Will reaching the maximum achievable yield potential meet future global food demand?

Abstract

Population growth, an increasing proportion of animal-based food consumption, shortage of water and land resources, and impacts of climate change all make the situation of world food security more and more severe. In order to understand the future global food security situation, we quantitatively predicted global demand for food crops, yield trends of food crops, and global crop production from 2020 to 2050. Based on the analysis of caloric demand of three types of food crops (cereals, pulses, and potatoes) in the past nearly 60 years, future global food demand was projected by combining predictions of the population and gross domestic product (GDP) of various countries. At the same time, four polynomial statistical models were used to predict the yield temporal trend of the three food crops in 19 regions of the world. The crop growth model WOFOST was used to predict global yield potential. Finally, global food production was predicted under the condition of constant cultivated land area. The results showed that the food demand would maintain a steady growth rate in the next 30 years. While the growth rate of crop production is expected to gradually slow down, the yield of main food crops will likely stagnate in some countries in Europe, America and Asia. In order to achieve balance between food supply and demand, we should reduce future food demand by adjusting the diet structure and reducing food waste as much as possible. Additionally, we should clarify the potential for increasing global food production. Global food production could be increased by several possible measures, such as increasing irrigated area, appropriately increasing the amount of fertilization, and improving the efficiency of water and fertilizer use.