Conservative Leaders Research Articles

Estimating Ideal Points of British MPs Through Their Social Media Followership

Abstract Ideal points of MPs in the UK House of Commons (HoC) are characteristically difficult to ascertain due to tight party discipline and strategic voting by opposition members. This research note generates left/right ideal point estimates for 591 British MPs sitting in the HoC as of 22/08/2022, ascertained through their social media followership. Specifically, estimates are derived by conducting correspondence analysis (CA) on MP Twitter (X) follower networks, which are subsequently validated against an expert survey, confirming that these estimates have a high degree of between-party (R2 = 0.93) and within-party (Con: r = 0.84; Lab: r = 0.81) accuracy. The informative value of these estimates is then demonstrated by predicting candidate endorsement in the September 2022 Conservative leadership contest, confirming that an MP's ideal point was a statistically significant predictor of candidate endorsement, with Liz Truss drawing support primarily from the further right of the party.

Conservation Leadership Programme 2024 Team Awards announced

Conservation Leadership Programme 2024 Team Awards announced

Application of the MENTOR model to advance One Health by promoting bat conservation and reducing zoonotic spillover risk

For few taxonomic groups do conservation efforts have such a disproportionate impact on biodiversity and human well-being as they do with bats. Bats face significant conservation challenges that affect their long-term viability, inhibit their ecosystem functions and services, and increase zoonotic spillover risks. Protecting bat populations and their habitats ultimately reduces these conservation threats, helps prevent pandemics, and supports essential ecosystem services. MENTOR-Bat is a fellowship program focused on strengthening technical research, and leadership capacity in the Global South to promote healthy environments where bats and humans can coexist with reduced risks of pathogen transmission. Co-designed by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and Bat Conservation International (BCI), MENTOR-Bat mirrors the One Health framework by featuring a transdisciplinary team of three mentors and nine fellows from Cameroon, Colombia, and Indonesia. Fellows and mentors receive academic and field-based training on bat ecology and conservation, One Health, human dimensions of conservation, behavior change, strategic communications, international policy, adaptive management, project planning, conservation leadership, and public health. Fellows will then design and implement team pilot projects to advance One Health and bat conservation in their respective countries. Program evaluation of MENTOR-Bat is based on Kirkpatrick’s Hierarchy and focuses on measuring the development of established One Health core competences. By incorporating One Health and conservation within its activities, MENTOR-Bat can become a valuable programmatic template for transdisciplinary programming advancing evidence-based strategies for improving the well-being of bats, humans, and the environment.

Shifting from top-down to bottom-up nationalism: an analysis of YouTube speeches from the 2016/17 candlelight revolution in South Korea

ABSTRACT While the ‘top-down’ variant of nationalism is engendered by elites and emphasizes loyalty to the state and ethnic solidarity, little is known about the ‘bottom-up’ variant, which focuses on people’s interest in the state’s and political leaders’ care for the masses. South Korea’s ‘Candlelight Revolution’ of 2016/17 ignited a national protest against the abuse of power by then-President Park Geun-Hye, the unfair distribution of wealth, and changes to Korean culture. This article explores grassroots’ expressions of bottom-up nationalism by analysing YouTube speeches from the Candlelight rallies. Protesters criticized the corruption and abuse of power by Korean leaders, which were seen to perpetuate the structure of injustice for decades. Some aspects of the Korean cultural contexts were politicized by national leaders, such as conservative leaders labelling their critics ‘commies’. By contesting the structure and culture of Korean society, protesters transformed themselves into social actors at the personal level and then called for long-term rather than temporary remedies at the societal level. By espousing ‘calculated nationalism’, protesters illustrated their interest in what they can get from the Korean nation-state, rather than what they can do to the state.

Narrativizing power in times of (many) crises: the case of British conservative leaders

ABSTRACT Before their 2024 bruising defeat, the Conservative Party had been in power for more than a decade, during which it had to deal with many exogeneous and endogenous crises. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have yet managed to win three general elections, making unprecedented gains in 2019. We argue that communication and leadership were key in establishing power relations and, within the theoretical framework of Seeger and Sellnow’s “crisis narratives” and Boin and t’Hart’s “Public leadership in times of crisis”, we propose to analyse critically the main narratives that Conservative Prime Ministers have dwelt on to secure their hold on power.

