Cold Surge Research Articles

Variability in Onshore Sediment Transport on a Natural Beach during a Central American Cold Surge Event

Briggs, T.R.; Figlus, J.; Torres-Freyermuth, A.; Puleo, J.A.; Warren, W., and Alrushaid, T., 2020. Variability in onshore sediment transport on a natural beach during a Central American cold surge event. Journal of Coastal Research, 36(3), 487–497. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Beaches facing the Gulf of Mexico along the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula experience frequent Central American cold surge events, or northerly storms locally called “Nortes,” which interrupt the usual daily patterns of sea- and land-breeze–dominated nearshore dynamics. These perturbations of prevailing hydrodynamic forcing conditions also affect sediment distribution and transport parameters in the surf and swash zone, which are critical elements in understanding and modeling complex morphodynamic processes during storm events. However, detailed measurements of sediment characteristics throughout the water column during a storm event are scarce. This study presents field measurements of bottom and suspended sediment transported in the onshore direction during a 24-hour storm event impacting the Yucatan Peninsula. Sediment load data within the water column collected in 3 hour intervals via vertical arrays of streamer traps, deployed at two cross-shore locations in the inner surf zone, are compared with sediment data from collocated bottom grab samples. Time series of grain size distributions, sediment statistics, and respective vertical variations throughout the water column are related to measured bed-level changes to verify applicability of simple erosion and accretion predictors. Results indicate that bottom sediment and sediment distributions throughout the water column deviate substantially due to storms, highlighting the complexity and difficulty of assessing sediment transport and morphodynamic processes with a single-parameter sediment characteristic. Calculated total onshore transport rates during the Norte were on average one order of magnitude higher than during nonstorm conditions.

Extreme Temperature Change of the Last 110 Years in Changchun, Northeast China

In China and East Asia, the long-term continuous observational data at daily resolution are insufficient, and thus there is a lack of good understanding of the extreme climate variation over the last 100 years plus. In this study, the extreme temperature indices defined by ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) and local meteorological administrations were analyzed for Changchun City, Northeast China, by using the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) over 1909−2018. The results showed that extreme cold events, such as cold days, cold nights, frost days, icing days, and low temperature days, decreased significantly at rates of −0.41 d (10 yr)−1, −1.45 d (10 yr)−1, −2.28 d (10 yr)−1, −1.16 d (10 yr)−1 and −1.90 d (10 yr)−1, respectively. Warm nights increased significantly at a rate of 1.71 d (10 yr)−1, but warm days decreased slightly and the number of high temperature days decreased at a rate of −0.20 d (10 yr)−1. The frequency of cold surge events increased significantly at a rate of 0.25 d (10 yr)−1, occurring mainly from the mid-1950s to late-1980s. The average Tmax, average Tmin and extreme Tmin increased at rates of 0.09°C (10 yr)−1, 0.36°C (10 yr)−1 and 0.54°C (10 yr)−1, respectively; and extreme Tmax decreased significantly at a rate of −0.17°C (10 yr)−1. In 1909−2018, 1951−2018 and 1979−2018, the indices related to cold events decreased, while the trends of the indices related to warm events were different for different periods.

Extreme weather events recorded by daily to hourly resolution biogeochemical proxies of marine giant clam shells

Paleoclimate research has built a framework for Earth's climate changes over the past 65 million years or even longer. However, our knowledge of weather-timescale extreme events (WEEs, also named paleoweather), which usually occur over several days or hours, under different climate regimes is almost blank because current paleoclimatic records rarely provide information with temporal resolution shorter than monthly scale. Here we show that giant clam shells (Tridacna spp.) from the tropical western Pacific have clear daily growth bands, and several 2-y-long (from January 29, 2012 to December 9, 2013) daily to hourly resolution biological and geochemical records, including daily growth rate, hourly elements/Ca ratios, and fluorescence intensity, were obtained. We found that the pulsed changes of these ultra-high-resolution proxy records clearly matched with the typical instrumental WEEs, for example, tropical cyclones during the summer-autumn and cold surges during the winter. When a tropical cyclone passes through or approaches the sampling site, the growth rate of Tridacna shell decreases abruptly due to the bad weather. Meanwhile, enhanced vertical mixing brings nutrient-enriched subsurface water to the surface, resulting in a high Fe/Ca ratio and strong fluorescence intensity (induced by phytoplankton bloom) in the shell. Our results demonstrate that Tridacna shell has the potential to be used as an ultra-high-resolution archive for paleoweather reconstructions. The fossil shells living in different geological times can be built as a Geological Weather Station network to lengthen the modern instrumental data and investigate the WEEs under various climate conditions.

