Cigarette Tax Research Articles

The Experimental Tobacco Marketplace: Demand and Substitutability as a Function of Cigarette Taxes and e-Liquid Subsidies.

The experimental tobacco marketplace (ETM) approximates real-world situations by estimating the effects of several, concurrently available products and policies on budgeted purchasing. Although the effects of increasing cigarette price on potentially less harmful substitutability are well documented, the effects of other, nuanced pricing policies remain speculative. This study used the ETM as a tool to assess the effects of two pricing policies, conventional cigarette taxation and e-liquid subsidization, on demand and substitutability. During sampling periods, participants were provided 2-day samples of 24 mg/mL e-liquid, after which ETM purchase sessions occurred. Across two ETM sessions, conventional cigarettes were taxed or e-liquid was subsidized in combination with increasing cigarette price. The other four available products were always price constant and not taxed or subsidized. E-liquid functioned as a substitute for conventional cigarettes across all conditions. Increasing cigarette taxation and e-liquid subsidization increased the number of participants for which e-liquid functioned as a substitute. Cigarette taxation decreased cigarette demand, by decreasing demand intensity, and marginally increased the initial intensity of e-liquid substitution, but did not affect the functions' slopes (substitutability). E-liquid subsidization resulted in large increases in the initial intensity of e-liquid substitution, but did not affect e-liquid substitutability nor cigarette demand. 24 mg/mL e-cigarette e-liquid was the only product to significantly substitute for cigarettes in at least one condition throughout the experiment; it functioned as a significant substitute throughout all four tax and all four subsidy conditions. Increasing cigarette taxes decreased cigarette demand through decreases in demand intensity but did not affect e-cigarette substitution. Increasing e-liquid subsidies increased e-liquid initial intensity of substitution but did not affect cigarette demand. This study extended research on the behavioral economics of conventional cigarette demand and e-liquid substitutability in a complex marketplace. The results suggest that the most efficacious method to decrease conventional cigarette purchasing and increase e-liquid purchasing may involve greatly increasing cigarette taxes while also increasing the value of e-liquid through potentially less harmful product subsidization or differential taxation.

Cigarette prices in a complex cigarette tax system: empirical evidence from Indonesia

BackgroundThe complex cigarette tax system in Indonesia has created the opportunity for cigarette producers to avoid tax, which results in affordable cigarette prices. In addition to increasing cigarette tax every...

Association of Tobacco Control Policies With Youth Smoking Onset in Chile

Tobacco smoking is still responsible for more than 6 million preventable deaths annually, most of which occur in low- and middle-income countries. South American countries, Chile in particular, endure some of the highest cigarette smoking prevalence rates globally. Despite the lack of any meaningful increases in cigarette taxes (the most effective tobacco control measure) between 1999 and 2014, cigarette prices in Chile increased sharply almost entirely driven by British American Tobacco (BAT). To examine the associations between cigarette prices and nonprice tobacco control policies targeted at youth introduced in 2006 (Law 20105) and smoking onset among Chilean youths. This study used data from 8 waves of a large national school survey of urban communities in Chile conducted between October and December in 2001, 2003, 2015, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015 and discrete-time hazard models. Data analysis was performed from May 2017 to January 2019. Prices, advertising, and retail restrictions. Smoking onset (the transition between never smoking and smoking) in youth. In this study of 181 624 survey respondents in 8751 Chilean secondary schools, higher prices (own-price elasticity [percentage change in quantity demanded in response to a 1% change in price], -0.40; 95% CI, -0.45 to -0.36) and the tobacco control policies enacted in 2006 (hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.85) were associated with lower hazards of starting smoking. The study found that an increase in real prices of 58.6% and the introduction of Law 20105 were associated with similar lower hazards of starting smoking (hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.85); in comparison, between 1999 and 2017, inflation-adjusted cigarette prices increased by 206%. The findings suggest that higher prices initiated by BAT and the tobacco control policies enacted by the Ministry of Health in 2006 were associated with lower hazards of starting smoking in Chilean youth. Large cigarette tax increases may be a strategy that can be used to help reduce smoking among youths in Chile.

