Civil Protection Authorities Research Articles

The Uncontrolled Reentry of Progress-M 27M

ABSTRACT Uncontrolled reentries of sizable space objects are becoming of growing concern due to the increase of space activities around the Earth and population on the ground. After providing an updated review of various aspects of the problem, this paper presents the exemplar case of Progress-M 27M, whose control was lost immediately after launch, on April 28, 2015, and which reentered on May 8. As in similar previous occurrences, the Space Flight Dynamics Laboratory of ISTI/CNR, in Pisa, was in charge of reentry predictions for the Italian civil protection authorities and space agency. The first prediction was issued in the morning of April 30, in the morning of May 7 the only potentially risky reentry trajectory over central Italy was identified, and in the afternoon of May 7, about 12hours before the actual reentry, any residual risk for Europe and Italy was finally excluded.

Multidisciplinary oil spill modeling to protect coastal communities and the environment of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

We present new mathematical and geological models to assist civil protection authorities in the mitigation of potential oil spill accidents in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Oil spill simulations for 19 existing offshore wells were carried out based on novel and high resolution bathymetric, meteorological, oceanographic, and geomorphological data. The simulations show a trend for east and northeast movement of oil spills into the Levantine Basin, affecting the coastal areas of Israel, Lebanon and Syria. Oil slicks will reach the coast in 1 to 20 days, driven by the action of the winds, currents and waves. By applying a qualitative analysis, seabed morphology is for the first time related to the direction of the oil slick expansion, as it is able to alter the movement of sea currents. Specifically, the direction of the major axis of the oil spills, in most of the cases examined, is oriented according to the prevailing azimuth of bathymetric features. This work suggests that oil spills in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea should be mitigated in the very few hours after their onset, and before wind and currents disperse them. We explain that protocols should be prioritized between neighboring countries to mitigate any oil spills.

The Potential Predictability of Fire Danger Provided by Numerical Weather Prediction

AbstractA global fire danger rating system driven by atmospheric model forcing has been developed with the aim of providing early warning information to civil protection authorities. The daily predictions of fire danger conditions are based on the U.S. Forest Service National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS), the Canadian Forest Service Fire Weather Index Rating System (FWI), and the Australian McArthur (Mark 5) rating systems. Weather forcings are provided in real time by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts forecasting system at 25-km resolution. The global system’s potential predictability is assessed using reanalysis fields as weather forcings. The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED4) provides 11 yr of observed burned areas from satellite measurements and is used as a validation dataset. The fire indices implemented are good predictors to highlight dangerous conditions. High values are correlated with observed fire, and low values correspond to nonobserved events. A more quantitative skill evaluation was performed using the extremal dependency index, which is a skill score specifically designed for rare events. It revealed that the three indices were more skillful than the random forecast to detect large fires on a global scale. The performance peaks in the boreal forests, the Mediterranean region, the Amazon rain forests, and Southeast Asia. The skill scores were then aggregated at the country level to reveal which nations could potentially benefit from the system information to aid decision-making and fire control support. Overall it was found that fire danger modeling based on weather forecasts can provide reasonable predictability over large parts of the global landmass.

Investigating the nature of an ash cloud event in Southern Chile using remote sensing: volcanic eruption or resuspension?

ABSTRACTOn 14 December 2013, the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (United States) reported a volcanic ash cloud apparently emitted by the Puyehue Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (Chile) and indicated its cause was probably resuspension. The distinction of volcanic ash resuspension from volcanic eruptions is important because both processes pose different scenarios for civil protection authorities and besides, there is a special need of specific schemes for detecting and monitoring resuspension of volcanic ash. To this end, we intended to identify the cause of this event by using remote sensing technology. Remote sensing based volcanic ash products enabled us to confirm the presence of volcanic ash and observations on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)–based cloud-integrated water path provided evidence in favour of a small and short-lived eruption. Thus, a volcanic eruption would constitute a plausible explanation for the cloud of 14 December 2013, but we were unable to discard resuspension. On the other hand, we found out that the water path product could constitute useful ancillary data to identify the origin of this kind of processes. The set of observations presented constitutes a good initial point towards the identification and subsequent development of decision support tools for the mitigation of the hazards posed by volcanic ash resulting from volcanic eruptions and resuspension.

