Coalition Agreement Research Articles

Beyond coalition and opposition? The effect of councilwide agreements on legislative voting behaviour in Dutch municipalities

AbstractA well‐established finding in the field of legislative behaviour is that parliamentary voting behaviour is nearly always strongly structured by the coalition‐opposition dynamic, even beyond the issues agreed on in the coalition agreement. Can parties break the mould of this coalition‐opposition division? Several Dutch municipal councils work with a councilwide agreement (raadsakkoord) with the specific goal that there is no demarcated coalition and opposition. This could open the political process up for more issue‐driven voting. We test whether council agreements change voting behaviour in the local council. By comparing voting in these municipalities before and after implementing councilwide agreements, we show that these agreements lower the extent to which voting is structured by the coalition‐opposition division. Coalition parties are less likely to vote the same when a councilwide agreement is present. The strength of the coalition‐opposition division depends upon the choices of political parties.

Coalition government, frustrated majorities, and minority rule

Responsiveness to voters is key for democratic rule, yet often fails to occur. We argue that coalition government adds an additional hurdle to responsiveness. Multi-issue policy log-rolls between coalition parties in coalition agreement negotiations, none of which are individually supported by a parliamentary majority, can lead to policy change opposed by a majority, that is: Minority rule. Similarly, coalition agreements can block policy change supported by a parliamentary majority through a veto by one of the government parties, frustrating majority rule. Drawing on data from the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Analysis, we assess how often coalition agreements include policies supported by less than a parliamentary majority, and how often they exclude policies supported by parliamentary majorities. We show that two-thirds of policies included in coalition agreements are not supported by a floor majority, and that 30% of policies supported by a floor majority fail to be included in a coalition agreement.

GERMAN FEDERAL BUDGET: RESULTS OF 2022 AND BUDGET CRISIS OF 2023

The article examines the budget crisis that occurred in Germany at the end of 2023. The results of the execution of the federal budget in terms of expenditures and net borrowings in 2022 are analyzed in comparison with the indicators of the five-year financial plan for 2022–2026, and the main deviations of the fact from the plan are identified. It is shown how the results of the 2022 budget led to an increase in the load on the 2023 budget from the point of view of the implementation of the purpose of renewing the debt brake set in the 2021–2025 Coalition Agreement. Further the events are presented that occurred during the crisis of 2023, which was caused by the decision of the Federal Constitutional Court on the incompetence of transferring net government borrowings from one year to other years (this transfer has been carried out by the ruling coalition in February 2022). Measures regarding the additional budget for 2023 and the new budget for 2024 are listed, that have been adopted by the government to implement the court verdict and return to the debt brake policy. The impact of the budget crisis on the accuracy of budget planning for 2024 is analyzed. The author comes to the conclusion: the results of 2024 will show an interruption in the barely begun post-pandemic restoration of the budget planning’s reliability.

Pre-electoral coalition agreement from the Black–Scholes point of view

A political party can be considered as a company whose value depends on the voters support i.e. on the percentage of population supporting the party. Dynamics of the support is thus as a stochastic process with a deterministic growth rate perturbed by a white noise modeled through the Wiener process. This is in an analogy with the option modeling where the stock price behaves similarly as the voters’ support. While in the option theory we have the question of fair price of an option, the question that we ask here is what is a reasonable level of support that the coalition of a “major” party (safely above the election threshold) and a “minor” party (under or around the election threshold) should achieve in order for the “minor” party to get one more representative. We shall elaborate some of the conclusions in the case of recent elections in Montenegro (June, 2023) which are particularly interesting due to lots of political subjects entering the race.

Reformoptionen der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung

Abstract Demographic change and thus the ageing of the population is progressing rapidly in Germany. A reform of the statutory pension insurance (GRV) is therefore becoming increasingly urgent, with the German government already promising in its 2021 coalition agreement that “pensions must be reliable and adequate”. Most recently, the German Council of Economic Experts presented several reform options in its annual report, which are intended to ensure adequate old-age provisions with sustainable nancial viability. However, these proposals were not without objections within the Council. The question therefore arises as to how the statutory pension scheme can be reformed to ensure that adequate and a ordable pensions are nanced in a stable and sustainable manner.