Seasonal Dependence of Cold Surges and their Interaction with the Madden–Julian Oscillation over Southeast Asia

AbstractNortheasterly cold surges strongly influence the rainfall patterns over the Malay Peninsula during the northeast monsoon season. This study looks at the changes in the cold surges and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) characteristics through the northeast monsoon season and their interaction. Nearly 75% of the cold surge events tend to cross the equator around the Java Sea area (100°–110°E) in February–March with drier conditions prevailing over the Malay Peninsula and increased rainfall over Java. Both the cold surges and the MJO undergo seasonal variations with well-defined regional features. Wavelet analysis shows that MJO amplitude and high-frequency rainfall variations over Southeast Asia peak in November–December. MJO amplitude is suppressed during February and March. This is linked to the high-frequency surges of meridional winds that are prominent during the early part of the season, but February–March is dominated by low-frequency (~20–90 days) cross-equatorial monsoon flow. These prolonged periods of strong meridional flow at the equator interact with the MJO both dynamically and thermodynamically and act as a barrier for convection from propagating from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent (MC). These interactions may have implications for weather and seasonal forecasting over the region. An evaluation of the properties of cold surges and their interaction with the seasonal cycle in the Met Office Unified Model is performed. The atmosphere–ocean coupled model performs better in representing the pattern of influence of the cold surges despite the biases in intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes. These diagnostics are presented with the aim of developing a set of model evaluation metrics for global and regional models.

A Synergistic Effect of Blockings on a Persistent Strong Cold Surge in East Asia in January 2018

A persistent strong cold surge occurred in East Asia in late January 2018, causing mean near-surface air temperature in China to hit the second lowest since 1984. Moreover, the daily mean air temperature remained persistently negative for more than 20 days. Here, we find that a synergistic effect of double blockings in Western Europe and North America plays an important accelerating role in the rapid phase transition of Arctic Oscillation and an amplifying role in the strength of cold air preceding to the cold surge outbreaks by the use of an isentropic potential vorticity analysis. In mid-January, an Atlantic mid-latitude anticyclone merged with Western Europe blocking, which led to a strengthening of the blocking. Simultaneously, the Pacific-North American blocking was also significantly strengthened. The two blockings synchronously deeply stretched towards the Arctic, which resulted in, on the one hand, warm and moist air of the Pacific and the Atlantic being excessively transported into the Arctic, and on the other hand, the polar vortex being split and cold air being squeezed southwards and accumulating extensively on the West Siberian Plain. After the breakdown of the double blocking pattern, which lasted for about 10 days, the record-breaking cold surge broke out in East Asia. It was discovered that the synergistic effect of double blockings extending into the Arctic, which is conducive to extreme cold events, has been rapidly increasing in recent years.

Spatiotemporal Storm Impact on the Northern Yucatan Coast during Hurricanes and Central American Cold Surge Events

We investigate the storm impact associated with historical events in the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The study area is prone to coastal flooding due to both its geographical location and low-lying areas. Extreme events associated with tropical cyclones and Central American cold surge (CACS; locally known as Nortes) are ubiquitous in this region, and coastal development in the study area has exacerbated the erosion of the sand beach-dune system. This study aims to assess the impact on the northern coast of Yucatan associated with different types of storms and to investigate the role of the dune in its spatial variability. Nearshore hydrodynamics, associated with hurricanes (Gilbert: 14 September 1988; Isidore: 22 September 2002) and energetic Nortes (Norte A: 12 March 1993; Norte B: 25 December 2004), were computed using a numerical model. The beach and dune characteristics were extracted from a LIDAR flight with a spatial resolution of 1 m conducted in 2011. Furthermore, the extreme water levels and the spatiotemporal variability of the storm-impact regime (swash, collision, overwash, or inundation), along a 41.5 km stretch of coast, were derived using both runup parametrizations and the modeling results. On the one hand, the predominant storm impact regimes for Hurricanes Gilbert and Isidore were inundation and overwash, respectively. The flood that propagated from east to west in the northern Yucatan was due to westerly-directed hurricane tracks. On the other hand, for the Norte events, the predominant impact regimes were collision and overwash for Nortes A and B, respectively. This difference in the impact regime between Norte events can be ascribed to tidal differences. Moreover, during the passages of Nortes A and B, the flood was propagated from west to east in the northern Yucatan, consistent with cold-front paths. The results suggest that the western part of the study area presented a stronger impact regime due to the dune degradation caused by coastal infrastructure and settlements established in those areas. This work highlights the important role of sand dunes in providing natural coastal protection during Norte events.

