Climate Debate Research Articles

The price of risk in residential solar investments

Households are key actors in decarbonizing our economy, especially when it comes to investments in a decentralized energy system, such as solar photovoltaics (PV). The phasing-out of feed-in tariffs, and unexpected policy changes in the wake of an increasingly polarized climate debate, require residential PV investors to bear new risks. Conducting a discrete choice experiment coupled with a randomized informational treatment among potential residential solar investors in Switzerland, we test whether policy and market risks deter households from investing in solar. We find that salient policy risk reduces households' intention to invest in solar, especially for risk-averse individuals. Conversely, households seem less sensitive to market risk: residential solar investors accept volatile revenues, as long as a price floor for excess electricity sold to the grid is guaranteed. Our study suggests that keeping perceived policy uncertainty low is more important for residential solar investors than fully hedging against electricity market risk.

Great Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize): A continuous, annually-resolved record of Common Era sea surface temperature, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and cyclone-controlled run-off

The Holocene (<11.7 kyr BP) is characterized by several periods of distinct climate changes. Some of these climate variations had extensive effects on mankind and coincided with demises of extinct high civilizations. Annually-resolved climate reconstructions will certainly play an increasingly important role in public perception, when applying these past patterns to the recent climate debate. The future consequences of the ongoing climate crisis are still challenging to predict, due to the lack of comprehensive, annually-resolved and continuous sea-surface temperature (SST) data. Our 8.55 m long sediment core from the bottom of the Great Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize) provides an annually-resolved, continuous and unique south-western Caribbean climate record for the last 1885 years. The varved, “lake-like” sinkhole successions of marine carbonates encompass approximately the entire Common Era (0 CE-modern), a time window, which is key for studying climatic variations and their effects on human society. Our SST record is based on stable isotopes (δ18O) and molecular proxy applications (TEX86). Throughout the Common Era, oxygen isotopes (δ18O) and TEX86 data imply a general SST rise of 0.5 °C and 1.3 °C, respectively, within the south-western Caribbean. The modulation of SST within the Common Era time series likely operated on two different time levels: (1) Solar (e.g., “Gleissberg Cycles”) and volcanic activity triggered climate changes, which in turn induced responses of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Their changing mode of action has been identified as a likely origin of the primary, i.e., centennially scaled SST variability. We suspect long-term positive AMO and NAO modes as the primary key control mechanisms of the Dark Ages Cold and Medieval Warm Period SST patterns. ENSO mode modulation likely exerted primary control on regional SST variability during the Little Ice Age and the Modern Global Warming. (2) Our δ18O data further indicate a striking secondary control on multi-decadal time scales: δ18O variations occur with 32–64 years periodicity. This signal is clearly evidence of SST modulation controlled by AMO phase changes (50–70 years) over almost the entire Common Era. Our carbon isotope record (δ13C) exhibits two remarkable negative anomalies and a long-term up-core decreasing trend. The first excursion (drop of 0.5‰) occurred with the onset of the Medieval Warm Period, which is reconstructed to be a peak time in south-western Caribbean tropical cyclone (TC) activity. This overlap is stressing a potential context between TC activity, enhanced coastal run-off and increased soil-erosion reflected by 13C-depleted carbon isotopes. A second anomaly (>1900 CE) is more likely the result of the “Suess Effect” (anthropogenic impact of the Industrial Revolution on carbon isotopes composition) than another reflection of a TC peak activity interval.

Reformatie van de rentmeester. Een voorstel tot integratie van de zorg voor de schepping in gereformeerde theologie

Christians throughout the world feel the need to answer the questions arising from the climate debate. Orthodox-reformed theology in the Netherlands, however, pays these matters comparatively little attention. Three possible causes of this problem are: stewardship as discussed under the heading of creation; a certain slowness in consideration; and the suggestion that the Ten Commandments do not bear directly on this theme. This essay proposes a more integrated position. First, stewardship of the creation should be more closely linked to the image of God. Second, the Ten Commandments has the creation in view more often than assumed: ‘creation’ is also ‘your neighbour’. Third, in considering creation care as part of God’s ‘normal’ obligations towards us, the threefold function of the law must not be diminished.

