Climate Warming Research Articles

Soil properties constrain forest understory plant distributions along an elevation gradient.

Projections of spatial biodiversity dynamics under climate warming are often based on models including only climate variables, and when non-climatic factors (e.g. soil) are included, data are often at much coarser spatial resolutions than those experienced by plants. Field studies along elevation gradients permit the gathering of detailed soil data, while still covering a wide climatic gradient. Here, an intensive field survey of four spring forest herbs along an elevation gradient showed that soil properties had substantial impacts on the occurrence/abundance of all species, and that soil effects were more pronounced at higher elevations. For Trillium erectum and Claytonia caroliniana, very infrequent occurrences at high elevation were strongly associated with rare microsites with high pH or nutrients. In a seven-year transplant experiment with T. erectum, we found that individuals grew to much smaller sizes at high than low elevation, suggesting that environmental factors rather than dispersal limitation constrain the species' upper range limit, despite substantial warming in recent decades. Our study demonstrates that soil factors interact strongly with climate to determine plant range limits along climatic gradients. Unsuitable soils for plants at high elevations or latitudes may represent an important constraint on future plant migration and biodiversity change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Contrasting water use strategies to climate warming in white birch and larch in a boreal permafrost region.

The effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ca) with climate warming on intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) and radial growth in boreal forests are still poorly understood. We measured tree-ring cellulose δ13C, δ18O, and tree-ring width in Larix dahurica (larch) and Betula platyphylla (white birch), and analyzed their relationships with climate variables in a boreal permafrost region of northeast China over past 68years covering a pre-warming period (1951-1984; base period) and a warm period (1985-2018; warm period). We found that white birch but not larch significantly increased their radial growth over the warm period. The increased iWUE in both species was mainly driven by elevated Ca but not climate warming. White birch but not larch showed significantly positive correlations between tree-ring δ13C, δ18O and summer maximum temperature as well as vapor pressure deficit in the warm period, suggesting a strong stomatal response in the broad-leaved birch to temperature changes. The climate warming-induced radial growth enhancement in white birch is primarily associated with a conservative water use strategy. In contrast, larch exhibits a profligate water use strategy. It implies an advantage for white birch over larch in the warming permafrost regions.

Nocturnal heat exposure and stroke risk.

In recent decades, nighttime temperatures have increased faster than daytime temperatures. The increasing prevalence of nocturnal heat exposure may pose a significant risk to cardiovascular health. This study investigated the association between nighttime heat exposure and stroke risk in the region of Augsburg, Germany, and examined its temporal variations over 15 years. Hourly meteorological parameters, including mean temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure, were acquired from a local meteorological station. A data set was obtained consisting of 11 037 clinical stroke cases diagnosed during warmer months (May to October) between the years 2006 and 2020. The average age of cases was 71.3 years. Among these cases, 642 were identified as haemorrhagic strokes, 7430 were classified as ischaemic strokes, and 2947 were transient ischaemic attacks. A time-stratified case-crossover analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the stroke risk associated with extreme nighttime heat, as measured by the hot night excess (HNE) index after controlling for the potential confounding effects of daily maximum temperature and other climatic variables. Subgroup analyses by age group, sex, stroke subtype, and stroke severity were performed to identify variations in susceptibility to nighttime heat. Results suggested a significant increase in stroke risk on days with extreme nighttime heat (97.5% percentile of HNE) (odds ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.15) during the full study period. When comparing the results for 2013-20 with the results for 2006-12, there was a significant increase (P < .05) in HNE-related risk for all strokes and specifically for ischaemic strokes during the more recent period. Furthermore, older individuals, females, and patients with mild stroke symptoms exhibited a significantly increased vulnerability to nighttime heat. This study found nocturnal heat exposure to be related to elevated stroke risk after controlling for maximum daytime temperature, with increasing susceptibility between 2006 and 2020. These results underscore the importance of considering nocturnal heat as a critical trigger of stroke events in a warming climate.

