European CO2 Emissions Research Articles

Europe’s policy transition toward green steel development: Prospective and challenges

ABSTRACT Despite the increasing use of steel in the contemporary world, the iron and steel industry is one of the emitters of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The research indicates that the primary ironmaking method is responsible for about 80% of emissions and generates air pollutants linked to 4.2 million deaths yearly. Implementing advanced technologies in steel manufacturing could reduce CO2 emissions in Europe, where energy-intensive industries account for roughly 8% of the EU’s total emissions. The Steel Action Plan, introduced by the European Commission (EC), presents an exquisite and compelling solution to address the intricate challenges of surplus manufacturing capacity, formidable carbon emissions, and a scarcity of cutting-edge steel products. The European Green Deal (EGD) outlines cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50% from 1990 and increasing the use of renewable electricity by 32% by 2030, necessitating a shift away from fossil fuels in the EU’s steel industry. Even though these ambitious goals are to safeguard our planet and ensure a sustainable future for mankind, implementing various policies raises questions about their applicability. Thus, this paper delves into the pivotal role of Europe in the transformative journey toward sustainable steel production through policy implementation.

Impact of climate risk shocks on global food and agricultural markets: A multiscale and tail connectedness analysis

We examine the time-frequency nexus between climate change, agricultural and food markets over normal and extreme market conditions by employing advanced methods such as quantile cross-spectral analysis and wavelet quantile correlation. To identify how climate change affects food and agricultural market price returns, we examine daily data from January 1, 2019, to May 9, 2022, using two climate change proxies: European CO2 emissions and MSCI World Climate Paris Aligned Net indices, four global food market indices, and four agricultural commodities. Our results reveal significant insights into the impact of CO2 emissions and environmental policy on these markets, emphasizing the nuanced nature of these effects across different market conditions and time frames. The results suggest that, in the long run, environmental policies contribute positively to agricultural and food markets, while the impact of CO2 emissions manifests as predominantly negative. This research provides valuable contributions to understanding the intricate dynamics between climate change, environmental policies, and the financial aspects of food and agricultural markets.

The Role of Renewable Energy and Human Capital in Reducing Environmental Degradation in Europe and Central Asia: Panel Quantile Regression and GMM Approach

Environmental sustainability concerns are growing worldwide. Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is crucial to combating global warming and reaching sustainable global economic development. Many recent studies have focused on key indicators of CO2 emissions, but less consideration has been given to associated factors such as renewable energy and human capital. This article applies the two-step system FOD-GMM (Forward-Orthogonal Deviations-Generalized Method of Moments) to estimate the role of renewable energy and human capital in reducing environmental degradation in Europe and Central Asia. The results reveal that renewable energy consumption and human capital have a significant negative impact on CO2 emissions in the EU and Central Asian countries, government efficiency has a positive effect on CO2 emissions, and economic development has a neutral effect, confirming the strong role of renewable energy and human capital in reducing CO2 emissions in EU and Central Asian countries. The role of human capital and renewable energy in promoting CO2 reduction should be fully utilized. Policymakers should develop infrastructure for renewable energy and education to support the decrease in CO2 emissions in Europe and Central Asia.

Decarbonisation of the steel industry: theoretical and practical approaches with analysis of the situation in the steel sector in Poland

Climate change and environmental degradation are nowadays the key challenges of the industries in Europe (according to the European Green Deal). The primary goal is to achieve a climate-neutral in Europe by 2050. Technologies with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions should be completely stopped in the future. The iron and steel industry is among the manufacturing industries with high CO2 emissions in Europe. In Poland, steel mills produce about 9 million tonnes of steel per year (average for 2000-2021). Steel mills in Poland use two steel production technologies, EAF and BOF. The first technology is highly energy intensive, and the second has high emissions of CO2. There will be no BF technology in zero-emission smelters; this technology will be replaced by DRI (i.e., direct iron reduction) installations, and electric furnaces will be powered by renewable energy. The paper consists of two parts: a theoretical section and a practical section. In the first section, the way the steel industry moves towards climate neutrality was presented. The part of the paper was realized based on European documents and a literature review. The second part was an analysis of the CO2 emission in the steel industry in Poland. The analysis was realized based on data from the Polish Steel Association.