Seismic characterisation of lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico

Volcan de Colima is one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, not only for its eruptive history, but also for its annual occurrence of lahars. This makes the volcano a natural laboratory for monitoring and studying lahar processes. Since 2011, monitoring instruments have been deployed along the highly active Montegrande ravine, with at least three lahar events per year. Here, we report the datasets of three events collected during the 2012 and 2013 seasons, then interpret the acquired data. An event classification scheme based on lahar magnitude, duration and seismic characteristics is presented to distinguish “single-pulse” events (SPEs) from “multi-pulse” events (MPE). SPEs lasted approximately 60 min, had average velocities of ~2 m/s and mean peak discharges of ~24 m3/s. MPEs endured for more than 3 h, reached mean velocities of ~4.5 m/s and peak discharges of ~60 m3/s (for block-rich surges). The seismic signal-analysis also allowed us to discriminate physical flow fluctuations within single lahars, i.e. between the arrival of block-rich fronts and subsequent variations in flow discharge. The exponential regression analysis showed a best fit, with correlation coefficients around 0.92 and exponential coefficients of ~0.01 s, for the block-rich fronts, with seismic amplitudes increasing from 4.8 × 10−4 to 2.3 × 10−3 m/s and frequency ranges from 10 to 20 Hz. The variations in flow discharge were distinguished by lower amplitudes of ~5.7 × 10−4 m/s than those of the block-rich fronts and with frequency ranges of 10–40 Hz. The results presented in this paper demonstrate that the seismic data of events allowed us to describe and discriminate among different flow types; these records are thus a useful investigation tool for lahar events that have a seismic record but are not observed directly. We propose that a seismic early warning system can be developed to help civil protection authorities in designing risk mitigation strategies.

A multi-period shelter location-allocation model with evacuation orders for flood disasters

Floods are a significant threat for several countries, endangering the safety and the well-being of populations. Civil protection authorities are in charge of flood emergency evacuation, providing means to help the evacuation and ensuring that people have comfortable and safe places to stay. This work presents a multi-period location-allocation approach that identifies where and when to open a predefined number of shelters, when to send evacuation orders, and how to assign evacuees to shelters over time. The objective is to minimize the overall network distances that evacuees have to travel to reach the shelters. The multi-period optimization model takes into account that the travel times vary over time depending on the road conditions. People’s reaction to the flood evolution is also considered to be dynamic. We also assume that shelters become available in different time periods and have a limited capacity. We present a mathematical formulation for this model which can be solved using an off-the-shelf commercial optimization solver, but only for small instances. For real size problems, given the dynamic characteristics of the problem, obtaining an optimal solution can take several hours of computing time. Thus, a simulated annealing heuristic is proposed. The efficiency of the heuristic is demonstrated with a comparison between the heuristic and the solver solutions for a set of random problems. The applicability of the multi-period model and of the heuristic is illustrated using a case study which highlights the importance and the benefits of adopting a dynamic approach for optimizing emergency response operations.

