Coal Trade Research Articles

Exporting global warming? Coal trade and the shale gas boom

AbstractWe examine the effect of the US shale gas boom on the international trade and consumption of coal and emissions. We estimate a structural model that links the domestic to the international coal market and use it to simulate counterfactual scenarios. Our results show that the total quantity of coal traded around the world in the absence of the boom is essentially the same as the actual. Moreover, the change in total coal consumed worldwide is also small. Although a compositional change towards coal with different heat content could have significant environmental effects, we show that this is not the case either. Hence, US coal exports simply displaced other coal exports without affecting the total CO and SO emissions. Despite the small overall effects, several countries experience a substantial decrease in their imports of US coal and the associated emissions in the absence of the boom.

Naval Interrogations of PoWs in the Black Sea War, 1914 and 1916

This article describes two cases where prisoners of war captured in the 1914–17 Black Sea naval conflict were interrogated. In the first case a captured Russian naval officer witnessed an operationally significant event after his interrogation, and covertly reported this via a coded letter. The second case, of an Armenian engineer, reflected a wider Russian practice of capturing and debriefing ‘Ottoman’ sailors. The article sets both cases in the wider context of Russia’s naval campaign against the Ottoman coal trade.

Mechanism and Algorithm for Stable Trading Matching between Coal Mining and Power Generation Companies in China

This paper is concerned with stable trading between the coal mining and power generation companies in China. Under the current marketized coal and planned electricity price systems, barriers to price shifting between coal and electricity are created and conflicts between the two sectors are aggravated. The stable trading matching between coal mining and power generation companies is not only an effective means to resolve the conflict in the coal trading market, but also a ballast stone for price stabilization and supply guarantees in coal trading. Based on the two-sided matching theory, this paper starts from the micro market preference and matching willingness of coal mining and power generation companies, puts forward the conceptual framework of the pairwise stable matching of both sides, innovates a mechanism for trading between coal mining and power generation companies, and designs a stable trading matching algorithm. The algorithm has certain theoretical innovation significance from the matching problem of non-separable commodities to that of separable commodities considering the trading volume between coal mining and power generation companies. Furthermore, it is a complement and perfection of the existing coal–power trading platform in its transaction mechanism and trading function. The results reveal that the trading relations between coal mining and power generation companies under the stable matching mechanism are resistant to disintegration and that the pairwise stable matching result is sensitive.

Storying Strata: Entangling Coal and Energy Futures in Australia and India

ABSTRACT This article argues that the storying of fossiliferous geological strata opens up geopolitical possibilities for climate justice and ethical energy futures. Our more-than-human approach to the fossil-fuel industry and more specifically coal trade is sparked by ongoing political controversies and protests that have erupted over the development of the Galilee coal Basin in central Queensland, Australia by Indian mining conglomerates. Through a focus on this case study, we first draw attention to toxic border thinking on development, fossil fuel energy futures and climate change enabled by state-corporate collusions. Second, we argue for opening up decolonial horizons by dwelling in the border – the border that alerts us to the distributed agency of geologic life and vitality of fossilised seed ferns. Thinking with deep time and geological strata we explore the geopolitics of ‘clean coal’ and limitless groundwater that justifies mining in the Galilee basin and the establishment of new thermal plants on Adivasi lands in India. Attention to the materiality of fly ash and its transformation into cement for construction in India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan highlights more sustainable energy use, but we argue that this carbonised cement would also linger as a future fossil from the Anthropocene that refuses extinction. Finally, by thinking with the artwork Towards a Glass Monument (2017–2019) by Tom Nicholson and Geoffrey Wallace we encounter a method for shifting viewer perspectives on coal from its identity as a homogeneous fuel source to a delicate historical record of past flora. The article demonstrates that even when worlds inhabited by racialised and marginalised peoples are silenced, the materiality of coal, ash, water and the visual echo of fossiliferous plant spores seed more-than-human framings of justice. We position both our case study exploration and Towards a Glass Monument as examples of how to story strata with the aim of opening up geopolitical possibilities for more-than-human climate justice.

