Conceptual Uncertainty Research Articles

On ‘legal continuity’ in the post-sovereign model of constitution-making: three problems

One key notion in the post-sovereign paradigm of constitution-making is the idea of ‘legal continuity’. In The Adventures of the Constituent Power: Beyond Revolutions?, Andrew Arato states that this paradigm emerges from an ‘empirical pattern’ marked by legal continuity throughout transitions from old legal systems to new ones. This would imply that it is possible to conceive of a ‘constituent power’ under the law, i.e., without producing legal ruptures. In this work, I will show that there are three problems concerning the idea of ‘legal continuity’ in this context: 1) a contingent obstacle for legal continuity in a ‘strong’ sense; 2) some conceptual uncertainties regarding the scope of the constitutional amendment power; and, 3) a conceptual inconsistency in the results of this legal continuity, related to the effective emergence of a new legal order.

A model ensemble generator to explore structural uncertainty in karst systems with unmapped conduits

Karst aquifers are characterized by high-conductivity conduits embedded in a low-conductivity fractured matrix, resulting in extreme heterogeneity and variable groundwater flow behavior. The conduit network controls groundwater flow, but is often unmapped, making it difficult to apply numerical models to predict system behavior. This paper presents a multi-model ensemble method to represent structural and conceptual uncertainty inherent in simulation of systems with limited spatial information, and to guide data collection. The study tests the new method by applying it to a well-mapped, geologically complex long-term study site: the Gottesacker alpine karst system (Austria/Germany). The ensemble generation process, linking existing tools, consists of three steps: creating 3D geologic models using GemPy (a Python package), generating multiple conduit networks constrained by the geology using the Stochastic Karst Simulator (a MATLAB script), and, finally, running multiple flow simulations through each network using the Storm Water Management Model (C-based software) to reject nonbehavioral models based on the fit of the simulated spring discharge to the observed discharge. This approach captures a diversity of plausible system configurations and behaviors using minimal initial data. The ensemble can then be used to explore the importance of hydraulic flow parameters, and to guide additional data collection. For the ensemble generated in this study, the network structure was more determinant of flow behavior than the hydraulic parameters, but multiple different structures yielded similar fits to the observed flow behavior. This suggests that while modeling multiple network structures is important, additional types of data are needed to discriminate between networks.

Cognitive, Affective, and Feedback-Based Flexibility - Disentangling Shared and Different Aspects of Three Facets of Psychological Flexibility.

Cognitive flexibility – the ability to adjust one ´s behavior to changing environmental demands – is crucial for controlled behavior. However, the term ‘cognitive flexibility’ is used heterogeneously, and associations between cognitive flexibility and other facets of flexible behavior have only rarely been studied systematically. To resolve some of these conceptual uncertainties, we directly compared cognitive flexibility (cue-instructed switching between two affectively neutral tasks), affective flexibility (switching between a neutral and an affective task using emotional stimuli), and feedback-based flexibility (non-cued, feedback-dependent switching between two neutral tasks). Three experimental paradigms were established that share as many procedural features (in terms of stimuli and/or task rules) as possible and administered in a pre-registered study plan (N = 100). Correlation analyses revealed significant associations between the efficiency of cognitive and affective task switching (response time switch costs). Feedback-based flexibility (measured as mean number of errors after rule reversals) did not correlate with task switching efficiency in the other paradigms, but selectively with the effectiveness of affective switching (error rate costs when switching from neutral to emotion task). While preregistered confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) provided no clear evidence for a shared factor underlying the efficiency of switching in all three domains of flexibility, an exploratory CFA suggested commonalities regarding switching effectiveness (accuracy-based switch costs). We propose shared mechanisms controlling the efficiency of cue-dependent task switching across domains, while the relationship to feedback-based flexibility may depend on mechanisms controlling switching effectiveness. Our results call for a more stringent conceptual differentiation between different variants of psychological flexibility.

