Dynamic scenario simulations of phased carbon peaking in China's building sector through 2030–2050

Abstract

Carbon-reduction effect of the provincial building sector is crucial to the carbon peaking target of China. This study aims to explore the different drivers of carbon emission reduction in the provincial building sector and simulate the future evolutionary trajectories of China's building sector carbon emissions. In this study, we explored the CO2 emissions (CE) drivers of China's building sector in its entirety and at the provincial level using the generalized Divisia index method to simulate CE trends under economic-development dynamically and building-demand perspectives using the Monte Carlo method. We found that the building-sector fixed-asset investment and output are the main drivers of CE growth in China at the national and provincial scales. Carbon-intensity investment and output were also found to be critical drivers of CE growth. Our dynamic-modeling scenarios indicated that the 2030 CE peak target is difficult to achieve in the operational phase of the building sector because of the building-demand; efficiency-oriented and technological advances may render this target more attainable. Due to the uneven regional development, different drivers have different impacts on CE peaking, so the peaking targets and emission-reduction policies for each provincial building sector should be formulated considering regional contexts.