Abstract
Effective disaster risk management relies on science-based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, in order to save lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital early flood warning information to national and international civil protection authorities, who can use this information to make decisions on how to prepare for upcoming floods. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings are estimated based on the forecasts of the continental-scale European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) using existing flood damage cost information and calculations of potential avoided flood damages. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test the uncertainty in the method and develop an envelope of potential monetary benefits of EFAS warnings. The results provide clear evidence that there is likely a substantial monetary benefit in this cross-border continental-scale flood early warning system. This supports the wider drive to implement early warning systems at the continental or global scale to improve our resilience to natural hazards.
Highlights
Flood forecasting systems have become an essential part of flood risk management, across all spatial scales, from local to continental (Meyer et al, 2012; Pagano et al, 2014; Stephens and Cloke, 2014)
The damage data used in this study report flood events in a different way to both the operational European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and the reforecasts; floods are reported by country or by individual flood event
To EM-DAT two interpretations regarding the damages can be made, and analysis must be based on European averages, so the European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) data is combined with the EFAS European average reforecast for the period 2012–2013
Summary
Flood forecasting systems have become an essential part of flood risk management, across all spatial scales, from local to continental (Meyer et al, 2012; Pagano et al, 2014; Stephens and Cloke, 2014). In order for early flood warnings to be translated into decisions, clear mandates and responsibilities along the early warning chain from forecast to decision maker must exist This is important when assessing continental and global cross-border early warning systems, such as EFAS, as they can serve both as the main source of information in countries which do not have their own early warning system established, and as an alternative source of information which can provide ‘added value’ where there is already national capability for monitoring and forecasting.
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