Climate Warming Research Articles

Climate change and the cost-of-living squeeze in desert lizards

Climate warming can induce a cost-of-living “squeeze” in ectotherms by increasing energetic expenditures while reducing foraging gains. We used biophysical models (validated by 2685 field observations) to test this hypothesis for 10 ecologically diverse lizards in African and Australian deserts. Historical warming (1950–2020) has been more intense in Africa than in Australia, translating to an energetic squeeze for African diurnal species. Although no net impact on Australian diurnal species was observed, warming generated an energetic “relief” (by increasing foraging time) for nocturnal species. Future warming impacts will be more severe in Africa than in Australia, requiring increased rates of food intake (+10% per hour active for diurnal species). The effects of climate warming on desert lizard energy budgets will thus be species-specific but potentially predictable.

Ocean acidification may contribute to recruitment failure for Bering Sea red king crab

We used semi-parametric Bayesian regression to determine whether ocean acidification or climate warming could explain declining productivity for southeast Bering Sea red king crab (Paralithodes camtchaticus). Negative effects of acidification explained ~21% of recruitment variability over 1980-2023, and ~45% since 2000. Ocean warming had a negligible effect in our analysis. Model-estimated annual mean bottom pH in the region has fallen from ~8.03 in 1980 to ~7.89 in 2023, approaching levels that reduce juvenile survival in laboratory studies. Improved model validation and better understanding of potential threshold effects on red king crab are needed to better understand the possible population-level acidification effect that we demonstrate.

Atmospheric River Frequency‐Category Characteristics Shape U.S. West Coast Runoff

AbstractThis study investigates the factors influencing runoff response to atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the U.S. West Coast. We focused on runoff time series variations impacted by AR characteristics (e.g., category and frequency) and land preconditions during Northern Hemisphere cool seasons in the period of 1940–2023. Results show that high‐category ARs significantly increase local runoff with higher hourly precipitation rates leading to a greater incremental rate and peak runoff. Extreme runoff increases greatly with the AR category with an increase rate up to 12.5 times stronger than non‐extreme runoff. Besides the AR category, land preconditions such as soil moisture and snowpack also play crucial roles in modulating runoff response. We found that runoff induced by weak‐category ARs is more sensitive to land preconditions than high‐category ARs, with high peak runoff occurring when soil is nearly saturated. Additionally, more than 50% of high‐peak‐runoff events in snow‐covered grid cells are associated with rain‐on‐snow events particularly for the events associated with weaker ARs. Regression analysis reveals that AR precipitation and land preconditions jointly influence runoff, emphasizing the importance of including soil moisture and snowpack levels in AR impact assessments. The study also highlights the intensified runoff response to back‐to‐back ARs with short intervals, which may become more frequent with climate warming, posing increased flood risks via facilitating wet soil conditions. Our findings have significant implications for AR risk predictions and the development of prediction models for AR‐induced runoff.

Environment of European Last Mammoths: Reconstructing the Landcover of the Eastern Baltic Area at the Pleistocene/Holocene Transition

The Eastern Baltic area stands out as a unique location due to the finds of Europe’s youngest dated mammoth remains (12.6–11.2 ka cal BP). Our study explores the drastic climate and landcover changes during the extinction of these gigantic herbivores at the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary. We used macrofossil analysis to determine the major contemporary terrestrial plant genera present in the area and used corresponding pollen taxa for REVEALS model-based landcover reconstructions. Our results indicate that these last mammoths utilised the open landcover of the Eastern Baltic, which developed as the continental ice sheet retreated during the termination of the last glaciation. Due to climate warming during the initial stages of the Holocene interglacial, the Eastern Baltic became speedily populated by birch and pine forests. The abrupt disappearance of typical forb-dominated tundra indicators, such as Dryas octopetala, and the fast increase in tree birch marked a shift from an open, tundra-like landscape to a forested one, making the environment inhospitable for mammoths even in northernmost Estonia by the beginning of the Holocene. A comparison between the isotopic values of nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) obtained from mammoths’ molars from 14.3 and 11.3 to 43.5 and 39.1 ka cal BP showed that mammoths experienced a decline in the nutritional value of their diet, resulting in their demise in the Eastern Baltic.