Addressing The Vulnerability Of Energy Consumers

In the shift to a climate-neutral society and economy, an essential solution for renewable energy is at decentralized energy system relying on more distributed generation, energy storage, and more active involvement of consumers. In the European Union (EU), the Clean Energy Package puts consumers at the center of EU energy policy and introduces a wide range of initiatives to engage consumers in the transition to clean energy. In addition to implementing EU policies, EU Member States are also developing and implementing ambitious laws and policies related to the energy transition and climate change. For example, theNetherlands, which serves as a case study in this article, committed in the Rutte IV coalition agreement to emit less than 55% CO2 compared to 1990 by 2030 and to be completely climate neutral by 2050. The country aims to switch to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power and develop a robust and flexible energy infrastructure system that can be operated on a smaller scale and decentralized. Such transformations have profound implications for understanding the role of the consumer in the Dutch energy market and highlight the need for greater consumer involvement in the connection, transmission, delivery, and use of energy. This article aims to answer the overarching question of how the principles of good governance (transparency, effectiveness, accountability, and participation) can contribute to better protecting (vulnerable) consumers from governance vulnerabilities to ensure a just and smart energy transition. It focuses on the consumer protection approach introduced in the proposal for the new Energy Act (2023) in the Netherlands. The article examines to what extent the principles of good governance are effectively incorporated and elaborated in the Dutch legal framework for the protection of energy consumers. Ultimately, it seeks to provide recommendations on how to improve support for vulnerable consumers in the Netherlands and empower them to actively participate in energy markets and make informed choices. Although the article focuses primarily on the Dutch experience, it can offer valuable lessons and guidance to other countries that must deal with the challenges and opportunities associated with the transition to renewable energy sources and a more digitized energy market.

Glosa do wyroku Naczelnego Sądu Administracyjnego z 16 grudnia 2022 r., sygn. akt III OSK 5482/21

In the commented judgment, the Supreme Administrative Court (hereinafter: the Supreme Administrative Court) made a significant confirmation that a coalition agreement concluded by political parties constitutes public information within the meaning of the Constitution. The author emphasizes the legitimacy of the Supreme Administrative Court’s ruling but raises some contentious and questionable issues.

Австрийская конституционная модель разграничения компетенции между Федерацией и землями

The constitutional development of the Austrian state at the turn of the XIX – early XX centuries was characterized by a combination of centralist and federalist tendencies. One of the controversial issues during the monarchy, and later in the First Austrian Republic, was the issue of the division of competence between the central government and its constituent parts. The Austrian half of the monarchy (Cisleithania), despite the long tradition of separate crown lands, was a unitary state, although decentralized. The division of competence between the center and the lands was based on the February Patent of 1861 and the December Constitution of 1867. At the same time, the issue of the correlation of different types of laws has not received certain regulation. In constitutional practice, there is an indisputable doctrine about the equal force of the imperial laws and the laws of the lands. After the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the state of German Austria was created, which, according to Austrian legal historians, arose as a decentralized unitary state. The constitutional processes took place with the active participation of political parties. In the coalition agreement concluded on October 17, 1919 between the Social Democrats and the Christian Socialists, it was stated that the constitution should be adopted as soon as possible. By the beginning of the work of the Subcommittee of the Constitutional Committee in July 1920, agreement had been reached on a significant part of the constitutional text. At the same time, the issues of the division of competence between the Federation and the lands, as well as the relationship between federal law and land law, remained controversial. The Federal Constitutional Law, adopted on October 1, 1920 by the Constituent National Assembly, establishes a complex model for dividing competence between the federation and the lands. The theoretical justification for this approach to the regulation of the division of competence was presented in the first commentary to the Federal Constitutional Law, co-authored by Hans Kelsen (Professor at the University of Vienna, member of the Constitutional Court), Georg Froelich (Adviser to the Minister of the Federal Chancellery) and Adolf Merkle (Professor at the University of Vienna) (1922). The Austrian model of the division of competence between the federation and the lands remains unique, theoretically grounded, and characterized by political and institutional continuity.

