Changes In Land Use Types Research Articles

Combined effects of urbanization and climate variability on water and carbon balances in a rice paddy-dominated basin in Southern China

Abstract Urbanization is known to elevate storm runoff, but how it influences carbon cycle and ecosystem productivity through altering the evapotranspiration (ET) process is less clear. We examined the combined effects of urbanization including change in impervious surface area (ISA) and climate variability on the water and carbon balances of the Qinhuai River Basin (QRB) over 2001-2018. QRB represents a typical rice paddy-dominated region that experienced rapid urbanization in southern China. We improved a monthly scale Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) ecosystem service model by integrating local eddy flux measurements and high-resolution remote sensing data. We found a significant downward trend in both ET (−4.6 mm yr-1, p<0.05) and gross primary productivity (GPP) (−10.4 gC m-2 yr-1, p<0.05) but a significant upward trend in water yield (Q) (+28.6 mm yr-1, p<0.05). These ecosystem function changes coincided with a 96% increase in urban areas, 23.2% increase in ISA, and a 37% reduction in rice paddy fields. The mean annual watershed GPP decreased from 1048 gC m-2 to 998 gC m-2 while the annual Q increased from 284 mm to 669 mm from 2001 to 2018. Scenario modelling experiments suggested that the negative impacts of loss of rice paddy fields and increase in ISA on ET and GPP overwhelmed the positive impacts of climate warming. The reduction in GPP and increase in Q were largely attributed to the increases in ISA, not necessarily due to changes in land use types (e.g., urban area). The expansion of urban area, increase in ISA and reduction in leaf area index, and increase in precipitation explained the increase in Q. Our research offers insight about the interactions of carbon and water cycles through the critical ET processes under a changing climate and land surface characteristics at a watershed level. Our modelling tool and analysis provides land managers and policy makers information for designing effective ‘Urban Nature-based Solutions’ to mitigate the negative environmental effects of urbanization on carbon and water.

Ecological protection makes the ecological Kuznets curve turning point come earlier

Exploring the relationship between land use cover/change (LUCC) and ecosystem service value (ESV) under different future scenarios can provide guidance for selecting future development patterns and for the scientific utilization of land resources in the region. In this study, LUCC under different scenarios in the North Slope of Tianshan Mountain (NSTM) was simulated using the PLUS model. The ESV coefficients were adjusted for regional differences and social development factors to better reflect the actual situation in the study area. The interactions between LUCC, landscape pattern (LSP), and ESV were systematically analyzed, while at the same time, ESV and the level of economic development were fitted to the Ecological Kuznets Curve, which was then used to determine its trend and inflection point. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) Cropland and unused land are the main types of land use change in the NSTM, both historically and in the future. Cropland shows an increase in the natural development scenario and a decrease in the ecological protection scenario. Unused land shows an increase in the different development scenarios, indicating that unused land has higher development potential in the NSTM. NSTM shows a continuous decrease in ESV in the natural development scenario and a continuous increase in ESV in the ecological protection scenario. (2) LSP in both historical and future NSTM have evolved to show fragmentation, heterogeneity, and complexity in patch forms. However, this trend is slower in the ecological protection scenario than in the natural development scenario. LUCC, LSP, and ESV form an integrated framework of interactions, where LUCC influences ESV through LSP, and changes in ESV feedback to LUCC through LSP, which acts as a bridging mediator. (3) The Ecological Kuznets Curve of NSTM exhibits an N-shape, showing a clear overall rightward trend across different development scenarios at the annual level. At the interannual level, the curves for the natural development scenario are situated in the middle of the declining phase of the N-shape, with no ecological inflection point occurring during the study period. In contrast, the curves for the ecological protection scenario display a declining-ascending trend, with the ecological inflection point occurring when per capita GDP reaches 2.5 × 10^6 CNY.

