafts (maximum of 10–12 m s−1) on the flanks of the updrafts were observed, with their cumulative effects hypothesized to result in the observed increases in the warm core. In one ER-2 overpass, subsidence was transported toward the eye by 15–20 m s−1 inflow occurring over a deep layer (0.5–10 km) coincident with a hot tower. Fourier analysis of the AMSU satellite measurements revealed a large shift in the storm’s warm core structure, from asymmetric to axisymmetric, ∼12 h after the convective bursts began. In addition, flight-level wind calculations of the axisymmetric tangential velocity and inertial stability showed a contraction of the maximum winds and an increase in the stiffness of the vortex, respectively, after the EDOP observations. The multiscale observations presented here reveal unique, ultra-high-resolution details of hot towers and their coupling to the parent vortex, the balanced dynamics of which can be generally explained by the axisymmetrization and efficiency theories.

Initial Development and Genesis of Hurricane Dolly (2008)

Abstract Based on a successful cloud-resolving simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, this study examines key processes that led to the early development of Hurricane Dolly (2008). The initial development of Dolly consisted of three stages: (i) an initial burst of convection; (ii) stratiform development, dry intrusion, and thermodynamic recovery; and (iii) reinvigoration of moist convection and rapid intensification. Advanced diagnosis of the simulation—including the use of vorticity budget analysis, contour frequency analysis diagrams, and two-dimensional spectral decomposition and filtering—suggests that the genesis of Dolly is essentially a “bottom-up” process. The enhancement of the low-level vorticity is mainly ascribed to the stretching effect, which converges the ambient vorticity through stretching enhanced by moist convection. In the rapid intensification stage, smaller-scale positive vorticity anomalies resulting from moist convection are wrapped into the storm center area under the influence of background convergent flow. The convergence and accompanying aggregation of vorticity anomalies project the vorticity into larger scales and finally lead to the spinup of the system-scale vortex. On the other hand, although there is apparent stratiform development in the inner-core areas of incipient storm after the initial burst of convection, little evidence is found to support the genesis of Dolly through downward extension of the midlevel vorticity, a key process in the “top-down” thinking.