A one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system with combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting

Coupled hydrological and atmospheric modeling is an effective tool for providing advanced flood forecasting. However, the uncertainties in precipitation forecasts are still considerable. To address uncertainties, a one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system, with a combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting, has been developed. It consists of three high-resolution single models and four sets of ensemble forecasts from the THORPEX Interactive Grande Global Ensemble database. The former provides higher forecasting accuracy, while the latter provides the range of forecasts. The combined precipitation forecasting was then implemented to drive the Chinese National Flood Forecasting System in the 2007 and 2008 Huai River flood hindcast analysis. The encouraging results demonstrated that the system can clearly give a set of forecasting hydrographs for a flood event and has a promising relative stability in discharge peaks and timing for warning purposes. It not only gives a deterministic prediction, but also generates probability forecasts. Even though the signal was not persistent until four days before the peak discharge was observed in the 2007 flood event, the visualization based on threshold exceedance provided clear and concise essential warning information at an early stage. Forecasters could better prepare for the possibility of a flood at an early stage, and then issue an actual warning if the signal strengthened. This process may provide decision support for civil protection authorities. In future studies, different weather forecasts will be assigned various weight coefficients to represent the covariance of predictors and the extremes of distributions.

Analysis of disasters impacts and the relevant role of critical infrastructures for crisis management improvement

Purpose – Disasters are complex phenomena, by diverse nature and whose management is complicated. An efficient analysis of potential impacts that may result as consequence of a disaster has to be conducted to improve the preparation and response in face of future events. Design/methodology/approach – A review of impact evaluation methodologies and real disasters’ impacts has been performed to develop an impact indicators’ framework. Then, a questionnaire has been administered to critical infrastructure (CI) operators to identify CI dependencies and their consequences. Findings – A proper impact analysis improves learning about the consequences of a disaster and the way those impacts should be managed. Moreover, current impact evaluation methodologies do not make special focus on CIs even if their proper functioning is essential for society’s welfare. Crisis managers such as civil protection, emergency services and local authorities among others need to be aware of the importance of critical infrastructure s when managing a disaster. Also crisis managers and managers of CIs need to know how dependencies make impacts spread from one CI to others or to different sectors. Social implications – Through an efficient management, the development of preventive measures and response programs can help to mitigate impacts’ harshness for CIs and for the whole society and may even prevent future disasters. However, if crisis managers and managers of CIs are unaware of disasters consequences, their management will result inefficient. Originality/value – A holistic and dynamic analysis of disaster impacts has been performed. The integration of impact indicators together with their behaviour over time analysis will help improving future crises management.

Implications of legal scrutiny processes (including the L’Aquila trial and other recent court cases) for future volcanic risk governance

Discourse about the L’Aquila trial in Italy has overlooked the many different roles that laws play within risk governance. For volcanic risk governance, laws not only create the duty holders, beneficiaries and the relationships between them (the stakeholders) and the duties and rights (the stakes) but also dictate the acceptable standards of safety and wellbeing (the ultimate rewards). Within any legal regime, certain court cases will attract a high public profile. They can serve a very helpful role by opening the black box of societal risk management so that robust and candid scrutiny of the past can lead to better management of the future. With such cases, the goal of the competent observer is to advance beyond debate about contested factual details of the past (the noise of what happened) and, by process of induction, to identify wider issues of principle and precedent upon which to make reasoned improvements (the signal to guide what should happen differently in the future and why). The generic characteristics of law-based regulatory regimes are identified because they can be treated as ‘constants’ which do not change, or do so only very slowly over time. Accordingly, these aspects are highly relevant to long-term risk governance. More ephemeral case-specific factual issues often remain contested and, accordingly, receive less attention here. Significant recent court cases, including L’Aquila, are framed by process of deduction within a generalised legal infrastructure in order to identify the root causes of the apparent status quo of risk governance. This forensic approach is vital not only to identify the legal responsibilities of societal risk managers and the managerial risks that they face and their causes but also to consider possible mitigation strategies. We identify the critical issue of managerial risk vulnerability related to ‘standard equivocality’ which is the absence of commonly recognised standards for hazard communications to risk decision makers. This absence may result from the lack of regulation of relevant practices and practitioners. We offer some recommendations to fuel debate not only within those science groups that reacted to the L’Aquila case but also the scientific community as a whole. Finally, we argue that checklists represent a rational and methodical way to develop acceptable practice standards focussed upon the difficult risk mitigation choices that are made by civil protection authorities and at-risk individuals.