Stakeholder perceptions of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Marine Protected Area planning process

Establishing Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in international waters is critical for the conservation of marine biodiversity. The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) is a global leader in high seas conservation, having established two international MPAs in Antarctica’s Southern Ocean, as part of a commitment to establish a representative system of MPAs for the CAMLR Convention Area. CCAMLR MPAs are adopted by consensus. However, consensus decision-making has slowed the MPA adoption process, and since 2016 the Commission has been unable to agree and implement further MPAs, which has stalled the development of the circumpolar representative system. The key aim of this study was to identify how features of the planning process contribute to outcomes, problems and solutions. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 18 scientists, policymakers, and expert observers from fisheries and environmental non-government organisations involved in CCAMLR MPA planning, to explore their perceptions (experiences, opinions, impressions) of the planning process. Our results identify four key features that are influential across multiple areas of the CCAMLR MPA planning and decision-making process: i) a lack of common understanding; ii) the influence of historical relationships and legacy in subsequent planning processes; iii) inconsistencies between expectations of and requirements for MPA planning; and iv) the degree to which CCAMLR principles and practices, norms, and values are shared. We demonstrate how these four features may help or hinder the effectiveness of the current planning process. We then make suggestions regarding how the planning process could be adapted to capitalise on these features.

Education4Conservation, an evolving international program and 14-year curriculum of environmental education.

Education4Conservation evolved from an environmental education program in Balikpapan Bay, Indonesian Borneo, after its critical evaluation. The initial goal of the program was to support the development of future conservation leaders who would join the ongoing efforts to conserve proboscis monkeys (Nasalis larvatus) and their coastal forest habitat in Balikpapan Bay. We realized that to achieve this goal, we would need to work with students from the age of 4 years and continue to educate them for many years. We also realized that we needed to focus more on mentoring teachers and incorporating their feedback into the curriculum. The new program, which is in line with the new Indonesian national curriculum (Kurikulum Merdeka), has proved attractive to teachers and has spread from Kalimantan to other Indonesian islands and countries outside Asia. The curriculum continues to improve through regular monthly revisions that incorporate feedback from teachers, while teachers' pedagogical skills have improved through guidance provided by responses to each of their reports. We have been following and supervising participants since the Education4Conservation program began in 2022. Although a preliminary evaluation seems to indicate substantial improvements over the earlier program (in terms of high participation, positive teacher response, improved reporting skills, and increased clarity and applicability of the curriculum), it remains to be seen whether the program ultimately achieves its primary goal to help raise some of the students into conservation leaders.

“We’re not as great as we used to be”: Perceived national status threat and the desire for strong leaders

We examined whether perceived national status threat—i.e., perceiving that one’s country’s status on the international scene is in decline—predicts increased desire for a strong conservative or progressive leader through greater national nostalgia and collective angst. A pilot study on strong leaders’ speeches from the 2017 French presidential election campaign first revealed that both conservative and progressive strong leaders use the status threat narrative, albeit in another form. In four quantitative surveys conducted across France, Malaysia and Chile, we then found that national status threat predicted increased desire for both conservative and progressive strong leaders. In France and Chile, but not Malaysia, the underlying path was contingent on the type of leader, such that nostalgia predicted increased desire for a conservative but not a progressive strong leader. Although correlational, our data suggest that decline narratives might provide a fertile ground for the desire for diverse forms of strong leadership.

Politicization of international aid: Religious responses to criminalizing female genital mutilation in Sudan

International aid to protect women and girls against religiously sanctioned violence in predominantly Muslim countries is prone to politicization and opposition by conservative religious actors. In Sudan religious leaders had varied responses to an internationally funded campaign to criminalize female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) in 2009. In the capital Khartoum, this campaign provoked politicization of aid and counter- mobilization by national conservative religious leaders, while in the eastern town of Gedarif local religious leaders supported criminalization. Based on fieldwork conducted from 2008 to 2018, the study suggests that the power based of religious leaders and their inclusion in, or exclusion from, anti- FGM/C efforts accounted for this differential response. Even when successful, the inclusion of religious leaders as “agents of change” strengthened their power and the role of religion in state and society to levels that may endanger the rights of women and girls.

