Climate Debate Research Articles

Integrated Approach for Sectoral Carbon Drawdown Solutions

Sectoral contributions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are at the heart of the climate debate. Carbon drawdown solutions from different sectors (e.g. energy, land, urban infrastructure, and industrial systems) will play significant roles in mitigating climate change in the coming decades. This work identifies the feasible carbon drawdown solutions to support GHG emissions reduction paths globally. These solutions should meet both economic constraints and carbon emissions targets. This work develops a novel approach that integrates Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis (CEPA), the Best-Worst Method (BWM), and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). For each sector, BWM is used to evaluate the performance of reduction solutions and identify their priority weights. Then, CBA is used to rank the options further. Finally, CEPA combines with the Marginal Emission Reduction Cost Curve to find the final mix to meet carbon reduction targets and investment costs. The results prioritize global carbon drawdown potentials for the power (186.4 Gt CO2-eq), construction (97.9 Gt CO2-eq), industry (23.8 Gt CO2-eq), transportation (20.2 Gt CO2-eq), food, agriculture, and land use (2.5 Gt CO2-eq) sectors. Based on these results, this work presents an optimal path for carbon drawdown.

Will blue hydrogen lock us into fossil fuels forever?

Will blue hydrogen lock us into fossil fuels forever?

European Climate Law – real changes or postponed future?

One cannot question the scientific evidence of the deterioration of the planet’s environmental quality and the global climate emergency. The apparent growth of denialism in the climate debate does not bring anything positive. The European Green Deal (“EGD”) appeared as a consolidated strategy to fight climate change, but the world is not the same as it was in December 2019. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, there were doubts about the viability of such a powerful political and financial investment. As we try to deal with the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and guide our economies to recovery, risks of diversion or misuse of these environmental funds seemed possible. Fortunately, environmental common sense seems to have prevailed. In an unforeseen but potentially happy marriage, the Recovery Plan for Europe and the EGD were united in their purposes and in their concrete action. The European Climate Law (“ECL”) is the first binding legal instrument born of the EGD. With a non-mishap-free preparation process, the final version provokes contradictory feelings. First, the perception that one could have gone further is inescapable. On the other hand, what is already acquired is relevant and Europe is unlikely to go back on this essential matter. There are innovations in the ECL that significantly altered the Commission’s original proposal, introducing new elements. But while some of these changes appear to have been forced by the new circumstances, others may be proof that Member States do not have the same predisposition to deal with the objectives of the EGD and the fight against climate change. The safest way to contradict this inclination is to strengthen the ECL as a key tool in the implementation of the European Union’s environmental and policy strategy.

The Neo-Malthusian Reflex in Climate Politics: Technocratic, Right Wing and Feminist References

ABSTRACT A neo-Malthusian reflex can be observed in the climate debate: statistical calculations link climate change to world population growth and suggest strategies for birth control. The undead neo-Malthusian ghost is being revived, with its reference to the category of ‘population’ and its colonial-racist and social-Darwinist legacies. This article discusses this dangerous development, paying particular but not exclusive attention to German constellations, showing that the actors who strengthen this narrative range from ecological mainstream positions to those right-wing forces who do not deny climate change. However, some climate activist and feminist positions have also contributed by advocating a birth strike as a strategy for containing climate change. The article analyses three dimensions of neo-Malthusianism: the abstract statistical construction of an excess population; the historically deeply rooted racist and classist attribution of this excess to ‘others’; and the totalitarian visions of global ‘fertility’ management. The argument is that even if the racist and classist attributions are not directly addressed by the more progressive political actors, the three dimensions of neo-Malthusianism strongly flow together and reinforce each other. In conclusion, the text takes up anti-Malthusian feminist perspectives which place a special emphasis on the concept of reproductive justice.