Against All Odds? A Discourse Network Analysis of the Political Debate About the German Passenger Car Toll Act

ABSTRACT In this article, we analyse the policy process of the German passenger Car Toll Act in Germany by means of a discourse network analysis. The Car Toll Act is particularly interesting as a ‘least-likely case’ for analysing a successful policy adoption as it was highly unpopular and faced massive criticism not only among the opposition but also among the government itself. To contribute to the understanding of the policy process behind such an unlikely policy, we analyse the reporting of two German quality newspapers, the Süddeutsche Zeitung and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, by means of qualitative content analysis. Based on a total number of 329 articles, we examine the discursive structures of political demands for and rejections of the passenger Car Toll Act in the media public sphere between July 2013 and October 2014. Our findings provide novel evidence on the importance of political discourse in the process leading to the adoption of unpopular policies, indicating that the combination of institutional leverage (coalition agreement and office) and discursive persistence can lead to policy change without clear majorities.

Governance beyond the ballot: Norms, populism, and post-election preferences

Governance beyond the ballot: Norms, populism, and post-election preferences In this article, Mariken A.C.G. van der Velden, Professor of Political Communication at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, explores citizens’ preferences for government formation. When comparing proportional voting systems with majoritarian ones, scholars often highlight that the former frequently yield inconclusive election outcomes, wherein politicians, rather than voters, determine the composition of the governing parties. In multiparty democracies, post- election discussions among parties with divergent preferences generally lead to the necessity of compromising on a shared coalition agreement to establish a government. Nevertheless, due to the compromises inherent in coalitions, some critics may label them as undemocratic. In the present day, both analysts and academics acknowledge prolonged delays in the establishment of coalition governments within Europe. For example, the 2021 Dutch election triggered an unprecedentedly protracted government negotiation process, culminating in a government that collapsed after eighteen months.

The ‘Constitutional Reform’ and the Occupation

AbstractThe ‘constitutional reform’ planned by the government that assumed power in Israel in December 2022 is not an end in itself. Its aim is to provide the basis for planned policies and actions of the government that are incompatible with Israel's present constitutional order, and that are unlikely to stand up to judicial review before the present judges of the Supreme Court. This article discusses the connection between various parts of the reform and the plans to make a radical change in Israel's policies in the occupied West Bank. It examines the coalition agreement between PM Netanyahu's Likud party and the Religious Zionist Party, and exposes the connection between the commitment in that agreement to the policies regarding the occupation and the planned ‘reform’.

S9-2 Dutch national falls prevention program- implementation challenges

Abstract Purpose In the Netherlands, a very ambitious falls prevention program is being implemented in 2023 and 2024. Falls among older adults lead to a high burden on healthcare and high societal costs. This program is therefore part of the current government coalition agreement. Each year one in seven persons over 65 should be screened on fall risk and should be stimulated to reduce fall risk. The whole program includes specific falls prevention programs (FPPs) as well as Physical activity (PA) programs outside these FPPs to keep fall risk restricted. Large responsibility is given to municipalities for implementation at the local level, and to regional public health services at a higher level. Project description At present there is no good organisation of falls prevention. A whole infrastructure has to be set up to be able to carry out the prevention program. This is coordinated by VeiligheidNL. It involves a considerable number of stakeholders and different working packages on FFPs, implementation, and communication. Starting in 2022, a number of sessions have been held to inform municipalities, regional health services, and professionals. Funding frameworks are set up including refunding of FPP participation and support of coordination by municipalities. As part of the process, we evaluated among scientists, PA professionals and municipalities what is needed to organise PA for maintenance after FPPs and for people without increased risk. This includes more available organised PA, increase in frequency and intensity of current group PA, and involving regular sports clubs to increase overall capacity. Most municipalities need to take a much stronger coordinating role, including also a professional with ‘broker’ role, generally the so-called neighbourhood sports coach (NSC). This professional guides older people to suitable PA and is a connector between health, social care and PA professionals. Conclusions The ambitious falls prevention program, supported by considerable financial resources, has the potential to give a large boost to PA in older adults. There are still a lot of challenges at the national as well as local level before implementation is successful, but several locations have already managed to develop a good infrastructure.

