Cigarette Tax Research Articles

The potential distributional health and financial benefits of increased tobacco taxes in Ethiopia: Findings from a modeling study

Ethiopia raised taxes on tobacco products in early 2020, increasing the overall price of the typical pack of cigarettes by about 67%. We quantify the potential impacts of Ethiopia's tobacco tax hike on various outcomes—life years, tax revenues, cigarette expenditures and catastrophic health expenditures (CHE). Using parameters like price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and smoking prevalence in Ethiopia from the existing literature and secondary data sources, we model the potential implications of the reform at the population level and for different wealth quintiles. We focus only on men since a small proportion of Ethiopian women smoke. Results indicate that Ethiopia's tax hike could induce a significant proportion of current smokers to quit smoking and thereby save almost eight million years of life in the current population. The reform is also likely to increase tax revenues by USD26 million in the first year after its introduction. The richest quintile will bear the greatest share of this higher tax burden and the poorest will bear the least. Additionally, deaths due to the main diseases associated with smoking will fall. This is expected to avert up to 173,000 CHE cases due to the out-of-pocket costs that would have been incurred in obtaining medical treatment. This analysis highlights that cigarette tax hikes in countries that have low smoking prevalence can reduce smoking even further, and thereby protect against the future health and financial costs of smoking. Importantly, the effects of these policies can be progressive across the income spectrum.

The introduction of tobacco excise taxation in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: a step in the right direction of advancing public health

BackgroundThe Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries relied, until recently, solely on import duties for tobacco products. The agreement for the introduction of an excise and value added tax (VAT) in 2016 and 2017, respectively, in most GCC countries, was a major breakthrough for public health. There is, however, ample room for improvement.MethodsThe study examines the outcomes of tax reforms, for both public health and public finances, based on the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations and best practices worldwide. Tax simulations were performed using the WHO TaXSiM model. The study is based on data from Saudi Arabia, the only GCC country for which sufficient data existed.ResultsWe recommend a stepwise tax reform, which involves increasing the current ad valorem excise tax rate, phasing out import duties keeping total tax share constant and introducing a minimum excise, and finally switching to a revenue-neutral specific excise. Specific excises must be adjusted for inflation and income increases. If implemented, cigarette tax reform simulations show that the recommended reforms would lead to a higher than 50% increase in cigarette prices, 16% reduction in cigarette sales and almost 50% increase in total cigarette tax revenue. A significant number of cigarette-related deaths would be averted.ConclusionsThe recommended tax reforms are expected to lead to significant improvements in both public health and tobacco tax revenues. Our results provide useful insights that are of relevance to the whole GGC region. The effectiveness of the reforms, however, requires a strong tax and customs administration, including the establishment of a good database to monitor and advance public health.

Methods of the 2020 (Wave 1) International Tobacco Control (ITC) Korea Survey.

This article presents methods used in the 2020 International TC Korea Wave 1 (KRA1) Survey. To date, three cohorts of Korean respondents have participated in the larger ITC Korea Project (cohort 1: 2005–2014, cohort 2: 2016, and cohort 3: 2020–present). The overall objectives of the ITC KRA1 Survey were to examine the use of cigarettes, heated tobacco products (HTPs), e-cigarettes (ECs); whether HTPs might help smokers quit; and the effectiveness of tobacco control policies, such as large graphic warnings, high cigarette taxes, and smoking bans in public places. The KRA1 Survey measures were identical or functionally similar to those of the ITC Japan Survey and, to a lesser extent, those of other ITC countries. Key measures assessed sociodemographic characteristics of respondents; the use of combustible cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and heated tobacco products; and measures assessing policies of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, including price and tax (Article 6), smoke-free laws (Article 8), health warnings (Article 11), education, communication and public awareness (Article 12), advertising, promotion, and sponsorship restrictions (Article 13), and support for cessation (Article 14). Adult tobacco and/or nicotine users aged ≥19 years in South Korea were recruited by a commercial survey firm from its online panel. Overall, 4794 respondents completed the KRA1 Survey. The cooperation rate was 97.4% and the response rate was 15.2%. The cohort design permits assessment of transitions in products used among users in South Korea and evaluations of the impact of policies on tobacco and/or nicotine products used and transitions in use.

