Changes In Winter Precipitation Research Articles

Modelling local distribution of an Arctic dwarf shrub indicates an important role for remote sensing of snow cover

Despite the intensive research effort directed at predicting the effects of climate change on plants in the Arctic, the impact of environmental change on species' distributions remains difficult to quantify. Predictive habitat distribution models provide a tool to predict the geographical distribution of a species based on the ecological gradients that determine it, and to estimate how the distribution of a species might respond to environmental change. Here, we present a model of the distribution of the dwarf shrub Dryas octopetala L. around the fjord Kongsfjorden, Svalbard. The model was built from field observations, an Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) image, a GIS database containing environmental data at a spatial resolution of 20 m, and relied on generalized linear models (GLMs). We used a logistic GLM to predict the occurrence of the species and a Gaussian GLM to predict its abundance at the sites where it occurred. Temperature and topographical exposure and inclination of a site appeared to promote both the occurrence and the abundance of D. octopetala. The occurrence of the species was additionally negatively influenced by snow and water cover and topographical exposure towards the north, whereas the abundance of the species appeared lower on calciferous substrates. Validation of the model using independent data and the resulting distribution map showed that they successfully recover the distribution of D. octopetala in the study area ( κ = 0.46, AUC = 0.81 for the logistic GLM [ n = 200], r 2 = 0.29 for the Gaussian GLM [ n = 36]). The results further highlight that models predicting the local distribution of plant species in an Arctic environment would greatly benefit from data on the distribution and duration of snow cover. Furthermore, such data are necessary to make quantitative estimates for the impact of changes in temperature and winter precipitation on the distribution of plants in the Arctic.

Responses of Grassland Production to Single and Multiple Global Environmental Changes

In this century, increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are expected to cause warmer surface temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. At the same time, reactive nitrogen is entering natural systems at unprecedented rates. These global environmental changes have consequences for the functioning of natural ecosystems, and responses of these systems may feed back to affect climate and atmospheric composition. Here, we report plant growth responses of an ecosystem exposed to factorial combinations of four expected global environmental changes. We exposed California grassland to elevated CO2, temperature, precipitation, and nitrogen deposition for five years. Root and shoot production did not respond to elevated CO2 or modest warming. Supplemental precipitation led to increases in shoot production and offsetting decreases in root production. Supplemental nitrate deposition increased total production by an average of 26%, primarily by stimulating shoot growth. Interactions among the main treatments were rare. Together, these results suggest that production in this grassland will respond minimally to changes in CO2 and winter precipitation, and to small amounts of warming. Increased nitrate deposition would have stronger effects on the grassland. Aside from this nitrate response, expectations that a changing atmosphere and climate would promote carbon storage by increasing plant growth appear unlikely to be realized in this system.

Quantification of Holocene lake-level changes in Finnish Lapland using a cladocera – lake depth transfer model

During recent years, numerous studies dealing with Holocene lake level fluctuations have been conducted in Finnish Lapland. However, no quantification of lake level variations exists to date. Here, we applied a recently developed modern cladocera – lake depth transfer model to subfossil cladocerans analysed from three small and shallow (< 6 m) kettle-hole lakes in northwestern Finnish Lapland to provide estimates of the amplitudes of long-term lake-level changes in the region. The quantitative inferences were compared to pollen, charcoal and geochemical records from one of the study sites. The lake levels were inferred to be high during the early Holocene; they faced marked reduction up to 4–6 m in the mid-Holocene (≈7000–4000 cal yr BP), and rose again during the latter part of the Holocene. There is some indication of lowered lake levels around 1500 cal yr BP, but interpretation of such small-scale changes is hazardous due to large prediction errors in the initial cladoceran model. The overall pattern of the Holocene lake level variation generally followed the regional changes in climate humidity as reconstructed in previous studies by means of other sedimentary proxy indicators, such as pollen and oxygen isotopic compositions. We postulate that changes in winter precipitation may have had a greater influence on lake-levels than variations in summer precipitation or evaporation.