Clean indoor air laws, cigarette excise taxes, and smoking: Results from the current population survey-tobacco use supplement, 2003–2011

There was an increase in the number and coverage of state and local clean indoor air laws in the US during the past fifteen years. These laws coincided with increases in federal, state, and local cigarette excise taxes. In light of these changes, the objective of this study was to examine the association between clean indoor air laws, cigarette excise taxes and smoking patterns between 2003 and 2011. Using data on 62,165 adult participants in the 2003 and 2010/2011 Current Population Survey-Tobacco Use Supplement who reported smoking cigarettes in the past year, we examined the association of state and county workplace, bar, and restaurant clean indoor air laws and cigarette excise taxes with quitting and current every-day smoking. Between 2003 and 2011, quitting increased and daily smoking among those who continued to smoke decreased significantly. Participants living in states and counties with higher excise taxes and more comprehensive clean indoor air laws had a higher likelihood of quitting and lower likelihood of everyday smoking. Based on the assumption of no uncontrolled confounding, changes in taxes and laws accounted for 64.8% of the increase in smoking cessation and all of the reduction in everyday smoking. Implementation of state and county-level clean indoor air laws and cigarette taxes appears to have achieved the intended goal of encouraging smokers to either quit or reduce their frequency of smoking.

Smoke signals: monitoring illicit cigarettes and smoking behaviour in Colombia to support tobacco taxes

BackgroundA street cross-sectional survey in 2016 with a representative sample of 1697 smokers in five Colombian cities was used to estimate the penetration of illicit cigarettes (PIC). The first wave...

PNS69 FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH INITIATION OF E-CIGARETTE AMONG MIDDLE SCHOOL VS. HIGH SCHOOL CHILDREN

The prevalence of e-cigarettes among American youth has drastically increased in the past decade. It is a growing public health concern as the early exposure to nicotine via e-cigarettes increases subsequent cigarette smoking. This study examined factors associated with early initiation of e-cigarette smoking among youth. Children (age<18) participated in the 2017 National Youth Tobacco Survey who reported using e-cigarettes the first time within a 1-year period were included. Early initiation was defined as those who started using e-cigarettes in a middle school (11-13 years) age and late initiation was those who started in a high school (14-17 years) age. Potential predictors for early initiation included state-level factors (cigarette tax rates, marijuana legalization), cues to action (curiosity towards e-cigarette, friends or family being smokers, TV or movie stars being smokers, easy access, flavors, advertisements), perceived susceptibility (using any other tobacco product(s)), perceived benefits (trying to quit tobacco, relative costs, relative harm). Multi-variable logistic regression with backward selection was performed to retain the most significant predictors of early initiation of e-cigarettes. A total of 358 and 1,496 were identified as early and late initiators of e-cigarettes. Those who tried to quit tobacco (OR=2.49, 95%CI=1.160-5.341), lived with e-cigarette smokers (OR=2.43, 95%CI=1.557-3.799) and cigarettes smokers (OR=1.67, 95%CI=1.078-2.596) were more likely to start e-cigarettes early. Home environment has a major impact on whether children will become e-cigarette smokers. It is alarming that middle school children reported starting e-cigarettes in order to quit tobacco smoking as there is limited evidence of using e-cigarettes as smoking cessation aid. Dual use of e-cigarettes and cigarettes may extend the nicotine addiction which will pose a greater health risk when exposed in early age. Schools should consider promoting a youth e-cigarette prevention campaign to curb the epidemic of e-cigarettes in early school age children.

Little filtered cigars: US sales, flavours, package sizes and prices

ObjectiveAt least four varieties of little filtered cigars (LFCs) violate the US prohibition on flavoured cigarettes other than menthol. This study characterises the sales of prohibited products and other LFCs...

Analysis of Gender Differences in the Impact of Taxation and Taxation Structure on Cigarette Consumption in 17 ITC Countries.

