Importance of the upper‐level warm core in the rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone

Abstract

In this study, the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclone is examined using a 72‐h cloud‐permitting prediction of Hurricane Wilma (2005) with a record‐breaking intensity of 882 hPa. Results show the formation of an upper‐level warm core from the descending air of stratospheric origin in the eye, which coincides with the onset of RI; it reaches the peak amplitude of more than 18°C from its initial conditions at the time of peak intensity. The descending air is associated with the detrainment of convective bursts in the eyewall, and it appears as (perturbation) cyclonic radial inflows above the upper outflow layer and causes the subsidence warming below. We hypothesize that the upper divergent outflow layer favors the generation of a warm core by protecting it from ventilation by environmental flows. Use of the hydrostatic equation shows that the warm core of stratospheric origin contributes more than twice as much as the lower‐level warm column to the pressure change at the peak intensity of Wilma. Results suggest that more attention be paid to the magnitude of storm‐relative flows and vertical wind shear in the upper troposphere, rather than just vertical shear in the typical 850–200 hPa layer, in order to reasonably predict the RI of tropical cyclones.