The paper provides a developed method that allows to predict a change in the frame alignment loss probability when using the unstructured circuit emulation services in mobile backhaul networks based on the bit-error monitoring. This method allows to determine the moments of exceeding the threshold value by frame alignment loss probability for any technically possible number of TDM cycles, encapsulated in an Ethernet frame. The fragments of dependences of the frame alignment loss probability on the bit error value with different values of the number of TDM cycles, encapsulated in an Ethernet frame, produced using the developed model were shown. It was shown that large threshold values of frame alignment loss probability correspond to the large values of the number of TDM cycles, encapsulated in an Ethernet frame. With the increase in the number of TDM cycles, encapsulated in an Ethernet frame, the probability that frame alignment loss probability exceeds its threshold value grows, which is undesirable. The developed method allows to decide on the possibility to increase the communication channel utilization by increasing the number of TDM cycles, encapsulated in an Ethernet frame, based on data of forecasting changes in the frame alignment loss probability.
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