Translating the global climate change challenge into action as reflected in Uganda’s media

Climate change is a global risk that has affected all countries, which requires both global and national action. From the domain of scientists, who initially dominated climate debates, climate change has now become a public issue, with politicians increasingly influencing decisions on climate action, thus climate change becoming a highly politicized media topic. Given that media focus on key issues in society, this article examines the positioning of climate change in Uganda’s media as a means of gauging the level of political commitment to translate this global challenge into climate action. Premised within the issue-attention conceptual framework and based on the findings from the analysis of print media coverage in Uganda of the COP21 global summit, the article shows that climate change is not just a local national issue but is inexplicably linked to global frameworks, where voices and actors from the North not only dominate the global climate discourse but also transcend to the national level as reflected in the coverage, with most of the climate news being from foreign sources and foreign political leaders. Journalists are urged to pre-empt the local politicians to be active participants, not passive listeners in the global climate debates, such that climate issues become high on Uganda’s political communication agenda.

Holocene vegetation changes according to sea-level and climate dynamics on tidal flats of the Formoso River estuary, northeastern Brazil

The aim of this work was to carry out a paleoenvironmental study of Holocene sedimentary deposits in the southern sector of Pernambuco's coast (northeastern Brazil). This work addresses an important aspect of Quaternary research that has implications for current climate debates, for instance, how does vegetation react to changing climate and rising sea levels. Thus, we provide a combined approach using sedimentological, palynological, geochemical analyses (stable isotopes i.e., δ13C, δ15N and C:N), in addition to AMS 14C dating from two surficial sediment cores i.e. T4 (up to 150 cm depth) and T5 (up to 136 cm depth) collected from the Formoso River estuarine system. Climatic oscillations show variation in precipitation and atmosphere humidity, marked by areas of expansion and/or retraction of herbaceous plain and forest vegetation. Variations in vegetation composition over the last 7168–7260 cal yr BP in the Formoso River estuary reflects the strong influence of sea-level variations, which were responsible for changes in coastal paleogeography and paleogeomorphology. Changes in vegetation composition indicate its close relationship with transgressive and regressive marine events and corresponding variation of the depositional environment like lakes to coastal lagoons, tidal channels, sandy strand-plain, and the modern estuary of the Formoso River.

Feminist geographies of climate change: Negotiating gender at climate talks

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time and will have differential impacts across different geographies and social strata. The Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the most important international meeting surrounding climate change. The 2015 Paris climate talks reflected the global preoccupation around climate change, in that it was the first time 150 Heads of State ever gathered to discuss an issue. For geographers, the COPs are important sites to study because decisions around our environmental commons can perpetuate or contest socio-environmental narratives responsible for social and environmental inequalities. Increasingly, gender is being introduced into the climate debate in sites such as the COPs. Using qualitative methods, this paper delineates the mechanisms by which some meanings of gender like gender balance dominate over others like gender equality. My research illustrates how discourses of gender and climate change arise, are perpetuated, and materialized through climate policy. I use an intersectional lens to underscore the practices that perpetuate injustices, and explore the discourses that are the most popular at the COPs around gender and climate change, who perpetuates them, which narratives are mobilized, and which become invisible. I highlight how material practices at the COPs that construct polarized divisions of gender are accompanied by polarized divisions of space. Feminist geographies of climate change can challenge the global conversation about gender and climate change to form new coalitions and techniques to find just and equitable outcomes in the face of climate change.

Africa’s Initiatives In and Responses to Climate Debates and Processes : Nigerian Experience

Africa’s Initiatives In and Responses to Climate Debates and Processes : Nigerian Experience

The climate brokers: philanthropy and the shaping of a ‘US-compatible’ international climate regime

Philanthropic foundations are a mainstay of the international climate debate, and yet they are surprisingly absent from the mainstream academic literature. This article attempts to fill this gap by exploring how philanthropic foundations, through their grantmaking, field-building and convening efforts, sought to shape and orientate the international climate regime. In particular, we show how foundations have historically worked to incorporate US positions into the international climate process. While the foundations and strategies have changed over time, foundations have unfailingly worked to bridge the divide between the US and the international climate policy field.