STUDY ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE ON COMPLEX NETWORK

This paper builds a complex network of weighted and directed coal trade based on the international coal trade data in the United Nations trade database from 1999 to 2018, specifically analyzes the trade scale, trade relations, and trade distribution and other characteristics of international coal trade, and determines the main trade core countries and trade hub countries. The results show that the scale of international coal trade has grown steadily, but the transformation of trade relations is complicated. Especially in the context of increasing trade frictions, trade links between countries have decreased significantly, trade balance has declined, and trade agglomeration has increased. Australia, the United States, Japan and other countries are big coal trading countries, while the United States, South Africa, India and other countries are important trading hubs. Based on the theory of competitive advantage, this paper proposes corresponding countermeasures for different countries to enhance their competitive advantages.

Assessing spatially multistage carbon transfer in the life cycle of energy with a novel multi-flow and multi-node model: A case of China's coal-to-electricity chain

Fully assessing the spatial carbon transfer associated with energy production and consumption activities helps to better understand the drivers of related carbon emissions and clarify the corresponding carbon reduction responsibility. However, previous work based on the single network method and input-output analysis is not ideal for boundary integrity, data reliability, or scale generality. Here, an original multi-flow and multi-node model is proposed, taking the coal-to-electricity chain as an example to explain how to address these challenges. The model ingeniously integrates the trade network of coal used for electricity generation and the transmission network of coal power to compose a spatialised coal-to-electricity chain, to address how embodied carbon emissions are transferred successively in geography. This is applied to a Chinese case to demonstrate its scientificity and advancement. The results show that 118.3 Mt CO2eq and 598.8 Mt CO2eq of carbon are interprovincially transferred due to coal trade and electricity transmission, respectively. The two-stage carbon transfer leads to a significant difference of 504.7 Mt CO2eq in production- and consumption-based carbon accounting. If the embodied carbon emissions in the coal trade are not accounted, a total of 237.0 Mt CO2eq of embodied carbon emissions would be omitted. Only a small part of carbon transfer with coal trade undergoes a secondary transfer with electricity transmission, accompanied by a small amount of carbon reflux or exchange, which is suggested to optimise the spatial pattern of the coal-to-electricity chain in a targeted manner. The proposed multi-flow and multi-node model is flexible in sectoral and spatial scales and its design idea can also help other energy activities to fully assess carbon transfer.

Indonesian Coal Exports: Dynamic Panel Analysis Approach

Coal is a mineral fuel commodity considered important as a source ofenergy and is traded among countries. Indonesia is one of the largest coal producing countries in the world. This study aimed to analyse the relationship between the net export volume, GDP per capita of destination countries, real exchange rate, and Indonesian coal export prices. The existence of a causal relationship between exports and economic growth shows that there is a relationship between net exports and future economic growth. Economic growth is an increase in people's per capita income without paying attention to changes in the economic structure.The study uses panel data of 5 biggest coal trading partner countries of Indonesia during the period 2015-2019, by using the dynamic panel analysis method, where a dependent variable is not only determined by the value of independent variables at the research period, but is also determined by the value of previous period. The dynamic panel method is characterized by the lag of the dependent variable which is correlated with the residual among the independent variables. The dynamic panel data regression method can be used to determine the short-term effect,and the long-term effect as well.Based on the estimation results of the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) Arellano Bond, in the study period the exchange rate and export prices had a significant negative effect on the volume of Indonesian coal exports. GDP per capita has no significant effect on the volume of Indonesia's coal exports.Furthermore, the short-term elasticity approach for the exchange rate is -0.029159 and for the long term is 0.3616521. These results indicate that the calculation of the short-term and long-term elasticity of the exchange rate (ER) is inelastic and negative with different magnitudes. In addition, it explains that in the short term an increase in the exchange rate of 1 percent will reduce net exports in the short term by 2.9 percent.