Soil fungal community has higher network stability than bacterial community in response to warming and nitrogen addition in a subtropical primary forest.

Soil microbes play a very important role in maintaining the function and health of forest ecosystems. Unfortunately, global change factors are profoundly affecting soil microbial structure and function. In this study, we found that climate warming promoted bacterial network stability and nitrogen deposition decreased bacterial network stability. Changes in bacterial network stability had strong effects on bacterial community functional potentials linked to metabolism, nitrogen cycling, and carbon cycling, which would change the biogeochemical cycle in primary forests.

Soil warming effects on the transpiration of trees and shrubs in a subtropical secondary forest: A manipulative experiment

The climate warming can increase the productivity of some species while decrease that of others, therefore, knowledge of species-specific responses to warming is helpful to understand the possible trajectory of forest ecosystems. Despite the importance of the subtropical secondary broadleaf forests developed from afforestation in South China, our understanding of how the transpiration of trees and shrubs co-growing in these forests responds to soil warming is limited. To explore the effects of soil warming on transpiration and associated ecophysiological traits of trees and shrubs in wet and dry seasons, as well as to clarify respective contributions of trees and shrubs transpiration to the stand total, we conducted a manipulative experiment of soil warming (+2 ℃, WA) and control (CK) in a subtropical secondary broadleaf forest in South China, and continuously monitored the transpiration (based on sap flow) of trees, Schima superba and Acacia auriculiformis, and that (derived from leaf temperature and microclimate) of shrubs, Psychotria asiatica and Castanopsis chinensis, from 2021 to 2022. We also measured leaf water potentials, leaf nutrient status, and δ13C-derived intrinsic water use efficiency (WUEi). Soil warming did not significantly alter the transpiration of trees, with the exception of A. auriculiformis in 2022, whereas it notably increased transpiration of both shrubs. We attributed the stimulation of shrubs’ transpiration mainly to the more favorable leaf water potentials under warming condition. Due to the increased transpiration, the contribution of shrubs to stand transpiration was consequently increased, highlighting the potential role of shrubs in the hydrological dynamics of forest ecosystems. Additionally, the WUEi, soil main macro-nutrients, and leaf nutritional status of all species were not significantly affected by soil warming. These findings indicated that the carbon-water exchange and nutrient status of the studied plants can be maintained even when exposed to moderate increases in soil temperature and relatively drier condition, reflecting the resilience of the subtropical secondary broadleaf forest to possible climate warming. Further research on the interaction and competition of co-existing trees and shrubs under soil warming will improve the prediction of forest dynamics under future climate change, which benefits the efforts to conserve such forests in order to address the environmental pressure in the region.

Intensified surface chlorophyll responses to the Indian ocean dipole under greenhouse warming

Abstract The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has been proposed to be a key driver of biological processes in the Indian Ocean (IO) in the present climate. Given the expected influence of global warming on both the properties of the IOD and the biogeochemistry within the IO, a key question arises: How will the relationship between the IOD and surface chlorophyll evolve in a warming climate? Here, utilizing simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 Earth System models, our findings reveal a notable intensification in the IOD-chlorophyll relationship under greenhouse warming. This intensification is linked to an increase in surface chlorophyll during the June to November period of positive IOD years in the southeastern IO (SEIO). Interestingly, our analysis indicates a substantial rise in IOD-related chlorophyll levels in a warming climate, despite a marked decrease in IOD-induced upwelling in the SEIO. The shallower thermocline leads to an increase in the mean nutrient concentration in the subsurface layer, thereby facilitating an enhanced anomalous nutrient supply to the surface layer, which contributes to increased surface chlorophyll. Our study highlights the consequential effects of IOD on chlorophyll dynamics and underscores the need for improved coupled models to advance our understanding of biophysical interactions in the IO in response to global warming.

