Simulations of CO2 emissions peak and abatement potential in China's building operations

Abstract

The building sector is the key to achieving the goal of emissions peak in China. Understanding the possibility of CO2 emissions peak and abatement potential in building sector is essential to seeking effective carbon-abatement pathways. However, there are differences in emissions from rural, urban, and public buildings, and it is unclear whether different buildings can achieve emissions peak by 2030. We mainly used Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the CO2 emissions peak and abatement potential in building operations. Our study has resulted in three findings. (1) The cumulative emission abatement in the building sector was more than 1 billion from 2000 to 2019, including 379.68 million tons from rural buildings, 383.51 million tons from urban buildings, and 248.85 million tons from public buildings. Compared to rural and urban buildings, the emission abatement performance of public buildings is the poorest. (2) CO2 emissions in the Chinese building sector will achieve its peak of 2519.85–2527.37 million tons in 2026, only under the enhanced low-carbon scenario. It is difficult for the Chinese building sector to achieve its CO2 emissions peak by 2030 under the business-as-usual and low-carbon scenarios. (3) The emission abatement potential with maximum probability in the building sector is 984.61–1005.48 million tons in 2030 under the enhanced low-carbon scenario. Public buildings have the largest emission abatement potential, accounting for about 48% of the total emission abatement potential of the building sector. This study can compensate for the limitations in emissions peak and abatement potential in different building sectors, and assist governments to set effective emission-reduction policies.