The Downfall of Boris Johnson: Analysing Patterns of Opinion among Conservative Parliamentarians in the Confidence Motion and Mass Resignations

ABSTRACT This article provides the first systematic analysis of the confidence motion against the Conservative Party leadership of Boris Johnson in June 2022 and the mass ministerial resignations in July. I have constructed a dataset of the parliamentary Conservative Party and used logistic regression to test hypotheses relating to Conservative parliamentarians’ behaviour in the confidence motion and ministerial resignations. My findings demonstrate that the long-running divide within the Conservative Party on Europe was statistically significant in the confidence motion, with MPs who voted leave in the 2016 EU referendum being more likely to have confidence in Johnson. Ministers’ university education was also significant in driving support for Johnson. My research findings contribute to existing academic debates as they show how Conservative MPs’ behaviour in the downfall of Boris Johnson compares with the selection and ejection of other Conservative leaders. I also contribute to emerging discussions on Johnson’s leadership of the Conservative Party within the context of governing degeneration.

‘Let me tell you what I believe’: Narratives, storytelling and ethos building, the case of Tory leaders (2005–2023)

This article proposes a critical narrative analysis of the way recent Conservative leaders have used storytelling to talk about themselves and reinforce their political ethos during the annual party conferences. We will use David Cameron’s transformative tenure as a starting point, as he tried to usher in a new Conservative creed, more compassionate and voluntarily different from Thatcherism. We will then see how his successors have also resorted to narratives to establish a strong political ethos. The main objective of the article is to examine the evolution of the image of the Conservative leader and to assess the role storytelling has played in this important communicational process.

The interplay of social rank perceptions of Trump and Biden and emotions following the U.S. presidential election 2020

ABSTRACT The outcome of the 2020 U.S. election between Trump and Biden evoked strong emotions. In U.S. American (Study 1; N = 405) and German (Study 2; N = 123) samples, we investigated how observers’ group membership (i.e. political orientation) and the social rank attainment of both candidates (i.e. dominance vs. prestige) predicted emotional reactions. Trump was generally perceived as more dominant, and Biden as more prestigious. However, perceptions of social rank attainment differed depending on the observers’ political orientation, either matching or not matching with the leaders (i.e. Republicans and Democrats, respectively). The candidate who did not share the participants’ political orientation was perceived as less prestigious and more dominant and elicited stronger contrastive emotions (i.e. schadenfreude, malicious envy) and weaker assimilative emotions (i.e. happy-for-ness, sympathy, anger), and vice versa. Crucially, dominance and prestige perceptions explained variance in the emotional reactions of more conservative and more liberal participants. Prestige positively predicted assimilative emotions and dominance contrastive emotions. Our work advances theorising by providing evidence that dominance and prestige perceptions contribute to the elicitation of various emotions. Furthermore, it suggests that prestige and dominance are not fixed characteristics of liberal and conservative leaders but depend on the observers’ group membership.

Facebook Campaigning in the 2019 and 2021 Canadian Federal Elections

Canada’s federal elections in 2019 and 2021 produced a similar outcome—a minority Liberal government. These back-to-back elections provide an ideal context to understand trends in digital campaigning strategies and assess how the pandemic influenced campaigns’ use of social media. We examine how the three leaders of the major parties used Facebook in 2019 (<em>n</em> = 712) compared to 2021 (<em>n</em> = 979). The Conservative leader O’Toole posted more frequently than other candidates in 2021, fitting with the equalization theory of digital campaigning. In 2019 and 2021, the incumbent prime minister, Trudeau, received the most user engagement on his Facebook posts despite calling a snap election during a pandemic and less than two years into his mandate. These findings support normalization theories of digital campaigning with evidence of an accumulating incumbent advantage. The Covid-19 pandemic sidelined attention to climate change. We argue that the Liberal government owned both issues; we expected Trudeau to have greater attention to and user engagement for these policy posts. In general, Facebook posts about the pandemic yielded greater user engagement than posts that did not mention the pandemic. Candidates tested new campaign strategies in 2021, particularly making calls to interact with them; these posts yielded higher user engagement than posts that did not include a call to interact. While candidates used new social media campaign strategies, voter turnout declined from 2019 to 2021. These findings have implications for other democratic systems and the future of digital campaigning.

