Chinese Threat Research Articles

Broadcasting as an Instrument of Public Diplomacy in the PRC in the Era of COVID-19 (on the Example of the Xinhua News Agency)

Over the past few years, the PRC has been actively striving for world leadership, but China's strengthening of its positions in the international arena is hindered by the fear of the «Chinese threat» and the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to establish itself as a peaceful and responsible participant in international relations, China has used the soft power of public diplomacy. The «soft power» of public diplomacy aims at dialogue with foreign public opinion, the establishment of trusting relationships that are the key to international cooperation, promotion of national interests and values that is best represented by international media. One of the instruments of public diplomacy and Chinese «soft» influence has become the Xinhua News Agency, which broadcasts to an international audience. Xinhua News Agency is today the leading provider of online news content in the PRC. In the course of the research, the author concluded that the activities of Xinhua are not able to improve significantly the positive image of the country. Positioning itself as a party media that performs the ideological and informational functions of a state news agency, Xinhua is not only promotes content about the achievements of the PRC in the political, social and cultural spheres, but also discredits those political forces in the West that China views as hostile. Under these conditions, public diplomacy will certainly turn into ordinary state propaganda, which negatively affects China's international image.

The evolving threat from China

Until recently, there has been a presumption about Chinese state-sponsored threat groups that they are more prolific than sophisticated. There are good reasons for that, given some of their past activities, and it remains true that their levels of operational security can vary. However, direct observation over the past 18 months suggests that Chinese threat groups are now paying more attention to the operational security and technical sophistication of their intrusion activity.

Biden’s Administration Policies towards the Middle East: Initial Appraisal and Potential Prospect

In light of the challenges, difficulties, and risks facing the United States, and the inherited pitfalls at the local and global levels, this research aims to examine the credibility of Joe Biden’s foreign policy campaign promises towards the region after one- year in office. The aim is to analyze the U.S. behavior towards the Middle East based on Hans Morgenthau’s approach to the pursuance of the national interest at all cost. The hypothesis is that Biden’s Administration will follow a permanent interest approach towards the Middle East which has been constant over long periods of time. The U.S. policy towards the Arab world has remained remarkably consistent across administrations ever since the discovery of the region’s energy resources. This analysis suggests that the desire to shift U.S. foreign policy emphasis from the troubled Middle East to south Asia[i] is a persisting foreign policy objective under Biden. However, the new focus on Asia Pacific and de-prioritization of the Middle East in U.S. foreign policy does not negate the assumption that the region, due to its geopolitical importance, will continue to enjoy and attract significant U.S. attention. Joe Biden’s Administration has been pragmatic in its approach towards the region abandoning the “American values” of democratization and human rights in pursuance of national interest.[i] The U.S.- UK nuclear submarines deal with Australia is an example of Biden’s administration policy to contain the Chinese threat in South Asia. The announcement on September 24th of the Washington Declaration forming a quadrant military alliance consisting of the U.S., India, Japan and Australia to maintain peace and security in the Indian and Pacific oceans is another manifestation of the U.S. new policy to deter Chinese threat in the south Asia region.

China’s Growing Power Makes Its Youth Hawkish? Evidence from the Chinese Youth’s Attitudes toward the US and Japan

ABSTRACT Changes in relative power between the rising and dominant state have been consistently recognized as a key contributor to international conflicts, as they can lead to convergence within both societies in threat perceptions of each other. In the case of China, a dominant view assumes that China’s increased power leads to wide social support for nationalism, which unifies the Chinese threat perceptions of key rivals such as the US and Japan. Based on a large-scaled survey among China’s elite youth, this study examines the relationship between their perception of China’s power asymmetry and threat with respect to the US and Japan. The findings show that the dominant view has clearly overlooked the divergent voices within the youth, and they also challenge the common assumption that China’s growing power has fostered a generation of youth with unanimous support for more assertive Chinese foreign policy.

