Modelling the Reduction in Cancer Incidence After Variations in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption in Colombia in the Period 2016-2050.

Abstract

To evaluate the potential impact of tobacco reduction on future cancer incidence in Colombia. Colombia has implemented multiple actions that led to reducing smoking prevalence in recent years. However, the numbers of cancer cases and deaths associated with smoking exposure remain high highlighting the importance of maintaining efforts to reduce and keep smoking prevalence low. We performed a theoretical modeling exercise, projecting expected changes in the incidence of four cancers between 2016 and 2050 under two simulated scenarios of smoking reduction. A cumulative decline of 10% in the prevalence of smoking, a percentage in line with current cigarette taxation policies, will decrease cancer incidence in 2050 by 3.2%, .5%, .2% and .2% of lung, liver, cervical and colorectal cancer incidence, respectively. Complete elimination of tobacco consumption will reduce these by 39.1%, 6.1%, 2.2% and 2.3% respectively, by 2050. These results highlight the importance of continuity and reinforcement of current tobacco control programs, including increasing taxation, to further reduce the prevalence of tobacco smoking and reduce cancer cases and deaths in the coming decades.