Polish Climate Policy Narratives: Uniqueness, Alternative Pathways, and Nascent Polarisation

European Union (EU) climate politics have polarised over the past decade. Poland especially stands out as the EU member state that has most vehemently opposed numerous decisions to increase the EU’s level of ambition, stirring some turbulence in EU climate politics. Yet, with the publication of the European Green Deal (EGD) in 2019, the European Commission has likewise created turbulence in the Polish parliament’s climate debate. This article analyses those debates and identifies three distinct policy narratives: <em>Poland is in a unique situation</em>, <em>Poland pursues an alternative pathway</em>, and <em>climate policy endangers competitiveness</em>. The <em>alternative pathway</em> narrative, which advocates for the continued use of coal while capturing emissions, faded at roughly the same time when the EGD was proposed at the EU level. Simultaneously, the <em>unique situation</em> narrative, which calls for recognition of Poland’s uniqueness in combination with increased (financial) support, became stronger. The analysis confirms the dominance of the governing party’s narratives, but contrary to previous studies, detects nascent polarisation on climate policy between the right-wing political parties, on the one hand, and the centre-right and centre-left parties, on the other.

Optimised and systematic suitable climate modelling confirms future longitudinal-trends for growing oil palm in Africa

Palms are iconic plants. Oil palms are very important economically and originate in Africa where they can act as a model for palms in general. The effect of future climate on the growth of oil palm will be very detrimental. Latitudinal migration of tropical crops to climate refuges may be impossible, and longitudinal migration has only been confirmed for oil palm, of all the tropical crops. The previous method to determine the longitudinal trend for oil palm used the longitudes of various countries in Africa and plotted these against the percentage suitable climate for growing oil palms in each country. An increasing longitudinal trend was observed from west to east. However, the longitudes of the countries were randomly distributed which may have introduced bias and the procedure was time consuming. The present report presents an optimised and systematic procedure that divided the regions, as presented on a map derived from a CLIMEX model, into ten equal sectors and the percentage suitable climates for growing oil palm were determined for each sector. This approach was quicker, systematic and straight forward and will be useful for management of oil palm plantations under climate change. The method confirmed and validated the trends reported in the original method although the suitability values were often lower and there was less spread of values around the trend. The values for the CSIRO MK3.0 and MIROC H models demonstrated considerable similarities to each other, contributing to validation of the method. The procedure of dividing maps equally into sectors derived from models, could be used for other crops, regions, or systems more generally, where the alternative may be a more superficial visual examination of the maps. Methods are required to mitigate the effects of climate change and stakeholders need to contribute more actively to the current climate debate with tangible actions.

Threshold, budget and deadline: beyond the discourse of climate scarcity and control

Since its inception, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has always been at the centre of the global climate debate. Its authoritative reports provide cultural resources for public understanding on the challenge of climate change. While the IPCC maintains its perception as a policy-neutral adviser, the IPCC in practice acts as a powerful discursive agent that guides policy debates in a certain direction by enacting influential scientific concepts. These concepts include three prominent metaphors—temperature threshold, carbon budget and climate deadline—that have been widely circulated across science, policy and advocacy. Three metaphors differ on ways in which the risk of climate change is expressed in terms of space and time. But they all constitute the discourse of climate scarcity—the cognitive view of that we have (too) little space and time to stay below a physical limit for avoiding dangerous climate change. This discursive construction of physical scarcity on climate change has significant political and psychological implications. Politically, the scarcity discourse has the risk of increasing a post-political tendency towards managerial control of the global climate (‘scarcity of politics’). Psychologically, however, scarcity has a greater risk of generating a ‘scarcity mindset’ that inhibits our cognitive capacity to imagine human life beyond managing physical scarcity. Under a narrow mindset of scarcity, the future is closed down to the ‘point of no return’ that, if crossed, is destined to be the end. To go beyond the scarcity discourse, a new discourse of emancipation has to be fostered. Climate change can be reframed not as a common single destination but as a predicament for actively reimagining human life. Such a narrative can expand our imaginative capacity and animate political action while embracing social losses.

How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the climate change debate on Twitter?

Climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic share many similarities. However, in the past months, concerns have increased about the fact the health emergency has put on hold during the pandemic many climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We focus our attention on understanding the role of the recent health emergency on the transmission of information related to climate change, jointly with other socio-economic variables, social norms, and cultural dimensions. In doing so, we create a unique dataset containing the number of tweets written with specific climate related keywords per country worldwide, as well as country specific socio-economic characteristics, relevant social norms, and cultural variables. We find that socio-economic variables, such as income, education, and other risk-related variables matter in the transmission of information about climate change and Twitter activity. We also find that the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly decreased the overall number of messages written about climate change, postponing the climate debate worldwide; but particularly in some vulnerable countries. This shows that in spite of the existing climate emergency, the current pandemic has had a detrimental effect over the short-term planning of climate policies in countries where climate action is urgent.

How Fairness Principles in the Climate Debate Relate to Theories of Distributive Justice

A central question in international climate policy making is how to distribute the burdens of keeping global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. In particular, there are four distributional issues: how to allocate the total amount of greenhouse gases that can still be emitted, who should bear the costs of mitigation, who should bear the costs of adaptation to unavoidable climate change, and who should bear the costs of residual climate damage. Regarding these distributional issues the academic literature offers a plethora of fairness principles, such as ‘polluter pays’, ‘beneficiary pays’, ‘equal per capita rights’, ‘grandfathering’, ‘ability to pay’, ‘historical responsibility’ and ‘cost effectiveness’. Remarkably, there is a theoretical gap between these principles and the central theories of distributive justice in moral and political philosophy. As a consequence, it is unclear how these principles are related, whether they can be combined or are mutually exclusive, and what the fundamental underlying values are. This paper aims to elucidate that debate. Understanding the different underlying values may facilitate bridge-building and movement in negotiation positions.

Bridging the computational and visual turn: Re-tooling visual studies with image recognition and network analysis to study online climate images

Abstract In this article, we argue that to capture the liveliness of how visual public debates like the climate controversy unfold online, we must replace snapshot and single-platform approaches with a method that can capture their temporal and cross-platform dynamics. We suggest that such a methodology could be assembled by combining image recognition, visual network analysis, and a quali-quantitative approach within a digital methods framework. We demonstrate the potential application of the methodology in a two-fold case study of 1) how the human–nature relation is visually depicted on Instagram and Twitter, and 2) how visual genres in the climate debate on Twitter change from 2015 to 2017. Through these experiments, we analyse more than a quarter million social media images to produce novel insights about the climate debate, while showcasing how the computational and visual capabilities of social science can be bridged to open up opportunities for mapping complex visual debates across platforms and time.

Sweden’s Climate Act – its origin and emergence

ABSTRACT Sweden’s 2017 Climate Act is part of a climate policy framework aiming for net zero domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. The framework was based on a proposal from the All Party Committee on Environmental Objectives (the Committee), in which members from all participating parliamentary parties agreed unanimously. This was despite a contested climate debate running in parallel, notwithstanding strong criticism from business confederations and trade unions. Aiming to draw lessons of value for climate policy-making, this study explores the main factors that influenced the work and outcomes of the Committee, based on a series of in-depth interviews and document review. The research design is linked to policy process theories. The interviews mainly concern underlying motives, the role of knowledge, the influence of impact assessments, and international influence. It is shown that a continuous and comprehensive learning process in the Committee was instrumental for achieving consensus, including addressing concerns among some members regarding policy costs and constitutionality. The Committee was also influenced by policy developments elsewhere, referred to as policy diffusion, notably from the U.K. Climate Change Act and the UNFCCC COP 21 policy process. Over time, a cross-party consensus among Committee members emerged and led to the invention of an original policy proposal. The consensus was instrumental for generating support for the proposal in an otherwise conflictual political landscape. As a result, a governmental bill based on the proposal was eventually enacted into law, renewing Sweden’s climate policy with a climate change act coupled to ambitious climate objectives. Key policy insights Joint learning on factually complex and normatively contested climate issues requires time and comprehensive processes but can lead to policy inventions and ambitious outcomes. Policy diffusion between countries may be important for raising ambitions and shaping innovative, new elements of national climate policy. Framework climate change acts and specific climate laws can be mutually supportive, i.e. frameworks foster more ambitious sectoral laws and the more precise sectoral laws, the easier it is to agree on stricter overall ambitions. Adoption of more stringent climate policies may require precise dismantling of arguments working against action, in particular on policy costs.

