The change in temporal trend and spatial distribution of CO2 emissions of China's public and commercial buildings

Abstract

The CO2 emission mitigation of the commercial and public building sector (P&C) is critical for achieving China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Analyzing changes in CO2 emissions and their driving factors from temporal and spatial perspective provides insights for developing equitable and effective decarbonization strategies. This study investigated the change in temporal trend and spatial distribution of CO2 emissions of China's P&C during period of 2005–2018 according to the Kaya identify and Gravity Center model. Meanwhile, combined with the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index, this study proposed a decomposed method to identify the driving factor of the movement of the gravity center. The results showed that: 1) in the temporal dimension, China's P&C has still not achieved its CO2 emissions peak, arriving 820.68 MtCO2. The most positive and negative driving factors were per capita add value of tertiary industry and energy efficiency, respectively; 2) in the spatial dimension, during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the gravity center moved southwestward, and the most positive and negative driving factors were energy consumption unit area and energy efficiency, respectively; Besides, to accelerate the decarbonization of China's P&C, this study reviewed the main decarbonization strategies, divided them into six categories and provided policy implications. In summary, this study provides a completed assessment on CO2 emission changes of China's P&C, facilitating policy-makers to develop more reasonable implementation plans for emission mitigation.