Abstract
Evidence showing a strengthening of intense cold surge event (CSE) in East Asia, e.g. CSE of Jan 2016 and Jan–Feb 2008, is focusing attention towards the science of CSE onset prediction. Predicting the onset of such strong CSEs remains elusive as the extent of these surges varies over spatial and temporal scales. Changes in radiative cooling over Siberia in winter as potentially affected by changes in the Arctic are further expected to influence CSE occurrences in East Asia. Moreover, unprecedented and long lasting CSEs in East Asia have a very distinct Jet Stream pattern via their shifts from the climatological mean, influencing the lower troposphere. Here, using modelling framework we propose a new relationship between Jet Stream and Aleutian Low for identifying and characterizing atmospheric process that leads to CSEs in East Asia. Our results reveal new insight into the mechanisms of CSEs occurrences, the absence of which may lead to major constraints on reducing CSE onset prediction error.
Highlights
Evidence showing a strengthening of intense cold surge event (CSE) in East Asia, e.g. CSE of Jan and Jan–Feb 2008, is focusing attention towards the science of CSE onset prediction
We show that the onset of CSE besides being strongly influenced by Siberian High (SH), is driven by the progression of Jet Stream (JS) in upper air that significantly influences Aleutian Low (AL) in the lower troposphere
Our analysis shows that the amplified period of pressure difference (PD) is more evident for the latter period of 1999–2016 (Fig. 1b) as compared to the earlier period from to 1998, with exception of Jan 1981, which was characterized by a deep polar vortex and a strong planetary
Summary
Evidence showing a strengthening of intense cold surge event (CSE) in East Asia, e.g. CSE of Jan and Jan–Feb 2008, is focusing attention towards the science of CSE onset prediction. We observed the formation of series of low pressure systems before the onset of the CSEs. These low pressure systems are seen to be most intense and more frequent during the month of Jan, followed by Dec, and Feb depending on the strength of the jet streak wind speed (Fig. 4b).
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