BIM-Based Life Cycle Assessment of Buildings—An Investigation of Industry Practice and Needs

The climate debate necessitates reducing greenhouse gas emissions from buildings. A common and standardized method of assessing this is life cycles assessment (LCA); however, time and costs are a barrier. Large efficiency potentials are associated with using data from building information models (BIM) for the LCA, but development is still at an early stage. This study investigates the industry practice and needs for BIM–LCA, and if these are met through a prototype for the Danish context, using IFC and a 3D view. Eight qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with medium and large architect, engineering, and contractor companies, covering a large part of the Danish AEC industry. The companies used a quantity take-off approach, and a few were developing plug-in approaches. Challenges included the lack of quality in the models, thus most companies supplemented model data with other data sources. Features they found valuable for BIM–LCA included visual interface, transparency of data, automation, design evaluation, and flexibility. The 3D view of the prototype met some of the needs, however, there were mixed responses on the use of IFC, due to different workflow needs in the companies. Future BIM–LCA development should include considerations on the lack of quality in models and should support different workflows.

Choices We Make in Times of Crisis

We present a new framework that allows understanding those we deem irrational in the climate debate. Realizing if the issue is one of information, beliefs, values or means opens the door for more constructive dialogue. Decision-makers diverge in their responses to the urgent need for action on climate and biodiversity. Action gaps are fueled by the apparent inability of decision-makers to respond efficiently to the mounting threats described by scientists—and increasingly recognized by society. Surprisingly, with the growing evidence and the accumulation of firsthand experiences of the impacts of environment crises, the gap is not only a problem of conflicting values or beliefs but also a problem of inefficient strategies. Bridging the gap and tackling the growing polarization within society calls for decision-makers to engage with the full complexity of the issues the world is facing. We propose a framework characterizing five archetypes of decision-makers to help us out of the current impasse by better understanding the behavior of others. Dealing with the complexity of environmental threats requires decision-makers to question their understanding of who wins and who loses, and how others make decisions. This requires that decision-makers acknowledge complexity, embrace uncertainty, and avoid falling back on simplistic cognitive models. Understanding the complexity of the issue and how people make decisions is key to having a fighting chance of solving the climate crisis.

Climate impacts on organisms, ecosystems and human societies: integrating OCLTT into a wider context.

Physiological studies contribute to a cause and effect understanding of ecological patterns under climate change and identify the scope and limits of adaptation. Across most habitats, this requires analyzing organism responses to warming, which can be modified by other drivers such as acidification and oxygen loss in aquatic environments or excess humidity or drought on land. Experimental findings support the hypothesis that the width and temperature range of thermal performance curves relate to biogeographical range. Current warming causes range shifts, hypothesized to include constraints in aerobic power budget which in turn are elicited by limitations in oxygen supply capacity in relation to demand. Different metabolic scopes involved may set the borders of both the fundamental niche (at standard metabolic rate) and the realized niche (at routine rate). Relative scopes for aerobic performance also set the capacity of species to interact with others at the ecosystem level. Niche limits and widths are shifting and probably interdependent across life stages, with young adults being least thermally vulnerable. The principles of thermal tolerance and performance may also apply to endotherms including humans, their habitat and human society. Overall, phylogenetically based comparisons would need to consider the life cycle of species as well as organism functional properties across climate zones and time scales. This Review concludes with a perspective on how mechanism-based understanding allows scrutinizing often simplified modeling approaches projecting future climate impacts and risks for aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. It also emphasizes the usefulness of a consensus-building process among experimentalists for better recognition in the climate debate.

