China Meteorological Administration Research Articles

Improved Gravity Wave Drag to Enhance Precipitation Simulation: A Case Study of Typhoon In-Fa

Traditional gravity wave drag parameterizations produce wind stresses that are insensitive to changing horizontal resolution in numerical weather prediction (NWP), partly due to the idealized elliptical assumption. This study employs the modified subgrid-scale orography scheme based on the Fourier transform into gravity wave drag scheme of the China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System (CMA-GFS) to assess its impacts on simulating precipitation during the slow-moving period of Typhoon In-Fa after its landfall in Zhejiang Province, China. The simulation with the updated scheme can effectively reduce the accumulated precipitation bias of the control one and improve the simulation of precipitation distribution and intensity, especially in the hourly precipitation simulation. The improved scheme primarily influences the wind field of the low-level troposphere and also changes the convergence of the integrated water vapor transport and ascending motions related to the reduced precipitation biases. The modified scheme enhances the tendencies of the horizontal winds caused by the varying horizontal resolutions in the model, strengthening the sensitivity of the gravity wave drag across the horizontal scales. Results from medium-range forecasts indicate the modified scheme benefits the statistics scores of precipitation over China and also reduces root-mean-square errors of 2 m temperature and 10 m winds.

The Evaluation of FY-3E Hyperspectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder-II Long-Wave Temperature Sounding Channels

Prior to assimilating hyperspectral infrared data on the FengYun (FY) satellite in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system, it is necessary to identify the quality and bias characteristics of these data, especially as China’s first early-morning-orbit satellite data. Using the numerical model CMA-GFS (China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System) and the observation of FY-3E HIRAS-II (Hyperspectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder-II), the differences between observed and simulated brightness temperatures (O-Bs) are comprehensively analyzed, with a focus on evaluating the long-wave (LW) temperature sounding channels of HIRAS-II observation in the clear sky. The results show that the O-Bs in the LW channels are between ±1.0 K, except for the CO2 absorption line peak at 667 cm−1. Only a tiny variation in O-Bs, with relative consistency, could be observed during the day, the line of dawn and dusk, and night. The difference in the standard deviations of O-Bs in the three cases is less than 0.1 K. The O-Bs of two typical channels (channels 14 and 47) in the stratosphere have disturbances at individual times, whereas the O-Bs are much more stable in time series in the tropospheric channels. The O-Bs in different channels show the characteristics of changing with the latitude, but the bias and standard deviations of O-Bs during the ascending and descending stages are not much different, except for the bias of channel 47 in low latitude. The optimal ranking of Fields of View (FOVs) in assimilation is derived from a priori analysis of O-Bs. The results demonstrate that FOV4 and FOV5 are the best in a Field of Regard (FOR) compared to all LW channels of HIRAS-II in constructions of their O-Bs and magnitude of O-B standard deviations, and they can be used as the preferred FOVs for assimilation. While the O-Bs in FOV1 and FOV2 are slightly larger, the O-Bs’ characteristics also meet the assimilation requirements and can be used as assimilation FOVs in HIRAS-II LW channels after FOV4 and FOV5 lose their efficacy.

Tropical cyclone genesis prediction based on support vector machine considering effects of multiple meteorological parameters

Most coastal regions worldwide face great challenges from tropical cyclones (TCs). Accurate prediction of TC genesis is critical for conducting risk assessments and disaster mitigation. Compared to conventional statistical models, this study introduces a machine-learning-based approach utilizing a support vector machine (SVM) to predict TC genesis. Historical TC genesis data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are utilized. Five meteorological parameters are extracted from climate reanalysis datasets: absolute vorticity, relative humidity, vertical velocity relative sea surface temperature, and vertical wind shear. A high-dimensional mapping between meteorological parameters and TC genesis labels is performed before classification training. The effects of proportions of positive/negative samples and training/testing sets on model performance are examined, aiming to identify the optimal solution. Different meteorological parameter combinations tested to achieve the highest classification accuracy. Temporal and spatial outcomes of TC predictions are compared with historical data to verify model accuracy. The proposed approach enables simultaneous determination of TC genesis locations and counts, significantly enhancing computational efficiency. It also uses meteorological parameters more comprehensively considering the underlying physical mechanisms. In future climate change scenarios, forecasted meteorological data can be directly incorporated to derive TC genesis patterns.