Phenomenography and the representation of conceptual uncertainty: A comment on Moffitt

Phenomenography and the representation of conceptual uncertainty: A comment on Moffitt

Drivers and barriers for taking account of geological uncertainty in decision making for groundwater protection

The geological conceptual model is considered a major source of uncertainty in groundwater modelling and well capture zone delineation. However, how to account for it in groundwater policy and management remains largely unresolved. We explore the drivers and barriers to account for geological conceptual uncertainty in groundwater protection amongst decision makers and stakeholders in an agricultural groundwater catchment in Denmark. Using a groundwater model, we analyze the impact of alternative geological conceptual models on capture zone delineation. A focus area, which covers multiple modelled capture zones, is defined and considered for groundwater protection. Model uncertainty and focus area are discussed at two workshops, one with local and national stakeholders and another with local farmers. The drivers to account for model uncertainty include: i) safer drinking water protection by considering a larger area for protection than identified from a single geological model; and ii) stability over time of management plans. The main barrier is the additional cost to the stakeholders for the protection of a larger area. We conclude that integration of geological uncertainty in groundwater protection plans may be improved through: i) better communication between the research community and the national water authority; ii) more constraining guidelines regarding the estimation of geological uncertainty; and iii) the development of a framework ensuring knowledge transfer to the local water authorities and detailing how to integrate uncertainty in management plans.

Patient-relevant outcomes: what are we talking about? A scoping review to improve conceptual clarity

BackgroundWith respect to patient-centered care, measuring care effects based on patient-relevant outcomes is becoming increasingly important. There is some uncertainty about what outcomes are particularly relevant to patients and who determines their relevance. To determine this, we conducted a scoping review of the international literature with the aim to improve the conceptual clarity regarding (1) the terminology used for supposedly patient-relevant outcomes, (2) the variety of outcomes considered patient-relevant, and (3) justifications for the choice of these specific outcomes.MethodsWe conducted a systematic search in Embase, PubMed (including Medline), Cochrane Central, Scopus, and Google Scholar with a special focus on article titles. Search terms included patient-relevant, patient-important, patient-preferred, and outcome(s), endpoint(s), parameter(s), indicator(s). We limited the search period from January 2000 to July 2019. Full-text articles reporting outcomes that were described as patient-relevant met the inclusion criteria. Two researchers independently analyzed all eligible articles applying quantitative and structuring content analysis.ResultsWe identified 155 articles, 44 of which met the inclusion criteria. A content analysis revealed 35 different terms used with regard to patient-relevant outcomes. However, authors predominantly referred to patient-important outcomes (23 articles, 52.3%) and patient-relevant outcomes (17 articles, 38.6%). A structuring content analysis of all extracted outcomes revealed a total of 281 codes, pooled in 32 inductive categories. Among these, the following categories dominated: symptoms, adverse events/complications, survival/mortality, pain. In just 16 of the articles (36.4%), authors provided justifications for the choice of the outcome being based either on patient and/or expert opinions. In another 13 articles (29.5%), no justification was provided.ConclusionThis scoping review on patient-relevant outcomes was driven by the questions (1) what outcomes are particularly relevant to patients, and (2) who determines their relevance. We found a wide range of supposedly patient-relevant outcomes, with only one third of articles involving patients in the justification of the outcome selection. In view of this conceptual uncertainty it appears difficult to determine or even to compare a particular patient benefit of interventions. A set of generic outcomes relevant to patients would be helpful to contribute to a consistent understanding of patient relevance.

On the impact of alternative seismic time imaging methods on subsurface fault mapping in the northernmost Molasse Basin, Switzerland

