Peak CO2 Emissions Research Articles

High-temperature detoxification strategy based on thermal analysis kinetics for resource utilization of biopharmaceutical waste

High-temperature pyrolytic detoxification reactions based on thermal analysis facilitate the resource reuse of solid waste from the biopharmaceutical industry. This study described thermodynamic parameters, gas by-products, and safety assessment. The most common emissions (H2O, O, NH3) peak at 345–440 °C, accompanied by a shift in the micro-interfacial reaction mechanism, resulting in the largest rate of weight loss and the most significant release of gaseous by-products from the reaction. The peak CO2, SO2, and N2 emissions were dominated by deamination and sodium enrichment reactions, following the Mampel Power law mechanism. The growth trends of protein-nucleated Chlorella indicated the safety of the product at each stage. Compared to sample 375, sample 440 promoted the growth of Chlorella to a certain extent (maximum boost of 0.24 g⋅L-1⋅d-1), indicating non-toxicity and neutral pH, which may be due to a shift in pH to neutral as a result of pyrolytic detoxification, thus increasing safety and facilitating resource recovery. Possible reaction pathways for the pyrolysis of solid products were derived, and the availability of end products that contribute to the safe reuse of final value-added products from biopharmaceutical waste.

Emission Reduction Tournament Would Postpone Carbon Peaking in China

The mitigation of climate change is one of the most serious issues in global public governance. To address the climate crisis, Chinese government has proposed a clear target of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Regional efforts are expected to play a key role in delivering China’s pledge to peak CO2 emissions before 2030. However, the emission reduction tournament would result in rapid increases in emission transfers among provinces in China. If the current trend of provincial economic development and associated emission transfer mode remains unchanged, we forecast that 24 progressive provinces in China would peak their CO2 emissions before 2030, while 6 lagged provinces would peak later than 2030. However, if emission transfers were not existed, the nationwide carbon peaking time would be one year earlier and the corresponding carbon peaking level would be 13% lower. Furthermore, compared to the situation in 2012, the emission transfer mode in 2017 would lead to a higher carbon peaking level, indicating that the switch to the emission transfer mode from 2012 to 2017 had increased the difficulty of carbon peaking in China. We suggest that the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities should be applied when decomposing the national carbon peaking targets into provinces, and China must avoid a tournament among local governments on carbon peaking.

The Interplay Between Subsidy and Regulation Under Competition

This study extends the work of Anand and Giraud-Carrier (2020) [Pollution regulation of competitive markets. Management Science. 66(9), 4193–4206] to an even more general case in which the government offers a subsidy to firms. For the purpose of investigating the interplay between subsidies (rewarding positive externalities) and regulation (punishing negative externalities) under competition, we propose a game-theoretic model to formulate the problem. By Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) conditions and backward induction, we obtain the following results. They are unique in our new scenario compared to Anand and Giraud-Carrier (2020). First, in terms of abatement, the effects of regulation and subsidy offset when the abatement efficiency is relatively high, and reinforce when abatement is inefficient. From the perspective of social welfare (SW), the effects of regulation are often offset by the effects of subsidy, and vice versa. Second, the relationship between the optimal subsidy rate and regulation depends heavily on the degree of competition and marginal cost of public funds. Third, in product and abatement subsidy schemes, cap-and-trade and taxes remain equivalent under competition. Finally, under certain conditions, a higher product subsidy rate will not necessarily give rise to higher SW at certain regulatory levels. Our research can provide a rationale for social planners who aim to achieve peak of CO2 emissions and carbon neutrality.

The Legal Guarantee for Achieving Carbon Peak and Neutrality Goals in China.