Predictions of locations of flash point and calcite scaling of geothermal fluids in wellbore by chemical and thermodynamic simulations

Geothermal energy, as a renewable energy source, has been intensively developed recently because its utilization can reduce CO2 emission, climate warming and sea level rising, and be beneficial to promote sustainable development. However, scaling in the wellbores often happens during the rising of geothermal fluids. At present, the methods to explore the scaling location principally focus on real measurement techniques and numerical simulation method. In comparison with the former, the latter is extremely time- and labor-saving to predict the scaling location based on the coupling model. In this study, the flash point and scaling locations of two geothermal wells in Hebei province are numerically simulated via ECO2N equation of state module in TOUGHREACT software, and the factors affecting the flash point and scaling locations of geothermal wells are explored. At the same time, the mechanism of geothermal fluid flash is analyzed. The prediction results show that the relative errors of scaling locations in geothermal well I and II are 5.43 % and 6.82 % compared to the field measured data; the pressure and temperature of geothermal fluids at well bottom can be calculated based on the related parameters of wellhead fluid; the locations of flash point and scaling can be determined according to the sudden increases of CO2 partial pressure and scaling amount, respectively. Furthermore, the liquid mass flow rate, CO2 mass flow rate and wellbore diameter have prominent influence on the locations of flash point and scaling, while wellbore diameter have significant effect on the amount of calcite scaling. The above conclusions provide useful guidelines for the next scaling removal and control in the production wellbore during the utilization of the geothermal energy.

Permafrost thermal dynamics at a local scale in northern Da Xing’anling Mountains

Permafrost in Northeastern China is not only controlled by latitude and elevation, but also locally environmental factors, such as vegetation cover and human activities. During 2009–2022, thinning active layer, increasing annual maximum frost depth in talik zones and lowering ground temperature above the depth of dividing point (DDP) between permafrost cooling and warming have been observed in many places, possibly due to the global warming hiatus (GWH). However, the responses of permafrost below DDP did not show a clear trend to the GWH, despite an evident ground warming. The warming and degradation of permafrost below DDP in the Da Xing’anling Mountains are more strongly influenced by the overall climate warming than by regional GWH. This study improves our understanding of changing permafrost temperature and its drivers. It also helps to provide data support and references for the management of the ecological and hydrological environment of the northern Da Xing’anling Mountains and the Heilongjiang-Amur River Basin.

Impact of environmental temperature on the survival outcomes of breast cancer: A SEER-based study.

Experimental evidence in tumor-bearing mouse models shows that exposure to cool, that is, sub-thermoneutral environmental temperature is associated with a higher tumor growth rate and an immunosuppressive tumor immune microenvironment than seen at thermoneutral temperatures. However, the translational significance of these findings in humans is unclear. We hypothesized that breast cancer patients living in warmer climates will have better survival outcomes than patients living in colder climates. A retrospective population-based analysis was conducted on 270,496 stage I-III breast cancer patients, who were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) over the period from 1996 to 2017. The average annual temperature (AAT) was calculated based on city level data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. A total of 270, 496 patients were analyzed. Temperature as assessed in quartiles. After adjusting for potential confounders, patients who lived in the 3rd and 4th quartile temperature regions with AAT 56.7-62.5°F (3rd quartile) and > 62.5°F (4th quartile) had a 7% increase in the OS compared to patients living at AAT < 48.5°F (1st quartile) (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.90-0.95 and HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.91-0.96, respectively). For DSS, When comparing AAT quartiles, patients living with AAT in the range of 56.7-62.5°F and > 62.5°F demonstrated a 7% increase each in DSS after adjustment (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.90-0.96 and HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.90-0.96). Higher environmental temperatures are associated with significantly better OS and DSS in breast cancer patients. Future research is warranted to confirm this observation using large datasets to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and investigate novel therapeutic strategies to minimize this geographic disparity in clinical outcomes.