The potential for Indigenous-led conservation in urbanized landscapes in Canada

Indigenous Protected and Conserved Areas (IPCAs) are an important pathway and governance system for area-based conservation led by Indigenous Peoples. While IPCAs have been established across rural and northern regions of Canada, they have received little attention in urbanized landscapes, even though all of Canada’s urban areas coincide with First Nations, Inuit, and Métis territory (and thereby underlying Indigenous jurisdiction) and the majority of Indigenous Peoples in the country live in urban centers. Canada’s federal government is in the process of establishing six new urban national parks and has committed to working with local Indigenous governments and organizations in parks planning. This study examined the potential for strengthening Indigenous participation in urban parks planning, governance, and management, including the establishment of new urban Indigenous Protected and Conserved Areas (UIPCAs). The results of spatial analyses of urban Indigenous territory, a review of relevant domestic and international policy and interviews with local Indigenous conservation leaders illuminate the potential for new forms of urban conservation governance that are grounded in Indigenous rights and responsibilities and reflective of Indigenous knowledge systems and biocultural priorities. However, it remains to be seen how urban Indigenous-led conservation, such as UIPCAs, can fit and operate within proposed government urban conservation initiatives, such as Canada’s Urban National Parks Program, which do not currently foreground Indigenous-led conservation in the governance of urban green space.

The changing class and educational composition of the UK political elite since 1945: implications for representation

AbstractDebates over the changing nature of the UK political elite have focused on questions of representation and the extent of class convergence between the leaderships of the Conservative and Labour parties. We present a new comprehensive survey of the class and educational composition of the membership of Conservative and Labour cabinets and shadow cabinets since 1945. Some convergence in the class composition of the leaderships is apparent, but intra-class differences in terms of sector and occupation point to persisting differences in adult experience in profit-making versus public/third sector organisations and in technical versus sociocultural professions. Educationally, there is a decline in the Conservative leadership in the numbers coming from elite private schools but not from private schools in general, and attendance at elite universities remains more common on the Conservative side. Changes in the class origins and previous employment of the Conservative leadership do not suggest any weakening in the party’s capacity to represent business interests. In contrast, while there has been no decline in the proportion of the Labour leadership from working-class origins, there has been an almost complete disappearance of those with adult experience of working-class life.

A pilot program to expand career opportunities in conservation for students of color

AbstractThe Scholars for Conservation Leadership Program (SCLP) is a pilot initiative designed to expand career development opportunities to undergraduate students of color in their senior year who are interested in pursuing a career in conservation and/or employment with a land trust organization. Through SCLP, undergraduate seniors engage in career development activities and events, network with conservation practitioners, receive mentorship from a Conservationist of Color group member with similar career interests, attend the Land Trust Alliance Rally National Land Conservation Conference (LTA Rally Conference), and can qualify for a paid year‐long fellowship with a land trust. This study explores the evidence gathered during the program to determine if the SCLP achieved the initial desired outcomes. Two cohorts of scholars have participated in the pilot program activities and events. Both cohorts were asked to complete surveys before and immediately after attending the LTA Rally Conference as well as 6–9 months following the conference to share their experiences and perspectives about the program. The evidence strongly suggests that the SCLP pilot initiative is achieving the programmatic outcomes of expanding career development opportunities to students of color, increasing their interest in pursuing a career in conservation and/or working with a land trust organization.

What Made South Korea–Japan Security Cooperation Retreat During the Moon Jae-in Administration?

This article elucidates the reasons behind South Korea’s diminished security cooperation with Japan during the Moon Jae-in administration (2017–2022). The author discovered that President Moon halted ongoing security cooperation activities initiated by his predecessor, even though the North Korean nuclear threat became exponential. In particular, this article argues that not the national-level factors, such as South Koreans’ negative perception of Japan on the basis of their collective memory, but the leader factor was the main reason for the worsening of South Korea–Japan’s security cooperation during the Moon administration, contrary to most people’s expectations. The Moon administration’s progressive political leaders, who had acquired anti-United States/anti-Japan and pro-North Korea/pro-China perspectives during their anti-government protests in the 1970s and 1980s, decided to be confrontational towards Japan to their political benefit. The reality that the security cooperation between South Korea and Japan jumpstarted once the conservative Yoon Suk-yeol administration leaders replaced them supports this finding.