Ecosystem respiration responses to experimental manipulations of winter and summer precipitation in a Mixedgrass Prairie, WY, USA

Changes in timing or amount of precipitation may be of great consequence for carbon cycling in the Mixedgrass Prairie of N. America, because CO2 fixation and efflux are tightly coupled to soil water properties. The objective of our project was to quantify how ecosystem respiration (Re) responds to experimental changes in winter and summer precipitation in a Mixedgrass Prairie using in situ field manipulations of snow depth and summer rain. Our study was conducted at the USDA-ARS High Plains Grasslands Research Station, west of Cheyenne, Wyoming. We installed three replicated 50 m snow fences to increase winter snow on the leeward side of the snow fence and experimentally manipulated summer precipitation by either increasing (+50%) or decreasing (−50%) precipitation amounts. We also measured ambient conditions. Re rates in May were around 2 g C m−2 d−1 for all treatments and increased to their greatest values in June, up to 10 g C m−2 d−1, with the ambient treatment having the largest flux rates. There were no treatment effects during the early summer, but by midsummer, Re rates were least in the reduced rainfall plots and greatest in the snow plots. Soil moisture and gross photosynthesis had strong influence on the daily Re rates, but soil temperature had little correlation with daily Re rates. In summary, the Re rates in this Mixedgrass Prairie are strongly influenced by changes in precipitation, especially winter snow accumulation. Thus, carbon cycle estimates under future climate change scenarios need to include not only the affects of changes in summer rain, but also, the consequences of deep snow in winter and itsȁ9 affect on carbon cycling processes in winter and subsequent summers.

Utilizing physical sediment variability in glacier-fed lakes for continuous glacier reconstructions during the Holocene, northern Folgefonna, western Norway

The maritime plateau glacier of northern Folgefonna in western Norway has a short (subdecadal) response time to climatic shifts, and is therefore well suited for reconstructing high-resolution glacier fluctuations. The reconstruction presented here is based on physical parameters of glaciolacustrine sediments retrieved from two glacier-fed lakes and a peat bog north of the ice cap. Bulk density and modelled glacier net mass balance for the last 200 years show a remarkably similar pattern, where maximum sediment yield lags the glacier net mass balance by-10 years. The record of glacier variations has been transferred into an equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) variation curve. Glaciers respond primarily to changes in summer temperature and winter precipitation. At present there is a high correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and measured (since the early 1960s) net mass balance on maritime glaciers in western Norway (r=-0.8). Reconstructed glacier variations from maritime western Norway are therefore considered indicative of the strength of the westerly airflow associated with NAO during the Holocene. The early phase of mid-Holocene glacier growth (5200 cal. yr BP) was characterized by gradual glacier expansion culminating in the first Subatlantic glacial event at 2300 cal. yr BP The climate during the last 2200 years has favoured increased glacier activity at Folgefonna. High-amplitude shifts in ELA may be explained by unstable modes of the westerlies causing significant variability of winter precipitation. During the last 2000 years, Folgefonna expanded and decayed with significant decadal variability. During the latest period of the‘Mediaeval Warm Epoch’, Folgefonna advanced. The Neoglacial maximum, however, was reached during the‘Little Ice Age’ at AD 1750 and AD 1870. The northern Folgefonna glacial record is compared to other Holocene glacier records in Scandinavia.

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.

Connection between Eastern Mediterranean seasonal mean 500 hPa height and sea‐level pressure patterns and the spatial rainfall distribution over Israel