A new and efficient method for tropical cyclone detection and tracking in gridded datasets

Most of existing algorithms for detecting tropical cyclones (TCs) in global climate model employed multiple detectors, and screened the field grid by grid by thresholding, while a quantitative assessment of the performance of these algorithms has been infrequent. A new method based on mathematical morphology for detecting and tracking TC in gridded reanalysis data is proposed and evaluated. The method begins by transforming the field of lower-tropospheric (850 hPa) relative vorticity from the reanalysis data into a binary image using a defined critical vorticity threshold. The images are then processed by connected component labeling and erosion operations until inner cores emerge as the TC seeds. Simple rules for connecting the seeds to form TC tracks are proposed. Twenty years of ERA5 data and the China Meteorological Administration best track data (CMA) in 2002–2021 are used to develop and evaluate the method for the Western North Pacific basin (WNP). The detected TC events are examined track-by-track with the observed ones. The performance of the method is further evaluated in terms of the statistics of TC occurrence, track density, landfall location, and translational speed. It is demonstrated that the proposed method can reproduce the TC tracks for both over ocean and after landfall with good accuracy and efficiency. The source of erroneous tracking and limitation of the proposed method are discussed. Given its satisfactory performance in tracking TCs in the WNP basin, it is promising to be applied to the study of TC changes in a warming climate.

Study of the Sea Temperature Backgrounds to Tropical Cyclones Affecting Hainan Province in the Dry Season

Using the best path data set of tropical cyclones from the China Meteorological Administration, NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data, JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) SST (surface sea temperature) data and NCEP subsurface sea temperature data, the sea temperature background of tropical cyclones affecting Hainan Province in the dry season was analyzed using typical cases from November to December. The results show that there was a significant positive correlation between the number of tropical cyclones affecting Hainan Province and the sea surface temperature in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. The high SST in the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific were favorable for the occurrence and development of tropical cyclones. The circulation situation also had a significant impact on tropical cyclones during the concurrent period. The wind field convergence was conducive to the occurrence and development of tropical cyclones. The high subsurface sea temperature in the Western Pacific at the depth of 5–50 m was conducive to the strengthening of convection in the Pacific warm pool and the occurrence of the tropical cyclones. The typical cases of 1993 and 2017 have effectively verified the impact of the sea surface temperature background and circulation situation on tropical cyclones affecting the Hainan Province from November to December.

An Ensemble Forecast Wind Field Correction Model with Multiple Factors and Spatio-Temporal Features