Can weather variables and electricity demand predict carbon emissions allowances prices? Evidence from the first three phases of the EU ETS

This study examines the predictive impact of weather conditions and electricity demand on hourly spot prices of emissions allowances during the first three phases of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) (2005–2019). We propose an original methodology for constructing European-scale electricity demand and weather indices and characterize the relationship between those indices and emissions allowances prices by means of an advanced predictive modeling technique (Extreme Gradient Boosting). Empirical findings assert that electricity demand and the weather variables under study were of importance for estimating EUA prices during the first three phases of the EU ETS, with air temperature and electricity demand being most relevant to emissions allowances prices. Conversely, total precipitation and relative humidity proved to be the least relevant variables to the outcome. The results also indicate that the relationship between emissions allowances prices and their weather-related predictors was not linear in the studied period. The paper contributes to the growing body of literature on the structural determinants of carbon prices in the EU ETS and enhances our understanding of the impact of climate and weather variability – in the provision of renewable energy production – on the most prominent market-based measure to reduce CO2 emissions in Europe.

Residential CO2 Emissions in Europe and Carbon Taxation: A Country-Level Assessment

This paper examines the determinants of residential CO2 emissions, which are not covered by the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), in 19 European countries between 2000-2017. Using both static and dynamic panel models, we found strong relationships between CO2 emissions per capita, GDP per capita, energy prices and heating needs. We then assessed the impact of European carbon taxation and show that a €20/tonne CO2 tax lowers emissions by 1% on average. We found that this tax affects countries differently in terms of tax revenue-to-GDP ratio. Poland and the Czech Republic would have to pay the highest contribution, and Portugal and Denmark the lowest. Finally, we propose a scenario that equalizes countries’ tax burdens. We show that, were Europe to redistribute all tax revenues, the main beneficiaries would be Poland and Belgium, while Denmark and Luxembourg would have to pay a surtax.

Time-Varying and Scale-Dependent Informational Efficiency of the European CO2 Emissions Market: An Analysis Based on Singular Value Decomposition Entropy

This work examined the informational efficiency of the European CO2 emission trading market for the different implementation phases in the period 2008–2022:Q3. The approach is based on a bootstrap singular value decomposition (SVD) approach and the analysis was conducted for a rolling window to assess the time-varying efficiency and over different time scales. The impact of the COVID-19 lockdown and the Russia–Ukraine conflict was evaluated. The results showed that the informational efficiency changes over time and scales, which is in line with adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) notions. High market efficiency was exhibited in Phase II (2008–2012), but large deviations from efficiency, especially for quarterly scale, were exhibited in Phase III. However, Phase IV has shown a behavior consistent with informational efficiency. The COVID-19 outbreak negatively impacted informational efficiency. On the other hand, it seems that the Russia–Ukraine conflict has improved informational efficiency due to the European decisions to move to energy independence policies. The findings in this study suggest that the European carbon market is gradually attaining a state of financial maturity.

Paper Review of External Integrated Systems as Photovoltaic Shading Devices

The building sector contributes to 40% of the total final energy consumption and 36% of CO2 emissions in Europe, and these are set to increase in the coming years. International directives are pushing towards a decarbonisation roadmap to improve the quality of cities and the health of citizens. Buildings have a potentially central role in terms of energy transition as a means to produce and save energy. Photovoltaic shading devices (PVSDs) protect buildings from direct solar radiation and overheating while producing renewable electricity onsite and increasing the users’ thermal comfort. Even though the potential of the PVSD is considerable, the sector is still unexplored, and few studies on the topic are available in the literature. This systematic review aims to present an exhaustive overview of the current literature on state-of-the-art PVSDs by analysing the scientific framework in terms of the status of the research. It presents a performance-based approach focusing on innovative products, PVSD design strategies, and energetic performance in distinct climate conditions and configurations. In particular, 75 articles and about 250 keywords were identified, selected, and analysed. The literature review serves as a basis for further R&D activities led by both the industrial and the academic sectors.