AbstractThis study introduces a new conceptual model to explain the recently observed changes in winter precipitation over Israel. The model is based on our earlier published work (where a connection was reported between the occurrence of major rain days (MRDs) in different parts of the country and three prototypes, A, B and C, of the 500 hPa trough axis orientation prevailing on MRDs) and on additional results obtained by an extension of that work in the present paper.The first part of the present study is devoted to the extension of our early work. Composite techniques have been used on National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)–National Meteorological Center grid‐point data for the rain seasons 1981–82 to 1985–86 to identify the sea‐level pressure (SLP) distribution associated with each of the three 500 hPa prototypes. Prototype A (trough axis oriented from northwest to southeast, earlier shown to be associated with MRDs in northern Israel) was found in the present work to be associated with a surface low in the vicinity of Antalya, southern Turkey. Prototype B (trough axis oriented from north to south, earlier shown to be associated with MRDs in central Israel) was found in the present work to be associated with a surface low over southeastern Turkey. Prototype C (trough axis oriented from northeast to southwest, earlier shown to be associated with MRDs in southern Israel) was found to be associated with elevated surface pressure over northwestern Turkey and a trough over eastern Turkey.In the second part of the study we used our results to construct a conceptual model of the mechanism responsible for the relative increases in seasonal (winter) rainfall over the southern part of the country and the decrease over the north. Using National Centers for Environmental Prediction–NCAR reanalysis data for the period 1982–2000, we demonstrated that the direct atmospheric agent responsible for this change in the spatial rainfall distribution is an increased frequency of occurrence of 500 hPa troughs oriented from northeast to southwest (Prototype C) accompanied by prominent positive SLP anomalies centred over Turkey. Our analysis further shows that these atmospheric systems are consistent with the persistence of a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the one hand and with latest IPCC predictions of precipitation patterns over the eastern Mediterranean basin on the other hand. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

Mid-Holocene climates of the Americas: a dynamical response to changed seasonality

Simulations of the climatic response to mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) orbital forcing with two coupled ocean–atmosphere models (FOAM and CSM) show enhancement of monsoonal precipitation in parts of the American Southwest, Central America and northernmost South America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The enhanced onshore flow that brings precipitation into Central America is caused by a northward displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone, driven by cooling of the equatorial and warming of the northern subtropical and mid-latitude ocean. Ocean feedbacks also enhance precipitation over the American Southwest, although the increase in monsoon precipitation there is largely driven by increases in land-surface temperature. The northward shift in the equatorial precipitation band that causes enhanced precipitation in Central America and the American Southwest has a negative feedback effect on monsoonal precipitation in northern South America. The simulations demonstrate that mid-Holocene aridity in the mid-continent of North America is dynamically linked to the orbitally induced enhancement of the summer monsoon in the American Southwest, with a spatial structure (wet in the Southwest and dry in the mid-continent) similar to that found in strong monsoon years today. Changes in winter precipitation along the west coast of North America, in Central America and along the Gulf Coast, caused by southward-displacement of the westerly storm tracks, indicate that changes in the Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon also play a role in regional climate changes during the mid-Holocene. Although the simulations with FOAM and CSM differ in detail, the general mechanisms and patterns are common to both. The model results thus provide a coherent dynamical explanation for regional patterns of increased or decreased aridity shown by vegetation, lake status and aeolian data from the Americas.

Holocene glacier fluctuations of Flatebreen and winter-precipitation changes in the Jostedalsbreen region, western Norvay, based on glaciolacustrine sediment records

The history of Holocene glacier variations of Flatebreen, an independent glacier close to the SW part of the Jostedalsbreen ice cap, has been reconstructed from lacustrine sediments in the proglacial lake Jarbuvatnet. The sedimentary succession shows evidence of three maini episodes of Holocene glacier expansion. The first is recorded in the basal part of the core up to 370 cm. According to the age/depth relationship in the sediment core (based on 12 AMS radiocarbon dates), this glacier expansion episode terminated about 10200 cal. yr BP. The second major glacier phase lasted from 8400 to 8100 cal. yr BP, while the third was initiated around 4000 cal. yr BP and has continued up to the present. At 43 cm in the core, the medium silt content increases significantly, accompanied by a minor increase in the sand content. This textural change is interpreted as the first time that the tenninus of Flatebreen extended inlto an] upstream lake at 1083 m a.s.l. The age model suggests that this event took place around 800 cal. yr BP (-AD 1150), as a response to the initial ‘Little Ice Age’ glacier expansion after the ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’. By using a Holocene-inferred summer-temperature curve from central southern Norway in the exponential relationship between annual winter precipitation (snow) and ablation-season temperature at the ELA, periods of higher winter precipitation than the 1961-90 nomial in the Jostedalsbreen region are inferred for 9700-9400, 9200-8300, 8200-6500, 5700-5100, 4700-4600, 4500-4300, 3800-3000, 2100-1800, 1600-1300 and 1200-1000 cal. yr BP, and from 900 cal. yr BP to the present. The intervening periods of lower than normal winter precipitation correlate with periods of enhanced ice-rafting in the North Atlantic.