Accurate wind speed prediction is significantly important for the full utilization of wind energy resources and the improvement in the economic benefits of wind farms. Because the ensemble forecast takes into account the uncertainty of information about the atmospheric motion, domestic and foreign weather service forecast centers often choose to use the ensemble numerical forecast to achieve the fine forecast of wind speed. However, due to the unavoidable systematic errors of the ensemble numerical forecast model, it is necessary to correct the deviation in the ensemble numerical forecast wind speed. Considering the typical spatio-temporal characteristics of the grid prediction data of the wind field, based on Convolutional Long–Short Term Memory (ConvLSTM) units and attention mechanism, this paper takes the complex and representative North China region as the research area, aiming to reveal the shortcomings of existing deep learning integrated prediction correction models in extracting temporal features of grid prediction data. We propose a new ensemble prediction wind field correction model integrating multi-factor and spatio-temporal characteristics. This model uses reanalyzed land data provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts as the real data to correct the deviation in the near-surface 10 m wind field data predicted by the regional ensemble numerical prediction model of the China Meteorological Administration. We used the reanalyzed land data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as the live data to correct the deviation in the near-surface 10 m wind field data predicted by the regional ensemble numerical forecast model of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). At the same time, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were used as the scoring indicators, and the results of the China Meteorological Administration–Regional Ensemble Prediction System (CMA–REPS) ensemble average, multiple linear regression method correction, Long–Short Term Memory (LSTM) method correction, and U-net (UNET) method correction were compared. Compared with the UNET model method, the experimental results show that when processing the 10 m zonal wind data, 10 m meridional wind data, and 10 m average wind speed data of CMA–REPS 24 h forecasts, the correction results of our model can reduce the RMSE score index by 9.15%, 4.83%, and 7.79%. At the same time, when processing the 48 h and 72 h near-surface 10 m wind field data of the CMA–REPS forecast, our model can improve the prediction accuracy of CMA–REPS near-surface wind forecast data. Therefore, the correction effect of the proposed model in a complex terrain area is evidently better compared to other methods.

Investigating transformer‐based models for spatial downscaling and correcting biases of near‐surface temperature and wind‐speed forecasts

AbstractHigh‐resolution and accurate prediction of near‐surface weather parameters based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is essential for many downstream and real‐world applications. Traditional dynamical or statistical downscaling methods are insufficient to derive high‐resolution data from operational NWP forecasts, making it essential to devise new approaches. In recent years, an increasing number of researchers have explored the implementations of deep learning (DL) based models for spatial downscaling, motivated by the similarity between the super‐resolution (SR) problem in computer vision (CV) and downscaling. Furthermore, while transformer‐based models have become state‐of‐the‐art models for many SR tasks, they are rarely applied for downscaling of weather forecasts or climate projections. This study adapted transformer‐based models such as SwinIR and Uformer to downscale the temperature at 2 m () and wind speed at 10 m () over Eastern Inner Mongolia, encompassing the area from 39.6–46°N latitude and 111.6–118°E longitude. We used high‐resolution forecast (HRES) data from the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) with a spatial resolution of 0.1° as the input and gridded observation data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) at a spatial resolution of 0.01° as the target. Given that the models use observation data rather than a coarse‐grained version of forecast data as the target, they accomplish both bias correction and spatial downscaling. The results demonstrate that the performance of SwinIR and Uformer is superior to that of two convolutional neural network (CNN) based models (UNet and RCAN). Additionally, we introduced a novel module to extract features of varying resolution from the high‐resolution topography data and applied a multiscale feature fusion module to merge features of different scales, contributing to further enhancement of Uformer's performance.

Spatial Downscaling of Near-Surface Air Temperature Based on Deep Learning Cross-Attention Mechanism

Deep learning methods can achieve a finer refinement required for downscaling meteorological elements, but their performance in terms of bias still lags behind physical methods. This paper proposes a statistical downscaling network based on Light-CLDASSD that utilizes a Shuffle–nonlinear-activation-free block (SNBlock) and Swin cross-attention mechanism (SCAM), and is named SNCA-CLDASSD, for the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS). This method aims to achieve a more accurate spatial downscaling of a temperature product from 0.05° to 0.01° for the CLDAS. To better utilize the digital elevation model (DEM) for reconstructing the spatial texture of the temperature field, a module named SCAM is introduced, which can activate more input pixels and enable the network to correct and merge the extracted feature maps with DEM information. We chose 90% of the CLDAS temperature data with DEM and station observation data from 2016 to 2020 (excluding 2018) as the training set, 10% as the verification set, and chose the data in 2018 as the test set. We validated the effectiveness of each module through comparative experiments and obtained the best-performing model. Then, we compared it with traditional interpolation methods and state-of-the-art deep learning super-resolution algorithms. We evaluated the experimental results with HRCLDAS, national stations, and regional stations, and the results show that our improved model performs optimally compared to other methods (RMSE of 0.71 °C/0.12 °C/0.72 °C, BIAS of −0.02 °C/0.02 °C/0.002 °C), with the most noticeable improvement in mountainous regions, followed by plains. SNCA-CLDASSDexhibits the most stable performance in intraday hourly bias at temperature under the conditions of improved feature extraction capability in the SNBlock and a better utilization of the DEM by the SCAM. Due to the replacement of the upsampling method from sub pixels to CARAFE, it effectively suppresses the checkerboard effect and shows better robustness than other models. Our approach extends the downscaling model for CLDAS data products and significantly improves performance in this task by enhancing the model’s feature extraction and fusion capabilities and improving upsampling methods. It offers a more profound exploration of historical high-resolution temperature estimation and can be migrated to the downscaling of other meteorological elements.