Climate Variability over the Maritime Continent and Its Role in Global Climate Variation: A Review

The Maritime Continent (MC) consists of multiple islands with varying sizes and topography, and surrounding seas. It is characterized by rainfall (convection) variability on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Various large-scale atmospheric, oceanic, and coupled climate systems, such as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and cold surge, exert significant influences on the spatio-temporal complexity of the MC climate and climate variability. As a major tropical heat source located within the warmest oceanic area (the western Pacific warm pool), the MC has been identified as a region of great importance for climate variation on the global scale. However, prediction of climate variability over the MC and its surrounding areas and the relationships to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns are big challenges, even for state-of-the-art climate models. In this paper, we provide a thorough review on current understanding of the spatiotemporal complexity and prediction of climate variability over this important region, and its influence on global climate variation.

Occurrence of meridional and easterly surges and their impact on Malaysian rainfall during the northeast monsoon: a climatology study

AbstractThe cold surge or meridional surge (MS) is known to be one of the main features that contributes to extreme Malaysian rainfall events during the boreal winter or northeast monsoon. This study investigates other factors that contribute to the heavy rainfall, besides the cold surge, as well as their impacts on rainfall in the Malaysian region. Based on known methods, two additional types of surge are identified, namely the easterly surge (ES) and the mixed surge (MES), which is a mixture of both ES and MS. Daily average wind data from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis ERA‐Interim for 37 seasons of the northeast monsoon (1979–1980 to 2016–2017, October–March) were used to identify the MSs, ESs and MESs. The impact of these surges on rainfall in the Malaysian region was investigated by using the rainfall data from the meteorological stations of the Malaysian Meteorological Department and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. The results showed that the MS plays an important role in modulating heavy rainfall in the early season over the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. Meanwhile, the ES dominates the rainfall distribution over Sarawak in the late middle season. The rainfall modulated by the MES shows a higher intensity and concentrates over the southern part of the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah. These findings provide a climatological view of the spatial and temporal distribution of heavy rainfall associated with different types of surge, which can be used as a forecasting tool for predicting surges and their impacts.

Long-range transport of aerosols from East and Southeast Asia to northern Philippines and its direct radiative forcing effect

Two elevated fine particulate mass concentration events were observed in a span of a week in northern Philippines on March of 2017. Results from chemical characterization, lidar observation, and model simulations of particulate matter show the high aerosol concentration events to be caused by long range transport (LRT) of anthropogenic pollutants from northern East Asia at the surface and biomass burning emission from Indochina aloft. In this study, we investigated the transport path of these LRT aerosols and estimated their direct radiative forcing. A strong Siberian high and a confluent flow induced by a continental high over the main Asian continent and a cyclonic circulation over the south of Japan produced a strong northerly wind that carried pollutants from northern East Asia to northern Philippines. At the same time, strong westerlies 2–4 km aloft carried biomass burning emissions from Indochina, which also had an impact on ground concentration. Mass extinction efficiency of LRT aerosols was estimated to be in the range of 2.06–6.44 m2g-1 with a mean value of 4.32 ± 1.32 m2g−1. In addition, we calculated the direct radiative forcing effect under clear sky condition and found that the transported aerosols had a mean net negative forcing (cooling) effect of −50.80 ± 12.38 Wm−2 and −11.98 ± 3.96 Wm−2 on surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively. Such pollutant transport during wintertime cold surges had been shown to reduce local surface pollutants in northern China. Consequently, its impacts shift to downwind regions as far as the Philippines. As winter cold surge frequency increases due to the warming arctic, more LRT events may be expected as a result of climate change.