Influence of snow making on albedo and local radiative forcing in an alpine area

In the present paper, the climate cooling potential of technical snow making on ski slopes is investigated with regard to radiative forcing. It is well-known, that snow shows a higher degree of reflection compared to other ground surfaces. During snow-poor winters, guaranteeing snow covered ski slopes by using snow making may therefore lead to an increase in the albedo of a mountainous region. Since increasing albedo engenders a negative radiative forcing, the cooling potential of snow production on ski slopes is of particular relevance in the context of the current climate debate. Investigations were however generally performed for flat surfaces. Several studies nevertheless demonstrated that the topography leads to a substantial decrease in the mean albedo of a given region. This is attributable to shading effects and to slope inclinations.The present study was therefore dedicated to the accurate simulation of the impact of the albedo increase of ski slopes on the mean albedo and on the resulting change in shortwave radiative budget of a chosen mountainous region. We used therefore a state of the art 3-dimensional radiative transfer model. The investigations were carried out for the skiing area Saalbach-Hinterglemm in Austria. Broadband snow albedo values between 0.61 and 0.62 in cloudless conditions and 0.64 and 0.65 in cloudy conditions for solar zenith angle (sza) between 30 and 80 degrees were used for the simulations. An uncertainty of ±0.17 was taken into account. First a sensitivity study was performed, that showed a substantial decrease in the mean albedo of the ski slopes as a function of slope inclination. A strong impact of topography and of surrounding trees on the mean albedo of the ski slopes of up to 40% and 14% respectively was found at high sza under clear sky conditions. Compared to snow free conditions an increase in albedo between 0.18 and 0.36 was observed, the higher values for smaller sza and assuming no trees in the surroundings. Only related to the ski slopes a radiative forcing between −7 and −35 W/m2 was obtained. If the long-term snow cover conditions were taken into account, snow making lead to a change in albedo, only, in March and April. The increase in albedo was just below 0.10 in April and 0.02 in March, resulting in a radiative forcing around −12 W/m2 and around −1.5 W/m2 respectively. Though, in order to analyze an eventual cooling effect on climate the whole carbon footprint related to the production of technical snow making shall be determined.

A Current Examination of the German Energy Industry, Fossil Fuel Use, and Climate Change

Energy firms provide key sources of energy needed to power the world economy. This paper offers a current overview of major energy firms in Germany, including location, geographic operations, and financial performance. German energy firms increasingly use renewable energy sources, thereby reducing use of fossil fuels, which are considered contributors to climate change. The topic of climate change is a highly contentious political debate. The political debate centers on how much of climate change is human-caused and what will be the future consequences. Extensive research indicates that climate change will not have significant negative consequences and could even have beneficial consequences. Nevertheless, radical environmental activists, aka climate-change-catastrophe-proponents (CCCPs), oppose any fossil fuel use. One thing not debatable is that reducing use of fossil fuels has increased the cost of energy and has thereby negatively affected economic progress. That the speculative benefit of reducing use of fossil fuel is more than the cost to society is unlikely. Political leaders, policy makers, and government regulators, in Germany and other countries, should consider both sides of the climate debate when formulating future energy policy.

Consumer behaviour and climate action: insights from a Randomised Control Trial experiment in India's residential cooling sector

Air-conditioning is expected to be the largest consumer of residential energy in India in the future. Good consumer practices related to servicing air-conditioners (ACs) are critical for maintaining high operational efficiency of ACs and reducing leakages of high global warming potential (GWP) refrigerant gases. Little information, however, is available about the knowledge and practices of Indian AC consumers in terms of their operational practices. The Government of India's ‘India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP)’ recommends a massive consumer awareness program to inform and change AC user behaviour. Within this context of the ICAP that aims to provide access to sustainable cooling to its masses while minimising its environmental impacts, we undertake a survey and a Randomised Control Trial (RCT) experiment including Indian consumers. The survey and experiment together aim to understand the AC servicing behaviour of Indian consumers and experiment with alternative interventions to influence their behaviour and glean insights for India's energy and climate policies. The behavioural experiment is a unique and novel methodological contribution to India's cooling and climate debate. This research is a first-of-its-kind RCT study of Indian consumers' AC servicing practices. We find that the AC users' knowledge of the importance of preventive servicing is much lower than required. The interventions were successful in enhancing general awareness related to the importance of servicing practices, but not in enhancing technical knowledge related to specific good servicing practices. Our analysis shows that consumers who know about the economic benefit of servicing are more likely to undertake preventive servicing. Our findings highlight the presence of information asymmetry in the Indian residential cooling market and argue that this needs to be addressed for achieving the desired behavioural change and actions to mitigate climate change.