A dense station-based, long-term and high-accuracy dataset of daily surface solar radiation in China

Abstract. The lack of long-term and high-quality solar radiation data has been an obstacle for scientific and industrial fields. In this study, a dense station-based, long-term and high-accuracy dataset of daily surface solar radiation was developed using two surface radiation models. One is the model developed by Yang et al. (2006) for global radiation estimation, and the other is the model developed by Tang et al. (2018) for direct radiation estimation. The main inputs for the development of the dataset are surface pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, horizontal visibility and sunshine duration, which are the routine meteorological variables observed at the 2743 China Meteorological Administration (CMA) weather stations. Validation against in situ observations and comparisons with two satellite-based radiation products shows that our station-based radiation dataset clearly outperforms the satellite-based radiation products at both daily and monthly scales. In addition, our dataset is available for more than 60 years and includes three radiation components of global, direct and diffuse radiation, which is not possible with satellite products. This station-based radiation dataset will contribute to the climate change research and solar energy engineering applications in the future. The station-based dataset is now available at https://doi.org/10.11888/Atmos.tpdc.300461 (Tang, 2023).

Validation and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Surface Net Radiation from CRA/Land and ERA5-Land over the Tibetan Plateau

High spatial–temporal resolution surface net radiation (RN) data are of great significance to the study of climate, ecology, hydrology and cryosphere changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), but the verification of the surface net radiation products on the plateau is not sufficient. In this study, the China Meteorological Administration Global Land Surface Reanalysis Products (CRA/Land) and ECMWF Land Surface Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5-Land) RN data were validated using ground measurements at daily and monthly time scales, and the spatiotemporal patterns were also analyzed. The results indicate the following: (1) CRA/Land overestimated while ERA5-Land underestimated RN, but CRA/Land RN outperformed ERA5-Land in observations at the daily and monthly scale. (2) The CRA/Land RN data had a larger error in the central part and a smaller error in the northeast of the TP, while ERA5-Land showed the opposite. (3) The spatial patterns of RN revealed by CRA/Land and ERA5-Land data showed differences in most regions. The CRA/Land data showed that the RN of the TP had a downward trend during 2000 and 2020 with a slope of −0.112 W·m−2/a, while the ERA5-Land data indicated an upward trend with a change rate of 0.016 W·m−2/a. (4) Downwelling shortwave radiation (DSR), upwelling shortwave radiation (USR), downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) and upwelling longwave radiation (ULR) are the four components of RN, and the evaluation results indicate that the DSR, DLR and ULR recorded via CRA/Land and ERA5-Land are consistent with the observed data, but the consistency between the USR recorded via CRA/Land and ERA5-Land and the observed data is poor. (5) The inconsistency of the USR data is the main reason for the large differences in the spatiotemporal distribution of CRA/Land and ERA5-Land RN data across the TP.