In order to actively fulfill its international treaty obligations, China has established the goal of peaking CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Since 2018, when ecological civilization was written into the Constitution, the realization of carbon peak and neutrality goals has had an ideological foundation and a constitutional basis. China has formulated various special laws and built a 1 + N policy system to reduce carbon emissions, which together with the environmental protection law, climate change law, energy law and other related laws and regulations constitute a unified legal system and provide legal support to achieve carbon peak and neutrality goals. At the same time, China has taken advantage of the new national system with concentrated efforts and resources to delineate the different roles of the government and market mechanisms in carbon emission reduction, and to make the operation of the legal system of carbon peak and neutrality suitable for its actual situation by giving full paly to the initiative of both central and local governments. This article analyzes the current legal system and its characteristics in China in the process of achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals in the context of the new era, and outlooks on the improvement path of the legal system from both domestic and international dimensions. The practice, experience and development direction of China in the construction of the legal guarantee for carbon peak and neutrality goals can provide reference for other countries to achieve carbon reduction.

The current situation and the driving mechanism of energy consumption in China in the context of the peak of carbon emissions in 2030

The Chinese economy is actively switching to the use of gas in the energy sector and in the residential sector. At the same time, with the scale of the Chinese economy, coal will be in demand for a long time, since technological and economic reasons make it difficult to quickly abandon this raw material in favor of less carbon-intensive types of energy resources. China is the world's largest consumer and importer of energy resources, whose structure has long relied on the use of coal for electricity generation. Stable economic growth and the development of industrial production in the country have caused serious environmental problems associated with the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The article discusses the main aspects of the current situation of energy consumption in China in the context of the peak of carbon emissions in 2030. The author conducted a meta-regression analysis, the results are shown in Table 1. The framework of China's climate policy is considered in detail, as well as how China will reach a peak in carbon emissions by 2030. The regression results show that all variables are significant for peak CO2 emissions, with the exception of the variable rate of decrease in the intensity of carbon emissions at the peak of carbon emissions (peakCEI), significant for the time of peak carbon emissions, with the exception of the variable paper type (PTY), impact factor (IF), classification of the share of coal at the peak of carbon emissions (yblcal) and the share of coal at the peak of carbon emissions (pnf). According to the author, in the future China should conduct in-depth research in these areas, including studying the optimal path to the carbon peak based on the cost-benefit theory, improve methods of accounting for greenhouse gas inventories, actively promote the progress of clean energy technologies, improving the quality of economic development, etc.

The change in temporal trend and spatial distribution of CO2 emissions of China's public and commercial buildings

The CO2 emission mitigation of the commercial and public building sector (P&C) is critical for achieving China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Analyzing changes in CO2 emissions and their driving factors from temporal and spatial perspective provides insights for developing equitable and effective decarbonization strategies. This study investigated the change in temporal trend and spatial distribution of CO2 emissions of China's P&C during period of 2005–2018 according to the Kaya identify and Gravity Center model. Meanwhile, combined with the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index, this study proposed a decomposed method to identify the driving factor of the movement of the gravity center. The results showed that: 1) in the temporal dimension, China's P&C has still not achieved its CO2 emissions peak, arriving 820.68 MtCO2. The most positive and negative driving factors were per capita add value of tertiary industry and energy efficiency, respectively; 2) in the spatial dimension, during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the gravity center moved southwestward, and the most positive and negative driving factors were energy consumption unit area and energy efficiency, respectively; Besides, to accelerate the decarbonization of China's P&C, this study reviewed the main decarbonization strategies, divided them into six categories and provided policy implications. In summary, this study provides a completed assessment on CO2 emission changes of China's P&C, facilitating policy-makers to develop more reasonable implementation plans for emission mitigation.

Historical trend and drivers of China's CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2020.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-022-02811-8.

Dynamic scenario simulations of phased carbon peaking in China's building sector through 2030–2050

Carbon-reduction effect of the provincial building sector is crucial to the carbon peaking target of China. This study aims to explore the different drivers of carbon emission reduction in the provincial building sector and simulate the future evolutionary trajectories of China's building sector carbon emissions. In this study, we explored the CO2 emissions (CE) drivers of China's building sector in its entirety and at the provincial level using the generalized Divisia index method to simulate CE trends under economic-development dynamically and building-demand perspectives using the Monte Carlo method. We found that the building-sector fixed-asset investment and output are the main drivers of CE growth in China at the national and provincial scales. Carbon-intensity investment and output were also found to be critical drivers of CE growth. Our dynamic-modeling scenarios indicated that the 2030 CE peak target is difficult to achieve in the operational phase of the building sector because of the building-demand; efficiency-oriented and technological advances may render this target more attainable. Due to the uneven regional development, different drivers have different impacts on CE peaking, so the peaking targets and emission-reduction policies for each provincial building sector should be formulated considering regional contexts.

