Projected Changes in Dry and Wet Spells over West Africa during Monsoon Season Using Markov Chain Approach

Abstract

This study examines projected changes in dry and wet spell probabilities in West Africa during the July–August–September monsoon season using a Markov chain approach. Four simulations of regional climate models from the CORDEX-Africa program were used to analyze projected changes in intraseasonal variability. The results show an increase in the probability of having a dry day, a dry day preceding a wet day, and a dry day preceding a dry day, and a decrease in the probability of wet days in the Sahel region under anthropogenic forcing scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The decrease in wet days is stronger in the far future and under the RCP8.5 scenario (up to −30%). The study also finds that the probability of consecutive dry days (lasting at least 7 days and 10 days) is expected to increase in western Sahel, central Sahel, and the Sudanian Area under both scenarios, with stronger increases in the RCP8.5 scenario. In contrast, a decrease is expected over the Guinea Coast, with the changes being more important under the RCP4.5. Dry spell probabilities increasing in the Sahel areas and in the northern Sudanian Area is linked to the increase in the very wet days (R95P) in the daily rainfall intensity index (SDII). These changes in dry and wet spell probabilities are important for water management decisions and risk reduction in the energy and agricultural sectors. This study also highlights the need for decision-makers to implement mitigation and adaptation policies to minimize the adverse effects of climate change.