Hybrid Assimilation of Snow Cover Improves Land Surface Simulations over Northern China

Abstract Ensemble data assimilation (DA) is an efficient approach to reduce snow simulation errors by combining observation and land surface modeling. However, there is a small spread between ensemble members of simulated snowpack, which typically occurs for a long time with 100% snow cover fraction (SCF) or snow-free conditions. Here, we apply a hybrid DA method, in which direct insertion (DI) is a supplement of the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF), to assimilate the spaceborne SCF into a land surface model, driven by China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System high-resolution climate forcings over northern China during the snow season in 2021/22. Compared to the open-loop experiment (without SCF assimilation), the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of SCF is reduced by 6% through the original EnSRF and is even lower (by 14%) in the combined DI and EnSRF (EnSRFDI) experiment. The results reveal the ability of both EnSRF and EnSRFDI to improve the SCF estimation over regions where the snow cover is low, while only EnSRFDI is able to efficiently reduce the RMSE over areas with high SCF. Moreover, the SCF assimilation is also observed to improve the snow depth and soil temperature simulations, with the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) increasing at 60% and 56%–70% stations, respectively, particularly under conditions with near-freezing temperature, in which reliable simulations are typically challenging. Our results demonstrate that the EnSRFDI hybrid method can be applied for the assimilation of spaceborne observational snow cover to improve land surface simulations and snow-related operational products. Significance Statement Due to the small spread between the seasonal snowpack of ensemble simulations, ensemble snow cover fraction (SCF) data assimilation (DA) proves to be ineffective. Therefore, we apply a hybrid method that combines the direct insertion (DI) and ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) to assimilate the spaceborne SCF into a land surface model (LSM) driven by high-resolution climate forcings. Our results reveal the applicability of the EnSRFDI to further improve snow cover simulations over regions with high SCF. Furthermore, the DA experiments were validated through a large number of in situ observations from the China Meteorological Administration. The uncertainties of snow depth and soil temperature simulations are also slightly reduced by the SCF DAs, particularly over regions with a poor LSM performance.

Intercomparison of tropospheric and stratospheric mesoscale kinetic energy resolved by the high‐resolution global reanalysis datasets

AbstractWith the development of advanced data assimilation and computing techniques, many modern global reanalysis datasets aim to resolve the atmospheric mesoscale spectrum. However, large uncertainties remain with respect to the representation of mesoscale motions in these reanalysis datasets, for which a clear understanding is lacking. The aforementioned challenges have served as a strong motivation to reveal and quantify their mesoscale differences. This study presents the first comprehensive global intercomparison of the tropospheric and stratospheric mesoscale kinetic energy and its spectra over two selected periods of summer and winter events among six leading high‐resolution atmospheric reanalysis products: European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), China Meteorological Administration Reanalysis, Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2, National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis, and ECMWF Reanalysis‐Interim. A state‐of‐the‐art global operational model is adopted as a supplementary reference. Although all reanalysis datasets can reproduce broad distribution characteristics that are grossly consistent with the 9 km model, there are substantial discrepancies among them in magnitudes. The ability to capture mesoscale signals is closely linked to their resolutions, but it is also impacted by other factors, including, but not limited to, the selected types of energy, seasons, altitudes, latitudes, model diffusions, parametrization schemes, moist condition, assimilation methods, and observation inputs. Moreover, all datasets illustrate conclusive behaviors for the prevalence of the rotational component in the troposphere, whereas only very few products fail to exhibit the dominance of the divergent component in the stratosphere. Overall, stratospheric ERA5 and CFSv2 outperform the other reanalysis datasets, and only these two can reproduce the feature of the canonical kinetic energy spectrum with a distinct shift from a steeper slope (approximately −3) at lower wave numbers to a shallower slope (approximately −5/3) at higher wave numbers. In addition, the relative disparities among datasets increase dramatically with height, and they are more pronounced in the divergent component. It is also found that the correlations among these datasets are much weaker in the Tropics.