Comparing microsatellites and single nucleotide polymorphisms to evaluate genetic structure and diversity in wolverines (Gulo gulo) across Alaska and western Canada

Abstract The Wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a cold-adapted species of conservation interest because it is sensitive to human development, disturbance, exploitation, and climate warming. Wolverine populations have been studied across much of their distributional range to evaluate patterns of genetic diversity, genetic structure, and gene flow. Little population structure has been detected in northwestern North America with microsatellite loci, but low genomic diversity in wolverines may limit detection of genetic differences in this highly vagile species. Here, we genotyped a relatively large sample of wolverines from across Alaska (US) and adjacent Yukon (Canada) with 12 microsatellite loci (n = 501) and 4,222 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; n = 201) identified using restriction-site associated DNA sequencing. We compared the relative ability of our microsatellite and SNP datasets to evaluate population genetic structure, genetic diversity, differentiation, and isolation by distance (IBD). We predicted that the SNP dataset would detect a higher degree of genetic structure and provide more significant support for IBD. We found evidence for multiple genetic clusters, including genetic distinctiveness of wolverines in southeast Alaska and on the Kenai Peninsula. The SNP dataset detected additional genetic clusters that align largely with ecoregions, and the SNP dataset showed stronger evidence of IBD, while the 2 datasets were generally consistent in estimates of genetic diversity and differentiation among regional groups. Our results highlight the importance of genomic methods to assess gene flow in wolverines. Identifying population genetic structure allows an assessment of the potential impacts of conservation threats and is an important precursor for designing population monitoring programs.

Wind farms reduce grassland plant community diversity and lead to plant community convergence

Climate warming has become a hot issue of common concern all over the world, and wind energy has become an important clean energy source. Wind farms, usually built in wild lands like grassland, may cause damage to the initial ecosystem and biodiversity. However, the impact of wind farms on the functional diversity of plant communities remains a subject with unclear outcomes. In this study, we chose 108 sample plots and identified 10 plant functional traits through a field vegetation survey. We used general linear regression analysis to assess how wind farm influenced vegetation community diversity, focusing on ten distinct plant functional traits. The study revealed that wind farm had significant impacts on grassland plant communities, diminishing diversity and functional traits, which leads to species composition convergence. Additionally, wind farm increased certain functional traits, like height and leaf area, while decreasing phosphorus content. Furthermore, the productivity of these plant communities was reduced by wind farm presence. This study highlights the negative consequences of wind farms in Inner Mongolia on plant diversity, aiming to offer scientific recommendations for the optimal arrangement of wind farms to safeguard biodiversity.

Climate Projections and Pacific Lamprey Conservation: Evidence That Larvae in Natural Conditions May Be Resilient to Climate Warming

In many areas where larval Pacific lampreys currently rear, maximum stream temperatures may approach 27–31 °C during the next 75 years. Whether larval Pacific lampreys in natural conditions can tolerate these temperatures is unknown. To evaluate this ability, we conducted Direct Acute Exposure (DAE) experiments using simulated natural daily temperature (SNT) cycles in the laboratory and occupancy surveys in the Umatilla River (river). When evaluated relative to daily maximum temperatures, after seven days in DAE experiments, 78–100% of larvae survived in 29.1 °C, only larvae acclimated to 26.8 °C survived in 31.0 °C, and no larvae survived in 33.6 °C. Based on daily maximum temperatures, the ultimate upper incipient lethal temperature was estimated to be >30.8 °C using a time to death analysis and >32.0 °C using a percent mortality analysis. Some larvae acclimated to 31.0 °C were also able to survive four consecutive days with a daily maximum temperature of 33.6 °C. In 2018–2020, warm areas of the river experienced maximum temperatures in July and August that ranged from 27.7 to 33.9 °C, while cool areas experienced maximum temperatures <27.7 °C. Before, during and after the period of maximum temperatures each year, larvae occupied both areas. Detection probabilities ranged from 0.83 to 1.00 and were similar for each area and for all survey periods. This work suggests that ectothermic, larval Pacific lampreys in natural environments may be resilient to the water temperatures that are likely to result from climate warming. It is unclear whether relatively high but sublethal temperatures may impact the behavior, and ultimately survival, of larval Pacific lampreys.

