Sustainable future food demand: Integrating social, health, and environmental considerations in forecasting

Abstract

Predicting future food demand and understanding its environmental and dietary ramifications are vital for ensuring food system sustainability in an equitable manner. Existing forecasting methods often overlook societal diversity and do not connect projected food demand with its socio-environmental implications. This paper introduces a framework for forecasting a nation's future food demand with considerations for socio-demographics and dietary preferences, along with potential dietary and environmental implications. Israeli household expenditure surveys spanning two decades (1997–2017) representing over 120,000 households were used to explore a series of potential food purchase scenarios for the period up to 2030 and the nutritional and environmental footprints of subgroups. These subgroups included small and large families, young couples, the elderly, and wealthy adult households. Three dietary scenarios based on expected socio-demographic changes were then examined: “Environmental,” “Healthy,” and “Mediterranean” scenarios. All examined scenarios predicted a surge in food demand by 18 to 22 % for the period of 2018–2030. The “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario emphasizes the expected rise in the consumption of meat, oil products, and food outside the home, leading to a 20 % rise in greenhouse gas emissions. In comparison, in the case of the Healthy scenario, emissions are expected to rise by 22 %, and according to the Environmental scenario by only 10 %. Significant differences were also discovered across various social groups in regard to the analyzed dietary and environmental indicators. Although the study focuses on Israel, the proposed framework's universality makes it adaptable to any country. This could empower policymakers and stakeholders to craft food security informed decisions and targeted interventions that address the needs of diverse social groups while considering socio-environmental implications both presently and in the future.