Forecast and Analysis of a Rainstorm Case in East China Based on the Blown-Up Theory

Practical application has shown that the blown-up theory has great predictive ability for predicting transitional weather systems, especially catastrophic weather systems. This study applies the blown-up theory to analyze and predict a rainstorm case in Jiangsu Province of East China to explore the applicability of the blown-up theory. At the same time, a numerical simulation experiment is conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) v4.2. The numerical results are compared with the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) data and the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) products. It is found that there is a deviation in the simulation for the precipitation center, and further analysis indicates that it is likely related to the position of the simulated low-level shear line. On the other hand, the blown-up analyses are consistent with the actual situation and provide additional information besides the numerical simulation results. These results indicate that the blown-up charts and V-3θ diagrams are able to predict the weather system transformation, the rainfall area, and the evolution of the rainstorm, which confirms the applicability of the blown-up theory to rainstorm forecasts. This provides an auxiliary analysis method in addition to numerical simulations for rainstorm forecasts.

Quality assessment of aerosol lidars at 1064 nm in the framework of the MEMO campaign

Abstract. Aerosol lidar networks can play an important role in revealing structural characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer, the urban heat island effect, and the spatial distribution of aerosols, especially in relation to the monitoring of atmospheric pollution in megacities. To fulfill the need of the monitoring and numerical forecasting of atmospheric pollution, an aerosol lidar network is proposed by the China Meteorological Administration which serves as an important part of the “MegaCity Experiment on Integrated Meteorological Observation in China” (MEMO). To ensure a high standard of data quality and traceability of measurement error, an inter-comparison campaign, dedicated to the quality assessment of lidar systems from different institutes and manufacturers, was designed and performed at Beijing Southern Suburb Observatory in September 2021. Six Mie–Rayleigh lidar systems at 1064 nm were involved in this campaign. The strategies for lidar self-evaluations and inter-comparisons were predefined. A lidar system at 1064 nm, which was developed by the Atmospheric Remote Sensing group at Wuhan University, was selected as the reference lidar system after passing all strict self-evaluation quality checks. The reference lidar system serves as the cornerstone for evaluating the performance of other lidar systems. After using the Rayleigh fit and signal-to-noise evaluation self-tests for each individual lidar system as a fast check of the data quality, the range-corrected signal and backscatter coefficient obtained from all the lidar systems were inter-compared with a reference lidar system. In the end, the lidar systems passed the quality control/assurance, ensuring that the standard deviation of range-corrected signal could be controlled within 5 % at 500–2000 m and 10 % at 2000–5000 m. For the derived aerosol backscatter coefficients, standard deviations can be controlled within 10 % at 500–2000 and 2000–5000 m. The quality assurance strategy lays down a solid basis for atmospheric lidar at near-infrared wavelengths and will be applied in Chinese lidar network development.

Research on a Clustering Forecasting Method for Short-Term Precipitation in Guangdong Based on the CMA-TRAMS Ensemble Model

In light of the 2020–2021 flood season in Guangdong, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of short-term precipitation forecasts generated by the ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea (CMA-TRAMS). Furthermore, we applied four distinct strategies to cluster the ensemble forecast data produced by the model for precipitation, aiming to enhance our understanding of their applicability in short-term precipitation forecasting for Guangdong. Our key findings were as follows.: Precipitation during the 2020–2021 flood season in Guangdong exhibited distinct characteristics. The impacting areas of frontal and subtropical high-edge rainfall were relatively scattered, predominantly occurring in the evening and nighttime. In contrast, monsoon precipitation and return-flow precipitation were concentrated, with their impacts lasting from early morning to evening. Notably, the errors using the ensemble maximum and minimum values were large, while the errors for the ensemble mean values and medians were small. This indicated that the model’s short-term precipitation forecasts possessed a high degree of stability. The vertical shear of different types of precipitation exerted a noticeable influence on the model’s performance. The model consistently displayed a tendency to underestimate short-term precipitation in Guangdong; however, this bias decreased with longer lead times. Simultaneously, the model’s dispersion increased with longer lead times. In terms of mean absolute error (MAE) test results, there was little difference in the performance of ensemble primary forecasts under various strategies, while the “ward” strategy performed well in sub-primary cluster forecasts. This was particularly true for areas and types of precipitation where the model’s performance was poor. While the clustering approach lagged behind ensemble mean forecasts in predicting rainy conditions, it exhibited improvement in forecasting short-term heavy rainfall events. The “complete” and “single” strategies consistently delivered the most accurate forecasts for such events. Our study sheds light on the effectiveness of clustering methods in improving short-term precipitation forecasts for Guangdong, particularly in regions and conditions where the model initially struggled. These findings contribute to our understanding of precipitation forecasting during flood seasons and can inform strategies for enhancing forecast accuracy in similar contexts.