UAV Deployment Exercise for Mapping Purposes: Evaluation of Emergency Response Applications.

Exploiting the decrease of costs related to UAV technology, the humanitarian community started piloting the use of similar systems in humanitarian crises several years ago in different application fields, i.e., disaster mapping and information gathering, community capacity building, logistics and even transportation of goods. Part of the author’s group, composed of researchers in the field of applied geomatics, has been piloting the use of UAVs since 2006, with a specific focus on disaster management application. In the framework of such activities, a UAV deployment exercise was jointly organized with the Regional Civil Protection authority, mainly aimed at assessing the operational procedures to deploy UAVs for mapping purposes and the usability of the acquired data in an emergency response context. In the paper the technical features of the UAV platforms will be described, comparing the main advantages/disadvantages of fixed-wing versus rotor platforms. The main phases of the adopted operational procedure will be discussed and assessed especially in terms of time required to carry out each step, highlighting potential bottlenecks and in view of the national regulation framework, which is rapidly evolving. Different methodologies for the processing of the acquired data will be described and discussed, evaluating the fitness for emergency response applications.

The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe

Effective disaster risk management relies on science-based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, in order to save lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital early flood warning information to national and international civil protection authorities, who can use this information to make decisions on how to prepare for upcoming floods. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings are estimated based on the forecasts of the continental-scale European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) using existing flood damage cost information and calculations of potential avoided flood damages. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test the uncertainty in the method and develop an envelope of potential monetary benefits of EFAS warnings. The results provide clear evidence that there is likely a substantial monetary benefit in this cross-border continental-scale flood early warning system. This supports the wider drive to implement early warning systems at the continental or global scale to improve our resilience to natural hazards.

The landslide geodatabase of the Messina Province: a tool in the civil protection emergency cycle

Landslide geo-databases including inventories and thematic data, are today fundamental tools for national and / or local authorities in susceptibility, hazard and risk management. A well organized landslide geo-database contains different kind of data such as past information (landslide inventory maps), ancillary data and updated remote sensing (space-borne and ground based) data , which can be integrated in order to produce landslide susceptibility maps, updated landslide inventory maps and hazard and risk assessment maps. The Italian region is strongly affected by landslides phenomena which cause victims and relevant economic damages to buildings and infrastructures, loss of productive soils and pasture lands. In particular, the Messina Province (southern Italy) represents an area where landslides are recurrent and characterized by high magnitude, due to several predisposing factors (morphology, land use, lithologies) and different triggering mechanisms (meteorological conditions, seismicity, active tectonics and volcanic activity). For this area, a geo-database was created including different monitoring techniques, comprising remote sensing (e.g. SAR satellite ERS1/2, ENVISAT, RADARSAT-1, TerraSAR-X, COSMO-SkyMed) data, and in situ measurements (e.g. GBInSAR, damage assessment). In this paper a complete landslide geo-database of the Messina Province, designed following the requirements of the local and national Civil Protection Authorities is presented. This geo-database was used to produce maps (e.g. susceptibility, ground deformation velocities, damages assessment, risk zonation) which today are constantly used by the Civil Protection authorities to manage the landslide hazard of the Messina Province.

Remote sensing as tool for development of landslide databases: The case of the Messina Province (Italy) geodatabase