Steel decarbonization in China – a top-down optimization model for exploring the first steps

The steel industry is a major contributor to emissions of CO2 and key air pollutants. Reducing air pollution has since long been a policy priority in China. Reducing CO2 emissions has more recently also become a key priority partially manifested through the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Although there are often synergies between reducing CO2 emissions and air pollution, it may have implications for the geographical location if one is prioritized over the other, with subsequent effects on local economies and overall policy efficiency. Therefore, we build a top-down optimization model to assess the provincial allocation of steel production, air pollution impact and the cost for meeting the target of peaking CO2 emissions in 2025 and reducing them by 30% in 2030. This short-term reduction target can be regarded as the first steps for China's steel industry to meet the national net zero target and the Pairs agreement. We analyze a scenario to minimize air pollution impact and compare this with a scenario to minimize CO2 mitigation costs. The results show that it is possible to peak CO2 emissions in 2025 and reduce them by 30% in 2030 but the resulting scrap demand requires increased quality scrap collection or imports. The total cost for different scenarios is similar but optimizing on abatement cost leads to lower cumulative CO2 emissions 2021–2030 compared to optimizing on pollution impact. If reducing pollution impact is the main objective, it leads to 22–26% lower pollution impact than when optimizing on abatement costs, and less primary production in densely populated areas. This implies that policy must handle trade-offs between cost optimal mitigation and pollution impact, as well as effects on local economies. Policy must also balance the accelerated introduction of Electric Arc Furnaces while simultaneously reducing overcapacity in primary production.

Technological avenues and market mechanisms to accelerate methane and nitrous oxide emissions reductions.

Strategies targeting methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are critical to meeting global climate targets. Existing literature estimates the emissions of these gases from specific sectors, but this knowledge must be synthesized to prioritize and incentivize CH4 and N2O mitigation. Accordingly, we review emissions sources and mitigation strategies in all key sectors (fuel extraction and combustion, landfilling, agriculture, wastewater treatment, and chemical industry) and the role of carbon markets in reducing emissions. The most accessible reduction opportunities are in the hydrocarbon extraction and waste sectors, where half (>3 Gt-CO2e/year) of the emissions in these sectors could be mitigated at no net cost. In total, 60% of CH4 emissions can be mitigated at less than $50/t-CO2. Expanding the scope of carbon markets to include these emissions could provide cost-effective decarbonization through 2050. We provide recommendations for carbon markets to improve emissions reductions and set prices to appropriately incentivize mitigation.

The role of output-based emission trading system in the decarbonization of China's power sector

The emission trading system (ETS) is a key policy for China to achieve carbon neutrality. China's national ETS started operation and covered the power sector first, which will promote its transformation. This study explores how China's national ETS can support the future decarbonization of the power system. With benchmark tightening, China's ETS can cost-effectively peak CO2 emissions of the power sector before 2030 and reduce 13% of the total emissions by 2035, compared to a No-Carbon-Pricing Scenario. Under the ETS, the allowance price would rise gradually to 350 yuan/tCO2 by 2035. The main driving factor for emissions reduction would be improving the efficiency of coal-fired power generation between 2020 and 2025 and deploying carbon capture and storage (CCS) from 2030, respectively. Fuel-switching away from coal is limited under the ETS with technology-specific benchmarks and free allocation. Regional distributional effects could arise under the ETS. Regions with a higher share of ultra-supercritical units could have allowance surpluses at the beginning, while only regions with CCS-equipped coal-fired units have the potential to gain high allowance surpluses by 2035.