Environmental Conditions for Nighttime Offshore Migration of Precipitation Area as Revealed by In Situ Observation off Sumatra Island

Abstract The diurnal cycle over tropical coastal waters is characterized by offshore migration of precipitation area during nighttime. This study analyzes in situ observational data collected during the YMC-Sumatra 2017 field campaign around the western coast of Sumatra Island, Indonesia, to examine the offshore migration phenomenon during 5–31 December 2017, when the Research Vessel Mirai was deployed about 90 km off the coast to perform observation. The offshore migration is observed in only less than a half of the 27 days. A comparison of radiosonde data at the vessel between days with and without the offshore migration reveals that vertical wind shear in the lower troposphere is a key environmental condition. In late afternoon of the days with the offshore migration, offshore (northeasterly) wind shear with height with considerable magnitude is observed, which is due to weaker daily mean southwesterly wind in the lower free troposphere, stronger southwesterly wind in the boundary layer, and sea breeze. As this condition is considered favorable for regeneration of convective cells to the offshore side of old ones, these results support an idea that the regeneration process is critical for the offshore migration. The Madden–Julian oscillation and cold surges play some roles in the weakening of the free-tropospheric wind. The migration speed is estimated at 2–3 m s−1, which is lower than that observed in another field campaign conducted in 2015 (Pre-YMC 2015). This difference is partly due to the difference in the environmental wind in the lower to midtroposphere.

Role of Eurasian Snow Cover in Linking Winter‐Spring Eurasian Coldness to the Autumn Arctic Sea Ice Retreat

AbstractAn anomalous “north‐south” dipole mode of the snow water equivalent (SWE) persisting from winter to spring is detected over the Eurasian mid‐to‐high latitudes in this study. Using observational data sets and numerical experiments of the Community Atmospheric Model (5.0), we show that this mode contributes to prolonged winter‐springtime coldness in midlatitude Eurasia and is closely linked to the declining November Arctic sea ice concentration. The decline in the sea ice concentration over the Barents‐Laptev Seas can induce a teleconnection pattern over the mid‐to‐high latitudes in the following winter, accompanied by an anomalous ridge over the Ural Mountains and an anomalous trough over Europe and East Asia. Such changes in the large‐scale circulation lead to more cold surges and heavy snowfall in the midlatitudes and light snowfall in the high latitudes, forming an anomalous north‐south dipole mode of the SWE, which further reduces the temperature through thermodynamic feedback. Due to seasonal memory, this SWE pattern can persist into the following spring and can lead to springtime midlatitude coldness via thermodynamic and dynamic processes. For the thermodynamic process, the anomalous SWE condition can lead to anomalous wet soil, reduced incoming surface solar radiation, and cooling air in the midlatitudes. This phenomenon induces an enhanced Siberian High and a deepened East Asian trough via the snow‐Siberian high‐feedback mechanism, which favors a cold spring in northern East Asia. Further analysis suggests that an empirical seasonal prediction model based on the SWE can reasonably predict East Asian spring temperature anomalies.

Morphodynamics along a micro-tidal sea breeze dominated beach in the vicinity of coastal structures

The present study investigates the seasonal and interannual morphodynamics on a micro-tidal sea-breeze dominated tropical beach located in the northern Yucatan peninsula (México). The coastal dynamics in the study area are controlled by both local (sea-breeze) and synoptic (Central American Cold Surge; CACS) scale atmospheric events. However, the net (westward) littoral drift is dominated by more persistent sea breeze events. The field study was conducted along a 2-km stretch of sandy beach located in the vicinity of two coastal structures. One hundred beach surveys (2000 beach profiles) were undertaken between May 2015 and June 2019 on a weekly and bi-weekly basis to investigate beach morphodynamics. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the morphological features are used to identify the dominant modes of beach variability. The first and second spatial EOF modes explain the beach long-term trend and rotation, respectively. The first spatial mode is highly influenced by the presence of the structures for all morphological features. The second spatial mode associated to beach rotation shows accretion (erosion) eastward (westward) of the structures during spring-summer (fall-winter) months. Field observations were employed to correlate the beach response with physical parameters (i.e., water level and wave parameters). The long-term trend of the shoreline and subaerial volume show no significant correlations with the physical parameters, whereas the temporal mode of the high-water contour presents a step-like behavior which is correlated to the still water level. On the other hand, beach rotation is highly correlated to the seasonal variability of wave parameters. Field observations suggest that increase of CACS events activity and water level during El Niño 2015–2016 winter season enhanced (decreased) the beach rotation (translation), implying a high beach sensitivity to climate variability in this region.