Although increasing taxes has been established as the most effective tobacco control policy, it is not clear whether these policies reduce cigarette consumption equally among women and men. In this study, we examine whether the association between taxation/taxation structure and cigarette consumption differs by gender. The data is from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation (ITC) Projects in 17 countries. Cigarette consumption was measured by gender for each ITC country. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were employed to investigate gender differences in the association between cigarette consumption and tax structures, while controlling for time-variant demographic characteristics such as unemployment rates, proportions of adults, and percent of female population. Tiered tax structures are associated with higher cigarette consumption among both males and females. Female smokers are more responsive to an average tax increase than male smokers. Among males, higher ad valorem share in excise taxes is associated with lower cigarette consumption, but it is not the case for females. Females may not be as responsive to the prices raised by ad valorem taxes, despite being responsive to average taxes, suggesting that smokers by gender may face different prices.

The impact of cigarette tax increases on men’s smoking behavior: Evidence from a 2015 cigarette tax hike in South Korea

This study examines whether a 114% hike in the cigarette tax in South Korea in 2015 deterred men’s smoking behavior including: smoking status in the present year, average number of cigarettes per day, willingness to quit smoking within six months, and smoking status change over two years. Using the Korea Welfare Panel Study (KOWEPS) which is large-scale panel data, this paper finds that smoking rates dropped significantly in the post-tax period as supported in other papers. In further examination of people’s smoking status change over two years, this paper finds that a significant number of smokers became nonsmokers after the tax increase, while the number of new smokers became smaller. It is also found that continuous smokers smoked fewer cigarettes in the post-tax period. Right after the tax hike, people’s willingness to quit smoking increased in 2015, but this did not result in a further decline in smoking rates in the following year. The deterrent impact in 2015 was observed with a similar degree among various expenditure, age and regional groups.

Thirty-eight-year trends of educational differences in smoking in Finland

ObjectivesSmoking is declining, but it is unevenly distributed among population groups. Our aim was to examine the socio-economic differences in smoking during 1978–2016 in Finland, a country with a history of strict tobacco control policy.MethodsAnnual population-based random sample data of 25–64-year-olds from 1978 to 2016 (N = 104,315) were used. Response rate varied between 84 and 40%. In addition to logistic regression analysis, absolute and relative educational differences in smoking were examined.ResultsSmoking was more prevalent among the less educated but declined in all educational groups during the study period. Both absolute and relative differences in smoking between the less and highly educated were larger at the end of the study period than at the beginning. Cigarette price seemed to have a larger effect on the smoking among the less educated.ConclusionsSocio-economic differences in smoking among the Finnish adult population have increased since the 1970s until 2016. Further actions are needed, especially focusing on lower socio-economic positions, to tackle inequalities in health. They should include support for smoking cessation and larger cigarette tax increases.

Cigarette Trafficking and Tax Parity: Results of a Natural Tax Experiment

Cigarette Trafficking and Tax Parity: Results of a Natural Tax Experiment

Does cigarette demand respond to price increases in Uganda? Price elasticity estimates using the Uganda National Panel Survey and Deaton’s method

ObjectiveTo provide the first published estimates of the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes in Uganda and thereby contribute to growing the evidence base of the likely impact of excise...

Gender Perspective on Drivers of Cigarette Smoking: Two Part Model Approach

An estimated 2.5 million Kenyans which is over 11 percent of the country’s adult population currently use tobacco thus informing the need to take strong action to reduce tobacco use. Therefore, this study conducted a gender analysis on drivers of cigarette smoking in Kenya. The study heavily relied on data from Kenya Global Adult Tobacco Survey 2014. Specifically, two-part model was used to establish the effect of demographic and psychosocial drivers on both smoking participation and intensity among men and women. The study found that price of cigarette had an insignificant effect on men participation in smoking while age and years spent in education had a significant and negative effect on women smoking participation. Smoking rules inside home had a negative effect on women participation in smoking while smoking policy at indoor work place had a negative and significant effect on men smoking participation. Overally, cigarette tax adjustment had a negative and significant effect on both men and women participation in smoking. Work status had a negative and very significant effect on both men and women smoking intensity. The findings, therefore, confirmed the significant effect of smoking policy and cigarette tax adjustment on both smoking participation and smoking intensity among men and women.