The 2019 economic cost of smoking-attributable diseases in Indonesia

BackgroundIn 2019, ever-smoking prevalence among adults in Indonesia was 32.8%, which may correlate with a high burden on the economy. Therefore, there is an urgent need to estimate the economic...

Decomposition and Comparative Analysis of the Prevalence of and Factors Associated With Smoking Between the Rural and Urban Elderly Population in China: A National Cross-Sectional Study.

This study aimed to compare and analyse the differences in smoking prevalence, and knowledge, attitudes, and factors associated with smoking between the rural and urban elderly population in China. In total, 6,966 participants aged 60 and above were included in this study, which assessed their smoking-related knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions toward tobacco control. The Chi-square test and logistic regression model were used for statistical analysis, and the Fairlie model was used for decomposition analysis. The overall prevalence of smoking was 25.6%; the rate was much higher in men than in women (overall: OR = 26.234; urban: OR = 31.260; rural: OR = 23.889). The rate of correct responses to all questions on smoking problems was significantly higher among the urban elderly than the rural elderly. Further, 64.18% of the participants supported printing photos of the health hazards of smoking on the cover of cigarette packs, and the rural elderly were more supportive of this. Moreover, only 36.52% of the participants supported increasing taxation and retail price of cigarettes; the urban elderly showed more support for this. Rules about smoking at home also played an important role, especially for families where smoking was not allowed at home, but with exceptions to the rule; however, this factor was only meaningful in urban families (urban: OR = 0.117). Through the Fairlie decomposition analysis, gender (-1.62%), age (-2.03%), region (13.68%), knowing about e-cigarettes (5.17%), rules about smoking at home (3.95%), and smoking-related knowledge scores (42.85%) were found to be associated with rural-urban disparities. This study focused on the differences in smoking between urban and rural areas in China. Smoking among the urban elderly was significantly less prevalent compared with the rural population. Factors including education, region, and smoking-related knowledge need to be addressed to reduce the gap between urban and rural health hazards in China.

Cigarette taxation and neonatal and infant mortality: A longitudinal analysis of 159 countries.

Previous studies on the associations between cigarette taxes and infant survival have all been in high-income countries and did not examine the relative benefits of different taxation levels and structures. We evaluated longitudinal associations of cigarette taxes with neonatal and infant mortality globally. We applied country-level panel regressions using 2008-2018 annual mortality and biennial WHO tobacco taxation data. Complete data was available for 159 countries. Outcomes were neonatal and infant mortality. We conducted analyses by type of taxes (i.e. specific cigarette taxes, ad valorem taxes, and other taxes, import duties and VAT) and the income group classification of countries. Covariates included scores for other WHO recommended tobacco control policies, socioeconomic, health-care, and air quality measures. Secondary analyses investigated the associations between cigarette tax and cigarette consumption. We found that a 10 percentage-point increase in total cigarette tax as a percentage of the retail price was associated with a 2.6% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.9% to 3.2%) decrease in neonatal mortality and a 1.9% (95% CI: 1.3% to 2.6%) decrease in infant mortality globally. Estimates were similar for both excise and ad valorem taxes. We estimated that 231,220 (95% CI: 152,658 to 307,655) infant deaths could have been averted in 2018 if all countries had total cigarette tax at least 75%. 99.2% of these averted deaths would have been in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The secondary analysis supported causal interpretation of results by finding that a 10 percentage-point increase in taxes was associated with a reduction of 94.6 (95% CI: 32.7 to 156.5) in annual cigarette consumption per capita. Although causal inference is precarious due to the quasi-experimental design, we used a robust analytical approach and focused on within-country changes. Limitations include an inability to include data on roll-your-own tobacco, other forms of tobacco use, and reliance on taxation data only for the cigarette brands most sold in each country. In line with limited existing evidence conducted in HICs, we found that raising taxes on tobacco was associated with a reduction in neonatal and infant mortality globally. Implementing recommended levels of taxation in LMICs should be a priority since this is where the lowest levels of taxation and the largest potential infant mortality benefits exist.