Two Distinct Types of Extratropical Circulation Anomalies Associated with Cold Surges over the South China Sea

Abstract This study investigated the extratropical circulation anomalies responsible for cold surges over the South China Sea in winter. The surge events were identified by the intensity of northerly winds over 110°–117.5°E along 15°N at 925 hPa. Two distinct patterns of sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in East Asia were found to have a crucial role in inducing cold surges over the South China Sea. Accordingly, the cold surge events were classified into two types. The first type of cold surge is characterized by a pair of SLP anomalies with positive and negative ones centered over China and Japan, respectively, whereas the second type of cold surge is characterized by widespread and persistent positive SLP anomalies over East Asia. Furthermore, the first type of cold surge is accompanied by a deepened East Asian trough and precursory Rossby wave trains across the Eurasian continent in the mid- and upper troposphere, but the latter is not. Prior to both types of the cold surges, the Siberian high is significantly intensified. However, diagnosis of the SLP tendency indicates that the intensification is related to different physical processes. In the first type of cold surge, the Rossby wave trains favor negative vorticity advection and cold advection, inducing intensification of the Siberian high. By contrast, in the second type of cold surge, vorticity advection can be ignored due to the lack of Rossby wave trains, and only the lower-tropospheric cold advection induced by anomalous northerly winds, resulting from the anomalous Siberian high, contributes to the further intensification of the Siberian high.

Revisiting the impact of mid-latitude cold air outbreaks on the Maritime Continent weather

The East Asian winter exhibits frequent cold air outbreaks (CAOs), or cold surges, which often cause severe cold waves in the extratropics. CAOs are also of importance for forecasters in the Maritime Continent because the associated equatorward outflows can influence tropical weather. Various CAO definitions have been documented, but a definition based on a quantitative approach was only recently proposed. Studies of the CAO impact often linked a surge index in the subtropics instead of an index in the midlatitude where CAOs basically occur. Here, we investigate the impact by using a quantitative CAO index, which is defined by integrating cold air mass flux below a threshold potential temperature over midlatitude East Asia (45°N, 90°-135°E). From a climatological analysis, tropical convections are significantly observed two-to-four days following CAO event (i.e., the peak of CAO index), indicating CAO impacts. However, case studies show that the impacts vary among independent CAO cases due to influences of associated synoptic conditions, which affect the pathways of northerlies propagation and consequently hinder or amplify the impacts. Several impact patterns and their possible causes are discussed. A better understanding of East Asian CAO variability can improve the predictability of weather over the Maritime Continent.

Identification of The Influence of Long Winter Season in 2017 – 2018 to the Forming of Strong Northerly Cold Surge over West Indonesia

This study identifies the characteristic of strong Northerly Cold Surge (NCS) over West Indonesia in the period from November 2017 until April 2018. Usually the NCS occurs in the DJF period that indicates the rainy season that usually goes to trigger some serve weather in Indonesia. The severe weather accompanying the intense northerly cold surge often brings more major disruptions that often trigger natural disasters like floods and landslides to the affected regions in West Indonesia. Descriptive and statistical methods are used in this study by classifying the intensity of NCS in November 2017 until April 2018. The real-time data from Ogimet Weather Information Service, GSMaP Satellite, and restudy data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are used to determine the 925 millibar meridional wind, relative humidity in 1000, 925, 850, and 700 millibar, mean sea level pressure, and rainfall estimation to identify the passage of NCS in West Indonesia region. The long winter season in 2017 – 2018 triggered the NCS to stay active even it comes to March and April 2018. It is proven by the natural disaster that comes from consecutive intense rainfall like floods and landslides that still intensively occurred in the March until April 2018 in West Indonesia.

Spatial-temporal variations in cold surge events in northern China during the period 1960–2016

Among the most devastating extreme weather events, cold surge (CS) events frequently impact northern China. It has been reported that extreme weather events will increase in the global warming context. However, the direct evidence of this hypothesis is limited. Here, we investigated the changes in frequency, number, duration, and temperature of CS events in northern China using the daily minimum temperature dataset of 331 stations from 1960 to 2016. The results indicate that the annual CS events in terms of frequency and number decreased, and the duration shortened as the starting date was later and the ending date earlier. Meanwhile, the annual CS temperature increased. In addition, spatial trends in the CS events in terms of frequency, number, and duration decreased while the CS temperature increased in most regions of northern China. We interpreted these variations as a response to global warming. However, the extreme CS events in terms of frequency, number and the earliest starting date and the latest ending date showed little change though the extreme CS temperature increased, implying climate warming had not limited extreme CS events. The adverse effect of CS events on agriculture and human health remain concerning.