Public support for aviation policy measures in Sweden

ABSTRACT Air travel has received increasing attention in the climate debate in recent years. Current climate policy in this sector remains weak in comparison to, for example, the road transport sector. In this study, we analyze public support for seven different national policy measures that have been chosen to reflect the main thinking raised in the debate. Using original data from Sweden (N = 4500), we found that less coercive measures, as well as regulatory measures targeting the aviation industry rather than individuals directly, are more readily supported by the public than market-based policies aiming to push individuals away from air travel. The analyses of the different policy measures reveal many similarities between them. Climate concern, a personal norm to act in a more climate-friendly way, a political orientation to the left and high levels of institutional trust all display strong associations with support for all the different policy types. Perceptions of fairness, in particular, and effectiveness were strongly associated with overall policy support. Interestingly, however, the extent to which a policy measure was expected to affect one’s own personal freedom was found to have a very weak correlation with policy support. Key policy insights Public support was higher for ‘pull’ policies (climate labelling and subsidies for high-speed and night trains), as well as for regulatory measures targeting the aviation industry (biofuel blending mandate), than for policies that aim to push individuals away from air travel (e.g. air passenger tax). The weakest public support was found for frequent flyer taxation and personal carbon allowances. One reason, however, may be that these are novel policy options where the respondents had little prior information. In line with previous research, climate concern, ideology and trust in institutions correlate with attitudes to aviation polices, but the multivariate model showed that perceptions of whether a policy is fair and effective were by far the most important variables. Hence, fairness and effectiveness appear to be crucial aspects for the design of new policies.

Back to the basic: toward improvement of technoeconomic representation in integrated assessment models

With the shift of climate debate from understanding to actions, the use of integrated assessment models (IAMs) is gradually expanding. Since IAMs produce least-cost pathways, technoeconomic parameters constitute one of the basic parameters. Traditionally, IAMs dealt with technologies with slowly-changing, relatively homogeneous manner. Since technologies are rapidly evolving, and the pattern of technological development is regionally heterogeneous, the IAM community must embrace a new strategy to treat their underlying technoeconomic parameters. Here we illustrate such challenges by reviewing the treatment and performance of IAMs with respect to some of the rapidly changing technologies (e.g., solar, wind, and batteries). Our review shows that IAMs have difficulty in updating the cost of the rapidly changing technologies. We then articulate a new strategy, drawing upon the lesson from the current model intercomparison projects and climate sciences. We argue that a loose network of modeling groups across the globe should create a database of technological parameters in a standardized format and standard evaluation tool, perhaps to be facilitated by the IAM Consortium. Such a framework would contribute to the review of the progress toward the Paris Agreement goals.

Adaptation and Mitigation amid the Consequences of Failure

AbstractSocieties once could choose between changing direction or dealing with climatic disaster; now it is necessary to do both at once. The best‐laid plans for mitigation would be hard enough to fulfill in a stable climate, but they will be vastly harder in the climate chaos ahead. If simultaneous mitigation and adaptation are still achievable, such a difficult balance cannot also take on the burden of supporting unrestrained economic growth. The failing efforts so far have been dominated by a search for synergistic ways to mitigate, adapt, and grow economies at the same time, while wishing away the predictable trade‐offs between these goals. Wealthy polluting countries have enforced this optimistic spirit in international climate debates, in part to counter the language of loss and damage, which they have seen as a direct challenge. Key to their effort has been a reframing of adaptation that flips the focus from the vulnerability of exposed populations to their resilience. However, the reality of implementing plans for resilience is running into problems, and those populations are instead taking up the banner of climate justice. Debt‐ and disaster‐plagued Puerto Rico illustrates the failure of both adaptation and mitigation through growth and the promise of climate justice as a means to articulate other forms of balance.

Threat and Anxiety in the Climate Debate—An Agent-Based Model to Investigate Climate Scepticism and Pro-Environmental Behaviour

In order to meet the challenges of sustainable development, it is of utmost importance to involve all relevant decision makers in this process. These decision makers are diverse, including governments, corporations and private citizens. Since the latter group is the largest and the majority of decisions relevant to the future of the environment is made by that group, great effort has been put into communicating relevant research results to them. The hope is that well-informed citizens make well-informed choices and thus act in a sustainable way. However, this common but drastic simplification that more information about climate change automatically leads to pro-environmental behaviour is fundamentally flawed. It completely neglects the complex social-psychological processes that occur if people are confronted with threatening information. In reality, the defence mechanisms that are activated in such situations can also work against the goal of sustainable development, as experimental studies showed. Based on these findings, we propose an agent-based model to understand the relation between threatening climate change information, anxiety, climate change scepticism, environmental self-identity and pro-environmental behaviour. We find that the exposure to information about climate change, in general, does not increase the pro-environmental intent unless several conditions regarding the individual’s values and information density are met.