The identification and characterization of tectonic faults in the subsurface represent key aspects of geologic exploration activities across the world. We have evaluated the impact of alternative seismic time imaging methods on initial subsurface fault mapping in three dimensions in the form of a case study situated in the most external foreland of the European Central Alps (the northernmost Molasse Basin). Four different seismic amplitude volumes of one and the same 3D seismic data set, differing in imaging technologies and parameterizations applied, were considered for the interpretation of a fault zone dissecting a Mesozoic sedimentary sequence that is characterized by a pronounced mechanical stratigraphy and has witnessed a multiphase tectonic evolution. For this purpose, we interpreted each seismic amplitude volume separately. In addition, we computed a series of seismic attributes individually for each volume. Comparison of the different data interpretations revealed consistent results concerning the mapping of the seismic marker horizons and main fault segments. Deviations concern the apparent degree of vertical and lateral fault zone segmentation and the occurrence of small-scale fault strands that may be regarded as important fault kinematic indicators. The compilation of all fault interpretations in map form allows the critical assessment of the robustness of the initial seismic fault mapping, highlighting well-constrained from poorly defined fault zone elements. We conclude that the consideration of multiple seismic processing products for subsurface fault mapping is advisable to evaluate general imaging uncertainties and potentially guide the development of fault zone model variants to tackle previously discussed aspects of conceptual interpretation uncertainties.

The underlying concepts of the definition of a liability in financial reporting: A doctrinal research perspective

Accounting literature has identified fundamental conceptual issues and uncertainties regarding the financial reporting treatment of liabilities. This paper assesses whether the underlying concepts for the definition of a liability are robust and sufficiently developed in the 2018 Conceptual Framework of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) to create a conceptual foundation to identify, recognise, measure and derecognise liabilities. Doctrinal research is applied to evaluate the proposed concepts by using authoritative interpretation. The outcome of the authoritative interpretation is the contribution to the accounting literature. The paper finds that the 2018 Conceptual Framework significantly improves the conceptual foundation of the identification, recognition, measurement and derecognition of liabilities. The 2018 Conceptual Framework clarifies the obligation and past event criteria of the definition of a liability and, as a result, has paved the way for removing the reference to future outflow or sacrifices in both the definition and the recognition criteria of a liability. The 2018 Conceptual Framework also implies that when meeting the definition of a liability, in principle, it appropriately triggers recognition. It also clearly defines the different measurement bases and clarifies the measurement decision process regarding liabilities, which are sufficiently based on the nature and benefits of different measurement bases and the factors of useful information. The uncertainty about the existence of a liability for incorporation in financial statements is, however, still problematic and could create uncertainty in developing related International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs) and in practical applications.

“Science and proven experience”: How should the epistemology of medicine inform the regulation of healthcare?

The Swedish medico-legal concept of “science and proven experience” is both legally important and ambiguous. The conceptual uncertainty associated with it can hamper effective assessment of medical evidence in legal proceedings and encourage medical professionals to distrust legal regulation. We examine normative criteria a functioning medico-legal notion should presumably meet, e.g. clarity, acceptability and consistency with existing laws. We also survey healthcare professionals to see how they understand science and proven experience and thus determine the extent to which their understanding meets the normative criteria. The survey suggests that medical professionals feel more certain about “science and proven experience” in the medical context than they do in a legal context. They still have substantial trust in the legal use of the notion, but they do not believe that legal professionals should be allowed to determine the meaning of “science and proven experience” in the legal context. With these results in mind, we argue that the best way to meet the normative criteria and resolve conceptual uncertainty is to specify sub-questions that clarify the notion. We recommend an analytical-deliberative approach that will close the gap between the medical and legal professions’ perceptions of how law and medicine relate.

Conceptual framework and uncertainty analysis for large-scale, species-agnostic modelling of landscape connectivity across Alberta, Canada

Sustainable land-use planning should consider large-scale landscape connectivity. Commonly-used species-specific connectivity models are difficult to generalize for a wide range of taxa. In the context of multi-functional land-use planning, there is growing interest in species-agnostic approaches, modelling connectivity as a function of human landscape modification. We propose a conceptual framework, apply it to model connectivity as current density across Alberta, Canada, and assess map sensitivity to modelling decisions. We directly compared the uncertainty related to (1) the definition of the degree of human modification, (2) the decision whether water bodies are considered barriers to movement, and (3) the scaling function used to translate degree of human modification into resistance values. Connectivity maps were most sensitive to the consideration of water as barrier to movement, followed by the choice of scaling function, whereas maps were more robust to different conceptualizations of the degree of human modification. We observed higher concordance among cells with high (standardized) current density values than among cells with low values, which supports the identification of cells contributing to larger-scale connectivity based on a cut-off value. We conclude that every parameter in species-agnostic connectivity modelling requires attention, not only the definition of often-criticized expert-based degrees of human modification.