Landslide geodatabases, including inventories and thematic data, today are fundamental tools for national and/or local authorities in susceptibility, hazard and risk management. A well organized landslide geo-database contains different kinds of data such as past information (landslide inventory maps), ancillary data and updated remote sensing (space-borne and ground based) data, which can be integrated in order to produce landslide susceptibility maps, updated landslide inventory maps and hazard and risk assessment maps. Italy is strongly affected by landslide phenomena which cause victims and significant economic damage to buildings and infrastructure, loss of productive soils and pasture lands. In particular, the Messina Province (southern Italy) represents an area where landslides are recurrent and characterized by high magnitude, due to several predisposing factors (e.g. morphology, land use, lithologies) and different triggering mechanisms (meteorological conditions, seismicity, active tectonics and volcanic activity). For this area, a geodatabase was created by using different monitoring techniques, including remote sensing (e.g. SAR satellite ERS1/2, ENVISAT, RADARSAT-1, TerraSAR-X, COSMO-SkyMed) data, and in situ measurements (e.g. GBInSAR, damage assessment). In this paper a complete landslide geodatabase of the Messina Province, designed following the requirements of the local and national Civil Protection authorities, is presented. This geo-database was used to produce maps (e.g. susceptibility, ground deformation velocities, damage assessment, risk zonation) which today are constantly used by the Civil Protection authorities to manage the landslide hazard of the Messina Province.

Implementation and Challenges of the Tsunami Warning System in the Western Mediterranean

The French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT) has been in operation since 2012. It is contributing to the North-eastern and Mediterranean (NEAM) tsunami warning and mitigation system coordinated by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, and benefits from data exchange with several foreign institutes. This center is supported by the French Government and provides French civil-protection authorities and member states of the NEAM region with relevant messages for assessing potential tsunami risk when an earthquake has occurred in the Western Mediterranean sea or the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean. To achieve its objectives, CENALT has developed a series of innovative techniques based on recent research results in seismology for early tsunami warning, monitoring of sea level variations and detection capability, and effective numerical computation of ongoing tsunamis.

A prototype tool for dynamic pluvial-flood emergency planning

Due to the increased frequency of extreme rainfall events caused by climate change, flooding in urban areas is becoming increasingly recurrent. Nevertheless, mitigation and response actions to flood events are still defined according to the best judgments of civil protection authorities, based on their experience and on simple flood modelling tools. In this paper we present the methodological structure of an innovative prototype tool for dynamic pluvial-flood emergency planning. The tool is aimed at helping civil protection authorities (and the population) in the preparation, mitigation and response to flood events. The 2009 flood in the Agualva village (Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal), is used to exemplify the model's calibration and to illustrate the prototype capabilities. The results highlight the importance of considering a dynamic approach in the design of pluvial-flood emergency planning.

The Ingelsberg landslide (Bad Hofgastein, Austria): description and first results of monitoring system (GBInSAR technique)

The present work shows the first results of a monitoring campaign performed at the Ingelsberg slope in Bad Hofgastein (Austria). The Groung-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GBInSAR) was used to create displacement maps, providing information on the location and magnitude of the phenomena studied. These information provide a significant support to decision makers during landslide emergencies, allowing the civil protection authorities to assess the risk and to manage an efficacious emergencies response. In detail, the landslide assessment and the correlation of the GBInSAR data with meteorological data and those obtained by other monitoring instruments are discussed highlighting the open problems related to data acquisition, processing and analysis.

Sistema de apoio à decisão na comunicação de acidentes graves

Devido à actividade de produção, manuseamento, armazenagem e transporte de substâncias químicas perigosas numa área industrial, pode ocorrer um grave acidente químico, que pode afectar as empresas vizinhas e a população envolvente. Perante os vários cenários de danos físicos e humanos, o objectivo deste projecto centrou-se no desenvolvimento de uma aplicação de apoio à decisão na comunicação de acidentes graves às autoridades de protecção civil. A aplicação de metodologias, com recurso a software específico, resultaram no desenvolvimento de uma aplicação que visa permitir e facilitar esta tomada de decisões, apoiando a direcção de emergência das empresas a gerir este tipo de comunicações em situações de crise.