Forecasting Snowmelt Season Temperatures in the Mountainous Area of Northern Xinjiang of China

The mountains in northern Xinjiang of China were studied during the snowmelt season. Multi-source fusions of live data of the Chinese Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS, 0.05° × 0.05°, hourly data) were used as real data, and the Central Meteorological Observatory guidance forecast (SCMOC, 0.05° × 0.05°, forecasting the following 10 days in 3 h intervals) was used as forecast data, both of which were issued by the China Meteorological Administration. The dynamic linear regression and the average filter correction algorithms were selected to revise the original forecast products for SCMOC. Based on the conventional temperature forecast information, we designed four temperature-rise prediction algorithms for essential factors affecting snowmelt. The temperature-rise prediction algorithms included the daily maximum temperature algorithm, daily temperature-rise-range algorithm, snowmelt temperature algorithm, and daily snowmelt duration algorithm. Four temperature-rise prediction values were calculated for each prediction product. The root–mean-squared error algorithm and temperature prediction accuracy algorithm were used to compare and test each prediction algorithm value from the time sequence and spatial distribution. Comprehensive tests showed that the forecast product revised by the average filter algorithm was superior to the revised dynamic linear regression algorithm as well as the original forecast product. Through these algorithms, the more suitable temperature-rise forecast value for each grid point in the study area could be obtained at different prediction times. The comprehensive and accurate temperature forecast value in the mountainous snowmelt season could provide an accurate theoretical basis for the effective prediction of runoff in snowmelt areas and the prevention of snowmelt flooding.

Investigating the Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Size in the Western North Pacific from 1981 to 2009

Tropical cyclone (TC) size is an important parameter for estimating TC risks, such as precipitation distribution, gale-force wind damage, and storm surge. This paper uses the TC size dataset compiled by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration (STI/CMA) to investigate the interannual, monthly variation in TC size, and the relationships between TC size and intensity in the WNP basin from 1981 to 2009. The results show that the annual mean TC size oscillated within the range of 175–210 km from 1981 to 2002, then decreased following 2003. For the monthly average TC size, there are two peaks in September and October. The TC size, overall, becomes larger with increasing intensity; the samples with an unusually large size are mainly concentrated near a 40 m s−1 intensity. After the TC intensity exceeds 40 m s−1, the number of unusually large size samples gradually decreases. About 60% of the TCs reach their maximum size after reaching the peak intensity, and the average lag time is 8.3 h.

Performance of regional climate model RegCM4 with a hydrostatic or non‐hydrostatic dynamic core at simulating precipitation extremes in China