ПОСИЛЕННЯ ГЕОПОЛІТИЧНОГО ПОТЕНЦІАЛУ КИТАЮ В УМОВАХ СУЧАСНИХ ВИКЛИКІВ

The article highlights the peculiarities of the development of China's geopolitical potential in the face of modern challenges. It is pointed out that today China is increasing its political, economic and cultural influence in the world. It is noted that China is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, it has become the largest exporter in the world, while also increasing imports. Thus, the average growth of Chinese exports in recent decades has increased 5 times, and the growth of imports – 4.7 times. It is emphasized that in response to China's economic growth in the West and in some Asian countries, including Japan, the concept of the "Chinese threat" has emerged, not always taking into account the interests of other Asian countries. The peculiarities of the current foreign policy course of China are determined, in particular, it is noted that serious attention is still paid to relations with the great powers. Yes, Xi Jin Ping is in active contact with the United States, the European Union and India. Significant emphasis is placed on a balanced foreign policy course. Much attention is paid to the BRICS countries, including Russia, India and South Africa. China is also strengthening relations with developing countries. This is evidenced by Xi Jinping's visit to South Africa and the Caribbean. Much attention is paid to the Russian vector, which is aimed at jointly confronting the United States and NATO. It is emphasized that China's economic and geopolitical growth is also holding back a number of issues that need to be addressed. These are, first of all: incomplete transition to a market economy, excessive state intervention in the economy, in the banking sector, lack of rule of law, violation of human rights and freedoms, high dependence on exports, strong excess credit and growing debt, environmental problems.

UKRAINE CONFLICT AND RUSSIAN INVASION, AND CHINA’S CLAIM FOR A NEW STRATEGY TO INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

From the Chinese perspective, over the past decade, the international system and order have changed into multilateralism, with a fundamental contribution from People’s Republic of China. However Chinese government considers that geopolitical risks have been exacerbated, US government try to suppress and prevent China from enhancing its status in the international system and to use Ukrainian conflict to build blocs led by United States. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic intensified rising nationalism and protectionism. China’s strategy for the international system is being adjusted accordingly. Our research want to understand the China’s strategy for the international system in three aspects: First, what mean to Chinese leaders upholding the international system. Second, what represents to promote reform of the international governance system. And third, what is the further develop the international system for the global economy, finance, and emerging sectors and for regional cooperation mechanisms, that China defends. From this framework, will be analyzed the evolution of China international policy, from their classic roots to the five principles of peaceful coexistence and “the Narratives on the Russian Invasion in Ukraine”, from two beacons: President Xi Jinping Speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, using a negative heuristic and a positive heuristic. But also, the Global Security Initiative for Peace and the Principle of Indivisible Security proposed by President Xi. Confronting “USA plan against Chinese Threat” and “China Global Development Initiative”, “China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI)” and the “Position Paper of the People’s Republic of China for the 77th Session of the United Nations General Assembly”. At last, this article debate the proposal of the XX Congress of Communist Party of China to a common future of people of China and the humanity toward a New Era of peace, genuine democracy, with full application of Universal Declarations of Human Rights Declaration and Ecocivilization.

The Chinese Dragon and the Russian Bear: The Course and the Future of Their Relationship

The tumultuous China-Russia relationship looks back in time. The history of Chinese-Russian relations during the historical journey reflects the existence of two hostile forces that have developed a mutually beneficial cooperation in the shadow of an unsuccessful shared history, a cultural and racial bias of political misunderstandings, ideological differences and geopolitical competition. Although their relationship has been steadily improving during the 1990s to the present day, attitudes have remained highly ambiguous. Moscow and Beijing have reaffirmed their "strategic cooperation" and commitment to a new "global multipolar order," although senior Russian officials have continued to speak openly about the "Chinese threat". The passage from a constructive to a strategic Sino-Russian partnership took place along the historical path, based on a new cooperative vision that formed the cornerstone for the conciliation of the Chinese dragon and the Russian bear. The key question that emerges is the dynamics of this approach and its future. The development of China-Russia "strategic cooperation" can serve the following possibilities: strategic convergence, political and military alliance, the end of history, confrontation and strategic tension. As unique certainty, the relationship between these two countries traverses the emerging horizon, affects Eurasia and far beyond its limits, defining history’s route.

