Coal Trade Research Articles

The employment impacts of fossil fuel trade across cities in China: A telecoupling perspective

The trade of resources geographically bridges production and consumption, driving telecoupling between resource extraction and distant consumption. However, the telecoupling between employment and fossil fuels has not been quantitatively analyzed yet, presenting a barrier to employment management under the energy transition away from fossil fuels. Here we investigate the telecoupled employment driven by intercity fossil fuel trade in China. A spatially explicit inventory of 989 coal mines, 642 oil fields, and 461 gas fields has been compiled for analysis. The results show that 1560 k of workers extract fossil fuels to satisfy external energy demands (referred to as telecoupled employment), accounting for 70 % of total employment for fossil fuel extraction in China. The coal trade drives 58 % of the total telecoupled employment while oil and gas drive 42 %. 26 % of intercity telecoupled employment is transferred intra-provincially whereas 74 % is transferred interprovincially. 222 cities drive more employment from the consumption-based perspective than from the production-based perspective, while 91 cities see the reverse. It is of significance for fossil fuel exporters to incorporate this telecoupling (e.g. the direction and scale of telecoupled employment) into city policies to assess the transboundary employment impacts of the changes in energy demands of importers.

The Rise and Fall of Cullercoats as a Coal Exporting Port in the Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries

Although the coal industry in the Northeast of England during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries has been the subject of extensive study by historians over many years, most research has focussed mainly on larger centres of the coal trade such as Newcastle upon Tyne and Sunderland. Less well known is the significant contribution to coal exports made by some of the smaller communities and harbours along the Northumberland and Durham coasts. During the latter years of the seventeenth and early years of the eighteenth century the small coastal village of Cullercoats, just North of Tynemouth, became a significant coal and salt exporting port following the development of a colliery at nearby Whitley. Customs records of Cullercoats coal exports were included, as a Lesser Creek, in the Exchequer Port Books of Newcastle upon Tyne. Two Newcastle Exchequer Port Books containing complete records of Cullercoats coastal exports for 1702–1703 and overseas exports for 1698–1699 have survived, these include the names of the people and ships involved and provide a fascinating insight into the impact of the coal trade upon a small coastal port and it’s local community. Although its coal trade was relatively short lived, Cullercoats continued to thrive as a flourishing fishing port and during the nineteenth, twentieth and into the twenty-first centuries as a popular holiday resort frequented by many well-known and successful artists.

Exploring the endogenous structure and evolutionary mechanism of the global coal trade network

The uneven distribution of global coal supply and demand markets has driven coal trade. Effectively characterizing the global coal trade pattern and exploring its evolutionary mechanisms are important for economic development and international energy security. Therefore, this study adopts complex network methods to construct global coal trade network (GCTN) from 1995 to 2021. Based on exploring the overall, individual, and motif structural characteristics of the network, the temporal exponential random graph model is adopted to explore the impact mechanism of endogenous and exogenous variables on the evolution of the GCTN. The research findings demonstrate that (1) at the overall level, the network size, closeness, accessibility, and reciprocity of global coal trade exhibit an increasing trend; (2) at the motif level, aggregation and bilateral reciprocity are the primary trade patterns that affect the formation and evolution of the GCTN that is different from the steady-state structures of the four common super-families and possesses unique characteristics; (3) at the individual level, the United States and European economies possess a higher degree of diversification in coal trade, while Australia and emerging economies exhibit higher coal export trade volumes. The RCEP economies, represented by Japan and South Korea, possess a higher import share. Additionally, the Netherlands plays a “transit station” role in the network; (4) the formation and evolution of the GCTN are influenced by endogenous mechanisms. Reciprocity, transmission closure, and convergence effects have a significant promoting effect on network construction. Ignoring endogenous mechanisms can lead to significant bias in empirical results.

Revealing the evolution of global energy trade patterns amidst the COVID-19 epicenter storm

As the driving force of modern economic development, the evolution of the global energy patterns during major emergencies deserves attention. This study aims to uncover changes in global energy patterns during the COVID-19 epicenter storm. The results reveal concentrated energy trade volume in a few flows, with high-income countries holding greater influence. Amid the epicenter storm, there was a contraction in global energy trade volume, and trading patterns underwent significant shifts: (1) the global natural gas trading center shifted from the Middle East to western Africa initially, then to the United States and Russia; (2) Brazil, a crucial crude oil exporter, saw a weakened position in global crude oil exports; and (3) in the coal trading network, Australia and Russia maintained their position as trading centers throughout the storm. Swift policy adaptation is crucial for resilience and stability amid evolving global energy patterns.

