Multidisciplinary oil spill modeling to protect coastal communities and the environment of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Tiago M Alves,Costas Panagiotakis,Robin Lardner,George Zodiatis,Hari Radhakrishnan,Eleni Kokinou

doi:10.1038/srep36882

Tiago M Alves, Costas Panagiotakis + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/srep36882

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Abstract

We present new mathematical and geological models to assist civil protection authorities in the mitigation of potential oil spill accidents in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Oil spill simulations for 19 existing offshore wells were carried out based on novel and high resolution bathymetric, meteorological, oceanographic, and geomorphological data. The simulations show a trend for east and northeast movement of oil spills into the Levantine Basin, affecting the coastal areas of Israel, Lebanon and Syria. Oil slicks will reach the coast in 1 to 20 days, driven by the action of the winds, currents and waves. By applying a qualitative analysis, seabed morphology is for the first time related to the direction of the oil slick expansion, as it is able to alter the movement of sea currents. Specifically, the direction of the major axis of the oil spills, in most of the cases examined, is oriented according to the prevailing azimuth of bathymetric features. This work suggests that oil spills in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea should be mitigated in the very few hours after their onset, and before wind and currents disperse them. We explain that protocols should be prioritized between neighboring countries to mitigate any oil spills.

Highlights

We present new mathematical and geological models to assist civil protection authorities in the mitigation of potential oil spill accidents in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea
This study demonstrates the importance of major flow features dominating the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in the dispersion of oil spills from each existing offshore and coastal platforms (Fig. 1)
A total of 19 oil spill simulations corresponding to 19 different locations, were combined with bathymetric, meteorological, oceanographic, and geomorphological data in this paper to conclude: (a) Oil slick trajectories in the Eastern Mediterranean are related to the seabed morphology

Summary

Introduction

The combined action of NW winds turning SW, and of local sea currents in respect to the location of the Cyprus eddy activity, resulted in the capture of an oil spill hypothetical released from the Aphrodite well, within the area of the Cyprus eddy, for a period of more than a month, not allowing the movement oil slick to the coast of nearby countries. Notwithstanding these findings, the Cyprus eddy shows a striking variability in terms of its location, within a distance of around 80 km and a period of 2–3 months. As the Eastern Mediterranean constitutes an environmentally protected area of the highest priority[13], it was crucial to prepare our modeling work flow by: (a) taking into account the high temporal and spatial variability in oceanographic and meteorological conditions recorded in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, namely with the use of a high-resolution database spanning from 2009 to 2014, (b) gathering detailed bathymetric and geomorphologic data to assist the compilation of hazard maps[5] for the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, knowing in advance that large swathes of the coastline are low-lying, sediment rich and vulnerable to the smallest of pollution events, (c) gathering new geomorphologic and

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