Motor Vehicle Tax Contribution to Regional Original Income in Banten Province

This study aimed to investigate the contribution of motor vehicle tax to regional original income (PAD) in Banten Province. Income is an important element in the implementation of development activities. In each region, development activities have been increasing from year to year and this is associated with large costs, which therefore encourages an increase in PAD. One of the sources of PAD is motor vehicle tax, which is one of the local tax forms regulated by Law no. 28 of 2009 concerning regional taxes and levies chapter II, part one, article 2. This law designates that regional taxes are the authority of the province and consist of 1. motorized vehicle transfer fees, 2. motorized vehicle taxes, 3. surface water tax, 4. motor vehicle fuel tax, and 5. cigarette tax. Out of these five types of regional taxes, the motor vehicle tax is the most dominant contributor to regional income each year in Banten Province.
 Keywords: motor vehicle tax, regional original income, regional tax

Tax Salience and Cyclical Asymmetry in Tax Rate Adjustments: Testing the Indirect Tax Hypothesis

In this paper, we explore the hypothesis that politicians prefer using direct taxes with relatively high salience for tax cuts during booms, while they prefer using indirect taxes with relatively low salience for tax increases during recessions. Using a panel data set of U.S. states from 1992 to 2014, we analyzed how cyclical fluctuations in resource availability affect the statutory rates of five major state taxes: general sales tax, personal income tax, corporate income tax, and two excise taxes (gasoline and cigarette taxes). Our results suggest that cyclical improvements in resource availability during booms lead to reductions in personal income tax rates, whereas cyclical deteriorations in resource availability during recessions result in increases in general sales tax rates.

MENGUJI KUALITAS PRODUK, HARGA, DAN CITRA MEREK TERHADAP KEPUTUSAN PEMBELIAN ROKOK ELEKTRIK DI SOLORAYA

The goal of this research is to find and analyze how the effect of product quality, price, and brand image on decisions in the purchase of e-cigarettes in Soloraya. Since the legality of e-cigarettes in Indonesia and the increasing cigarette tax led to a change in smoking style, further increasing the use of e-cigarettes. The data analysis in this study uses multiple linear regression testing with data processing conducted with statisticalipackage foriSocial Sciencei (SPSS) program tool version 21. Quantitative approaches are the ones used in this research. The sample technique in this study is non-probability sampling with purposive sampling method with a sample size of 100 e-cigarette users in Soloraya. The results of the study stated that the quality of the product individually had an insignificant positive influence on purchasing decisions. Individual price variables have a significant positive influence on purchasing decisions. Individual brand image is positively correlated and insignificant to purchasing decisions. Product quality, price, and brand image, simultaneously contribute to purchasing decisions.Keywords: product quality; price;brand image, and purchasing desicions

Trends in Use of Conventional Cigarettes, E-cigarettes, and Marijuana in Pregnancy and Impact of Health Policy.

The substance use policy context continues to evolve. As tobacco control policies have become more restrictive, marijuana legalization has increased access to marijuana. Data suggest that prenatal conventional cigarette use is declining, while e-cigarette and marijuana use are increasing among persons preconception, prenatally, and postpartum. Policy evaluations have found that increasing cigarette taxes reduces prenatal smoking and improves birth outcomes; however, there have been few studies of e-cigarette policies or marijuana legalization on prenatal use or birth outcomes. It is important for clinicians to screen for prenatal substance use, as recommended by American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), and understand how policies influence use among their patients.

Harm reduction for smokers with little to no quit interest: can tobacco policies encourage switching to e-cigarettes?

ObjectiveA pressing tobacco policy concern is how to help smokers who have little interest in quitting cigarettes, a group that often suffers severe health consequences. By switching from cigarettes to...

Cigarette Taxes, Smoking, and Health in the Long Run

Medical experts have argued forcefully that using cigarettes harms health, prompting the adoption of myriad anti-smoking policies. The association between smoking and mortality may, however, be driven by unobserved factors, making it difficult to discern the underlying long-term causal relationship. In this study, we explore the effects of cigarette taxes experienced as a teenager, which are arguably exogenous, on adult smoking participation and mortality. A one-dollar increase in teenage cigarette taxes is associated with an 8 percent reduction in adult smoking participation and a 6 percent reduction in mortality. Mortality effects are most pronounced for heart disease and lung cancer.