Flying Green from a Carbon Neutral Airport: The Case of Brussels

The aviation sector is one of the fastest growing emitters of greenhouse gases worldwide. In addition, airports have important local environmental impacts, mainly in the form of noise pollution and deterioration in air quality. Although noise nuisance in the vicinity of airports is recognized as an important problem of the urban environment which is often addressed by regulation, other environmental problems associated with aviation are less widely acknowledged. In the climate debate, the importance of which is rising, aviation has remained under the radar for decades. In the present paper, we use the case of Brussels Airport (Belgium) to demonstrate that the local perception of air travel-related environmental problems may be heavily influenced by the communication strategy of the airport company in question. Basing our analysis on publicly available data, communication initiatives, media reports, and policy documents, we find that (1) the noise impact of aviation is recognized and mainly described in an institutionalized format, (2) the impact of aviation on local air quality is ignored, and (3) the communication on climate impact shows little correspondence or concern with the actual effects. These findings are relevant for other airports and sectors, since the type of environmental communication produced by airport companies can also be observed elsewhere.

Public communication by climate scientists: what, with whom and why?

Public communication of science has increasingly been recognised as a responsibility of scientists (Leshner, Science p. 977, 2003). Climate scientists are often reminded of their responsibility to participate in the public climate debate and to engage the public in meaningful conversations that contribute to policy-making (Fischhoff 2013). However, our understanding about climate scientists’ interactions with the public and the factors that drive or inhibit them is at best limited. In a new study, we show that it is the most published and not necessarily the most senior, which often talk in public, and it is primarily intrinsic motivation (as opposed to extrinsic reward), which drive them to engage in public communication. Political orientations, academic productivity and awareness of controversy, the topic raises in the public domain, were also important determinants of a climate’s scientist public activity. Future research should explore what is required to protect the intrinsic motivation of scientists.

A Methodological Framework for Developing More Just Footprints: The Contribution of Footprints to Environmental Policies and Justice

The rapid growth of human population and associated industrialisation creates strains on resources and climate. One way to understand the impact of human activity is to quantify the total environmental pressures by measuring the ‘footprint’. Footprints account for the total direct and/or indirect effects of a product or a consumption activity, which may be related to e.g. carbon, water or land use, and can be seen as a proxy for environmental responsibility. Footprints shape climate and resource debates, especially concerning environmental strategies. However, in general, footprints hold a dichotomous producer–consumer perspective that is not unanimously accepted. In addition, the current footprinting system transmits a simplistic message about environmental responsibility that taints the justice debate and jeopardises the validity of policies based on them. Consequently, it is crucial to question who is (and should be) accountable for adverse environmental effects. It is also critical to investigate how the methodological characteristics of footprints shape and affect the efficacy of policies on climate and natural resources. This article examines these challenges, focusing on negative justice and policy implications resulting from assigning environmental responsibility to a sole agent. The article proposes, and morally justifies, the development of a footprinting method that includes justice parameters in an attempt to render fair results that are more meaningful for environmental action. The second objective is to establish the potential of this new framework to promote environmental responsibility and justice while facilitating policymaking. The suggested justice elements aim at turning footprints into a concrete environmental policy instrument framed under the value of environmental fairness.

From polarization to reluctant acceptance–bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and the post-normalization of the climate debate

ABSTRACTThe paper covers the public debate on BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) between 2008 and 2018. Through a qualitative analysis of around 800 feature articles, editorials, and opinion pieces published in English, German, Swedish, Danish, and Norwegian in news media and debates sections of scientific media, we highlight conspicuous aspects of the debate and relate them to the theoretical concept of post-normal science. We find that the debate is characterized by an emphasis on values, scientific uncertainty and the integrity of science, premised on a pervading sense of urgency. To a significant extent, the debate can be understood as a “normal” view of science questioning what it perceives to be unscientific model-based climate scenarios, and the scenarios, in turn, can be seen as a response to post-normal circumstances. The urgency permeating the debate provides conditions for open debate about ethical and epistemological uncertainty. The debate goes through a period of polarization – corroborating findings from previous studies on the climate science debate after COP21 – between an intense critique of BECCS inclusion in climate scenarios and reluctant acceptance thereof. Towards the end of the studied period, emphasis shifts towards reluctant acceptance, indicating that post-normal debate may only occur as a temporary state always tending towards new consensus.