Smoking related outcomes before and after implementation of tobacco-free grounds in residential substance use disorder treatment programs

BackgroundThis study examined the impact of a tobacco-free grounds (TFG) policy and the California $2.00/pack tobacco tax increase on tobacco use among individuals in residential substance use disorder (SUD) treatment. MethodsWe conducted three cross-sectional surveys of clients enrolled in three residential SUD treatment programs. Wave 1 (Pre-TFG) included 190 clients, wave 2 (post-TFG and pre-tax increase) included 200 clients, and wave 3 (post-tax increase) included 201 clients. Demographic and tobacco-use characteristics were first compared between waves using bivariate comparisons. Regression models were used to compare each outcome with survey wave as the predictor, while adjusting for demographic characteristics and nesting of participants within programs. ResultsOdds of clients being current smokers was lower (AOR = 0.43, 95%CI = 0.30,0.60) after implementation of TFG compared to baseline. Adjusted mean ratio (AMR) for cigarettes per day was lower post-TFG compared to baseline (AMR = 0.70, CI = 0.59, 0.83). There were no differences, across waves, in tobacco-related knowledge, attitudes, or services received by program clients, or use of nicotine replacement therapy. Increased cigarette taxation was not associated with reductions in client smoking. ConclusionImplementation of a TFG policy was associated with a lower prevalence of client smoking among individuals in residential SUD treatment. Increased state cigarette excise taxes were not associated with a further reduction in client smoking in the presence of TFG policies, though this may have been confounded by relaxing of the TFG policy. SUD treatment programs should promote TFG policies and increase tobacco cessation services for clients.

A decade of cigarette taxation in Bangladesh: lessons learnt for tobacco control.

Bangladesh has achieved a high share of tax in the price of cigarettes (greater than the 75% benchmark), but has not achieved the expected health benefits from reduction in cigarette consumption. In this paper we explore why cigarette taxation has not succeeded in reducing cigarette smoking in Bangladesh. Using government records over 2006–2017, we link trends in tax-paid cigarette sales to cigarette excise tax structure and changes in cigarette taxes and prices. We analysed data on smoking prevalence from Bangladesh Global Adult Tobacco Surveys to study consumption of different tobacco products in 2009 and 2017. Drawing on annual reports from tobacco manufacturers and other literature, we examine demand- and supply-side factors in the cigarette market. In addition to a growing affordability of cigarettes, three factors appear to have undermined the effectiveness of tax and price increases in reducing cigarette consumption in Bangladesh. First, the multitiered excise tax structure widened the price differential between brands and incentivized downward substitution by smokers from higher-price to lower-price cigarettes. Second, income growth and shifting preferences of smokers for better quality products encouraged upward substitution from hand-rolled local cigarettes (bidi) to machine-made low-price cigarettes. Third, the tobacco industry’s market expansion and differential pricing strategy changed the relative price to keep low-price cigarettes inexpensive. A high tax share alone may prove inadequate as a barometer of effective tobacco taxation in lower-middle income countries, particularly where the tobacco tax structure is complex, tobacco products prices are relatively low, and the affordability of tobacco products is increasing.

Price Isn’t Everything: Behavioral Response around Changes in Sin Taxes

Taxes change behavior. But how does this change arise? In traditional economic models, change is achieved through the price channel: assuming all else is held constant, taxes increase prices and thus decrease demand. However, the assumption that all else is held constant may be violated in the course of a legal change, in part because the process by which laws are changed often involves the provision of information, attempts at persuasion, and the deployment of alternative dissuasive tools. We examine violations of this assumption in a particular policy domain: discouraging smoking with cigarette taxes. We document a marked increase in related media coverage, lobbying efforts, place-based smoking restrictions, and anti-smoking appropriations in the time period surrounding a tax law change. The intensity of these factors is directly associated with decreases in cigarette consumption in a manner that could be confused with price effects. Our results suggest that price effects may have a surprisingly small role in the behavioral response that occurs around tax law changes.