Designing Information Technology Architecture Based on TOGAF Methodology At Padang Karunia Group

Padang Karunia Group (PKG) is engaged in four main business areas coal mining, coal trading, mining contractor and infrastructure and has consistently delivered coal product to domestic and overseas market. There are problems in the business processes of PKG’s everyday operations, such as: the waiting time for reports is over one day when it should be a few hours, data has more than one version and is not accurate, and demurrage (a charge payable to the owner of a chartered ship in respect of failure to load or discharge the ship within the time agreed). Issues occur because the role of IT is not optimal. The purpose of this study was to design an information technology (IT) architecture suitable for supporting the operation of the PKG. The correct IT architecture design can help companies to achieve their vision and mission. The right IT architecture for PKG will support all of its operations. The design of the IT architecture could be done with the existing framework using: EAP, TOGAF, FEA, DODAF, and Gartner Methodology. For this work the TOGAF was selected because it is open source, systematic, and thorough. Analysis was done using a business processes approach to obtain the IT needs mapped to the principles of business, information systems, applications, and information technology. The results from this study are a business architecture design, an information systems architecture, and a technology architecture appropriate to support the business of PKG.

DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET RESEARCH BASEDON CORRELATIONANDREGRESSIONANALYSIS

Thecorrelationandregressionanalysisappliedtothefreightratesdemonstrates a fairly good results which is confirmed by the relevant estimates of the models.However, the impact of each determinant on the freight rates is not the same in the different timeperiod. Moreover, it is important to focus on the certain segment of dry bulk freight market moreaccuratelytoobtainthemathematicalmodelreflectingsegmentspecific.The study is aimed to develop the methodological basic for applying the correlation andregressionanalysistothefreightratesontheexampleofBalticPanamaxIndex.Various linear regression model structures for freight rates have been proposed,withappropriate detailing of the underlying market determinants. It has been determined that eachfreightmarketsegment is characterized a certain specificityofdemand,as wellas competitionwith other segments, these should be taken into account when building regression models. Theideas suggested have been applied to Panamax segment. The Panamax bulk carriers serve mostlythe grain, coal and ore; thus, these three types of goods are included in the model as demanddeterminants. The correlation and regression analysis were used to establish and mathematicallydraw the dependence of freight indexes on the set of the major freight market determinants ontheexampleoftheBalticPanamaxIndex.The output shows the obtained regression model can be used to predict the Baltic PanamaxIndex. Based on the forecasting of considered factors -seaborn grain trade, seaborn ore trade,seaborn coal trade, Panamax bulk carriers’ sector of merchant fleet, Panamax bulk carriersshipbuilding,Panamaxbulkcarriersscrapping,thevaluesoftheBalticPanamaxIndexforfollowingtimepointscanbeestimated.Two approaches were considered –the regression analysis for original data and forlogarithmically transformed data. Whether the first approach with the original data or the secondonewiththe logarithmically transformed data is applied,theresultsapprove theregressionanalysis use to establish the relationship between freight indexes (freight rates) and the set of themajor freightmarketdeterminants.Keywords: freight rates, Panamax bulk carriers, model, market determinants, maritimetransportation,forecast.

How to Integrate the Work of Coal Mine Trade Union into Safety Production

How to Integrate the Work of Coal Mine Trade Union into Safety Production

Regional energy diversity and sovereignty in different 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways

Achieving the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a fast transition of the energy system. This leads to consequences for energy security, which a central element of the energy strategy of many countries. Important dimensions of energy security are energy diversity and energy sovereignty. The main objective of this study is to assess how different strategies and climate objectives affect these dimensions. For this, we developed a set of model-based mitigation scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C and 1.5 °C for 16 world regions. The scenarios differ in the energy transition strategy, focusing either more on intermittent renewables or lifestyle change. We show that energy supply diversity increases in deep mitigation scenarios in practically all regions, especially in India and China. This is due to strong growth of bioenergy and intermittent renewables, together with less fossil fuel use. There is also a substantial decrease in total energy trade in mitigation scenarios with a strong focus on intermittent renewables. Without such a strong focus on renewables, the decrease in oil and coal trade is offset by additional trade in bioenergy. However, more trade in bioenergy leads to a higher diversity in energy exporters.