Application of a One Welfare‐Based Ecosystem Model to assess wild collection for public aquariums

Abstract1. Public aquariums are organizations that offer their visitors an opportunity to engage with, gain knowledge of, and contribute to the conservation of species and ecosystems. Unfortunately, the ways many aquariums maintain their populations include primarily sourcing marine species from the wild. This creates the potential for negative impacts to stressed aquatic environments and a need for a holistic approach to quantify the impacts of aquarium population management. 2. The objective of this study was to implement a developed One Welfare‐Based Ecosystem Model to predict impacts of aquarium population management on humans, animals, and the environment. Ecosystem indicators were selected and grouped into physical–chemical, biological, and socio‐economic categories. Data included measurements of environmental and animal indicators at field sites frequently visited by aquariums to collect animals from, aquarium visitor surveys, and publicly available data. Model development included comparing field data to reference information and then adding weightings based on indicator significance and alpha‐testing of the model. 3. At model completion, each institution was allocated a One Welfare status. Confidence ratings of measured indicators and reference data occurred for each field site to determine the appropriateness of use of the model for each aquarium. 4. Findings included a positive One Welfare status, with collaborating institutions scoring in the good and excellent categories (81.92/100 and 92.51/100). Confidence ratings showed positive results (62/100 and 78/100) for model applicability for the field sites studied as well as future use by other institutions assessing similar parameters. 5. To maintain their recognition as leaders in conservation, public aquariums must objectively assess their direct and indirect influence on marine ecosystems moving forward.

A Whale of a Blindspot: The “Effectiveness” of Bribes, Threats, and Socialization in the International Whaling Commission

This paper contributes to broader efforts to de-center and historicize IR theory by bringing into question dominant narratives about developing country behavior at the International Whaling Commission (IWC). This literature either neglects, or actively erases any possibility of developing country agency; different blindspots work to the same effect, whereby developing country behavior is assumed rather than investigated, and behavioral change, such as a decision to join the IWC, vote a certain way, or abide by the whaling moratorium, is driven mostly by exogenous factors—threats, bribes, and persuasion. If a developing country choosing a pro-whaling stance is evidence of vote-buying, and an anti-whaling stance is evidence of coercion or socialization, then great power agency is assumed to exist and matter without being demonstrated—and the possibility of agency is denied to most of the world. I use the case of Brazil, the last country to give up whaling in the American continent, to de-center and historicize important whaling-related decisions made from the 1950s–1990s. Brazil voted against the commercial whaling moratorium in 1982 but has since given up whaling and become a leader in whale conservation. The empirical analysis not only finds scant support for the dominant explanations, but it also challenges them on several grounds—and thus underscores the need for theoretical lenses that allow for developing countries’ agencies to be acknowledged. More than contributing to inclusive scholarship, taking alternative perspectives seriously is imperative for more just conservation practice, and more legitimate global governance.

Politicization of fake news debates and citizen attitudes towards fake news and its regulation

As fake news becomes a pressing social concern, governments from many countries have considered legislation against fake news. This study examined how citizens formed opinions about fake news and an anti-fake news bill in South Korea where political elites provide polarized discourse regarding fake news and associated regulatory politics. Progressive leaders more intensely criticized fake news and proposed an anti-fake news bill whereas conservative leaders vehemently opposed the bill. The analysis of survey data showed that elite polarization may affect citizens’ perceptions of fake news and attitudes toward anti-fake news legislation. Strong partisans tended to believe that fake news is more hostile toward their in-group and had stronger third-person perceptions, and such perceptions were positively related to the support of anti-fake news legislation. Moreover, progressive voters tended to have stronger hostile and third-person perceptions than conservative counterparts, reflecting endorsement of their in-group leaders’ positions. News reception about the bill further increased the gap in the level of support for the bill between progressive and conservative citizens.