Great Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize): A continuous, annually-resolved record of Common Era sea surface temperature, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and cyclone-controlled run-off

Abstract

The Holocene (<11.7 kyr BP) is characterized by several periods of distinct climate changes. Some of these climate variations had extensive effects on mankind and coincided with demises of extinct high civilizations. Annually-resolved climate reconstructions will certainly play an increasingly important role in public perception, when applying these past patterns to the recent climate debate. The future consequences of the ongoing climate crisis are still challenging to predict, due to the lack of comprehensive, annually-resolved and continuous sea-surface temperature (SST) data. Our 8.55 m long sediment core from the bottom of the Great Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize) provides an annually-resolved, continuous and unique south-western Caribbean climate record for the last 1885 years. The varved, “lake-like” sinkhole successions of marine carbonates encompass approximately the entire Common Era (0 CE-modern), a time window, which is key for studying climatic variations and their effects on human society. Our SST record is based on stable isotopes (δ18O) and molecular proxy applications (TEX86). Throughout the Common Era, oxygen isotopes (δ18O) and TEX86 data imply a general SST rise of 0.5 °C and 1.3 °C, respectively, within the south-western Caribbean. The modulation of SST within the Common Era time series likely operated on two different time levels: (1) Solar (e.g., “Gleissberg Cycles”) and volcanic activity triggered climate changes, which in turn induced responses of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Their changing mode of action has been identified as a likely origin of the primary, i.e., centennially scaled SST variability. We suspect long-term positive AMO and NAO modes as the primary key control mechanisms of the Dark Ages Cold and Medieval Warm Period SST patterns. ENSO mode modulation likely exerted primary control on regional SST variability during the Little Ice Age and the Modern Global Warming. (2) Our δ18O data further indicate a striking secondary control on multi-decadal time scales: δ18O variations occur with 32–64 years periodicity. This signal is clearly evidence of SST modulation controlled by AMO phase changes (50–70 years) over almost the entire Common Era. Our carbon isotope record (δ13C) exhibits two remarkable negative anomalies and a long-term up-core decreasing trend. The first excursion (drop of 0.5‰) occurred with the onset of the Medieval Warm Period, which is reconstructed to be a peak time in south-western Caribbean tropical cyclone (TC) activity. This overlap is stressing a potential context between TC activity, enhanced coastal run-off and increased soil-erosion reflected by 13C-depleted carbon isotopes. A second anomaly (>1900 CE) is more likely the result of the “Suess Effect” (anthropogenic impact of the Industrial Revolution on carbon isotopes composition) than another reflection of a TC peak activity interval.