Resistance Resurgent: Resurrecting a Method of Irregular Warfare in Great Power Competition

ABSTRACT The U.S. has spent the last two decades, during its short time as the singular superpower, engaging relatively successfully in counterterrorism. However, we have now entered a new era of Great Power Competition (GPC) with adversaries; Russia and China. In the last decade, these nations have either caught up to the U.S. or have gained a slight edge in several types of warfare, while they challenge the international order created and dominated by the U.S. In particular, Russian threats loom over our NATO Baltic allies, while Chinese threats loom over the South China Sea and Taiwan. The U.S. has inadequate conventional deterrence forces ing each of these theaters and likely could not respond to crisis in each area simultaneously. Concurrently, though not allied, Russia and China have increased cooperation. It will take many years for the U.S. to build adequate conventional forces to prevent each of these adversaries from asserting their will and taking and holding the sovereign territory of our allies or partners. Yet history reveals a type pf warfare for which we and our allies and partners can prepare for immediately at little cost to add a layer of deterrence to assist in denying ultimate victory to our adversaries with scarce dedication of resources. It is a type of warfare that can asymmetrically impose costs on an occupier by forcing him to devote substantial resources to his own security while also making his political consolidation of the occupied territory very difficult if not impossible. Its methods range from violence led by an authorized organization fighting to reclaim sovereignty, to passive and peaceful activities by the general population. This method of warfare, which must be organized, trained and equipped immediately, is resistance.

Strategic and Economic Importance of Chabahar Port

Due to China's engagement in the Gwadar Port,India has hastened the process of becoming ashareholder and stakeholder in Chabahar Port in order tocounter the Chinese threat. Chabahar is India's gateway toCentral and South Asia. It is Iran's intention to link and accessthese countries through the building of the Chabahar Port. Withthe expansion of these connections between South Asia andCentral Asia, West Asian countries and Europe via Chabahar,not only will Iran gain, but so will the nations of these regions.Iran will be able to play a key role as a result of these linkages,which will increase the strategic importance of Iran andChabahar.

The Asia Pacific Chessboard: Alignment of Regional and Extra-Regional Players

The paper aims to analyze the alignment of regional and extra-regional players on the Asia Pacific Chessboard through the lens of Balance of Power theory. China and USA are identified as the chief players of this chessboard which have employed different strategies of hard and soft balancing to counter the influence of other. Using the analogy of Chess game, different roles can be associated with the regional and extra regional players. Under the Trump administration America has resorted towards a hard balancing strategy against rising Chinese threat while China on the other hand is still relying on the soft balancing strategy. The future of Sino-American balancing competition in the region of Asia Pacific depends upon the leadership style of President Biden and whether the current administration continues to identify China as a major threat or not. China has no interest in developing military bases or forging a military alliance at the moment but American strategies can incite China to do so. If needed China could add the military component in its economic and infrastructure initiative of BRI. Hence the American approach and Chinese counter-approach in next few years would determine the fate of the Sino-American balancing competition in the region of Asia Pacific.

A Troubled Alliance: Sino-British Conflicts over Tibet 1941–1945

The Pacific War was an important phase in the Sino-Tibet-Britain relationship but has not been fully analysed from a Chinese-British archival perspective. Through an analysis of some of the key events of the period, such as the negotiations over the vital Tibetan supply line, the nature of the Chinese military threat to Tibet, and the struggle to influence the Tibetan elites, the article illustrates how the war complicated the dispute over Tibet and exacerbated suspicions and tensions in the region. The war also delivered some far-reaching impacts on the future Sino-Tibetan and Sino-Indian relations: Britain’s wartime control of the disputed Assam Himalayas, later inherited by India, facilitated independent India’s claim to these territories and remains a source of conflict today.