Implications of maximum daily precipitation on streamflow of a watershed: a case study in Zacatecas, Mexico

ABSTRACTIn this article, we present the results of the analysis of a flood event that occurred on 18 July 2008 in the town of Tlaltenango, Zacatecas, Mexico. The flood was caused by a storm that reached an accumulated precipitation of 145 mm/day. The event was caused by the passage of hurricane Fausto that produced an intensification of moisture transport to the mainland channelled by topography. The storm event was simulated using the Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The hydrologic model Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)-1 was then employed to determine the run-off hydrographs and streamflows. Finally, the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model predicted water levels by integrating information about channel geometry and characteristics such as roughness. The numerical results show that the map of the flooded area as simulated by the HEC-RAS model matches the observed inundation extent for this event well. The calculated values for water levels were quite similar to those directly recorded by civil protection authorities in the urban area. Despite the recent history of recurring flood events, plans and strategies have not been implemented to reduce flooding.

Risk reduction through community-based monitoring: the vigías of Tungurahua, Ecuador

Since 2000, a network of volunteers known as vigías has been engaged in community-based volcano monitoring, which involves local citizens in the collection of scientific data, around volcán Tungurahua, Ecuador. This paper provides the first detailed description and analysis of this well-established initiative, drawing implications for volcanic risk reduction elsewhere. Based on 32 semi-structured interviews and other qualitative data collected in June and July 2013 with institutional actors and with vigías themselves, the paper documents the origins and development of the network, identifies factors that have sustained it, and analyses the ways in which it contributes to disaster risk reduction. Importantly, the case highlights how this community-based network performs multiple functions in reducing volcanic risk. The vigías network functions simultaneously as a source of observational data for scientists; as a communication channel for increasing community awareness, understanding of hazard processes and for enhancing preparedness; and as an early warning system for civil protection. Less tangible benefits with nonetheless material consequences include enhanced social capital – through the relationships and capabilities that are fostered – and improved trust between partners. Establishing trust-based relationships between citizens, the vigías, scientists and civil protection authorities is one important factor in the effectiveness and resilience of the network. Other factors discussed in the paper that have contributed to the longevity of the network include the motivations of the vigías, a clear and regular communication protocol, persistent volcanic activity, the efforts of key individuals, and examples of successful risk reduction attributable to the activities of the network. Lessons that can be learned about the potential of community-based monitoring for disaster risk reduction in other contexts are identified, including what the case tells us about the conditions that can affect the effectiveness of such initiatives and their resilience to changing circumstances.

Insights from Hazus loss estimations in Israel for Dead Sea Transform earthquakes

History shows that countries along the Dead Sea Transform, including Israel, have suffered considerable destruction from strong earthquakes, and thus, a modern approach for damage and loss estimations is essential in mitigating damage from future earthquakes. Yet to date, only preliminary damage scenarios have been developed. The present study uses the Hazus MH 2.1 (2012) software to simulate damage and loss estimation for seven earthquakes that may affect Israel. For the first time, over 2,200 different building construction schemes, including a comprehensive nationwide building inventory of over 900K buildings, were simulated in order to identify the high-risk areas and suggest potential mitigation strategies as well as a financial budget plan that would ultimately alleviate the anticipated catastrophe in Israel. The results show excellent ability of Hazus to resolve the expected levels of damage, including damages for various types of buildings, debris and economic losses. Furthermore, it shows that the most intensive damage is expected to concentrate in northern Israel, mainly in the Haifa and Bet Shean regions, as well as in areas of older building stock and adjacent to the major fault lines. Comparison between the budget required for strengthening structures and the economic loss expected after a strong earthquake shows that strengthening structures will undoubtedly reduce the disaster magnitude dramatically. The loss estimations can provide decision makers a tool for planning post-earthquake emergency actions including rescue, debris clearance, building inspection, sheltering requirements and directing the civil protection authorities in a focused and proper response during an earthquake event. Although local fragility curves have not yet been developed in Israel, the new scenarios presented here demonstrate that the benefits of realizing already now the rough scope of earthquake damage greatly outdo future gains from as yet unavailable exact assessments.