One size fits all? Disentangling the effects of tobacco taxes, laws, and control spending on adult subgroups in the United States

ABSTRACTBackground: To determine the relative impact of each of the 3 state-level tobacco control policies (cigarette taxation, tobacco control spending, and smoke-free air [SFA] laws) on adult smoking rate overall and separately for adult subgroups in the United States. Methods: A difference-in-differences analysis was conducted with generalized propensity scores. State-level policies were merged with the individual-level Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System in 1995–2009. Results: State cigarette taxation was the only policy that significantly impacted smoking among the general adult population, with a 1-standard deviation increase in taxes (i.e., $0.68 in constant 2014 dollars) lowering the adult smoking rate by about a quarter of a percentage point. The taxation impact was consistent, regardless of the presence of, or interactions with, other policies. Taxation was also the only policy that significantly reduced smoking for some adult subgroups, including females, non-Hispanic whites, adults aged 51 or older, and adults with more than a high school education. However, other adult subgroups responded to the other 2 types of policies, either by mediating the taxation effect or by reducing smoking independently. Specifically, tobacco control spending reduced smoking among young adults (ages 18–25 years) and Hispanics. SFA laws affected smoking among men, young adults, non-Hispanic blacks, and Hispanics. Conclusions: State cigarette taxation is the single most important policy for reducing smoking among the general adult population. However, adult subgroups' reactions to taxes are diverse and mediated by tobacco control spending and SFA laws.

The Effects of Cigarette Taxation on Consumption Behavior of Different Income Groups

The Effects of Cigarette Taxation on Consumption Behavior of Different Income Groups

IPTEKS TARGET DAN REALISASI PAJAK DAERAH DI DINAS PENDAPATAN DAERAH PROVINSI SULAWESI UTARA

This study aims to determine the achievement of regional tax revenues and the percentage of realization of local tax revenues in the Regional Revenue Service of North Sulawesi Province in 2017-2018, which consists of Motor Vehicle Taxes, Motor Vehicle Name Transfer Fees, Surface Water Taxes, Vehicle Fuel Taxes Motorized, Cigarette Tax, Public Service Retribution, Service Service Retribution, and Specific License Licensing The results of this study indicate that the target of regional tax revenue in the North Sulawesi Provincial Revenue Service decreased in 2018 and the realization percentage of each type of regional tax revenue increased in January 2017 and November 2017. From that total it can be concluded that the increase in realization of local tax revenues in the Regional Revenue Service is able to pursue the tax deposit target in 2017.Keywords: Local Taxes, Target and Realization

US state cigarette tax increases and smoke-free legislation in relation to cigarette expenditure across household socio-economic circumstances: a quasi-experimental study.

While research has focused on outcomes of tobacco control policies, less is known about the mechanisms by which policies may affect tobacco use. We estimated the associations of changes in cigarette taxes and smoke-free legislation with (1) any household cigarette expenditure and (2) the level of household expenditure on cigarettes, as well as (3) tested interactions with socio-economic circumstances. Difference-in-differences regression models to estimate the associations between changes in US state cigarette taxes and smoke-free legislation with changes in household expenditure on cigarettes. Forty US states and District of Columbia. From annual, cross-sectional surveys (with a longitudinal component) between 2000 and 2014, 128 138 households interviewed quarterly in the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Dependent measures included any household cigarette expenditure, expenditure in real dollars and budget share of cigarette expenditure. Policy measures included state cigarette taxes and 100% smoke-free legislation. Covariates included respondent age, race/ethnicity, sex; household education; poverty level; family structure; and number of children and adults. Every $1.00 cigarette tax increase was associated with a 1.5 percentage point (-0.028, -0.002) reduction in any cigarette expenditure and an increase of 0.1% (0.1%, 0.1%) budget share and $10.11 ($8.38, $11.84) absolute expenditure. The association with absolute expenditure was stronger among smoking households above poverty level ($10.73; $8.94, $12.51) than below ($4.72; $2.37, $7.07). The enactment of smoke-free legislation was associated with $2.33 (-$4.56, -$0.10) less expenditure, but not with any expenditure (0.1%; -1.6%, 1.8%) or budget share (-0.1%; -0.1%, 0.1%). The association with absolute expenditure was stronger among households above poverty level (-$2.62; -$4.95, -$0.29) than below (-$0.34; -$4.27, $3.58) CONCLUSION: Cigarette tax increases in the United States between 2000 and 2014 may have reduced smoking prevalence due to an absolute and relative increase in household tobacco expenditure while smoke-free policies appear to have led to a reduction in expenditure. Although tax increases had a stronger impact on absolute expenditure among households above the poverty level, impact on relative expenditure was similar, and consequences for socio-economic inequalities in smoking will vary based on the broader financial situation of households.