Commentary

Commentary

THE RISE OF CHINA AND THE QUESTION OF AN INDO-US ALLIANCE: A PERSPECTIVE FROM INDIA

The ongoing Ladakh crisis between India and China has accentuated a discussion on India allying with the US. However, despite India's steady growth of bilateral security relations with the US, New Delhi's response to the idea of becoming part of a formal alliance has so far been non-comittal. In such a context, the question – will the rising Chinese threat now foster a desire in India to align with the US? – is worth examining. Probing the question, this article contends that while the Ladakh crisis has indubitably heightened India's security challenges emanating from Beijing, yet the possibility of an alliance at the moment remains no more than modest. It notes several challenges and implications that prevent its emergence. They include India's attachment to strategic autonomy, the Pakistan factor, the Russia factor, the Iran factor, unresolved trade disagreements, India's fear of getting entangled in great power rivalry, and the possibility of a US-China rapprochement in the future.

Western Myths about Russian and Chinese Threats

The growing geopolitical confrontation between the West, led by the United States on the one hand, and Russia and China on the other, leads to the appearance in the Western media of myths about Russian and Chinese threats to the international community. The article describes what myths are circulating in the modern media and what such publications lead to. At the same time, the article presents facts that expose these myths.

Armed forces modernisation and shifts in the perception of the Chinese threat

Following the principles of realist school of international relations we are analysing the shifts in Chinese military budget, military posture and overall modernization of armed forces before and after the American ?Pivot? to Asia. These results are later compared to the United States? foreign policy and military posture in East Asia that had changed in the past decade. Employing Walt?s theory of balance of threat in the following article we have analyzed the shifts in Chinese military power and how other regional actors? perceptions had changed during the last two decades of the 21st century. China that began internal balancing at the end of the twentieth century wasnot perceived as a threat to American interests in East Asia, which could potentially alter the regional status quo. The United States along other regional countries didnot perceive Chinese growing military power that was primarily land based, as a factor that should be contained. However, things started to change as Beijing assertiveness in South China Sea alerted other regional actors of Chinese growing naval power and political aspirations. As the research results show, the idea that any kind of balancing can lead to revisionism in the unipolar system is only partially correct concept which can be affected by intensity and nature of balancing politics.

The Perspective of External political strategy of Administration of Joe Biden in Asia-Pacific Region

The article analyses the main actions of Washington in Asia-Pacific region in a first year of the presidency of Joe Biden. This analyses allows to formulate several conclusions about conception and concrete approaches of a new administration to strategy of the USA in APR as well as to relations with main countries of the region and conclusion about differences from asia-pacific policy of previous administration. First, when president D. Trump did not take into account opinion of experts on asia-pacific problems, Joe Biden organized a team of an experienced and authoritative specialists on regional problems, as well as on relations with the most important regional states. Second, while sharing in general the course of the predecessor concerning policy towards China and regard China as a main threat to political, economic and military interests of the USA, Joe Biden shifted and accent from pressure on Beijung on trade-economic problems toward creation of the «containment ring» around China using formation of alliances and unions of countries, which are sharing the position of Washington about growing chinese threat. Third, White house unleashed active ideological counteraction against chinese political, social and economic system, against attempts of Beijing to export its model of «socialism under leadership of communist party», first of all, to developing countries. Finally, through administration of Joe Biden is revealing growing concern about rise of military might of China and about possibility using force against Taiwan, in the end of 2021 year there are started to appear signs of departure from originally determination to secure a containment of Beijing by using making pressure and intentions to lower the degree of tension in american-chinese relations by attempts to reach an agreement about «rules of behavior», about «management of intense competition».