Dynamic Modeling for Resilience Measurement: NATO Resilience Decision Support Model

Despite its conceptual uncertainty, resilience is mostly about the measurement of capacity. Current studies confirm the importance of resilience measurement and the necessity to support policy makers with a measurement mechanism. A holistic approach considering the measurement of different resilience domains interactively and concurrently is the critical element in this endeavor. In parallel with the rise of popularity of resilience in international organizations, NATO has initiated a project with the objective to discover whether the resilience capacity of a country can be evaluated in a dynamic way via a prototype model execution. The implemented model running both baseline (without any shock) and extraordinary scenarios (with strategic shocks), clearly demonstrates its capacity to represent quantitatively the resilience related factors of a country in the complex operational environment. Moreover, the outputs of the model substantially comply with the resilience concept existing in the literature and NATO applications. One of the main strengths of the model is its almost infinite capacity to create various scenarios and make what-if analysis limited only by the current number of endogenous parameters of the model. It allows studying the secondary and the third order effects of events introduced in scenarios. The user interfaces (input and output dashboards) of the model help decision makers modify the values of selected endogenous parameters, see and compare the time-based values of the resilience factors, and doing so to evaluate risk related to the Area of Operations. Subject matter experts have validated the model and identified the main areas of improvement. The further development brings more countries to the model and implements an aggregation mechanism for output values of both resilience capacity and risk functions. The model will form the core of the NATO Resilience expert system.

Uncertainties in the decision-making process of megaprojects: the Zeebrugge new sea lock

Complexity and uncertainty are inherent to megaprojects. While the social cost−benefit analysis (SCBA) and environmental impact assessment (EIA) are increasingly used to support decision making (DM) in megaprojects, these instruments often ignore and avoid uncertainty communication, documentation and analysis. By using a conceptual uncertainty matrix for decision-support analyses, this paper questions how uncertainties are taken into account in the SCBA and EIA when making decisions. A document analysis is applied to the SCBA, EIA and other project documents from the research (planning) phase of an ongoing sea port megaproject in Zeebrugge, Flanders. The results show that uncertainties are barely documented nor analysed in the SCBA and EIA, but arise later during the DM process; mainly about which plan alternative is the best for achieving the project's objectives. Uncertainty or ambiguity about ‘the best alternative’ results from stakeholders’ different interpretations of the SCBA and EIA. The paper reveals that research about megaproject uncertainty and DM should not be limited to the boundaries of either an SCBA or EIA but to further extend the scope to look at the dynamic interplay between uncertainties like multiple decision-support instruments, stakeholders’ different interpretations of these instruments and perceptions about uncertainties, DM and the general process.

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“How old do you feel today at work?” Work-related drivers of subjective age in the workplace

ABSTRACT Most Western societies face the challenge of steadily ageing workforces. In recent decades, research on ageing has intensively focused on the subjective age concept to understand the challenges and risks of increasingly ageing workforces. Nevertheless, the subjective age construct is subject to several conceptual uncertainties, namely, regarding its stability and potential work-specific drivers of subjective age. We address these limitations by a) investigating the stability of subjective age in a worker sample, and b) identifying work-specific drivers (e.g., negative work events, positive work events, work stress) of subjective age perceptions. Building on social identity and lifespan theories, we test our conceptual assumptions with an online sample of 168 U.S. employees, applying growth curve modelling in a daily diary study over one workweek. Results indicate that subjective age is a mutable construct and varies between- and within-person in the course of a workweek. We identify positive work events and work stress as between-person drivers and negative work events as a within-person driver of subjective age. We discuss theoretical implications of these findings as well as consequences for practitioners.