Overseas Expansion of Chinese Winter Sports Science and Technology Enterprise Taking Love Ski as an Example

With the vigorous development of Chinese winter sports, the international expansion of science and technology enterprises has become an important way to enhance the competitiveness of the industry. From the perspective of the current market situation, Europe accounts for 45% of the global ski market but faces challenges such as climate warming, rising costs, and sharp decline in tourists, while North America accounts for 25% and remains stable. The Asia-Pacific region accounts for 20%, and China has the fastest growth. This market landscape provides opportunities for Chinese enterprises, especially in the output of intelligent solutions and operational optimization services. However, enterprises still need to deal with challenges such as market uncertainty, cultural differences, and legal compliance. In response to these challenges, enterprises need to increase technology research and development, establish a cross-cultural service system, build overseas branches, expand marketing channels, and improve business models. Taking Love Ski Sports Development Company Limited (Love Ski) as an example, this paper discusses the pathway for enterprises to achieve internationalization through strategies such as technological innovation, cross-cultural services, and localized operations, and provides a practical reference for the industry.

Widening of Wind Stress Anomalies Amplifies ENSO in a Warming Climate

Abstract Climate change simulations generally indicate the strengthening of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability through the twenty-first century, yet a robust physical mechanism explaining this change across different models is still lacking, and the projections for ENSO amplitude exhibit a large spread. Most commonly, changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific are invoked to explain these changes of ENSO. Here, we show that changes in the structure of wind stress anomalies associated with ENSO are potentially as important as these background state changes. Specifically, changes in the magnitude, meridional width, and zonal structure of wind stress anomalies can explain approximately 53% of the intermodel variance in the projected change of ENSO magnitude through the twenty-first century as well as 43% in ENSO periodicity changes. Among these changes in the wind structure, the meridional widening of wind anomalies plays the most important role. To demonstrate that these changes are indeed critical, we develop a hybrid model of ENSO based on the Community Earth System Model, version 2, which incorporates a dynamical ocean coupled to a simplified statistical atmosphere within the tropical Pacific. In the absence of external forcing and corresponding mean-state changes, the imposed changes in wind stress anomalies in this hybrid model result in an increase of ENSO amplitudes of nearly 10% along the equator. Our results are also theoretically supported by a recharge-oscillator model that incorporates the meridional wind structure. Thus, changes in the structure of wind stress anomalies, together with changes in the mean state, likely play a critical role in the projected strengthening of ENSO.

Clouds reduce downwelling longwave radiation over land in a warming climate

Clouds reduce downwelling longwave radiation over land in a warming climate

Episodic warm climates on early Mars primed by crustal hydration

Episodic warm climates on early Mars primed by crustal hydration

Phylogenetic relationships of Smilax astrosperma (Smilacaceae) with other Smilax species and its potential distribution patterns in karst areas of south China

The genus Smilax is adapted for growth in karst areas of south China, likely because of the karst habitat heterogeneity of the area and climate factors. However, the phylogenetic relationships among different species in this genus and impact of environmental changes on its geographic distribution patterns remain unclear. Therefore, we assembled the 11 chloroplast genomes of the genus Smilax and reconstructed its phylogeny using the maximum‐likelihood method to confirm the phylogenetic relationships of Smilax astrosperma among 28 other Smilax genus species. In addition, a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was applied to evaluate and predict the potential distribution of S. astrosperma using bioclimatic variables, soil environment, elevation, slope degree and aspect, and human footprints under present and predicted future climate scenarios. The results show that S. astrosperma has a close relationship with S. glabra in the genus Smilax. The average temperature of the coldest quarter is a crucial factor influencing the distribution of S. astrosperma in karst areas. The potential distribution range of S. astrosperma increases and decreases under the SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. These findings highlight that S. astrosperma and other species of the karst areas of south China need special attention under climate warming since both warming itself and extreme weather events threaten their survival.