Geriatrics and geriatric aspects in the German coalition agreement of 2021

The proportion of older people in Germany is increasing. By the next federal election in 2025 the Federal Statistical Office of Germany expects that one third of the population will have reached retirement age. Older people are thus one of the largest voter groups and are particularly politically relevant. How does the federal government support the living conditions of this voter group? What are the plans of the federal government regarding medical care of older people? Acontent analysis of the coalition agreement was carried out with respect to aspects of demographic change, geriatric care and living conditions of older people. The coded text passages were categorized using amixed inductive-deductive approach. Finally, the implementation progress of concrete projects after 1.5years in office was evaluated. This study identified and categorized 23passages with just under 620 words (about 1% of the total text) in the coalition agreement. Of the passages nine were assigned to the topic older population, six passages to medical care and eight to nursing care. Of the 23passages 14contained concrete plans for action or target dates. In the first 1.5years of the federal government, partial progress could be identified in 4of these, while no projects were realized. Overall, the coalition agreement shows an awareness for an ageing population. In view of the demographic development, however, few solutions are proposed for genuine geriatric aspects. The first year in office was strongly influenced by other topics, which resulted in unplanned laws and regulations and projects from the coalition agreement faded into the background.

Haushaltsstreit: Schuldenbremse, Steuern oder Ausgaben priorisieren?

Abstract Fiscal policy has increasingly become a field of conflict within the federal government in recent months. While the coalition agreement provides for compliance with the debt brake, investments in the energy turnaround, and further social and family policy reforms (such as basic child security, care reform, energy turnaround, infrastructure investments), the financial policy leeway is being reduced as a result of the energy price crisis and the interest rate turnaround. Thus, the Finance Minister’s plans point to drastically increasing expenditures for debt service. Since the debt brake aims at limiting government deficit, this directly reduces the leeway for primary expenditure if one refrains from tax increases and the debt brake takes effect in 2024. It remains to be seen whether the coalition’s previously planned projects can be implemented or whether new priorities should be set.

Do voters want their parties to be office- or policy-seekers in coalition negotiations?

Do voters want their party to be office- or policy-seekers in coalition negotiations? This question has been left unstudied in political science research so far. While existing research shows that policies matter for voters when forming their preferences for coalitions, in this study it is argued that voters find it at the same time important that their preferred party gains offices. Specifically, voters’ office-seeking considerations are expected to increase the more indifferent they are to the policy content of a coalition agreement. To test this assumption, an original conjoint experiment among Green Party voters in the context of the German federal election in 2021 has been conducted. The findings demonstrate that voters’ office-seeking considerations become more important the more similar coalition agreements are with regard to their policy content. These findings have important implications for the understanding of voters’ preferences regarding coalitions.

Bildung nach Corona

Abstract Education plays a central role in the economic development of a country, which is why the coalition government announced various projects in education policy in its coalition agreement. In addition to the DigitalPakt Schule (Digital Pact for Schools), which is intended to improve digital infrastructure at schools, the programme “Startchancen” (Starting Opportunities) should ensure better educational opportunities and a cooperation requirement will increase cooperation between the states and the federal government. However, on the one hand, large gaps in education have opened up due to the lockdowns in the pandemic, and on the other hand, schools continue to complain about acute teacher shortages. In addition, there are new challenges, such as the increasing number of children who have fled from crisis regions. However, in view of demographic change and the looming shortage of labour and skilled workers, young people must be well prepared for their professions.