Increasing understanding and confidence in THM simulations of Engineered Barrier Systems

Previous studies on the modelling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in bentonite-based engineered barrier systems (EBSs) showed the sensitivity of the output quantities to changes in the input parameters. To investigate the effects of uncertainties on the modelling results, to improve the understanding of the coupled processes active in the repository near field and to gain in-depth understanding of model uncertainties of different codes, a sensitivity analysis and code comparison of EBS simulations was performed within the Task Force on Engineered Barrier Systems. The analysis included variations in material parameter values, boundary and initial conditions, considered physical processes and model geometries, amounting to 60 different cases. This in-depth analysis helped evaluate the influence of parameter and conceptual uncertainties on the results of coupled THM simulations and to identify key parameters and processes. The cross-code comparison encouraged a fruitful exchange among modelling teams and led to very good agreements between the results of the different codes. Serving as a benchmark example for THM-coupled simulations of bentonite-based EBSs, the study helped increase the confidence in the modelling capabilities of several codes used for safety evaluations of repositories for spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste.

Availability and Quality of Assessment Instruments on Patient-Centredness in the Multimorbid Elderly (AQuA-PCE): a study protocol of a systematic review

IntroductionElderly, multimorbid patients are a primary target group for patient-centred care, and fostering patient-centredness (PC) in this group has been associated with different healthcare aims such as safety and quality...

Digital economy of the Russian Federation: A conceptual analysis of the national program

The Government “Digital Economy of the Russian Federation” Program describes future economic development of Russia, its regions and industries. However, this Program has not been scrutinized for the modern economic theories and inner conceptual inconsistencies. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to identify the Program’s conceptual uncertainties which could give rise to the alternative scenarios of the economic development of Russia and to inconsistent managerial decisions resulted in the dramatic differences in unfolding the digital economy in different regions and industries. It has been found that the Program contains three definitions for the digital economy – declared (with the focus on the digital data), latent (with the focus on the digital platforms), and promising (with the focus on the artificial intelligence) ones. The Program’s content was compared with the modern economic theories, which revealed five levels of strategic uncertainty: 1) cluster or platform economy; 2) dispersed or agglomeration economy; 3) linear or circular economy; 4) homogeneous or heterogeneous economic landscape; 5) smart cities, smart agglomerations or smart regions. The reviewed Program lacks a clearly defined priority in the development of the cluster or post-cluster (platform) economy in Russia, which creates the theoretical (conceptual) and practical (connected with the development of the social and economic strategy) uncertainties for the industries and regions. With a stronger focus on the latent definition of the Program, there is a risk of extreme monopolization of the digital markets in Russia by the platform leading companies which are mainly located in Moscow and established with the public support under this Program implementation. The article offers to expand the concept of platform economy with a new type of digital ecosystem – a territorial digital platform to construct regional digital platforms and to develop business-ecosystems around them. It has been found that the digital economy in Russia is developed together with the implementation of the previously adopted spatial development strategy aimed to diminish the inter-regional differences, therefore, the dispersed digital economy should be seen as a promising approach. At the same time, there is a risk to activate the process of extreme territorial concentration of digital economic activities as the reviewed Program contains no measures aimed to disperse the agents of digital economy with any financial and other public mechanisms. One more strategic uncertainty induced by the fact that the Program lacks any priorities in preserving or expanding value chain is connected with linear or circular economy dichotomy. This uncertainty misinforms the domestic economic agents and could lead to the technological retardation of Russia from the leading countries in the circular digital economy. The advent of the artificial intelligence gives rise to the debate about the alternative routes of development with the homogeneous (human only) types of agents or heterogeneous (humans, intelligent machines and human-machine systems) economic landscape. It has been shown that the Program does not regulate the interaction of the different economic agents and the development of the economic landscapes, which could result in the unwanted transformation of the Russian economic space. In connection with the smart territorial units, the conclusion is that the Program does not contain any instructions concerning a preferable theory for the territorial organization of digital economy (smart city, smart region, smart agglomeration). This could lead to the situation when different regions observe different theories, with their implementation violating the equilibrium in the digital economic space of Russia. Interception of all alternative theories gives 48 possible development scenarios for digital economy in Russia. It has been established that Russia is likely to follow the platform agglomeration linear digital economy in homogeneous landscapes and smart cities. It is noted that the development of platform dispersed circular digital economy in heterogeneous landscapes and smart regions is seen to be the most favorable scenario in terms of modern studies and digital economy practices in other countries. The practical value of the study is determined by the adjustment of the existing Program or a development of a new document. Further studies are seen to be performed in the field of finding new uncertainty levels, one of them being “4G-, 5G- or 6G-determined digital economy”.