Volatility and Risk in the Energy Market: A Trade Network Approach

This paper evaluates the effect of energy trade networks on the price volatility of coal, oil, natural gas, and electricity. This research conducts a longitudinal analysis using a time series of static coal trade networks to generate a dynamic trade network. It uses the component causality index as a leading indicator of the price volatility of the energy market. This research finds out that the component causality index, based on degree centrality, anticipates or moves together with coal volatility and, to a lesser degree, with natural gas and electricity volatility for the period 1998–2014. The proposed index could be integrated into a risk management system for investors and regulators. The broad impact of this research lies in the understanding of mechanisms of the instability and risk of the energy sector as a result of a complex interaction of the network of producers and traders.

Measuring dynamic competitive relationship and intensity among the global coal importing trade

Until today, the volume and trade relationships of the global coal trade still follow an increasing trend, which adversely affects both the environment and coal supply security. However, whether the possibility exists to change this trend to a decrease in global coal trade competition remains unknown. If this were possible, the volume and relationships of coal trade would gradually decrease. To address this question, this paper applies the complex network model and comprehensively explores the dynamic competitive relationship and intensity among the global coal import trade. At the global level, the results indicate that more competitive relationships regarding coal imports emerge, and the coal import competition network has changed from a core periphery structure to a reticular structure. In addition, the competitive intensity of the global coal trade continues to rise. At the regional level, the role of the Asian-Pacific region, led by Japan and China, in the evolution of this competitive pattern is increasingly becoming prominent. In contrast, the competitive intensity of European importers has declined since 2007. At the national level, Japan bore the greatest competitive pressure among all coal-importing countries from 1998 to 2007, when it was replaced by China. The intensity of competition in China has increased fiercely, from seventh in 2009 to first in 2016. Finally, based on the results, meaningful policy implications are presented. For example, it is recommended that the result of record-high levels of coal competition in Asia should receive more attention, and a more appropriate use of coal should be developed.

Экономическая оценка вариантов перспективного развития производственной подсистемы экспортно-ориентированных угольных компаний

The authors review the challenges and trends of the Russian coal exports and describe fields that are potentially attractive for exports in the new coal mining centers in the East of Russia. A conclusion is made that the only option available for the Russian coal industry in the eastern parts of the country is the export-oriented sustainable development in conditions when the global coal trade is shifting towards the Asia-Pacific region. Scientific and methodological support for the implementation of investment projects of Russian coal companies has been developed for the new economic conditions. The economic and mathematical model is proposed to assess the options of perspective development of production subsystem of an export-oriented coal company, which helps to define the parameters of a rational option to develop the coal sector including the volumes of annual expenses of investors to obtain the highest revenue from coal export.

The coal trade surplus and merchant seafarers in British-Norwegian relations during the First World War

During the First World War, more than 800 Norwegian ships were sunk by hostile action, with a loss of about 2,100 seafarers. The Norwegian merchant fleet was extremely important for Norway's economy and for securing the import of vital goods. In addition, Britain and her allies needed goods carried in Norwegian merchant ships, such as coal shipped across the Channel to France. This article examines the relationship between Britain and Norway during the war, concentrating on the roles of two important resources, coal and maritime labour. The first part of the article outlines the wartime Anglo-Norwegian relationship. Negotiations around the so-called ‘coal trade surplus’, and how the surplus was allocated, are analysed in the second section. The coal trade surplus derived from British coal exports to Norway and was transferred from the British to the Norwegian Government in 1919. The British Ministry of Shipping, in recognition of the efforts of Norwegian seafarers, demanded that part of the surplus should be allocated to their well-being and to a memorial for the Norwegian merchant seafarers who had perished during the war.