Re-Exploring the Early Relationship between Teenage Cigarette and E-Cigarette Use Using Price and Tax Changes

In 2016, the Surgeon General used longitudinal cohort studies to conclude that youth e-cigarette use is strongly associated with cigarette use. We re-evaluate data from the period of time before the writing of the Surgeon General report, using quasi-experimental methods, and reach the opposite conclusion. We study contemporaneous and intertemporal effects of e-cigarette and cigarette price and tax changes. Our price variation comes from 35,000 retailers participating in the Nielsen Retail Scanner data system. We match price and tax variation to survey data on current use of e-cigarettes and cigarettes for over 94,000 students between grades 6 to 12 in the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) for years 2011 to 2015. We find evidence that e-cigarettes and cigarettes are same-period economic substitutes. Coefficient estimates (while imprecisely estimated) also suggest potentially large positive effects of past e-cigarette prices on current cigarette use, indicating inter-temporal economic substitution. Our findings raise doubts about the conclusion of government-sponsored reports that e-cigarettes and cigarettes are strongly positively associated. We recommend revisiting and possibly amending this conclusion.

Optimal Taxation of Cigarettes and E Cigarettes: Principles For Taxing Reduced-Harm Tobacco Products

Optimal Taxation of Cigarettes and E Cigarettes: Principles For Taxing Reduced-Harm Tobacco Products

The Impact of Tax and Price Reforms on Companies’ Prices in A Complex Cigarette Tax System

The Impact of Tax and Price Reforms on Companies’ Prices in A Complex Cigarette Tax System

Do State Tobacco 21 Laws Work?

Tobacco 21 (T-21) laws prohibit the sale of tobacco products to individuals under age 21. This study is the first to comprehensively examine the impacts of statewide T-21 laws on youth tobacco consumption, including spillovers to minor teens. Using data from the 2009-2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS) and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the enactment of a statewide T-21 law was associated with a 2.5 to 4.0 percentage-point decline in smoking participation among 18-to-20-year-olds. A causal interpretation of our estimates is supported by event-study analyses and falsification tests for young adults ages 21 and older. Next, using data from the 2009-2019 State Youth Risky Behavior Surveys (YRBS), we find that statewide T-21 laws reduced tobacco cigarette and electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) consumption among 18-year-old high school students. We also find that the public health benefits of T-21 laws extend to 16-to-17-year-olds, a group that relies heavily on the “social market” — including 18-year-old peers — to access tobacco. We conclude increasing the minimum legal purchasing age for tobacco to 21 appears to be a more effective current policy strategy to deter youth smoking than raising cigarette taxes. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

The Long-Term Impacts of Cigarette Taxes on Smoking

The Long-Term Impacts of Cigarette Taxes on Smoking

Modelling the Reduction in Cancer Incidence After Variations in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption in Colombia in the Period 2016-2050.

To evaluate the potential impact of tobacco reduction on future cancer incidence in Colombia. Colombia has implemented multiple actions that led to reducing smoking prevalence in recent years. However, the numbers of cancer cases and deaths associated with smoking exposure remain high highlighting the importance of maintaining efforts to reduce and keep smoking prevalence low. We performed a theoretical modeling exercise, projecting expected changes in the incidence of four cancers between 2016 and 2050 under two simulated scenarios of smoking reduction. A cumulative decline of 10% in the prevalence of smoking, a percentage in line with current cigarette taxation policies, will decrease cancer incidence in 2050 by 3.2%, .5%, .2% and .2% of lung, liver, cervical and colorectal cancer incidence, respectively. Complete elimination of tobacco consumption will reduce these by 39.1%, 6.1%, 2.2% and 2.3% respectively, by 2050. These results highlight the importance of continuity and reinforcement of current tobacco control programs, including increasing taxation, to further reduce the prevalence of tobacco smoking and reduce cancer cases and deaths in the coming decades.

Tax incidence of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) in the USA

BackgroundA growing number of states or jurisdictions in the USA have imposed excise taxes on electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS). However, there is no consensus on how best to tax...

Trends in cigarette affordability and taxation in nine Balkan countries

Trends in cigarette affordability and taxation in nine Balkan countries