Viability of an Open-Loop Heat Pump Drying System in South African Climatic Conditions

Drying agricultural produce consumes a considerable amount of energy. As an energy-efficient system, a heat pump can improve the energy efficiency of the drying process and hence reduce the energy consumption, especially in South Africa, where both sub-tropical and temperate weather conditions dominate. The objective of this research is to experimentally investigate the impacts of weather conditions on the operational conditions and thermal performance of an open-loop air-source heat pump drying system. The experimental investigation was conducted in a climate chamber where the climate conditions were simulated from −10 °C to 20 °C with an interval of 10 °C for the typical temperature range of the harvesting season in South Africa. The findings indicate that ambient temperatures have a significant impact on both the operating conditions and thermal performance of an open-loop heat pump system; the change in ambient temperatures from −10 °C to 20 °C leads to a 141.6% improvement in the suction pressure, a 214.2% increase in the discharge pressure, and 30.1% increase in the compression ratio, as well as a consequent increase of 130.6% in the refrigerant mass flow rate (from 0.0067 to 0.0155 kg/s), resulting in a corresponding increase in the coefficient of performance (COP) of the heat pump drying system by about 42.1%. Therefore, this study suggests that, while using an open-loop air-source heat pump drying system utilising R134a refrigerant is feasible in South Africa, it may be practically limited to regions with warm climates or during warmer seasons.

A case report of female vaginal myiasis

Introduction and importance: Myiasis, a rare affliction, is distinguished by the infestation of human organs by larvae of the Diptera species. Although myiasis is commonly observed in the skin, eyes, ears, and nasopharynx, the occurrence of human genital myiasis is infrequent. Instances of vulvar and prolapsed uterus myiasis have been previously documented. Case presentation: In this study, we present a case of vaginal myiasis in a young female residing in the warm and humid climate of south China. The treatment approach involved manual extraction of the maggots and vaginal irrigation with a 0.01% potassium permanganate solution for 7 days. As one month followed up, she was cured and then change residence, the vaginal myiasis was not recurrence. Clinical Discussion: In reported myiasis cases, mechanical extraction of maggots, debridement of necrotic tissue, and irrigation with antiseptic solutions, such as 1% ivermectin solution in propylene glycol were the treatment of myiasis. In this case, a low-concentration solution of potassium permanganate, serving as an oxidizing agent, was utilized as a vaginal douching agent, and had a good effect. Conclusion Vaginal: Infestation of maggots likely occurred due to unsanitary intercourse in a suitable environment, removal of maggots and vaginal irrigation with low concentration solution of potassium permanganate may be an effective therapy.

Intraspecific variation in thermal performance curves for early development in Fundulus heteroclitus.

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) provide a framework for understanding the effects of temperature on ectotherm performance and fitness. TPCs are often used to test hypotheses regarding local adaptation to temperature or to develop predictions for how organisms will respond to climate warming. However, for aquatic organisms such as fishes, most TPCs have been estimated for adult life stages, and little is known about the shape of TPCs or the potential for thermal adaptation at sensitive embryonic life stages. To examine how latitudinal gradients shape TPCs at early life stages in fishes, we used two populations of Fundulus heteroclitus that have been shown to exhibit latitudinal variation along the thermal cline as adults. We exposed embryos from both northern and southern populations and their reciprocal crosses to eight different temperatures (15°C, 18°C, 21°C, 24°C, 27°C, 30°C, 33°C, and 36°C) until hatch and examined the effects of developmental temperature on embryonic and larval traits (shape of TPCs, heart rate, and body size). We found that the pure southern embryos had a right-shifted TPC (higher thermal optimum (Topt) for developmental rate, survival, and embryonic growth rate) whereas pure northern embryos had a vertically shifted TPC (higher maximum performance (Pmax) for developmental rate). Differences across larval traits and cross-type were also found, such that northern crosses hatched faster and hatched at a smaller size compared to the pure southern population. Overall, these observed differences in embryonic and larval traits are consistent with patterns of both local adaptation and countergradient variation.