Understanding future water-carbon-land coupled systems in the era of COP 27: The case of the Hanjiang river Basin, China

The 27th Conference of the Parties (COP 27) emphasized addressing this century's interconnected challenges of food, water, and energy. This study proposes a coupled ecosystem service and multi-scenario land-use change simulation model designed to investigate the future dynamics of water-carbon-land coupled systems in the Hanjiang River Basin (HJRB), the primary objective is to provide valuable insights that can inform strategic spatial management decisions, aligning with the ambitious objectives outlined in COP 27. Specifically, this study utilized the PLUS model, InVEST model, and redundancy analysis to comprehensively analyze the interplay between ecosystem services and land-use changes, with a specific focus on water, carbon, and land dynamics. The results showed that regardless of the simulated scenarios, there was a consistent pattern observed in the changes of land use types within the HJRB, with a decrease in farmland and an increase in forest. However, the water area showed an increasing trend in all scenarios, especially in the ecological land protection (ELP) and sustainable development scenarios. Furthermore, the ELP scenario effectively suppressed the expansion of building land and the erosion of ecological land. Ecosystem services under different scenarios showed similar spatial distribution patterns but presented varying degrees of change related to the impact of future land use and urban development on ecosystem services. The water yield (WY), carbon storage, and soil conservation in the upstream areas increased to varying degrees, while those in the downstream areas decreased. In conclusion, precipitation, land use/land cover change, DEM (Digital Elevation Model), and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) were the main driving factors affecting ecosystem services, with precipitation having the most significant and enduring impact on WY. This study supports the adoption of targeted spatial management measures to promote sustainable development and enhance human well-being.

Access denied: Land alienation and pastoral conflicts

Conflicts involving pastoralists have been on the rise in the past two decades in West, Central and East Africa. This article argues that land alienation is a major source of this type of violence. We employ a narrow identification strategy of relevant pastoral conflicts based on the Armed Conflict Location Event Dataset and create a unique indicator of land alienation comprised of three types of land use changes (conversion of land into conservation areas, crop farms, and industrial mining projects). Relying on a disaggregated quantitative comparative design of 50 km-by-50 km cells covering the Sahelian region from 2002 to 2019, we find that land alienation is an underlying cause of pastoral conflicts. Moreover, we show that the impact of land alienation on pastoralist violence spreads over long distances and is influenced by state presence and climatic conditions. Our analysis further reveals an overlap between pastoralist violence and armed conflict. Bridging a gap between macro- and micro-level studies, we contribute to shed more light on the determinants of pastoral conflicts, a type of violence that has received scant attention in the geospatial quantitative literature.

Perturbation of soil organic carbon induced by land-use change from primary forest

Abstract The impact of land-use change (LUC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) has been a wide concern of land management policymakers because CO2 emissions induced by LUC have been the second largest carbon source worldwide. However, due to insufficient data quality and limited biome coverage, a global big picture of the impact of LUC on SOC is still not clear. This study conducted a meta-analysis on 288 independent observations sourced from 62 peer-reviewed papers to provide a global summary of the change in SOC after the conversion of primary forests into other land-use types. The conversion of primary forest to cropland resulted in the most severe SOC loss (-33.2%), followed by conversion into plantation forests (-22.3%) and secondary forests (-19.1%). Nonetheless, SOC increased by 9.1% after a conversion from primary forests into pasture. More SOC loss was found at sites with lower precipitation for primary forests converted to cropland and plantation forests. The SOC loss decreased consistently with increasing mean annual temperature (MAT) for all four types of LUC. Moreover, the loss of SOC tended to worsen over time when primary forests are converted to cropland or plantation forests. In contrast, SOC loss recovered over time following conversion to secondary forests. The gain of SOC gradually increased over time after conversion to pastures. To conclude, the changes in SOC are related not only to the land-use type but also to precipitation, temperature and turn years after LUC. Due to limited data, this study focuses on soil profiles within 30 cm depth, and future research should explore SOC dynamics induced by LUC at greater depths. Overall, cases of SOC loss of approximately 30% following deforestation were very common (except for conversion to pasture). Thus we suggest that the loss of SOC following LUC should be carefully considered and monitored in land management.