Environmental impacts of potential mining-replacing-import alternative for China in response to the China-Australia coal ban

Australia is a long-term key partner of China in coal trading, which is famous for high-quality coal and its price advantage. However, affected by the evolution of international political and economic situation, China has issued a coal ban on Australian coal since the end of 2020. The potential environmental consequences of this coal ban remain unclear. So, this paper quantifies the ban's impact on air pollution, human health and climate change by simulating the emission difference between the port scenario (simulating the emissions due to Australian coal import under business as usual) and the mine scenario (simulating the emissions due to domestic coal mining that converted from import share of Australian coal), and monetizes the losses into economic costs for direct comparison. The results illustrate the emission of SO2, VOCs and GHG in mine scenario grows up to 102, 12 and 6 times the amount of that in port scenario, mainly deriving from coal mining process in the North China Plain and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. It shows that the potential alternative of replacing import with mining leads to PM2.5 pollution exacerbation and O3 pollution abatement, which causes 148 (95 % CI: 101–183) non-communicable diseases and respiratory disease-related deaths in total. As for GHG, the emission of BC in transportation process and fugitive methane in coal mining process contribute to an impressive effect on warming potential with few quantities, which is worth noting in control process. In total, the environmental deterioration resulted in an economic loss of approximately 934 million yuan. The undiminished demand for high-quality industrial coal as well as growing carbon tax could make the economic value of the coal ban's environmental consequences more considerable in the near future. This research emphasizes the contradiction between economic development and environmental improvement caused by excessive dependence on coal and addresses a critical knowledge gap in assessing the ban's environmental impact by economic value. The result directly demonstrates the environmental consequences of the potential mining-replacing-import alternative and helps better understand environmental influences on the Chinese government's decision.

Impact of Covid-19 on the Demand of Coal Bulk Transportation in China

China's coal bulk transportation sector, instrumental in fulfilling 60% of the nation's primary energy demand in 2019, has been at the forefront of energy research given its criticality to China's energy matrix. Motivated by the widespread disruptions during the Covid-19 pandemic, this study employs a case-based method, focusing on the effects on both imported and domestically produced coal transportation, drawing from a plethora of references. This paper’s findings indicate that while there was an initial decline in coal sales and imports in early 2020, strategic interventions led to a 4.6% rise in coal imports by 2021, coupled with a growth of 11% in domestic coal production in 2022. Emphasizing resilience, the sector witnessed a notable rekindling of coal trade with Australia by 2023. This research not only underscores China's capacity for adaptability in its coal sector amidst global disruptions but also lays a foundational framework for future studies, accentuating the significance of understanding energy resilience in a post-pandemic world.

Research on the decision-making method of coal order price and coal purchase quantity based on prediction

The imbalance of coal supply and uncertainty of demand changes have brought great challenges to the stable supply of coal. In the actual trading process, there are problems such as variable demand and incomplete information on both, and the trading process lacks scientific and effective guidance. Therefore, game theory is introduced into the coal trading process, and a decision-making method based on predicted coal supply and demand order price and coal purchase quantity is proposed. Firstly, the prediction method is introduced, and the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) model are used to predict the coal purchase quantity and coal price of the supply and demand, which provides a basis for the formulation of the initial scheme of the bilateral game between supply and demand. Secondly, a bilateral game model of coal supply and demand based on prediction is established, and a bilateral order game-solving strategy of coal supply and demand based on a genetic algorithm is proposed. Finally, the proposed method was verified by setting up three different example scenarios for thermal coal trading, and the optimal coal price and coal purchase quantity under equilibrium are solved, and the results showed that the profit of supply and demand is increased by 4.65% and 2.97%, respectively, and the calculation time is reduced by 21.12%, which improves the speed of solving the game model, maximizes the benefits of both the coal supply and demand sides and provides a theoretical basis for the scientific and efficient order formation of coal mining enterprises.