The Pandemic Lockdown Discourse Space: A Critical Cognitive-pragmatic Analysis

Recently, a new coronavirus disease COVID-19 has emerged as a respiratory infection with significant concern for global public health hazards. WHO was alarmed with the growing curve of confirmed cases and death tolls that have been globally reported. During this pandemic, ‘social distancing’ and lockdown were encouraged to flatten the curve which has had major social, political, and economic consequences. Drawing on data from PM Boris Johnson’s and President Donald Trump’s public speeches after WHO’s declaration of the pandemic state, the current study aimed to explore the conceptual and spatial representation of lockdown during the outbreak of COVID-19 in the UK and U.S. from a cognitive perspective. Based on a spatial-temporal and axiological model, this study examined the discursive strategies used by the UK and U.S. governments to legitimize the countries’ full or partial lockdown. Applying Cap’s Proximization Theory, a cognitive-pragmatic model of threat construction, this study investigated how these administrations constructed threat by deploying construal of relations between entities within the Discourse Space. The findings revealed how DS between the conceptualizers’ deictic centre and the threat was curtailed or broadened using conceptual, lexico-grammatical, and coercive strategies. The results showed that PM Johnson relied heavily on a dynamic discursive representation of threat; whereas, President Trump represented the Chinese threat statically. The former appealed to conceptualizers’ fear by broadening the distance between the threat and conceptualizers using promising proximization; whereas, the latter downplayed the virus’ risk blaming it on others, positioning adversary state(s) as source of threat in mental space.

The Geopolitics of COVID-19: A Pragma-Cognitive Approach

This study intends to investigate the outbreak of coronavirus, scientifically known as COVID-19, within the context of discursive geopolitics. In so doing, Cap’s proximization is particularly suitable to address the cognitive paradigm of critical geopolitics. Cap’s proximization, as a pragma-cognitive framing device based on tempo-spatial dimensions, conceptualises the geopolitical identity of coronavirus by associating it with the qualities of space and time. It is found that the NYT reporting of the corona event is framed in certain tempo-spatial configurations which cognitively endorse and proximize the geopolitical identity of the Chinese threat. The notion of metaphorical scenario (Kovecses, 2003; Musolff, 2004), originated in the Conceptual Metaphor Theory (Lakoff, 1993; Lakoff & Johnson, 1980/2003) is then deployed to show how a geopolitical scenario of a CHINESE THREAT is represented in the NYT. China is being laid before us spatially and temporally as the culprit behind the outbreak of coronavirus. The study aims to give guidance to the field of discursive geopolitics by suggesting cognitive pragmatics as suitable tool for analyzing the construction of geopolitical entities.

TRENDS: A Red Flag for Participation: The Influence of Chinese Mainlandization on Political Behavior in Hong Kong

This article assesses how contemporary forms of regional assimilation by centralizing states affect the political behavior of threatened social groups within peripheral polities. Recent mainlandization, “the blurring of the physical, social, cultural and psychological border between Mainland China and Hong Kong,” has constrained the region’s autonomy. Here, we consider the political consequences of Chinese mainlandization. How does mainlandization affect the likelihood of political participation in Hong Kong? Drawing and expanding upon theories of social identity, we argue that mainlandization increases the political involvement among those who make the choice to identify as Hong Konger because this is the group under threat by China’s recent actions. Hong Kongers politically mobilize as a response to mainlandization to combat Chinese threat and to improve the status of their identity group, of which their own sense of selves is also tied to. Using an original survey experiment, we find support for our theory. Hong Kongers are influenced by mainlandization to attend contentious protests, recruit others to attend such rallies, and sign pro-democratic petitions. We conclude by noting implications for China’s increasing attempt to assimilate this electoral autocracy and discuss how our research informs Hong Kong political activism in 2019 and 2020.

The Chinese threat we forgot about: Huawei and ISDS

The Chinese threat we forgot about: Huawei and ISDS