Construction of Cross-basin Ecological Security Patterns Based on Carbon Sinks and Landscape Connectivity

Artificial water system creation and land use changes have great effects on ecosystems. The construction of cross-basin ecological security patterns based on carbon sinks and landscape connectivity plays a key role in regional ecological environment protection. The linkage area between the Xiang River and the Li River was selected as the research object. Based on the land use data from 2000 to 2020, this study examined the ecological security network of the Xiang-Li connected region using the InVEST model combined with morphological spatial pattern analysis （MSPA） and evaluated the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon storage and ecological security patterns. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the land cover types of the Xiang-Li linkage area were mainly forest land and arable land. The changes of land use types were characterized by decreases in arable land, forest land, and grassland and by increases in watersheds and construction land. ② The carbon storage in the Xiang-Li linkage area was characterized by a blocky distribution, and the high and medium areas were dominant. The carbon stock increased slowly from 2000 to 2010 and decreased dramatically from 2010 to 2020, with a cumulative decrease of 18.32×103 t due to the influence of land use changes. ③ The area of ecological sources （five in total） decreased firstly and then increased, whereas the length of ecological corridors （ten in total） increased firstly and then decreased in the Xiang-Li linkage area. Overall, in the process of urbanization, the distribution of the high ecological resistance value in the Xiang-Li linkage area gradually shifted to the northeast with an expansion, whereas the barycenter of the ecological safety pattern shifted to the southwest. Determining the dynamic distribution and stability of ecological sources by coupling carbon storage patches and landscape patterns can provide a new way to construct ecological security patterns in cross-basin ecosystems.

Spatiotemporal Variation and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems at Multiple Development Stages in Beijing City Based on the Plus and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Models

Terrestrial ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle, and their carbon sequestration capacity is vital for mitigating the impacts of climate change. Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics significantly alter this capacity. This study scrutinizes the LULC evolution within the Beijing metropolitan region from 1992 to 2022, evaluating its implications for ecosystem carbon storage. It also employs the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate LULC patterns under four scenarios for 2035: an Uncontrolled Scenario (UCS), a Natural Evolution Scenario (NES), a Strict Control Scenario (SCS), and a Reforestation and Wetland Expansion Scenario (RWES). The InVEST model is concurrently used to assess and forecast ecosystem carbon storage under each scenario. Key insights from the study are as follows: (1) from 1992 to 2022, Beijing’s LULC exhibited a phased developmental trajectory, marked by an expansion of urban and forested areas at the expense of agricultural land; (2) concurrently, the region’s ecosystem carbon storage displayed a fluctuating trend, peaking initially before declining, with higher storage in the northwest and lower in the central urban zones; (3) by 2035, ecosystem carbon storage is projected to decrease by 1.41 Megatons under the UCS, decrease by 0.097 Megatons under the NES, increase by 1.70 Megatons under the SCS, and increase by 11.97 Megatons under the RWES; and (4) the study underscores the efficacy of policies curtailing construction land expansion in Beijing, advocating for sustained urban growth constraints and intensified afforestation initiatives. This research reveals significant changes in urban land use types and the mechanisms propelling these shifts, offering a scientific basis for comprehending LULC transformations in Beijing and their ramifications for ecosystem carbon storage. It further provides policymakers with substantial insights for the development of strategic environmental and urban planning initiatives.