A fairly and effectively analysis for the sharing of CO2 emissions reduction responsibility in China's provincial building sectors

China's goal to peak CO2 emissions by 2030—in accordance with the Paris agreement—is being jeopardized by the increasing carbon emissions from the building sector. Allocating CO2 emission reduction (CER) responsibilities for the building sector to the provinces fairly and efficiently remains challenging. In this study, we first quantify the government leading targets regarding CER responsibilities, while clarifying the extent to which China considers the principles of equity and efficiency while allocating provincial CER responsibilities. Subsequently, based on the carbon emission efficiency, CER potential, and abatement cost of China's building sector, we establish a more equitable and effective model for sharing the CER responsibilities in the building sector at the provincial level. Using data from the building sector in 30 provinces in China between 2005 and 2019, we define and compare the CER responsibilities that the building sector in each province should bear with the CER responsibility-sharing scheme under multiple perspectives. Results show that the Chinese government has not fully considered the principles of equity and efficiency in setting the CER targets for each province in the past 15 years. Our model for sharing the CER responsibility in the local building sector appears more reasonable and adequate: The marginal abatement cost (i.e., economic loss of abatement) is about 7% less than those of other schemes; additionally, it guarantees the fairness of development power. Overall, this study furthers the CER responsibility-sharing theory and constitutes a reference for implementing more effective energy saving and CER policies.

Exploring the driving forces and scenario analysis for China's provincial peaks of CO2 emissions

Understanding the drivers and peaks of CO2 emissions at the provincial level plays a crucial role in achieving the goals of China's CO2 emissions peak by 2030. This research combines the spatial-temporal Logarithmic Mean Division Index with scenario analysis to empirically explore the drivers and peaks of CO2 emissions in 30 provinces in China during 1997 and 2020, considering COVID-19 effects. The results show that the energy structure has replaced the energy intensity as the main factor of emission reduction in 2020. The CO2 emission driving mechanism at the provincial level is different from that at the country level. The population restrains the CO2 emissions in Heilongjiang, Sichuan, and Guizhou. The energy structure increases CO2 emissions in Hainan, Ningxia, Shanxi, and Xinjiang. The role of driving factors to CO2 emissions varies greatly among provinces. The population effect is strong in Shandong, Guangdong, and Henan. The economic effect is significant in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin. The energy intensity effect is remarkable in Shanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia. The energy structure effect is profound in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Henan. Based on our findings, China's CO2 emissions peak will occur in 2030 and 2025 under baseline and green development scenarios. Many provinces have already reached their peaks, including Chongqing, Yunnan, Beijing, Tianjin, Qinghai, Shanghai, Jilin, Hubei, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Sichuan, Anhui, Guizhou, and Henan. However, Xinjiang and Shanxi will not reach their peaks by 2030. Based on the findings, this paper put forward several policy implications.

Pathways for municipalities to achieve carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality: A study based on the LEAP model

China has played an active and constructive role in the global combat against climate change. Municipalities play a leading role in tackling global climate change. However, despite the global efforts to push for carbon neutrality, the pathway is not yet clear. Using the municipality of Bengbu as a case, this paper explores pathways for achieving carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality in order to reach a CO2 emission peak before 2030 in four Scenarios and develops a low emission framework taking into consideration the local economy, population, renewable resources, as well as the transport and energy sectors based on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. Meanwhile, the energy demand, the structure of the electric power generation, the CO2 emission, and the total cost in different Scenarios are simulated respectively. The result of this study provides insight on options for energy transformation for the period of 2020–2060. The results show that the industrial sector is the largest energy consumer. The growth rate of energy demand in the primary industry and industrial sector shows downward trends. The increasement of industrial electrification rate and coal generation phasing out are crucial to CO2 emission reduction. The large-scale deployment of renewable energy and the deployment of thermal power generation with CCUS are important for the electric power industry to achieve carbon reduction goals. Last but not the least, recommendations on energy planning for municipals to realize carbon emission peak and achieve carbon neutrality are provided.