Earth’s Magnetic Field—The Key to Global Warming

It is commonly known that the climate debate suffers due to a lack of knowledge about the cause and effect relationship between a number of climatic temperature variations that have occurred in history without being able to blame human emission of greenhouse gas in any way. Only when we are willing to give up the idea that there is a geodynamo deep inside of the Earth being responsible for the Earth’s magnetic field and when we get back to the idea that the origin of the magnetic field is simply ferromagnetic, will it be possible to establish two different cause and effect connections that are suitable to explain why there is an acknowledged coincidence between climatic temperature variations and an intensive, proportional variation in the strength of the Earth’s magnetic field. Such insight may easily prove to be decisive at a time when many people can no longer differentiate between politics, mass hysteria, presumptions and actual knowledge. When there are requirements that a solution to climatic temperature variations must contain the solution to the coincidence mentioned, two possible scenarios exist. The one possibility (although not very likely) that is suitable to solve the mysterious coincidence is that mainly the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean is heated from within (from the interior of the Earth) and that variations in the Earth’s emission of heat cause primarily all of Europe to have witnessed warm winters for decades. The one possible cause and effect connection may (in theory) be that inner heat in the Earth’s crust can loosen frozen, ferromagnetic structures, thereby drive the Earth’s ferromagnetic, magnetic field to restructure and be reorganised from periodically being a chaotic, magnetic field to periodically being a well-structured, ferromagnetic field. The connection between magnetism and thermal impact is already commonly known. The other and somewhat more likely cause and effect connection is building on Henrik Svensmark’s (and teams) theory that says that variations in the cosmic radiation reaching the Earth depend on the strength of the Sun’s magnetic field and that this radiation contributes to creating aerosols, thereby variations in the cloud formation. Solar storms contribute to temporarily strengthening the Earth’s magnetic field. The question is whether these contributions could also periodically have a long-term effect on the Earth’s magnetic field. In that case, this may explain the reason for the above-mentioned coincidence.

Balancing media environments: Design principles for digital learning in Danish upper secondary schools

Based on a case study on pupils at a Danish upper secondary school this paper reveals that the pupils’ media experiences in school are dominated by frustrations and feelings of ambiguity. Two pupil groups with different attitudes towards digital media were identified: one ‘IT positive’ group that call for more activating uses of digital media, and an ‘IT skeptic’ group that call for less experimentation and a return to traditional teaching methods and paper books. The case study reflects several ways in which new technologies challenges our educational system. This results in schools today generally being caught between practices of the literate, book-based environment, on the one hand, and the interactive, networked digital environment, on the other. The paper uses the concept of affordances to demonstrate how different media environments shape learning possibilities differently, and that any technology elicits desirable learning outcomes as well as undesirable learning outcomes — or challenges. Essentially, the educational system faces a fundamental challenge of balancing logics and principles of digital learning with traditional, paper-based learning. On this basis, a theoretical framework is developed that sets up didactical principles — distinguishing between affordances at individual, social and societal levels — for applying digital technologies in learning contexts. The paper concludes by demonstrating the principles through a learning design case concerning the climate debate.

Urbanization in the time of climate change: Examining the response of Indian cities

India's urban transition is salient to the growing emphasis on city responses to climate change. While projected to experience the largest global urban transition with significant infrastructure investment in the next few decades, the welfare of Indian cities remains poor, which complicates the implications for climate change mitigation and adaptation. This paper traces, synthesizes and characterizes the emerging literature on Indian urban climate debates. It discusses the arc of urban climate efforts, from an initial emphasis on climate vulnerabilities and risks, broadening over time to include climate mitigation. The paper examines the governance forms and political motivations with which such actions are pursued in cities and finds three overarching characteristics: the use of local development priorities as an entry point to climate mitigation and adaptation; the role of nonstate actors in promoting climate‐relevant outcomes; and the proclivity for discrete project‐based activities. The paper suggests that while a range of Indian cities are beginning to consider climate concerns, a larger strategic understanding of the interaction between climate and development priorities, across policy and governance levels, is yet to be developed. The future trajectory of urban India's responses to climate change will be shaped by the institutional prioritising, linking and integrating of urgent local development and mitigation and adaptation goals.This article is categorized under: Climate and Development &gt; Urbanization, Development, and Climate Change

Is increased precipitation during the 20th century statistically or ecologically significant in the eastern US?

ABSTRACTWe address the climate versus disturbance debate to understand drivers of change in human-environment systems. We examine whether recent increased precipitation episodes (‘pluvials’) are unique and have ecological implications for the humid climate of the eastern United States. Robust statistical analyzes presented here indicate that the 20th century was wet, but not significantly different than other centuries during the last millennium. Statistical methods did not establish increased precipitation episodes as an unusual change that correlated with transition shifts in eastern forests during the early 20th century. Additionally, modest precipitation change was not ecologically significant enough to result in forests composed of drought-tolerant trees in the past or drought-intolerant trees currently. We conclude that fire is a parsimonious explanation for composition and structure of historical open fire-tolerant oak and pine forests. Fire exclusion was unprecedented during early 20th century and loss of this driver provides a mechanism for forest transitions.