Assessing the potential of species loss caused by deforestation in a mature subtropical broadleaf forest in central China

Deforestation is a major type of land use change to accommodate growing population, especially in developing countries. The risk of diversity loss due to habitat loss can be estimated using the species-area relationship based on abundance of each species. However, deforestation often occurs before there is any understanding of the impact of deforestation on tree diversity. Here, we assessed the potential effect of forest habitat destruction on the loss of species richness in a mature subtropical broadleaf forest in central China. We surveyed and constructed the species-area relationship for 54 400 m2 plots, and simulated habitat loss scenarios by randomly and aggregately sampling plots. Rank-abundance of the 21 tree species was best fitted by the Zipf-Mandelbrot model, and our sample size was sufficient by the criterion of Hill numbers at orders q = 0, 1, and 2. We found that the number of species lost due to habitat loss was well predicted by the random placement species loss-area loss curve, and was lower than that due to aggregated habitat destruction by less than one species. The probability of losing one species reached 40% when losing 16 plots by aggregated sampling, 10 plots fewer than that by random sampling. Moreover, the probability of losing two species was 10–22 % higher by aggregately sampling than that by randomly sampling when losing 17 – 34 plots (0.68 – 1.36 ha). Considering that aggregated deforestation is common in reality, the results imply that the number of tree species lost due to deforestation could be higher than the theoretical estimation. Our study suggests the importance of assessing the impact of deforestation on tree diversity before selective logging in subtropical forests.

Simplified Methodology for Assessing River Carrying Capacity Based on Land-Use Types

Land conversions or land use changes also become the main cause of the decline in Citarum River conditions. The relationship between river sustainability and its watershed carrying capacity plays a vital role in protecting watersheds to implement sustainable water resources management. Previous studies on river assessment for watershed management have predominantly focused on specific hydrological and/or technical results, rather than considering the process of the development of carrying capacity methodology due to land-use types. Motivated by this fact, the objective of this study is to develop a simplified carrying capacity methodology due to land-use types for sustainable river management by selecting the Upper Citarum Watershed (a main part of Citarum Watershed) located in West Java Province, Indonesia as an example of a study area. The conceptual framework development for watershed carrying capacity due to land-use types was designed the step-by-step methodology standard regarding the sustainable river management. The methodology of this study also used AHP method consisting of screening and selecting attributes, transforming and developing sub-indices, assigning weights, and formulating a runoff cumulative (Ccum) to examine standards and criteria for carrying capacity classification due to the changes of land-use types. The analysis revealed a significant change in the proportions of the various land use types of the study area. The conclusion is it integrates the measures of selected important land-use types to create a single dimensionless number of runoff cumulative and its classification, and a modified approach to communicate information on river status to the public and related policy makers. To advance future studies, it is necessary to develop a comprehensive evaluation and monitoring systems by using GIS-based spatial and temporal analysis.

Impacts of Forest Management‐Induced Productivity Changes on Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

AbstractAnthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under‐investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management‐induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management‐induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management‐induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (−7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (−0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management‐induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management‐induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections.

Changes in gross ecosystem product and its response to land use changes in forest resource dominant regions: A case study of Zixi County, Jiangxi Province, China.