Energy structure and carbon emission: Analysis against the background of the current energy crisis in the EU

The Ukraine war, evolving from a geopolitical crisis to an energy crisis, calls attention to understanding the impacts of restarting oil- and coal-fired power plants on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. To fill the remaining research gaps relating to energy structure and CO2 emissions in Europe, in this study, we systematically investigate the carbon emissions (CE) and their influencing factors, especially those energy-related, from 1995 to 2020. We find that European Union (EU) countries are currently at different stages of the energy transition. The CO2 emissions in the EU show clear positive spatial dependence. Thus, we deploy the spatial Durbin model to analyze the influences of consuming coal, oil, natural gas, hydropower, solar and wind energy, nuclear power, and other renewable energy sources on CE. It is observed that natural gas is the only fossil fuel source that does not have a significant positive effect on CO2 emissions. The developments of hydropower, nuclear power, and other renewable energy sources have significant negative impacts on CE. Estimation results of direct and indirect effects clearly show that many energy sources have spillover effects, suggesting that to fulfill future climate targets, joint-effort must be made among the EU member states.

Insights into CO2 emissions in Europe in the context of COVID-19: A panel data analysis

This paper analyzes the dynamics of CO2 emissions over the last decade for a large group of 25 European countries, an issue that is at the center of the ecological transition project involving various commitments (COP21, COP26, G20 meetings, etc.). To this end, our model measures the repercussions of energy price shocks (oil, gas, coal) for carbon emissions, as well as changes in industrial production and sustainable development in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. Using annual data for 23 EU countries, together with Russia and the UK, our findings show that CO2 emissions reacted significantly to oil and coal price shocks and vary with industrial production cycles. We quantified this reaction while computing the related elasticities. Further, while a significant reduction in CO2 emissions was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, the stepping up of investment in sustainable development and renewable energy consumption also had a negative impact on CO2 emissions. This suggests that the key driver to reducing the risk of climate change and lowering high carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions involves significant commitment to sustainable development.

A Multipurpose Simulation Approach for Hybrid Electric Vehicles to Support the European CO2 Emissions Framework

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) are a prominent solution for reducing CO2 emissions from transport in Europe. They are equipped with at least two propulsion energy converters, an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) and one or more Electric Machines (EMs), operated in a way to exploit synergies and achieve fuel efficiency. Because of the variety in configurations and strategies, the use of simulation is essential for vehicle development and characterisation of energy consumption. This paper introduces a novel simulation approach to estimate the CO2 emissions from different hybrid architectures (series, parallel, power-split) and electrification degrees (mild, full, plug-in and range extender) that is relatively simple, flexible and accurate. The approach identifies the optimal power split between the energy converters for any given time in a driving cycle according to three evaluation levels: supervisor, ICE manager and optimiser. The latter relies on the Equivalent Consumption Minimisation Strategy (ECMS) and the limitations imposed by the other two layers. Six light-duty HEVs with different hybrid architectures were tested to support the development of the approach. The results show an indicative accuracy of ±5%, enabling to run assessments of hybrid powertrain solutions and supporting regulatory and consumer information initiatives.

Do consumers think about green transport when buying cars? Results from an empirical study

25% of the European CO2 emissions originate from the transport sector, with the Green Deal aiming to cut transport-related emissions by 90% by 2050. One pillar is the awareness of consumers about the role of transport in purchasing decisions. We investigate the role of green transport when purchasing cars from a consumers’ perspective and found that fewer people think about green logistics when buying cars than in other areas of consumption, such as food and clothes. Consumers rate green transport less important when buying cars than other criteria such as appearance or price. There is a higher willingness to pay and acceptance of longer waiting times for an eco-friendly transported car. We found that women have a significantly higher acceptance of eco-friendly measures than men. The results suggest that awareness of green transport must be created and communicated transparently.