AbstractIn this study, we investigated the performance of RegCM4 with a hydrostatic or non‐hydrostatic dynamic core and different land surface models at simulating the mean and extreme precipitation during 1991–1999 in China and the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration (JJJ) in northern China. The resolutions were 12 km with the whole of China included and 3 km nested over the JJJ region. The observed daily precipitation data comprised the CN05.1 data set from China Meteorological Administration. First, RegCM4 with a hydrostatic dynamic core forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR) that participated in CMIP6 was used to simulate the east Asia area at a resolution of 12 km. Next, the RegCM4 results with 12 km resolution forced RegCM4 with a non‐hydrostatic dynamic core (RegCM4‐NH) to run over the JJJ region with a 3 km convection‐permitting scale through one‐way nesting. The results showed that RegCM4 with a hydrostatic and non‐hydrostatic core could obtain more detailed seasonal and annual precipitation in China and the JJJ region relative to MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR although their performance varied over different regions. RegCM4 with the community land surface model 4.5 (CLM4.5) generally performed better at simulating the mean and extreme precipitation over the four subregions of China than that with the Biosphere–Atmosphere Transfer Scheme because of more detailed descriptions of land surface processes of CLM4.5. RegCM4‐NH with convection‐permitting resolution improved the simulations of heavy precipitation extremes over JJJ compared with RegCM4 with a hydrostatic core and resolution of 12 km. In addition, RegCM4‐NH with CLM4.5 performed better at simulating heavy precipitation extremes over JJJ compared with all other simulations, with higher correlation coefficients and larger relative root mean squared errors.

Statistical Evaluation of the Performance of Gridded Daily Precipitation Products from Reanalysis Data, Satellite Estimates, and Merged Analyses over Global Land

The Beijing Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration (BCC/CMA) has developed a gauge-satellite-model merged gridded daily precipitation dataset with complete global coverage, called BCC Merged Estimation of Precipitation (BMEP). Using the unified rain gauge dataset from the CPC (CPC-U) as the independent benchmark, BMEP and the four most widely used global daily precipitation products, including the Global Precipitation Climatology Project one-degree daily (GPCP-1DD), the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the Interim ECMWF Re-analysis (ERA-interim), and the 55 year Japanese Reanalysis Project (JRA-55), are evaluated over the global land area from January 2003 to December 2016. The results show that all gridded datasets capture the overall spatiotemporal variation of global daily precipitation. All gridded datasets can basically capture the overall spatiotemporal variation of global daily precipitation. However, CFSR data tend to overestimate precipitation intensity and exhibit a spurious positive trend after 2010, attributed to the transition from CFSR to NCEP’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). On the other hand, JRA-55 and ERA-interim data demonstrate higher skill in characterizing spatial and temporal variations, bias, correlation, and RMSE. GPCP-1DD data perform well in terms of bias but show limitations in detecting the interannual variability and RMSE of daily precipitation. Among these evaluated products, BMEP data exhibit the best agreement with CPC-U data in terms of the spatiotemporal variation, pattern, magnitude of variability, and occurrence of rainfall events across different thresholds. These findings indicate that BMEP gridded precipitation data effectively capture the actual characteristics of daily precipitation over global land areas.

Evaluation of ERA5 Reanalysis Precipitation Data in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin of the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract Atmospheric simulation-based gridded precipitation datasets have been widely used in hydrological and land surface modeling, but may contain larger uncertainties in mountainous regions. This study compared the performance of the fifth European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5) precipitation data with two fused precipitation datasets [China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System version 2.0 (CLDAS2.0) and China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD)] in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin (YZRB), which has a complex terrain and climate. Compared to in situ observations, ERA5 could capture the spatial–temporal pattern of precipitation but showed high precipitation, especially in the downstream region (lower Nuxia discharge station). In terms of the correlation coefficient, the overall performance of the ERA5 data was slightly worse than that for CMFD data at both the monthly and yearly scales, and was comparable to that of the CLDAS2.0 data. Given that the spatial mismatch between the gridded and in situ data may influence the evaluation, we also employed the water balance method to constrain basinwide precipitation amounts. We found that CLDAS2.0 and CMFD precipitation data tended to cause long-term water imbalance, and ERA5, with a much larger multiyear average annual precipitation, could better close the water budget. Further analysis showed that the differences in multiyear average annual precipitation between ERA5 and in situ observations were closely related to the slope and standard deviation of the subgrid-scale orography, indicating the substantial influence of subgrid topography on precipitation simulation. These findings highlight that ERA5 could be a potential reference dataset for hydrological modeling of the YZRB.