Перспективное освоение угольных запасов Арктики на основе пространственной организации коммуникаций

In the current conditions of economic instability, the problem of developing the regional space of the Arctic zone, where huge reserves of hydrocarbons and other minerals are concentrated, which are the main driver of the future development of the Arctic economy, is becoming increasingly important. The development of the Arctic region was strongly influenced by the international environment, which, on the one hand, poses a threat to the Arctic mineral projects, and on the other hand, opens up new opportunities for their successful implementation. Against this background, the task of the Arctic coal industry within the framework of spatial and regional development is the territorial and production optimization of production and transportation of coal products. The purpose of the study is to analyze current trends in the development of the coal mining market in the new geo-economic and political conditions, which results in the proposed approaches to the spatial organization of the transport communications system, allowing maximizing the economic and export potential of the prospective development of Arctic coal reserves. It has been established that the current situation greatly affects the energy market. Russian coal market is being transformed under the influence of geo-economic transformations, the formation of new coal mining centers is shifting eastwards closer to the Asia-Pacific region, which will become the main center of coal trade in the near future. The study concludes that the efficiency of the development of Arctic coal reserves directly depends on the spatial organization of a complex system of integrated production and transport corridors (IPTC) that combine the production and logistics chain of mining and transportation of coal products into a single holistically integrated space of sea, coastal and land communications. On the basis of the analysis of the Taimyr coal basin, a priority level for the prospective development of mineral resources has been determined, based on a combination of factors that condition the economic and export potential of coal deposits.

Literatur und Energie in Joseph Roths Der Rauch verbindet Städte (1926)

Abstract: In his report Der Rauch verbindet Städte , which appeared in the Frankfurter Zeitung in 1926, Joseph Roth described how coal mining affected life, society, and work in the Ruhr Valley. The text demonstrates impressively and in metaphoric terms how the coal trade and its industrial use as a source of energy had a direct influence on everyday life and the economy. This article proceeds from coal as a source of energy to examine the connection between literature and energy, reading this text against the background of the field of Energy Humanities currently developing in the anglophone sphere. This research focus, which has to date hardly been pursued in the German-speaking world, provides a new and productive perspective within the field of Austrian Studies.

Shipping in the London coal trade, 1700‒1860

AbstractEvidence from more than 40 000 voyages shows that labour productivity growth for sailing ships in the London coal trade was rapid but quite irregular between 1700 and 1860. These granular data permit us to examine various dimensions of change, showing that ships made more voyages per year, had smaller crews, carried more coal per ship ton and had longer working lives. Some changes resulted from what happened on land rather than on the sea, notably a marked reduction in the seasonality of trade as wagonways were built in the northeast in the early eighteenth century and a pronounced dip in voyages per year due to congestion in the port of London during the 1830s and 1840s, partly caused by the operation of the coal cartel. These results for the coal trade suggest that shipping, being neither spectacularly modern nor doggedly traditional, made a respectable contribution to British economic growth.

Remarkable Spatial Disparity of Life Cycle Inventory for Coal Production in China.

Coal is the primary energy source in China, and its life cycle inventory (LCI) is widely used as background data for life cycle assessment studies. Previous research indicates that the inventory of coal production varies regionally. However, the development of complete regionalized LCIs for coal production is quite limited. Here, we establish the first provincial-level LCIs of local coal production and market for coal in China, based on a database of 6,122 coal mines and developed models. In the inventory results of local coal production, the coefficients of variation (CVs) of nine indicators exceed 0.5, especially SO2 and particulate matter emission factors (CVs > 1). Compared with that, the interprovincial coal trade homogenizes the provincial production inventory of market for coal relatively, despite four indicators with CVs exceeding 0.5. Therefore, the regionalized inventory with remarkable spatial differentiation can provide more accurate fundamental data for future research such as electricity production. Furthermore, CH4 emissions from coal production account for 24% of China's total methane emissions, highlighting its significance in mitigating global warming. Moreover, through the increasing coal trade, the significant and implicit plunder of water resources from the three coal net-exporting provinces, located in water-scarce areas, should be noted.

Comparative study on the international coal trade network before and after COVID-19 outbreak

COVID-19 that broke out at the end of 2019 made countries to implement strict blockade measures to curb the spread of the virus. These measures have seriously disrupted the coal import and export trade, causing a significant impact on the coal trade network. This study aims to investigate the disparities between coal trade networks before and after COVID-19 outbreak. First, using complex network theory, we constructed global coal trade networks for the years 2019 and 2020. Subsequently, utilizing a cascading failure model, we developed a coal supply risk propagation framework. Through an analysis of network topology and theoretical supply risk propagation, we explored the similarities and differences of the coal trade networks during these 2 years. In terms of network topology structure, our findings reveal a decrease in trade tightness in the coal trade network of 2020 compared to 2019. Moreover, the Netherlands no longer retains its significance as an important trade hub country in 2020. Looking at the theoretical perspective of supply risk transmission, we observed that in 2020, COVID-19 resulted in a higher number of countries experiencing crisis outbreaks compared to 2019. However, it is noteworthy that the core countries within the coal trade network have remained consistent, and their roles as either net importers or net exporters have not changed. This indicates that the position of coal core countries is very stable. Therefore, no matter what happens, the country should pay timely attention to the dynamics of core countries. Interestingly, in 2020, the risk associated with coal supply did not conform to the spatial patterns typically seen in trade. For instance, the Russian Federation, identified as a country facing a crisis outbreak, transmits supply risks to geographically distant regions in West Asia, including countries like Ghana and Western Sahara.

Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict

The outbreak of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict exacerbated the natural gas supply shortage in European countries. European countries restarted coal-fired power plants to maintain economic and social operations. The uneven distribution of coal resources in the world makes coal international trade inevitable. The intricate trade relations between trading countries have formed a coal trade network. When a country’s coal exports are limited due to geopolitical factors, it will cause coal supply risks. The risk will spread to more countries along the trade network, eventually leading to the collapse of the trade network. This paper builds a crisis propagation model of the coal supply under the Russia-Ukraine conflict using the cascading failure model. The results showed that the Czech Republic, Ireland, Portugal, and Bulgaria become abnormal as the proportion of coal exports β increases. When the Russian Federation reduced its coal exports by 80% and countries maintained only 10% coal exports against crisis, 23 European countries were the worst. Iceland, Ireland, Turkey and other countries were spread by the indirect risk and became abnormal countries. The Czech Republic and Bulgaria were spread by multiple risk and became abnormal countries.

Mongolia in 2022

As in 2020, the biggest stories in Mongolia in 2021 and 2022 were elections, COVID-19, and how to cope with the contracting economy. At the end of the year, Mongolia was struggling to meet public health challenges and to recover from the economic downturn. Both the government that was elected in 2020 and the president who took office in 2021 have promised to improve corruption, which is endemic in Mongolia, but people have yet to see much change. Popular dissatisfaction led to a huge public protest in December 2022 that demanded the government ensure more transparency in the coal trade. Thirty years after a peaceful transition to democracy, Mongolia is facing its greatest challenge: how to maintain and develop a transparent democracy that truly cares about public opinion and people’s livelihoods.

A novel decomposition integration model for power coal price forecasting

Accurate prediction of steam coal prices is important for stabilizing the coal trading market and formulating coal use strategies scientifically. In this paper, a new decomposition integration model (VADM) is proposed to predict coal prices by combining the variational modal decomposition (VMD), arithmetic optimization algorithm (AOA), deep temporal convolutional network (DeepTCN), and mean impact value algorithm (MIV). Firstly, the AOA optimization algorithm is used to improve the VMD, AOA-VMD was obtained. It is used to decompose the steam coal price series. Then, the decomposed subsequences are predicted for the prediction of steam coal prices by using DeepTCN. Finally, the MIV algorithm is applied to analyze the impact of different factors on the price of steam coal. It is found that: the steam coal price sub-series decomposed by AOA-VMD are smoother and more linear compared with the original series; the errors in forecasting steam coal prices are significantly reduced after considering newly proposed factors, interest rates, such as the overnight Shanghai interbank offered rate and the six-month treasury bond yield; the MAPE, MASE and SMAPE of the VADM model all show different degrees of decline compared with benchmark models. The forecasting effect of VADM model is better than the benchmark model in terms of stability and accuracy, and can be used for short-term forecasting of coal prices.

Back to black? Macroeconomic analysis of hard coal sector in European Union 1990-2030

Purpose: The purpose of the article is to present the results of a PEST analysis of the legal, economic, social and technological determinants of hard coal market development in the European Union from 1990 to 2030. Design/methodology/approach: The research process was carried out with the use of four methods: analysis and synthesis (1) critical review of the literature (2), statistical techniques (3) and an industry case study (4). Findings: Detail regulatory (legal), economic, social (socio-cultural) and technology variables affecting the hard coal market have been identified. All the factors examined exhibited a destimulating effect on the development of the market, from the perspective of the entities operating on the hard coal extraction and utilization market in the European Union. The most pronounced negative effect stems from the social factors. The impact of the legal and economic determinants is of similar magnitude, whereas technological changes show the lowest potency in this regard. Research limitations/implications: Dynamic geopolitical changes and high susceptibility to interventionism can significantly affect the deviations of point forecasts in the pest coal industry in the long run. Practical implications: PEST analysis is used to assess the development of economic sectors regardless of the industry life cycle phase. It can also help determine a given industry's life cycle phase and its future migration trends in practice. Originality/value: The originality of this article lies in the employment of the quantification of macroenvironmental areas significantly affecting the industry, using an authorially modified PEST-based analysis. Keywords: coal market; hard coal trade; economy of fossil fuels; PEST analysis. Category of the paper: Research paper.