Problems of political and legal support for sustainable development of the hunting industry in Russia

Hunting industry is a sphere of material production, a specific ecological and social phenomenon characterized by a variety of its functions from providing the population with high-quality food products to service functions. Political and legal documents adopted at the national level, defining the goal, objectives, principles, and main directions of the development of hunting natural resources, play the leading role in the development of the industry. Current acts of strategic planning and regulations lack the key point - a conscious choice of the type of hunting activity that meets the needs of society and the state at the present stage of historical development. Conceptual and legal uncertainty determines the consolidation in legal acts of mutually exclusive tasks for the development of the industry, declaring the need to simultaneously stimulate entrepreneurial activity and ensure the availability of hunting for citizens. The lack of recognition of the diversity of natural, geographical and cultural features of the hunting use of wild animals’ resources, the lack of scenario-based forecasts and opportunities for adjusting goals are significant weak points of the current regulators. We believe that the development of strategic sectoral planning documents should take into account the right to hunt, securing the predominantly egalitarian nature of the hunting organization.

Information content of spatially distributed ground-based measurements for hydrologic-parameter calibration in mixed rain-snow mountain headwaters

Parameters in hydrologic models used in mixed rain-snow regions are often uncertain to calibrate and overfitted on streamflow. To contribute addressing these challenges, we used an algorithm that assesses modeling performances through time (Dynamic Identifiability Analysis) to quantify the information content of spatially distributed ground-based measurements for identifying optimal parameter values in the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model. Including spatially distributed ground-based measurements in Identifiability Analysis allowed us to unambiguously estimate more parameter values than only using streamflow (seven parameters instead of two out of a pool of thirty-three). Peaks in information gain were obtained when using dew-point temperature to identify precipitation phase-partitioning parameters. Multi-attribute identifiability analysis also yielded optimal parameter values that were temporally less variable than those estimated using streamflow alone. Overall, identifying parameter values using ground-based measurements improved the simulation of key drivers of the surface-water budget, such as air temperature and precipitation-phase partitioning. However, parameters simulating surface-to-subsurface mass fluxes like snow accumulation and melt or evapotranspiration were poorly identified by any attribute and so emerged as key sources of predictive uncertainty for this distributed-parameter hydrologic model. This work demonstrates the value of expanded ground-based measurements for identifying parameters in distributed-parameter hydrologic models and so diagnosing their conceptual uncertainty across the water budget.

Money and the ‘Level Playing Field’: The Epistemic Problem of European Financial Market Integration

ABSTRACT Financial market integration processes in the European Union (EU) are characterised by an epistemic problem of economic theory. This problem encompasses what ‘the market’ is, how it is to be ‘integrated’, and the nature and role of ‘money’ as infrastructure of the fully integrated market. The EU’s legal framework has imported this epistemic problem along with the competitive conception of the market as described in economic theory – as a ‘level playing field’ for private exchange, under free, fair and ideally unrestrained competition. It manifests itself in European financial market integration processes, as exemplified in the article, via two otherwise disconnected areas of European Central Bank (ECB) activity: (a) the provision of central bank credit for the purpose of financial transaction settlement in the Eurozone; and (b) the conduct of ordinary monetary policy in the Eurozone. While the problem can be stabilised through legal, technical and other means, it remains latent, and may manifest itself again in unexpected ways, as happened in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Thus, contrary to ideologies that are widely understood as more or less coherent systems of doctrines, epistemic problems are characterised by specific tensions, contradictions and conceptual uncertainties.