Forests are one of the most important terrestrial ecosystems and play a crucial role in the construction of ecological civilization. Understanding the changes in gross ecosystem product (GEP) and its response to land use change in areas with unique advantages in forest resources is of great significance for promoting sustainable development. We examined the GEP of Zixi County of Jiangxi Province. Based on the theory and method of ecosystem value accounting, and on the basis of the general indicator system for regulating services (water source conservation, soil conservation, oxygen supply, carbon fixation, climate control, flood regulation, water purification, air cleaning, species conservation) and the general indicator system for cultural services (landscape recreation, education), we added negative oxygen ions and health care indicators and introduced forest ecosystem service correction coefficients to construct a GEP indicator system and method with unique advantages in forest resources. We evaluated the spatio-temporal variations of GEP in 2010, 2017 and 2020, and quantified the impact of land use/land cover change on GEP by means of elasticity index and value profit and loss analysis. The results showed that the GEP of Zixi County in 2010, 2017 and 2020 was 16.788 billion, 26.817 billion, and 38.407 billion yuan, respectively. Forests contri-buted the largest amount of GEP, followed by wetland, farmland, grassland, and town. During the study period, the added value of GEP mainly came from forest ecosystems. Land use change had an important impact on GEP. From 2010 to 2020, the total land use change area in the study area was 8501.88 hm2. The amplitude of land use change was grassland (-2811.17 hm2)>town (1428.06 hm2)>forest (1357.67 hm2)>wetland (1031.05 hm2)> farmland (-1005.01 hm2). The absolute changes of various land use types were mainly occurred from 2017 to 2020. The elasticity index of each indicator on forest ecosystems was significantly higher than that of other ecosystems, indicating that GEP had the highest sensitivity to changes in forest area. The results of value profit and loss analysis showed that urban development had reduced GEP to some extent, while the protection of forest and wetland had increased GEP. From 2010 to 2020, the conversion of land use types in Zixi County led to an increase of 1.865 billion yuan in GEP, indicating that land use change in Zixi County had a positive ecological impact on the whole. Our results reflect the green development effect of Zixi County after becoming a national ecological civilization construction demonstration county, which could provide decision-making support for high-quality development, high-level protection and sustainable development and utilization of land resources in the future, and provide reference for other similar areas of GEP accounting.

Interpretable machine learning guided by physical mechanisms reveals drivers of runoff under dynamic land use changes

Human activities continuously impact water balances and cycling in watersheds, making it essential to accurately identify the responses of runoff to dynamic changes in land use types. Although machine learning models demonstrate promise in capturing the intricate interplay between hydrological factors, their “black box” nature makes it challenging to identify the dynamic drivers of runoff. To overcome this challenge, we employed an interpretable machine learning method to inversely deduce the dynamic determinants within hydrological processes. In this study, we analyzed land use changes in the Ningxia section of the middle Yellow River across four periods, laying the foundation for revealing how these changes affect runoff. The sub-watershed attributes and meteorological characteristics generated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used as input variables of the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model to simulate substantial sub-watershed rainfall runoff in the region. The XGBoost was interpreted using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify the dynamic responses of runoff to the land use changes over different periods. The results revealed increasingly frequent interchanges between the land use types in the study area. The XGBoost effectively captured the characteristics of the hydrological processes in the SWAT-derived sub-watersheds. The SHAP analysis results demonstrated that the promoting effect of agricultural land (AGRL) on runoff gradually weakens, while forests (FRST) continuously strengthen their restraining effect on runoff. Relevant land use policies provide empirical support for these findings. Furthermore, the interaction between meteorological variables and land use impacts the runoff generation mechanism and exhibits a threshold effect, with the thresholds for relative humidity (RH), maximum temperature (MaxT), and minimum temperature (MinT) determined to be 0.8, 25 °C, and 15 °C, respectively. This reverse deduction method can reveal hydrological patterns and the mechanisms of interaction between variables, helping to effectively addressing constantly changing human activities and meteorological conditions.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Based on the Markov–FLUS Model in Ezhou City, China

Changes in land use patterns, types, and intensities significantly impact ecosystem services. This study follows the time series logic from history to the expected future to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes in Ezhou and their potential impacts on the ecosystem services value (ESV). The results show that the Markov–FLUS model has strong applicability in predicting the spatial pattern of land use, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.9433 and a FoM value of 0.1080. Between 2000 and 2020, construction land expanded continuously, while water area remained relatively stable, and other land types experienced varying degrees of contraction. Notably, the area of construction land expanded significantly compared to 2000, and it expanded by 70.99% in 2020. Moreover, the watershed area expanded by 9.30% from 2000 to 2010, but there was very little change in the following 10 years. Under the three scenarios, significant differences in land use changes were observed in Ezhou City, driven by human activities, particularly the strong expansion of construction land. In the inertial development scenario, construction land expanded to 313.39 km2 by 2030, representing a 38.30% increase from 2020. Conversely, under the farmland protection scenario, construction land increased to 237.66 km2, a 4.89% rise from 2020. However, in the ecological priority development scenario, the construction land area expanded to 253.59 km2, a 10.13% increase from 2020. Compared to 2020, the ESV losses in the inertia development and farmland protection scenarios were USD 4497.71 and USD 1072.23, respectively, by 2030. Conversely, the ESV under the ecological protection scenario increased by USD 2749.09, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing ecological protection in Ezhou City’s development. This study may provide new clues for the formulation of regional strategies for sustainable land use and ecosystem restoration.