A multi‐scenario analysis of climate impacts on plankton and fish stocks in northern seas

AbstractGlobally, impacts of climate change display an increasingly negative development of marine biomass, but there is large regional variability. In this analysis of future climate change on stock productivity proxies for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea, we have provided calculations of accumulated directional effects as a function of climate exposure and sensitivity attributes. Based on modelled changes in physical and biogeochemical variables from three scenarios and knowledge of 13 different stocks' habitats and response to climate variations, climate exposures have been weighted, and corresponding directions these have on the stocks have been decided. SSP1‐2.6 gives mostly a weak cooling in all regions with almost negligible impacts on all stocks. SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 both provide warmer conditions in the long term but are significantly different in the last 30 years of the century when the SSP5‐8.5 warming is much stronger. The results show that it is the current stocks of cod and Calanus finmarchicusin the North Sea, and polar cod and capelin in the Barents Sea that will be most negatively affected by strong warming. Stocks that can migrate north into the northern seas such as hake in the Norwegian Sea, or stocks that are near the middle of the preferred temperature range such as mackerel and herring in the Norwegian Sea and cod and Calanus finmarchicus in the Barents Sea, are the winners in a warmer climate. The highly different impacts between the three scenarios show that multiple scenario studies of this kind matter.

Intraspecific variation in the functional response of an invasive crayfish under different temperatures

Non-native species can react to changes to their thermal environment by altering their feeding behaviour, thereby potentially causing shifts in predator-prey dynamics and competitive dominance over native species. In this study, we measured intraspecific variation in the functional response (i.e., predation rate as a function of prey density) of the rusty crayfish Faxonius rusticus (Girard, 1852) at two temperatures (18˚C and 26˚C) in the laboratory. We compared six invasive populations spanning a 2˚ latitudinal gradient in eastern North America, to test the prediction that under warmer conditions individuals from more southerly populations exhibit a higher functional response than those from northern populations. Temperature, latitude, and the interaction between these two variables had significant effects on attack rates and handling times of individual crayfish from the tested populations. Contrary to our prediction, the attack rates of individuals from northern populations were consistently higher than those from southern populations at both temperatures. We propose that these interpopulation differences in functional response could arise, at least in part, from countergradient selection. Our results suggest that climate warming promotes spatiotemporal variation in per capita effects across latitudinally distributed populations of aquatic invasive species.

Critical Threshold-Based Heat Damage Evolution Monitoring to Tea Plants with Remotely Sensed LST over Mainland China

Tea plants (Camellia sinensis (L.) Kuntze) are a cash crop that thrive under warm and moist conditions. However, tea plants are becoming increasingly vulnerable to heat damage (HD) during summer growing seasons due to global climate warming. Because China ranks first in the world in both harvested tea area and total tea production, monitoring and tracking HD to tea plants in a timely manner has become a significant and urgent task for scientists and tea producers in China. In this study, the spatiotemporal characteristics of HD evolution were analyzed, and a tracking method using HD LST-weighted geographical centroids was constructed based on HD pixels identified by the critical LST threshold and daytime MYD11A1 products over the major tea planting regions of mainland China from two typical HD years (2013 and 2022). Results showed that the average number of HD days in 2022 was five more than in 2013. Daily HD extent increased at a rate of 0.66% per day in 2022, which was faster than that in 2013 with a rate of 0.21% per day. In two typical HD years, the tea regions with the greatest HD extent were concentrated south of the Yangtze River (SYR), with average HD pixel ratios of greater than 50%, then north of the Yangtze River (NYR) and southwest China (SWC), with average HD pixel ratios of around 40%. The regions with the least HD extent were in South China (SC), where the HD ratios were less than 40%. The HD LST-weighted geographical centroid trajectories showed that HD to tea plants in 2013 initially moved from southwest to northeast, and then moved west. In 2022, HD moved from northeast to west and south. Daily HD centroids were mainly concentrated at the conjunction of SYR, SWC, and SC in 2013, and in northern SWC in 2022, where they were near to the centroid of the tea planting gardens. The findings in this study confirmed that monitoring HD evolution of tea plants over a large spatial extent based on reconstructed remotely sensed LST values and critical threshold was an effective method benefiting from available MODIS LST products. Moreover, this method can identify and track the spatial distribution characteristics of HD to tea plants in a timely manner, and it will therefore be helpful for taking effective preventative measures to mitigate economic losses resulting from HD.

Deforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in Amazonian lizards

AbstractAimThe impact of climate change on biodiversity is often analysed under a stable evolutionary perspective focused on whether species can currently tolerate warmer climates. However, species may adapt to changes, and particularly under conditions of low habitat fragmentation, standing adaptive genetic variation can spread across populations tracking changing climates, increasing the potential for evolutionary rescue. Here, our aim is to integrate genomic data, niche modelling and landscape ecology to predict range shifts and the potential for evolutionary rescue.LocationThe megadiverse Amazonian rainforest.MethodsWe use genome–environment association analyses to search for candidate loci under environmental selection, while accounting for neutral genetic variation in a widespread Amazonian whiptail lizard (Teiidae: Kentropyx calcarata). We then model the distribution of individuals with genotypes adapted to different climate conditions. We predict range shifts for each genotype in distinct future climate change scenarios by integrating this information with dispersal constraints based on predicted scenarios of forest cover across Amazonia. The predicted ranges of each genotype were then overlapped to infer the potential for evolutionary rescue.ResultsWe find that the potential for evolutionary rescue and, therefore, a smaller degree of range loss buffering extinction risk in the future is considerably high, provided that current forest cover is retained and climate change is not extreme. However, under extreme environmental change scenarios, range loss will be high in central and southern Amazonia, irrespective of the degree of deforestation.Main ConclusionsOur results suggest that protecting the Amazonian rainforest against further deforestation and mitigating climate change to moderate scenarios until 2070 could foster evolutionary rescue of ectothermic organisms. These actions could prevent substantial biodiversity loss in Amazonia, emphasizing the importance of understanding species adaptability in maintaining biodiversity.

Timing and pattern of the Devonian Nehden event: Implication for the biotic recovery following the F–F extinction event

The biotic recovery process following the Frasnian–Famennian (F–F) mass extinction played an important role in reestablishing the late Palaeozoic marine ecosystem. The Nehden event is assumed as the global biotic recovery process in the aftermath of the F–F mass extinction, but the timing and pattern of this event is still in dispute due to lack of consistent geological records. In order to recognize the Nehden event and elucidate its timing and pattern, a newly refined conodont biostratigraphic framework spanning the Palmatolepis minuta minuta Zone to the Pa. rhomboidea Zone (370.8–367 Ma) has been established in the Yangdi section, Guangxi, South China. Based on a detailed analysis of microfacies and carbon isotope of carbonates (δ13Ccarb), the start of the Nehden event has been placed at the upper part of the Pa. m. minuta Zone, marked by deposition of calcareous shales and proliferation of palmatolepid conodonts and ostracods. Two episodes of the Nehden event are recognized in this study according to integrated palaeontological, sedimentological, and geochemical data from South China and other continents. The first phase of the Nehden event is assigned at the upper part of the Pa. m. minuta Zone, characterized by radiation of conodonts, ostracods, and brachiopods, which is coincident with the minimum value of negative δ13Ccarb excursion and climate warming. The second phase is placed at the Pa. termini to Pa. glabra pectinata zones, documented by biodiversification of cheiloceratid ammonoids and phacopid trilobites, which is concurrent with climate warming and the maximum transgression during the early Famennian. The extensive development of microbial bindstone in the lower Famennian succession at Yangdi demonstrates that microbial communities occupied the vacant ecological niches left behind by metazoans after the F–F biotic crisis. The expansion of ecological niches of microbial communities and depauperation of metazoan reefs implies the bioconstructor turnover from metazoan to microbial communities following the F–F extinction. The time equivalence of biotic radiation, climate change and sea-level fluctuation in two episodes of the Nehden event indicates the early Famennian biotic recovery was favored by climate warming and transgression. The results in this study not only offer important data to constrain the timing of the Nehden event, but also provide an insight on the process of biotic recovery following the F–F mass extinction event.