The future of coal investment, trade, and stranded assets

The future of coal investment, trade, and stranded assets

THE DETERMINANTS OF INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS DEMAND TO SIX ASIAN COUNTRIES

Coal is one of the most needed commodities globally because of its power plants and industrial machinery. According to World Coal Institute (2018), the world coal trade is dominated by several producing countries, Indonesia (ranked 2nd with 28.21 percent). Indonesia's coal exports are influenced by determinants of demand from export destination countries. This study will test at least four demand determinants in destination countries for their effects on Indonesian exports: exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, population, and coal production. The study used six Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, India, Thailand, Philippines, and Malaysia) over 2008-2018. The methodology used is multiple linear regression with a series of chow and Hausman tests. Each variable has been tested by t-test (partial) and f test (simultaneous), and R2 test to analyze the percentage of the influence of the model on the dependent variable. This study revealed that the variable foreign exchange reserves and population growth of six Asian countries have a significant positive effect on Indonesia's coal export. Simultaneously, the exchange rate and coal production of the destination countries were not proven to have a negative impact but positively affected coal export. All variables have a significant and partially significant effect so that the model can explain the coal export variable at 93.08 percent (Adjust R-squared).Keywords: Coal Export, Demand DeterminantsJEL Classification: C2, F1, Q31

Perbandingan Data Hasil Metode B&W dan GWC untuk Klasifikasi Slagging Abu Batu Bara LRC

Slagging classification is generally listed in coal COA in coal trading transactions using one of the methods of determining slagging classification so that coal is ensured boiler friendly (low/medium classification). The paper aims to prove the tendency of two methods of determining slagging classification (B&W and GWC) on the results of certain classifications in LRC coal. The research method uses a quantitative method by collecting LRC coal COA data on a coal-fired steam power plant for a year of coal receipt (81 lots) issued by a laboratory that has been accredited by KAN (National Accreditation Committee). According to the method of GWC, ashes of entire lots are classified as LRC ash. While the method of B&W, there are 62 lots of ash classified as lignitic ash and 19 lots of ash classified as bituminous ash. This research has shown that the GWC method shows 79 lots of ash (97.53%) has low and medium classification and 2 lots of ash (2.47%) have a high classification; the method from B&W shows 19 lots of ash (23.46%) has a low classification and 62 lots of ash (76.54%) has a severe classification.

The death valley of coal – Modelling COVID-19 recovery scenarios for steam coal markets

This paper examines medium and long-term perspectives for global steam coal production and trade, considering the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and plausible recovery scenarios in its aftermath. We use an interdisciplinary approach to develop a range of stylized global coal demand scenarios until 2040 depicting the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting recovery stimuli. Additional insights are gained by adjusting trade restrictions of key countries within the coal sector model COALMOD-World to resemble plausible post-COVID-19 policy and market dynamics. Results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic might cause an “L” or “\\” shape instead of the hoped for “V” or “U” shaped recovery of the coal industry. Regional effects vary, as the Atlantic market dries out first, causing shifts in trade patterns in the Pacific market. Moreover, announced trade restrictions could change dramatically the composition of the international steam coal trade. However, even significantly reduced coal consumption levels in low-coal post-COVID-19 scenarios would still be too high to comply with the global climate targets. This emphasizes the importance of concentrated policy efforts in the pandemic aftermath to manage a coal decline consistent with global climate targets while bringing just transitions efforts substantially forward, in particular in vulnerable coal-dependent countries and regions.

Investigating the outcome for South African coal supply to the domestic market when faced with declining demand for exported coal

This paper investigates the implications for coal supply security for the domestic South African market when faced with weaker export demand. It expands on a previously introduced model of domestic coal trade, DOTRAMOD, by accounting for mining profit, the opening of new mines and the closing of loss-making mines. The results indicate that declining demand for exported coal would result in declining profits for multi-product mines. This would lead to the closure of some mines and reduced coal supply to domestic power producers. These results highlight the importance of the mine investment problem in commodity market studies.