Abstract
We used semi-parametric Bayesian regression to determine whether ocean acidification or climate warming could explain declining productivity for southeast Bering Sea red king crab (Paralithodes camtchaticus). Negative effects of acidification explained ~21% of recruitment variability over 1980-2023, and ~45% since 2000. Ocean warming had a negligible effect in our analysis. Model-estimated annual mean bottom pH in the region has fallen from ~8.03 in 1980 to ~7.89 in 2023, approaching levels that reduce juvenile survival in laboratory studies. Improved model validation and better understanding of potential threshold effects on red king crab are needed to better understand the possible population-level acidification effect that we demonstrate.
Published Version
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