Land Use Optimization and Carbon Reserve Assessment in the Shiyang River Basin

Studying the response relationship and spatial distribution characteristics of carbon reserve and land use change and predicting the change trend of carbon reserve caused by the change of land use type in the future can provide some reference for watershed policy formulation, land use structure adjustment, and the realization of the "two-carbon" goal. Based on the land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, the InVEST model was used to calculate carbon reserves and analyze the change characteristics and to simulate the land use change and its impact on carbon reserves in natural development, urban development, and ecological protection in 2030 with the help of the PLUS model. The study found that ① the main land types in the Shiyang River Basin from 2000 to 2020 were cultivated land, grassland, and unused land. The area of cultivated land, water area, and construction land in the Shiyang River Basin showed a significant increasing trend, and the construction land area increased the most. ② In the natural development scenario of 2030, cultivated land, water area, and construction all increased by 6.15%, 9.56%, and 29.9%, respectively. In the urban development scenario, the area of construction land increased the most. Compared with that in the other two scenarios, the area of forest land and grassland increased in the ecological protection scenarios. ③ The carbon reserves of the Shiyang River Basin from 2000 to 2020 showed a steady increase, with an overall increase of 0.035×108 t. The increased carbon reserves were mainly due to the increase in cultivated land area. ④ In 2030, the carbon reserves of the Shiyang River Basin showed an increasing trend in all three scenarios. The carbon reserves in the three scenarios were 5.65×108, 5.64×108,and 5.73×108 t, respectively, with the largest increase in carbon reserves in the ecological conservation scenario, mainly due to the increase in grassland and woodland. The results showed that the expansion of construction land was the main cause of the loss of carbon reserves. If effective ecological protection measures are taken, the carbon reserves in the Shiyang River Basin will be improved, and the problem of the loss of carbon reserves caused by economic development can be solved.

Research on Sustainable Land Use in Alpine Meadow Region Based on Coupled Coordination Degree Model—From Production–Living–Ecology Perspective

Changes in land use types in alpine meadow areas have significant impacts on the ecological environment in alpine areas. Exploring land use change is crucial for land use management and optimization in alpine regions. Thus, it is necessary to analyze land use evolution and its drivers in alpine meadow regions from a production–living–ecology space (PLES) perspective by using remote sensing data. We first constructed the PLES evaluation system for Gannan. Then, we analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and coupling degree of PLES in the study area. Finally, the driving factors affecting PLES were explored with geodetector. The conclusions of the study reveal that the distribution of productive and ecological spaces is large and concentrated, while the distribution of living spaces is more decentralized. The PLES was mainly concentrated in the area above 2500 m but below 4000 m and with a slope of 40° or less. During the study period, the area of production space showed a decreasing trend, while the areas of living and ecological space both showed increasing trends, primarily occurring at the expense of production space. DEM and GDP were the main factors affecting the distribution of PLES. The coupling level and the degree of coupling coordination were relatively stable in general, showing a pattern of “high in the east and low in the west”. The study provides technical support and a theoretical basis for the future planning of land space and ecological environment optimization in the alpine meadow regions.

The Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Driving Mechanisms of the Ecological Barrier Transition Zone in the Western Jilin, China

Land use change monitoring is a common theme in achieving sustainable development, while research on ecological barrier transition zones is relatively scarce. This study quantitatively analyzes the characteristics and patterns of land use change in Western Jilin, located in the transitional zone between the northeast forest belt and the northern sand prevention belt, from 1990 to 2020. Land dynamic change index and transition matrix are used to quantify the rates and intensities, and conversions between different land use types over time, respectively. Geodetector is adopted to analyze the impact of 12 factors on 12 types of land use change, such as using the factor detector to quantify the influence of temperature on the conversion from cropland to unused land. The results indicate that from 1990 to 2020, there have been noticeable changes in the area of various land use types in western Jilin. However, the conversion types are relatively limited, mainly involving interchanges between cropland, grassland, unused land, and water bodies. The cropland has increased by 20% overall, but 16% of that increase occurred from 1990–2000. The woodland area has steadily increased at a growth rate of 5–8% from 2000–2020, aligning with sustainable development strategies. Water bodies and grasslands are undergoing continuous recovery, and a positive growth trend is predicted to emerge by 2030. The built-up land is steadily expanding. The influencing factors vary for different types of land-use change. In a short time, policy factors play a significant role in land use, such as the implementation of the “River-lake Connection Project”, which has helped to reduce water-body fragmentation and enabled the stable recovery of water resources. However, in the long term, multiple topographic, climatic, and anthropogenic factors exhibit interactive effects in the land use change process in the area. Governments can take corresponding measures and management policies based on the influence of these factors to allocate and plan land use rationally.

Evolution and influencing factors of coastal resilience in the East China Sea

The coastal zone serves as a crucial hub for economic and population concentration. Amid the context of high-intensity development and global climate change, uncertain risks from diverse sources—including extreme weather events (i.e., high temperatures, typhoons, and excessive precipitation), natural disasters (i.e., floods, tsunamis, landslides, and mudslides), and societal disruptions (i.e., economic crises and viral diseases)—are escalating rapidly. Enhancing coastal resilience to minimize these risk impacts is progressively becoming a mandatory requirement for the sustainable development of coastal zones. However, existing research primarily focuses on distinct disasters, the ecological environment, or specific socio-economic aspects, thereby lacking a comprehensive theoretical framework and thorough analysis of the factors influencing coastal resilience. Here, we construct a theoretical framework centered on the unique traits and processes of coastal resilience, analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of coastal resilience from a grid and administrative division standpoint, and utilize geographic detectors to determine the factors influencing coastal resilience while considering the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). Our findings indicate that: (1) Coastal resilience in the East China Sea (ECS) initially declined but then increased, transitioning from a lower to a medium level. Barring the pressure index, other dimensional indices had an upward trend; (2) Continuous improvements were observed in coastal resilience across different land uses. Forests, waters, and oceans demonstrated higher resilience levels than other lands, with construction land resilience developing swiftly. The effect of changes in land use types on coastal resilience showed a rapid initial increase and subsequent decrease; (3) The change pattern of coastal resilience in the ECS is mainly unchanged and slightly increased. Areas with the most drastic changes were concentrated in Shanghai, northern Zhejiang, and central Fujian, with the main change patterns continuously rising; (4) The primary factors influencing coastal resilience in the ECS included gross domestic product and infrastructure construction level. Advanced industrial structure, technological and educational prowess, and effective government management are important determinants of coastal resilience development. The significance of human factors continues to grow. Our findings offer valuable insights for optimizing national spatial planning of coastal zones, responding to internal and external impacts, achieving resilient coastal zones, and implementing a comprehensive sustainable management approach.

Carbon surplus or carbon deficit under land use transformation in China?