Plant height as an indicator for alpine carbon sequestration and ecosystem response to warming.

Growing evidence indicates that plant community structure and traits have changed under climate warming, especially in cold or high-elevation regions. However, the impact of these warming-induced changes on ecosystem carbon sequestration remains unclear. Using a warming experiment on the high-elevation Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, we found that warming not only increased plant species height but also altered species composition, collectively resulting in a taller plant community associated with increased net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Along a 1,500 km transect on the Plateau, taller plant community promoted NEP and soil carbon through associated chlorophyll content and other photosynthetic traits at the community level. Overall, plant community height as a dominant trait is associated with species composition and regulates ecosystem C sequestration in the high-elevation biome. This trait-based association provides new insights into predicting the direction, magnitude and sensitivity of ecosystem C fluxes in response to climate warming.

A “trapezoidal” relationship between solar radiation and chlorophyll concentrations at the center of the South Pacific Gyre

Understanding the driving mechanism of phytoplankton dynamics is key to forecasting future changes in the ocean. Here, we report an apparent “trapezoidal” relationship between chlorophyll concentrations (Chl) and surface photosynthetically available radiation (PAR(0)) at the center of the South Pacific Gyre (cSPG) based on 18 years of MODIS Aqua measurements. A comparison of Chl with a photoacclimation model revealed that photoacclimation alone could not explain the temporal dynamics of Chl. Instead, the Chl dynamics were explained by a combination of photoacclimation, nutrient limitation, and the grazing pressure of zooplankton at different times throughout the year. An annual “trapezoidal” spiral relationship between Chl and PAR(0) suggested that the steady state of phytoplankton populations at the cSPG could be influenced by the alternation of co-regulation mechanisms during a year. Because this same pattern occurs in other subtropical gyres, this understanding of the underlying mechanisms not only facilitates simulating and forecasting phytoplankton dynamics but also provides a new perspective on how multiple stressors may impact phytoplankton communities in a warmer climate.

A large-scale high-resolution numerical model for sea-ice fragmentation dynamics

Abstract. Forecasts of sea-ice motion and fragmentation are of vital importance for all human interactions with sea ice, ranging from those involving indigenous hunters to shipping in polar regions. Sea-ice models are also important for simulating long-term changes in a warming climate. Here, we apply the Helsinki Discrete Element Model (HiDEM), originally developed for glacier calving, to sea-ice breakup and dynamics. The code is highly optimized to utilize high-end supercomputers to achieve an extreme time and space resolution. Simulated fracture patterns and ice motion are compared with satellite images of the Kvarken region of the Baltic Sea from March 2018. A second application of HiDEM involves ice ridge formation in the Gulf of Riga. With a few tens of graphics processing units (GPUs), the code is capable of reproducing observed ice patterns that in nature may take a few days to form; this is done over an area of ∼100km×100km, with an 8 m resolution, in computations lasting ∼10 h. The simulations largely reproduce observed fracture patterns, ice motion, fast-ice regions, floe size distributions, and ridge patterns. The similarities and differences between observed and computed ice dynamics and their relation to initial conditions, boundary conditions, and applied driving forces are discussed in detail. The results reported here indicate that the HiDEM has the potential to be developed into a detailed high-resolution model for sea-ice dynamics at short timescales, which, when combined with large-scale and long-term continuum models, may form an efficient framework for forecasts of sea-ice dynamics.