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Abstract
Strong cold surge events (CSEs) are some of the most distinct winter weather events in East Asia, impacting natural ecosystems and over 100 million individuals. The impact of such extreme CSEs as driven by synoptic systems is direct and immediate. Changes in large-scale synoptic patterns as potentially affected by changes in the Arctic are further expected to influence CSE occurrences in East Asia. Defying a straightforward analysis, semi-permanent atmospheric systems such as the Siberian High (SH), influencing large-scale synoptic patterns, make the atmospheric circulation highly variable and assessment of CSE onset difficult. Rather varied region-specific metrics are currently adopted for predicting CSE occurrence locally but the fundamental understanding of the onset of CSEs continues to be a major challenge. Based on an analysis of monthly synoptic patterns for three unusual CSEs in East Asia and further extended for eight strong to extreme CSEs, we propose a new coupling framework for an improved understanding and interpretation of the atmosphere dynamics driving CSE onset. The coupling framework involves linkages between the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, and Jet Stream. We also present the first meteorological scale for categorizing the intensity of such unusual CSEs.
Highlights
Some of the most damaging weather events over Asia are cold surges [1] that occur during the cold season (Northeast Monsoon/winter monsoon) from November to February
Mean Seal Level Pressure (MSLP) of 1000 hPa on 18 February, indicating strong progression of cold air towards South China. This episode categorization is supported by Shi et al (2010) [40] who categorized the event in four episodes from 10 to 16 January, 18 to 22 January, 25 to 29 January, and 31 January–6 February fourth episode), though their categorization is based on four precipitation episodes that occurred as accompanied by sustained low temperatures
The January–February 2008 cold surge events (CSEs), in addition to having higher Siberian High (SH) and Aleutian Low (AL) strengths and pressure difference (PD) intensity value, had the highest westward longitudinal shift of 22.50 of the AL from its climatological mean, allowing abundance of cold air to stream into mainland China, leading to the CSE to be unprecedented in duration and spatial extent
Summary
Some of the most damaging weather events over Asia are cold surges [1] that occur during the cold season (Northeast Monsoon/winter monsoon) from November to February. Examples include frequency of cold surges with respect to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation [21], the influence of Arctic Oscillation on cold surge occurrence [22], and the role of Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in cold events [23]. Such singular linkage pathways are unlikely due to the complexity of the atmospheric dynamics. These three notable recent CSEs were chosen for our study due to their relatively large impact, recent occurrence and the availability of data. To the best of our knowledge, we propose the first meteorological scale for predicting the strength, intensity, and direction of the CSEs
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