Financing health promotion, prevention and innovation despite the rising healthcare costs: How can the new German government square the circle?

The German health system is under pressure due to increasing costs of healthcare provision and rising demand for health services. With the new coalition government, Germany has increased efforts to build a modern, innovative infrastructure for prevention and high-quality health services. The coalition agreement has a strong climate, innovation, and sustainability focus, reflecting at the same time the ambition of the new government to implement a preventive, inter-connected, and modern healthcare system in Germany. However, the agreement lacks detailed information on the achievement of the plans, especially concerning the question of how those measures should be funded in light of increasing expenditures for healthcare. Thus, the objectives of this study are to interpret the new government’s plans and answer the question of how Germany in the new legislative period can ensure and fund population-based prevention programmes, health-promoting measures and innovative solutions despite the rising healthcare costs. By analysing the relevant content of the coalition agreement and drawing on an expert workshop, this paper suggests the establishment of a prevention fund and flexible remuneration model for digitalised and innovative forms of care in the new legislative period. Our findings may help identify feasible approaches to sustainable financing of health promotion, prevention and innovation in the German healthcare system.

Binding Capital to Free Purpose: Steward Ownership in Germany

Abstract 622This paper discusses steward ownership, a concept of business ownership aiming at long-term and purpose-oriented entrepreneurship developed in Germany. Steward ownership can be seen in the context of the current worldwide discussion of corporate purpose and legal innovations like the US-American benefit corporation and the French société a mission has developed a unique approach. The concept is currently put into practice using German company law and the law of foundations. However, in the coalition agreement of the current German government, a new legal form is envisaged to facilitate the founding of steward-owned businesses. The paper presents the concepts and discusses a draft law developed as food for thought for the legislature.

Primary Care Aspects in the German Coalition Agreement 2021

Despite statewide rising numbers of family physicians during the last legislative period, their overall health care providing capacity has declined, mainly due to their working part-time. In the legislative period starting in 2021, this trend appears likely to continue. The German Health System Advisory Council foresees the number of general practitioners (GPs) who will have to be replaced by the next federal election in 2025 as exceeding 26,000. This results in a need for political action to sustain the primary care workforce. We conducted a content analysis of the coalition agreement 2021 between SPD, Greens and FDP with regard to explicit and related topics of GP care. A mixed inductive-deductive classification of the included text passages was used to thematically structure the results. A total of 34 relevant text passages were identified between pages 8 to 139 of the coalition agreement. Family physician care was explicitly addressed only once, when the planned abolition of budgeting was discussed. Other proposals which affect family physicians work included reduction of bureaucracy, prevention, or easier access to medical care for disadvantaged groups. Other passages of the coalition agreement regarding security of medical supply, included demand planning, innovative healthcare models, and cross-sectoral care. One focus of the coalition agreement was on digitalization. It mentions e. g., a digitization strategy for the healthcare sector, telemedicine services, and the electronic medical record, including opt-out possibility. Other assessed passages included projects to facilitate research or climate change and health. Despite the lack of mention of family physicians in the coalition agreement, many projects relate to the work of family physicians. Some of the ideas mentioned have also already been written down by the German Society for General Practice and Family Medicine (DEGAM) in its positions on the future of general practice, digitization or climate change and health. The planned projects in the coalition agreement have the potential to strengthen health care by family doctors and also make it more attractive for young doctors. However, further measures may be necessary to maintain GP care in the short and long term.

The first in German history comprehensive National Security Strategy

On June 14, 2023, the Cabinet of Ministers of Germany presented the comprehensive National Security Strategy. This document was provided for in the coalition agreement (November 2021), it was due by the end of 2022, but got delayed by 6 months. The strategy must be approved by the German parliament. The author analyzes its main provisions and significance for German foreign policy.