Hubungan Kerja Sama Perdagangan Komoditas Batu Bara Indonesia-China Tahun 2014-2021

This research aims to explain the relationship of bilateral trade cooperation between Indonesia and China in coal commodities, the influencing factors and the opportunities and defiances of Indonesia in trade cooperation of coal energy with China during the period of President Joko Widodo’s administration in 2014-2021. Indonesia and China are two countries that have very close relations in the energy sector, as seen from a lot of policies and cooperation agreed upon by the two countries. However, the existing social, economic and political dynamics also affect the cooperation between the two countries. Seeing these dynamics, this research tries to answer the reason why Indonesia and China did the coal trade cooperation, how was the bilateral cooperation between the two countries and what is Indonesia’s opportunity and defiance of coal bilateral trade cooperation with China. This research uses the Heckscher-Ohlin international trade theory, international cooperation and new trade strategy concepts to answer the questions. The data collection technique used in this research is a secondary data collection technique with a literature review method. From the analysis, the coal bilateral trade cooperation between Indonesia-China does not escape from their national interest which is over production of coal in Indonesia and the lack of domestic coal energy resources in China. So the author concludes that domestic and global factors, big opportunities and defiances play a very important role in relation to coal bilateral trade cooperation between Indonesia and China.

Life Lines of Industry: excavation and exploration of the 18th century Walbottle Moor Waggonway

SUMMARY The North East of England has been a hub of mining activity throughout its recent history due to the abundance of large coal deposits in the region. The coal trade and the associated technologies developed by the collieries of Northumberland and Durham were a driving force behind some of the innovations of the Industrial Revolution. Waggonways of the region, as vital routes of commerce, became key testing grounds for civil engineering principles that would go on to influence the world. The excavation of William Brown’s Walbottle Moor Waggonway by Headland Archaeology (UK) Ltd in 2019 has provided insights into the construction of one such lifeline of industry. Excavated evidence combined with the documentary and cartographic sources has provided an opportunity to look in-depth at this waggonway. The phases of use, from construction to decommissioning, and the evolution of waggonway technologies in the region have been explored and engineering specific to the complex topography of the area is revealed. These revelations include the multiple phases of the waggonway, which indicate that an initial temporary trackway was used in the construction of the earthwork features along the line – a feature which is unique for the eighteenth century.

Preliminary study on the global impact of sanctions on fossil energy trade: Based on complex network theory

Russia is the main supplier of fossil energy to European countries. The impact of sanctions on fossil energy trade under the background of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has attracted global attention. Based on the data on fossil energy trade in 2020, this study simulates the impact of sanctions on national trade and global fossil energy trade patterns based on complex network theory and cascading failure model. In terms of negative impact, the crude oil trade has the largest potential impact, the natural gas trade has the largest direct loss and the coal trade has the least impact. To mitigate the impact of sanctions, Russia may shift its fossil-energy export focus to China and other Asian countries. The positive impact analysis shows that crude oil is the main source of benefits for energy exporting countries and the United States will become the biggest beneficiary among energy exporting countries. In addition, the study found that sanctions reshaped the pattern of global fossil energy trade, improved the trade efficiency and energy anti-control ability of European countries, and promoted the transfer of energy control centres from Europe to Asia. It is of great significance to study the impact of sanctions on global fossil energy trade to deal with geopolitical shocks, formulate energy trade policies and manage energy risks.

KERJASAMA EKONOMI INDONESIA-JAPAN ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT (IJEPA) TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN BATUBARA INDONESIA-JEPANG TAHUN 2019-2021

This study aims to analyze the effect of IJEPA on coal trade which affects Indonesia's economic development through the import-export sector. IJEPA is an economic cooperation that includes cooperation in the manufacturing industry, agriculture, fisheries, forestry, trade, human resources, tourism and mineral resources with the aim of improving the economy by utilizing the export, import and coal sectors. Using descriptive qualitative methods with literature studies and interviews, the results of the research show that the establishment of IJEPA can strengthen economic relations, open access to the Japanese market and to gain profits between Indonesia and Japan.