Autumn Cold Surge Paths over North China and the Associated Atmospheric Circulation

Using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, we tracked the paths of 46 autumn cold surges affecting North China from 1961 to 2014, and classified them by clustering analysis, thereby investigating their changes and associated atmospheric circulation evolution. Our results indicate that autumn cold surges affecting North China can be classified into three types according to their paths: the north type, west type, and northwest type, with occurrences of 12, 16, and 18 respectively. Different types of cold surges have different atmospheric circulation characteristics. The north type is associated with a blocking type of atmospheric circulation pattern, with an enhanced stretching northeast ridge over the Ural Mountains and a transverse trough over Lake Baikal. However, the northwest type is characterized by a ridge–trough–ridge wave-train pattern that is located over the Barents Sea, West Siberian Plain, and Sakhalin Island, respectively. The west-type cold surge is related to a conversion type: a blocking system over the Ural Mountains forms four days before the cold surge occurrence, after which it becomes a wave-train type. The atmospheric signals detected prior to the occurrences of the three types of cold surges are also explored. The main signal of the north-path cold surges is that the energy propagates eastward from the Azores Islands to the Ural Mountains, and then forms a blocking high over the Urals. However, for the northwest-path cold surges, there is a weak trough over the Ural Mountains that gradually strengthens because the blocking high collapses over the Norwegian Sea. The key signal of the formation of the west-path cold surges is a blocking high over the Norwegian Sea’s continuous enhancement and extension to Novaya Zemlya, which results in a transmission of energy to the Ural Mountains and leads to the formation of a blocking system over here. When the above-mentioned different types of atmospheric circulation characteristics appear, the type of cold surge path and its impact area can be potentially forecasted in advance, which may reduce the losses that result from cold surges.

Variation of the Relationship Between Arctic Oscillation and East Asian Winter Monsoon in CCSM3 Simulation

Although recent reports suggest that the negative correlation between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) has been strengthened, it is not clear whether this intermittent relationship is an intrinsic oscillation in the climate system. We investigate the oscillating behavior of the AO-EAWM relationship at decadal time scales using the long-term (500-yr) climate model simulation. The results show that ice cover over the East Siberian Seas is responsible for the change in the coupling strength between AO and EAWM. We found that increased ice cover over these seas strengthens the AO-EAWM linkage, subsequently enhancing cold advection over the East Asia due to anomalous northerly flow via a weakened jet stream. Thus, this strengthened relationship favors more frequent occurrences of cold surges in the EAWM region. Results also indicate that the oscillating relationship between AO and EAWM is a natural variability without anthropogenic drivers, which may help us understand the AO-EAWM linkage under climate change.

Relationship between East Asian Cold Surges and Synoptic Patterns: A New Coupling Framework

Strong cold surge events (CSEs) are some of the most distinct winter weather events in East Asia, impacting natural ecosystems and over 100 million individuals. The impact of such extreme CSEs as driven by synoptic systems is direct and immediate. Changes in large-scale synoptic patterns as potentially affected by changes in the Arctic are further expected to influence CSE occurrences in East Asia. Defying a straightforward analysis, semi-permanent atmospheric systems such as the Siberian High (SH), influencing large-scale synoptic patterns, make the atmospheric circulation highly variable and assessment of CSE onset difficult. Rather varied region-specific metrics are currently adopted for predicting CSE occurrence locally but the fundamental understanding of the onset of CSEs continues to be a major challenge. Based on an analysis of monthly synoptic patterns for three unusual CSEs in East Asia and further extended for eight strong to extreme CSEs, we propose a new coupling framework for an improved understanding and interpretation of the atmosphere dynamics driving CSE onset. The coupling framework involves linkages between the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, and Jet Stream. We also present the first meteorological scale for categorizing the intensity of such unusual CSEs.

Cold Air Mass Analysis of the Record-Breaking Cold Surge Event over East Asia in January 2016

Cold Air Mass Analysis of the Record-Breaking Cold Surge Event over East Asia in January 2016