Environmental impacts of potential mining-replacing-import alternative for China in response to the China-Australia coal ban

Abstract

Australia is a long-term key partner of China in coal trading, which is famous for high-quality coal and its price advantage. However, affected by the evolution of international political and economic situation, China has issued a coal ban on Australian coal since the end of 2020. The potential environmental consequences of this coal ban remain unclear. So, this paper quantifies the ban's impact on air pollution, human health and climate change by simulating the emission difference between the port scenario (simulating the emissions due to Australian coal import under business as usual) and the mine scenario (simulating the emissions due to domestic coal mining that converted from import share of Australian coal), and monetizes the losses into economic costs for direct comparison. The results illustrate the emission of SO2, VOCs and GHG in mine scenario grows up to 102, 12 and 6 times the amount of that in port scenario, mainly deriving from coal mining process in the North China Plain and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. It shows that the potential alternative of replacing import with mining leads to PM2.5 pollution exacerbation and O3 pollution abatement, which causes 148 (95 % CI: 101–183) non-communicable diseases and respiratory disease-related deaths in total. As for GHG, the emission of BC in transportation process and fugitive methane in coal mining process contribute to an impressive effect on warming potential with few quantities, which is worth noting in control process. In total, the environmental deterioration resulted in an economic loss of approximately 934 million yuan. The undiminished demand for high-quality industrial coal as well as growing carbon tax could make the economic value of the coal ban's environmental consequences more considerable in the near future. This research emphasizes the contradiction between economic development and environmental improvement caused by excessive dependence on coal and addresses a critical knowledge gap in assessing the ban's environmental impact by economic value. The result directly demonstrates the environmental consequences of the potential mining-replacing-import alternative and helps better understand environmental influences on the Chinese government's decision.