Revealing the mismatch in the response to warm-wetting climate of vegetation greenness and primary productivity using MODIS GPP/LAI in Nepal

Abstract The increasingly warm-wetting climate has gradually promoted vegetation greenness on the Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding region, yet the specific mechanisms driving this change in high-altitude mountainous areas remain unclear. This study, using Nepal as a case study, investigated the spatial and temporal impacts of hydro-climatic factors on leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP), as well as the coupling degree of GPP-LAI expressed as the correlation coefficient (R 2) of these trends from 2003 to 2020. The results indicated both GPP and LAI increased significantly more during the dry season than the rainy season in Nepal, but the coupling degree of GPP-LAI in Nepal showed distinct seasonal and elevational differences. Relative to low coupling degree in high and low elevation regions, a higher yet gradually decreasing coupling degree was demonstrated in the mid high regions of central Nepal. By analyzing the effects of elevational profiles, this study revealed that temperature and solar radiation exhibited significant negative correlations with GPP in the southern and central forests at mid elevation, while suggesting a positive correlation in the high mountain alpine forests, which mitigated the limiting effects of precipitation constraints on GPP during the dry season. And the decreased temperature and precipitation had negative impacts on treeline deviation, which led to spatial variations in treeline deviation and coupling degree on either side of the 83°E in the Nepalese Himalayan alpine forests. Additionally, trends of shrubland in GPP and LAI growth reflected adaptations to a warmer and wetter climate. The study about spatio-temporal variation in response to warm-wetting climate, affected by seasons and elevations, offers a scientific basis for the adaptation and conservation of alpine vegetation in Nepal.

Sedimentary Characteristics of Shallow Water Delta: A Case Study from the Paleogene Funing Formation in the Haian Sag of the Subei Basin, China

Haian Depression is one of the key areas for oil and gas resource replacement in Jiangsu Oilfield. Since the 13th cycle of the Five Year Plan, with the continuous improvement in the exploration level of the Taizhou Formation (K2t), the difficulty of tapping potential has gradually increased. It is urgent to change our thinking and expand new exploration layers. From the perspective of oil and gas display frequency in different layers of the Haian Depression, except for K2t, the oil and gas systems with the Fusan Member (E1f3) as the main reservoir have good oil and gas display frequency, demonstrating great exploration potential. This study of sedimentary characteristics is the basis of analyzing the sedimentary environment and lithofacies paleogeographic conditions and is of great significance for determining the distribution range of subtle oil and gas reservoirs. Based on this understanding, this study was specially established to systematically analyze the logging curves of forty-three wells in the research area, combined with core observations of eighteen coring wells and the analysis of eight seismic profiles. The results show that the low slope, warm and humid climate, sufficient provenance, and frequent lake level rise and fall cycles during the deposition period of the E1f3 member of the Haian Sag provide a favorable depositional background for the development of shallow water delta in the study area. There are many gullies in the research area, mainly consisting of U-shaped gullies and W-shaped gullies. Slope breaks are mainly affected by structural factors leading to fractures, and the types are mostly fault terrbreakslope breaks. In the study area, the shallow water delta deposits during the deposition period of the four key sand groups in the Fu3 Formation are dominated by the shallow water delta front and shallow water prodelta. The shallow water delta plain subfacies are not significantly developed because of erosion. The sand bodies are mainly distributed in the Sunjiawa Subdepression, and the Fuan Subdepression in the north of the depression, and the sand bodies in the plane show the filling characteristics of the strip. Based on the above research, a sedimentary model of shallow water delta during the E1f3 section of the Haian Depression was established, providing a geological basis for the design of exploration and development plans for hidden oil and gas reservoirs in the next step.

Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on the Asia Habitat Suitability of Troides helena Using the MaxEnt Model

Butterflies are highly sensitive to climate change, and Troides helena, as an endangered butterfly species, is also affected by these changes. To enhance the conservation of T. helena and effectively plan its protected areas, it is crucial to understand the potential impacts of climate change on its distribution. This study utilized a MaxEnt model in combination with ArcGIS technology to predict the global potential suitable habitats of T. helena under current and future climate conditions, using the species’ distribution data and relevant environmental variables. The results indicated that the MaxEnt model provided a good prediction accuracy for the distribution of T. helena. Under the current climate scenario, the species is primarily distributed in tropical regions, with high suitability areas concentrated in tropical rainforest climates. In future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat areas for T. helena in medium and high suitability categories generally show an expansion trend, which increases over time. Especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, by the 2090s, the area of high suitability for T. helena is projected to increase by 42.85%. The analysis of key environmental factors revealed that precipitation of the wettest quarter (Bio16) was the most significant environmental factor affecting the distribution of T. helena. The species has high demands for precipitation and temperature and can adapt to future climate warming. This study is valuable for identifying the optimal conservation areas for T. helena and provides a reference for future conservation efforts.

Effect of Experimental Warming on Forage Nutritive Value and Storage in Alpine Meadows at Three Different Altitudes of Nianqing Tanggula Mountain, Northern Tibet: A Long-Term Experience

Effects of climate warming on nutrition quality and storage of alpine grasslands are still controversial, which is not conducive to the management and utilization of alpine grasslands. A long-term warming experiment (with open-top chambers used to elevate temperature) was conducted at three elevations (relatively low, mid-, and high elevations with 4313, 4513, and 4693 m) of Northern Tibet in 2010 to compare the differences in forage nutritional quality and storage response to warming among three elevations and to explore the relationships between forage nutritional quality and production. In 2019, community surveys, observations of forage biomass and nutrition quality, and soil physicochemical properties were carried out. Forage nutrition quality included crude protein (CP), acid detergent fiber (ADF), neutral detergent fiber (NDF), ether extract (EE), crude ash (Ash), and water-soluble carbohydrate (WSC) content. Warming did not affect community aboveground biomass (AGB) at the three elevations. Warming improved community nutrition quality by increasing community CP content by 25.80% and decreasing community NDF content by 15.51% at the low elevation. In contrast, warming reduced community nutrition quality by increasing community CP, ADF, and NDF contents by 13.45%, 23.68%, and 17.43%, respectively, and decreasing Ash content by 39.50% at the high elevation. Warming did not affect community CP, ADF, NDF, EE, Ash, or WSC contents at the mid-elevation. Warming increased community nutrition storage by increasing community CP, ADF, and NDF storges by 74.69%, 88.18%, and 79.71%, respectively, at the high elevation. Warming did not affect community nutrition storages at the low or mid-elevations. Overall, forbs had higher CP, EE, Ash, and WSC contents and lower ADF and NDF contents compared with graminoids. Community EE content increased with community AGB, but community CP, ADF, NDF, EE, Ash, and WSC contents were not related to community AGB. Therefore, from the low to high elevation, the effects of warming on forage nutrition quality gradually changed from improving to inhibiting. Warming altered rangeland quality by affecting forage nutrition quality rather than forage production. There were no trade-offs between forage nutrition quality and forage production.

Carbon Footprint of Masson Pine (Pinus massoniana) Seedlings in Southern China: A Life Cycle Inventory and Sensitivities

Masson pine is a crucial species for afforestation and timber production in China; it plays an important role in mitigating global climate warming and increasing carbon sinks. Previous studies have primarily focused on the carbon sequestration potential and carbon storage of mature Masson pine plantations, while studies on the carbon footprint have received little attention. China produces hundreds of millions of seedlings annually, and estimating the carbon footprint of seedling production is crucial for assessing the carbon sink of forestry. By surveying existing Masson pine nursery operations for primary data in Guangxi, southern China, a new process-based life cycle inventory (LCI) dataset per 4 × 8 cm seedling was created, covering all stages from seed collection to the transportation of seedlings to retailers. Incorporating the new LCI data into the life cycle assessment (LCA) method, the total global warming (GW) impact of Masson pine seedlings was estimated to be 0.0232 kg CO2eq, equivalent to 0.873 kg CO2eq per gallon seeding. In this case, the total environmental impact of the Masson pine seedling was dominated by energy consumption (25.76%), chemical fertilizer production and N₂O emissions generated from its application (34.84%), and woven bag use in seedling dispatch (10.77%). Our results indicated that optimizing energy structures and implementing efficient water and nutrient management strategies could significantly reduce carbon emissions during seedling cultivation. This study highlights the potential for optimizing Masson pine production as a model for low-carbon forestry practices globally.