Investigating the economic and environmental impacts of a technological shift towards hydrogen-based solutions for steel manufacture in high-renewable electricity mix scenarios for Italy

Steel production is one of the most carbon-intensive industrial sectors, responsible for 8% of European CO2 emissions. While traditional furnaces strongly rely on the consumption of coal or natural gas, potential opportunities for decarbonization stand in the adoption of alternative technologies such as hydrogen-based Direct Reduction Iron (DRI) coupled with Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF). This work focuses on the Italian steel sector and aims at assessing the potential economic and environmental impact of a switch towards such hydrogen-based technology. Three scenarios have been analyzed, all of which are grounded on the common assumption that hydrogen is produced by employing electrolyzers purchasing electricity from the grid. In the first scenario, the share of electricity production from renewable sources (RES) in the national electricity mix coincides with the one in the current Italian situation. The second scenario reflects the national target of 55% of electricity generated by low-carbon technologies. In the last scenario, the RES share in the electricity mix is 100%, meaning steel production plants are fully supplied with green hydrogen. The analysis is carried out by adopting a multi-regional input-output model for sectorial LCA, which allows to highlight the interlinkages of the steel industry with other sectors in different regional areas. The results show that a switch to DRI with EAF technology, coupled with the increase of RES penetration, allows to reduce the CO2 emissions of the Italian steel sector up to 14%, leading to an increase in employment of about 12 thousand units. It is also worth noting that a larger penetration of electricity produced from RES, which are mostly local, would be a significant improvement in terms of energy security of the steel sector, lowering its dependence on foreign fossil resources.

Emissions of CO2 in Europe and the Asia–pacific region: Panel data model

The rapid growth of CO2 emissions determines the problem of global warming, which has now become a severe threat to humanity. This work aimed to identify significant factors and assess their impact on CO2 emissions in Europe and the Asia–Pacific region using a panel data model. The authors have established the following factors’ influence on CO2 emissions in European countries - GDP, consumption of fossil energy resources, population, urbanization, and in the Asia–Pacific countries - GDP, population, and “green factors”. A positive coefficient before the GDP factor confirms the impact of economic growth on the amount of CO2 emissions. The authors also revealed that the “green factor” is not significant for European countries, since the development of alternative energy in Europe has reached the limit when the influence of the “green factor” significantly reduces emissions. However, for the Asia–Pacific region, as the largest region in terms of emissions, the “green factor” and the share of gas consumption had a negative impact on the dependent variable. Technological and institutional development of countries will be the main factor in determining competitiveness in international trade.

The impact of renewable energy and urbanization on CO2 emissions in Europe – Spatio-temporal approach

Renewable energy use and urbanization level do have an impact on the air quality that can be expressed by the CO2 emissions. However, it is not evident whether they positively or negatively influence the environment. The logical thinking suggests that generating energy from renewable energy sources shall benefit the air quality. However, none of the energy sources, even those renewable ones, create zero environmental impact. The same applies to the urbanization level as a theoretical factor that should cause more CO2 emissions. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to assess what is the impact of renewable energy use and urbanization level on the CO2 emissions in Europe from 1995 to 2018. Applying a spatio-temporal approach, the results of this paper indicate that the levels of CO2 emissions and urbanization declined towards the East and rose towards the North, whereas the share of renewable energy use increased towards the North. The values of the share of renewable energy use and urbanization increased over time, while the CO2 emissions level had a faster than linear decrease over the years. The analysis proved that an increase in the share of renewable energy use leads to less CO2 emissions, while an increase in the urbanization level harms the air quality.