With the progression of industrialization and urbanization, terrestrial ecosystems have experienced varying degrees of degradation in their carbon sequestration capabilities, leading to functional loss in some regions. Consequently, the issue of reducing emissions and enhancing carbon sinks, especially in addressing the carbon imbalance brought on by urban and industrial developments, has become a focal point for international organizations and the academic community. Existing studies have separately investigated the effects of changes in single land use types, such as built-up land, forest land, and cropland, on carbon emissions or carbon sequestration. However, few studies have discussed carbon emissions and carbon sequestration within the same framework. This study, based on remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020, utilizes spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial Durbin model to reveal the long-term trends in land use intensity and carbon balance in China. It was found that the carbon balance index decreased annually by 3.42%, from 0.2406 to 0.0760 during that period. In particular, the eastern and central regions of China exhibited increasingly evident carbon deficits, with most areas along the southeastern coast transitioning from a carbon surplus to a carbon deficit. Over two decades, China’s land use intensity and carbon balance developed a stronger negative spatial dependence. The spatial match and mismatch between land use intensity and carbon deficit are the primary clustering types for their spatial correlation. Each unit increase in land use intensity decreased the local city carbon balance by 0.755 but raised the carbon balance in adjacent areas by 2.740. This indicates that land use intensity impacts the local carbon balance negatively but benefits neighboring regions. There is also evident spatial inequality in different economic zones, with the strongest impact in the Northeast, followed by the Western, Eastern, and Central regions. The resolution of these issues reveals the spatial inequalities and remote driving effects of land use transformation on carbon balance across different scales, from the “entire region” to “economic divisions”. The results of this study provide theoretical and empirical evidence for emissions reduction and carbon sequestration in cities at different levels of land use intensity.

The impact of land use on eco-environment in the Dianchi Basin

(1) Studying the dynamic correlation between land use and the eco-environment in the Dianchi Basin is important for improving the basin's spatial layout and enhancing ecological development and conservation; (2) Through dynamic analysis and comprehensive evaluation of land use, the introduction of ecological and environmental quality index, and the use of FLUS models, the impacts on eco-environments in the Dianchi Basin for the recent 20 years were analyzed; (3) The past two decades witnessed a constant increase in the construction land in the Dianchi Basin and a decline in the farmland at an average annual rate of 0.93 %; The utilization level of land in the Dianchi Basin presented a negative correlation with the quality of the area's eco-environment, which reduces first and then increases; When natural production becomes a priority, both the construction land and farmland have witnessed growth. However, when ecological protection becomes a priority, it is projected that by 2035, the Dianchi Basin will achieve its highest eco-environmental quality index; (4) Studying how the change of land use types affects eco-environment is crucial for optimizing the current allocation of land resources and promoting sustainable development in the basin.

Dynamic evolution and simulation of habitat quality in arid regions: A case study of the Hexi region, China

Habitat quality is an important characterization of the health level of ecosystems. Unreasonable development activities have led to a degradation in habitat quality and loss of biodiversity, especially in the arid areas of northwest China where the ecological environment is fragile. In this study, we focused on the arid area in northwestern China (Hexi region). By integrating the InVEST model and PLUS model, we evaluated the dynamics of habitat quality in the Hexi region from 1990 to 2020 under the background of land use change, and simulated the habitat quality in this area in 2030 under different scenarios. The results showed that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the areas of farmland, waterbodies, and built-up land increased by 2343.26 km2, 416.42 km2 and 739.28 km2 respectively, and the area of unutilized land decreased by 3020.36 km2. In terms of changes in land use type, unutilized land changed the most. (2) From 1990 to 2020, the habitat quality increased by 1.07 %, spatially showed a high distribution pattern along the Qilian Mountains and a low distribution pattern in the remaining area. The spatial change was dominated by stabilization, and the rank change was mainly from poor habitat quality areas to good habitat quality areas. (3) Under the scenario of natural development (ND), the future built-up land area will rapidly increase by 989 km2. In the ecological protection (EP) scenario, the areas of forest and grassland will increase by 10476 km2, the expansion of cultivated land and built-up land will be effectively curbed, and the habitat quality will be greatly improved. (4) In 2020–2030 (ND scenario), land use change will cause a certain degree of degradation of habitat quality. In 2020–2030 (EP scenario), land use change will promote the improvement of habitat quality. In addition, through this study, we provide a new method to quantify the relationship between land use and habitat quality.