Exploring the impact of elevated pH and short maceration on the deterioration of red wines: physical and chemical perspectives

This study explored the impact of high pH and short maceration on red wines' physical and chemical traits and stability. Specifically, wines from Petit verdot, Merlot, Malbec and Tempranillo grapes, harvested in a tropical wine-producing region, were analysed. A consistent maceration period of 96 hours was applied in all vinification trials. After six months of bottling, parameters such as colour, acetaldehyde levels, higher alcohols and phenolic compounds were assessed. The findings highlighted significant impacts of grape pH on chemical stability, influenced by the phenolic profile of each grape variety. The short maceration period reduced phenolic compound extraction in high-pH musts, leading to decreased antioxidant potential and chemical stability. Critical indicators included colorimetric parameters, acetaldehyde and free SO₂ content. Acetaldehyde levels were strongly correlated with free SO₂ consumption and colour variations, signifying oxidative processes. Wines with higher concentrations of (+)-catechin, procyanidins and monomeric anthocyanins exhibited enhanced stability, while the presence of hydroxycinnamic acids was associated with oxidative changes. Caffeic acid emerged as a potential marker of oxidative stress, particularly in grapes from warmer climates. To improve the stability of wines made from high-pH grapes, extended maceration times or increased SO₂ dosages may be required.

Analysis on the Effects of Ocean on Temperature

Nowadays, global climate change is one of the main concerns of modern society and an enormous issue for all humankind. Temperature is closely related to the greenhouse effect, so one of the major topics to be investigated in global climate is the factors affecting temperature rise. To estimate this change, it is typically crucial to forecast the temperature in the future. The Earth's average temperature is determined by a multi-step and complex process that uses statistical techniques and data from various sources. By collecting and summarizing data, this paper mainly focuses on analyzing the trends in sea surface temperature over the past few hundred years. Through recent studies and case analysis, this paper highlights that the ocean has become an indispensable part of mitigating climate warming and stabilizing temperature. The significance of studying the impact of the ocean on temperature lies in its role as a climate regulator, providing scientific basis for global climate change and guidance for regional adaptation efforts. Because of its enormous heat capacity and thermal inertia, the ocean is an important component of the climate system and plays a buffering and regulating role in atmospheric temperature.

Multiscale Nonlinear Response of Extreme Meteorological–Hydrothermal Events in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River

ABSTRACTUnder the backdrop of climate warming, the outbreak of short‐term extreme heat events can easily lead to irreversible changes in aquatic ecosystems. Delving into their intrinsic driving mechanisms and nonlinear characteristics is key to preventing natural disasters. This study, focusing on the upper Yangtze River as the research area, constructs a joint copula function model to analyze the joint occurrence probability and return period of extreme meteorological heat events. Through the bivariate cross–wavelet transform method, the study explores the multiscale dynamic response relationships and phase characteristics of extreme meteorological–hydrothermal events in the upper Yangtze River. Furthermore, a joint multifractal model of nonlinear responses for extreme meteorological–hydrothermal events was established. The results indicate that extreme high‐heat meteorological events in the upper Yangtze River tend to occur more frequently and severely, with duration–kurtosis events likely to coincide within a 2‐year return period, as well as high‐intensity low‐frequency high‐heat duration–severity events occurring simultaneously. Overall, before 2005, extreme high‐hydrothermal events exhibited phase characteristics lagging behind meteorological changes, which then shifted from lag to lead. Under three scenarios of change, meteorological–hydrothermal events exhibit a clear nonlinear response relationship. Apart from duration, severity and kurtosis all show significant nonlinear relationships.