Assessment of the Impact of the Circular Economy on CO2 Emissions in Europe

The circular economy is entirely in line with the European Commission’s long-term strategy aimed at moving toward an economy without any climate impact by 2050 (European Commission, 2018). Yet, to our knowledge, there is little work that analyzes the impact of the circular economy on CO2 emissions in Europe. The objective of this study is to analyze, at the level of the European Union (EU-15), the impact of the circular economy on CO2 emissions using an Autoregressive-Distributed Lag model (ARDL). The results of the study over the period 2000-2015 show that, in the long term, circular economy practices tend to reduce CO2 emissions, while in the short term, the effect is the opposite. The short-term results also question the modalities of our economic growth and the need to find a consensus between “efficiency and sufficiency” in order to limit resource consumption and CO2 emissions.JEL Codes: Q53, C23

Does Renewable Energy Sector Affect Industrialization-CO2 Emissions Nexus in Europe and Central Asia?

Current research assesses the impact of industrialization and the renewable energy sector on greenhouse gas emissions, proxied by CO2 emissions in Europe and Central Asia. We rely on a two-step system GMM estimator on a sample of 48 countries over the period 2000–2018. Empirical results show that industrialization has a positive effect on CO2 emissions: a 10% increase in industry value added as % of GDP leads to an increase of 2.6% in CO2 emissions. In contrast, renewable energy mitigates CO2 emissions. Ten percentage points increase in renewable energy consumption reduces CO2 emissions per capita by 2.2%. The interaction term between renewable energy and industry value added is negative, suggesting that renewable energy consumption compensates for the negative effect of industrialization on environmental quality. Our main results also confirm the U-shaped inverted relationship between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions. Our study has a number of policy implications and avenues for future research.

Fine-tuning energy efficiency subsidies allocation for maximum savings in residential buildings

Energy consumption in buildings accounts for more than a third of European CO2 emissions. The existing building stock shows the most potential for energy savings but at the expense of costly renovations. Thus, public intervention is decisive in driving transformation in this sector. However, policymakers mostly rely on heat estimates to develop energy-saving policies, limiting the possibility of aligning renovation support policy with environmental gain, slowing down the decarbonization effort. This study explores the benefits of using metered heat demand data with detailed building archetypes for impactful renovation subsidy allocation. We quantify the missed CO2 emissions due to inaccuracies in heat demand estimates and develop an optimization model to quantify the impact of such inaccuracies on subsidy allocation. For the case study of Lyngby-Taarbæk municipality in Denmark, we find systematic bias in heat demand estimates that attribute higher heat demand to older houses than reality and inversely to newer family houses. Such bias results in the misallocation of 39% of total CO2 emissions and distortion of 40% of the total subsidy. Ultimately, our results help policymakers identify buildings that should be prioritized for a maximum decarbonization impact.

Global warming is shifting the relationships between fire weather and realized fire-induced CO2 emissions in Europe

Fire activity has significantly changed in Europe over the last decades (1980–2020s), with the emergence of summers attaining unprecedented fire prone weather conditions. Here we report a significant shift in the non-stationary relationship linking fire weather conditions and fire intensity measured in terms of CO2 emissions released during biomass burning across a latitudinal gradient of European IPCC regions. The reported trends indicate that global warming is possibly inducing an incipient change on regional fire dynamics towards increased fire impacts in Europe, suggesting that emerging risks posed by exceptional fire-weather danger conditions may progressively exceed current wildfire suppression capabilities in the next decades and impact forest carbon sinks.

How COVID-19 Affected GHG Emissions of Ferries in Europe

Unprecedented socioeconomic conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic impacted shipping. We combined ferry CO2 emissions in Europe (from the EU-MRV) with port call data and vessel parameters, and analysed them using mixed-effects linear models with interactions. We found a generalized reduction in unitary emissions in 2020, confirming its causal relation with COVID-19. Furthermore, for larger ferries, additional and COVID-19-related reductions between 14% and 31% occurred, with the larger reductions for those built before 1999. Ferries operating in the Baltic and Mediterranean Seas experienced comparable reductions in their unitary emissions, but in the North Sea per-ship emissions decreased by an additional 18%. Per-ship emissions at berth, while showing increases or decreases depending on ferry type, did not significantly change at the fleet level. We believe that our methodology may help assess the progress of shipping toward decarbonisation in the presence of external shocks.