New challenges of the Belt and Road Initiative under China's "3060" carbon target

Under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China and BRI countries mutually benefited from the trade in the economy. Meanwhile, considerable CO2 emissions were embodied in the trade, possibly putting pressure on China's "3060" target of peaking CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Yet less is known about the heterogeneous impacts of BRI-induced trade on China, especially at the provincial level. This study quantifies the provincial mismatch of CO2 emissions and economic benefits induced by BRI countries' final demand using the latest linked multiregional input-output model. We found that provinces in China paid around 0.24–7.01 Mt embodied CO2 emissions to obtain per unit billion USD dollars in fulfilling BRI countries' final demand. Regarding the sectoral patterns, embodied CO2 emissions of electricity, gas, and water sector accounted for the largest proportion (more than 50%) for 60% of provinces. Other services sector greatly contributed to each province's economic benefits. We also found that only 15.2% of these embodied CO2 emissions could be mitigated even though upgrading the technology levels of all sectors in backward provinces to China's average level. This indicated that measures relying on the current technology are far from enough for achieving the carbon targets. Therefore, it is urgent to deepen the technology innovation and reform of emission sectors in the short term. In the long run, seeking new long-term pathways of emission reduction, such as optimizing trade structure, is conducive to promoting the sustainable development of BRI and the "3060" realization.

Research on peak prediction of urban differentiated carbon emissions -- a case study of Shandong Province, China

Cities are the main source and gathering place of carbon emissions. Therefore, it is an effective way to reach peak CO2 emissions before 2030 to make carbon emission prediction and implement differentiated carbon emission reduction schemes according to local conditions at the urban level. Taking Shandong Province as an example, this paper comprehensively explored the impact of 16 socio-economic factors on carbon emissions of different cities through the extended STIRPAT model. In order to reduce the uncertainty of the research results and achieve “one city, one policy”, firstly, the influencing factors of carbon emissions in different cities were screened through ridge regression equation, which were used as specific parameters of different cities in the scenario setting. Secondly, based on the actual development of different cities, this paper obtained the scenario combination scheme by freely combining different influencing factors to predict the peak time and peak value of carbon emissions. Based on the above measures, it could not only reflect the heterogeneous development of cities, but also ensure that the research results are close to the actual development of cities. The results show that 16 cities in Shandong Province show differential peak attainment. Among them, 8 cities have the best peak year around 2025, 5 cities have the best peak year around 2028, and 2 cities can achieve the peak before 2030. A comprehensive analysis of the timing and peaking of carbon emissions suggests that the best overall peaking year for Shandong Province could be 2028. In addition, according to the different influencing factors of carbon emission peak in each city, a set of carbon emission reduction scenarios with urban differentiation reaching the peak is proposed. This could provide a more comprehensive path choice direction for local governments to formulate carbon emission reduction action plans. Furthermore, this paper could be used as a reference for other provinces in China or other national regions to explore urban differentiated carbon peaking and to formulate operable carbon peaking solutions.

A Study on Synergizing the Reduction of Air Pollution and Carbon Emissions in China and Policy Implication

Most conventional air pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2) are simultaneously emitted from the same sources, providing a sound theoretical basis for the synergistic governance of these emissions. At present, China faces severe challenges in protecting the eco-environment, such as reducing conventional pollutants, improving environmental quality, and peaking CO2 emissions. Internationally, the control of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been incorporated into the comprehensive environmental management system in major developed economies such as the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), where, based on GHG emissions monitoring and statistical data, decision-making support is provided for the national governments in the form of policy evaluation, thus forming a management mode that enables overall planning, coordination, and unified regulatory at the national level and participation of multiple departments under the national government. The synergistic control of conventional air pollutants and GHGs is becoming an important measure to strengthen the environmental management and achieve low-carbon development. This paper summarizes the synergistic effects of reducing air pollution and carbon emissions from the aspects of synergistic policies, strategic planning, and institutional systems, and conducts an analysis based on existing synergistic practices.