Who are American evangelical Protestants and why do they matter forUSclimate policy?

AbstractWhite evangelical Protestants are the most skeptical major religious group in the United States regarding climate change. While their position of political influence in the Republican coalition is widely recognised, the full range of effects of this position on evangelicals' climate opinions is not. To move research on evangelicals from the margins of climate change opinion research, we review and integrate the interdisciplinary literature on US evangelicals, climate change, and politics. In assessing this literature, we identify three areas in need of further research. First, there is a critical need for more research on the climate attitudes of evangelicals of color, who comprise a growing share of the evangelical tradition in the US. Second, highlighting the Christian Right's active engagement in the climate debate, we identify a need for more experimental work examining how cues from religious elites may shape evangelicals' opinions. Finally, we suggest that to better harness insights across disciplines, researchers must become more explicitly aware of how different disciplines conceptualize temporality. Attending to temporal scale suggests that a new approach is needed to test how dominion beliefs, which are widely thought to be an important theological driver of climate skepticism, operate. We also suggest that two factors that appear to play a weak or limited role in driving climate skepticism over the short term (anti‐science attitudes and evangelical religiosity) may in fact play a significant role in driving skepticism over the medium term.This article is categorized under:Perceptions, Behavior, and Communication of Climate Change > Perceptions of Climate ChangeTrans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > Humanities and the Creative Arts

Economic development and CSR assurance: Important drivers for carbon reporting… yet inefficient drivers for carbon management?

This study contributes to the current climate debate by shedding some light on the driving forces of the disclosure and management of carbon emissions in the context of developed and developing economies. Our findings show that the probability of not reporting total carbon emissions is significantly higher in companies located in a developing than in a developed economy. In addition, the company's sustainability profile (the sustainability report, its assurance and the existence of a Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) committee), gender diversity policies and other corporate variables (especially size), significantly increase the probability of disclosing total carbon emissions, Scope 1 and Scope 2. Regarding carbon management, however, there are no significant differences between developed and developing economies, and the evidence indicates that the existence of a CSR committee has a significant impact on emission reduction Scope 1 and Scope 2; while the size of the company only influences the reduction of emissions of Scope 2 – the other variables considered do not have a significant effect. The results obtained can be valuable for business executives, governments and government regulators by identifying corporate governance practices that could be improved and contribute strategically to the environmental situation in developed and developing countries.

Hot weather, hot topic. Polarization and sceptical framing in the climate debate on Twitter

ABSTRACT Extreme weather events like the heat wave of 2018 reinforce public attention for climate change. Social media platforms facilitate, define and amplify debate about this topic. They give rise to counterpublic spaces through which counterpublics such as climate sceptics get a stage they would not easily get in mainstream media. Previous research suggests that sceptics use these spaces as safe havens, but also as bases for interventions in the hegemonic debate. Applying a multideterminant frame model, we analyse the Twitter debate among climate change ‘sceptics’ and ‘believers’. We study all tweets in which the heat wave was related to climate change and which were shared by Dutch and Flemish users between 28 July 2018 and 4 August 2018. Laying bare the worldviews underlying the frames of sceptics and non-sceptics, we first demonstrate the diversity of – unilaterally interacting – ideological interests. Building upon this analysis of the scope of the debate and analysing its form, we show that both groups mostly use similar antagonistic strategies to delegitimize and denaturalize their out-groups. We argue that these interventions promote polarization rather than a constructive agonistic debate. As such, this study refutes previous studies that consider sceptic frames as deconstructive and non-sceptic frames as constructive.