Scenario of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission peaking and reduction path implication in five northwestern provinces of China by the low emissions analysis platform (LEAP) model

Achieving global peaking of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions as early as possible is a common goal for all countries. However, CO2 emissions in the northwest China still show a rapid growth trend. Thus, we used the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model to build three scenarios to investigate the peak of CO2 emissions and reduction pathways in five northwestern provinces of China. The results show that: 1) the CO2 emissions of five northwestern provinces under the baseline, the policy, and the green scenarios will peak in 2035 (1663.46 × 106 tonnes), 2031 (1405.00 × 106 tonnes), and 2027 (1273.96 × 106 tonnes), respectively. 2) The CO2 emissions of all provinces, except Qinghai, will not peak before 2030 in the baseline scenario. Under the policy and green scenarios, each province will achieve the peak of CO2 emissions by 2030. 3) The CO2 emissions from agriculture, transportation, and other sectors will peak before 2030 under the baseline scenario. The CO2 emissions from construction will peak before 2030 in policy scenario. The industry and commerce will peak before 2030 in green scenario. 4) The emission reduction effect indicates that CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2040 will be reduced by 4137.70 × 106 tonnes in the policy scenario and 7201.46 × 106 tonnes in the green scenario. The industrial coal and thermal power are the sectors with the greatest potential to reduce CO2 emissions. Accelerating the restructuring of industries and energy structures and improving technologies to reduce energy intensity can promote the achievement of the peak in CO2 emissions by 2030.

Public Awareness, Lifestyle and Low-Carbon City Transformation in China: A Systematic Literature Review

Low-carbon city transformation is an important action area of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) that aims to reach peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Responding to global climate change is not only a national responsibility but also an individual responsibility and very much depends on societal participation and acceptance. While many scholars argue that public participation would be critical to low-carbon cities developing in China, there is apparently a lack of sufficient research on the level of public participation. This systematic review aims to summarize the current related research about public awareness on low-carbon city transformation in China, and learn about the challenges and barriers of public attitude and behaviour towards the low-carbon lifestyle. This study reveals that: (1) although most scholars discussed the conception and policies of low-carbon cities, research methods, the theoretical foundation and the number of cities targeted for research are limited; (2) a public’s attention to low-carbon cities mainly focus on a low-carbon life, and there is a clear gap between low-carbon awareness and behaviour; and (3) although scholars had different opinions about the factors that affect low-carbon behaviour, most of them agree that education and government policy have an influence on the populations’ low-carbon behaviour in China.

A Calculation Model of Carbon Emissions Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Electricity Consumption

In order to reach the peak of carbon emission in China by 2030 and to meet the low-carbon conversion of energy and the growing demand for electricity, this study aims to propose a more accurate and scientific method to calculate the carbon emissions of the entire power industry chain. This paper analyzes the historical actual operation data of the energy and power industry from 2000 to 2020, and originally proposes a carbon emission calculation model based on a multi-scenario simulation analysis of electricity consumption. This paper is an original study from the perspective of the whole industry chain of electricity production, transmission, and consumption. Firstly, a carbon emission model of the power system is established based on the carbon emission composition and transmission mechanism of the whole power industrial chain, which consists of calculation models for carbon emissions from overall electricity demand and carbon emissions from electricity network losses. Secondly, the concept of carbon emission coefficient is proposed, and the key parameters of the carbon emission coefficient of the power system are obtained through the econometric model. On this basis, the carbon emission coefficient is obtained by regression fitting of multiple key parameters according to historical data. Finally, electricity consumption per unit output value (ECPUOV) and per capita electricity consumption (PCEC) are used to predict electricity consumption in the next 15 years. This paper also makes a quantitative analysis of the relationship between CO2 emissions from the power system and electricity consumption. This paper takes G province, which ranks first in total energy consumption and economic aggregate in China, as an example and calculates its CO2 emissions and achievement of peak CO2 emissions by multi-scenario analysis. The case study results show that the low carbon scenario(LC) is the best route for G province to peak CO2 emissions from energy consumption. The method proposed in this paper can set an achievable goal of 2030 carbon peaking for the government and industry policymakers, and find a feasible implementation path.