Influence of snowfall and melt timing on tree growth in subarctic Eurasia

The causes of a reduced sensitivity of high-latitude tree growth to variations in summer temperature for recent decades1,2, compared to earlier this century, are unknown. This sensitivity change is problematic, in that relationships between tree-ring properties and temperature are widely used for reconstructing past climate. Here we report an analysis of tree-ring and climate data from the forest–tundra zone, in combination with a mechanistic model of tree-ring growth, to argue that an increasing trend of winter precipitation over the past century in many subarctic regions3,4,5 led to delayed snow melt in these permafrost environments. As a result, the initiation of cambial activity (necessary for the formation of wood cells) has been delayed relative to the pre-1960 period in the Siberian subarctic. Since the early 1960s, less of the growth season has been during what had previously been the period of maximal growth sensitivity to temperature. This shift results not only in slower growth, but also in a reduced correlation between growth and temperature. Our results suggest that changes in winter precipitation should be considered in seeking explanations for observed changes in the timing of the ‘spring greening’ of high-latitude forests6, and should be taken into account in the study of the role of the Siberian subarctic forest in the global carbon cycle.

Paleoclimatic implications based on equilibrium-line altitude depressions of reconstructed Younger Dryas and Holocene cirque glaciers in inner Nordfjord, western Norway

Relative to a present cirque glacier in innner Nordfjord, western Norway, equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) depressions for reconstructed cirque glaciers formed during the Younger Dryas (11,000–10,000 yr B.P.), the Erdalen Event (9100±200 yr B.P.) and the Little Ice Age (mid-18th century) are calculated by the use of accumulation-area ratio (AAR), and compared to the corresponding values for plateau glaciers. The temperature-precipitation ELA (TP-ELA), as reflected by plateau glaciers, gives considerably larger ELA depressions than use of the temperature-precipitation-wind ELA (TPW-ELA) for cirque glaciers. ELA depressions during the Younger Dryas, Erdalen Event and the Little Ice Age thus strongly indicate that cirque glaciers are much more sensitive to changes in winter precipitation than plateau glaciers. The difference in ELA depressions of contemporaneous plateau and cirque glaciers during the Younger Dryas, Erdalen Event and the Little Ice Age suggests that winter precipitation was reduced to 59±7, 71±6 and 88±7% compared to present values. Taken into account the reduced winter precipitation, the corresponding mean ablation-season temperature depressions were probably 4.3±0.3, 3.0± 0.2 0.3 and 1.4± 0.3 0.2 ° C , respectively.

Snowpack Ion Accumulation and Loss in a Basin Draining to Lake Superior

The objective of this study was to relate winter precipitation ionic inputs, snowpack retention, and change in first-order stream chemistry with spring snowpack melt. During winter 1982–83, measurement of precipitation inputs, snowpack concentration and loading, and streamwater concentration and discharge of Ca2+, K+, H+, NO3−, and SO42− from a 176-ha watershed reveals that only H+ might be lost from the snowpack before first thaw. Above-freezing soil temperature beneath the snowpack may be a factor in H+ loss. An initial 1-d thaw resulted in loss of over one third (6 eq∙ha−1) of the snowpack Ca2+. Over one half the snowpack load of K+, H+, NO3−, and SO42−, was lost in a subsequent midwinter freeze–thaw period. Snowpack loading of ionic species was reduced by 70–90% before peak spring melting and stream discharge. Ecosystem H+ retention and biological uptake of NO3− further mitigate ionic "pulses" in streamwater. Sulfate discharge exceeds bulk inputs, which suggests significant dry deposition input and little forest soil retention of this anion. The snowpack was relatively small, which limits wider application of these results to the region.

Highest telescope

Determination of carbon isotope (δ13C) values of tree-ring tissue is a well-established method to reconstruct past climate variability at annual resolution, but such records are limited in tropical latitudes due to the lack of well-defined annual growth bands. Recent work has demonstrated the potential for high-resolution, intra-ring δ13C records to help define ring boundaries in tropical environments and provide additional climate information at sub-annual resolution. Here we present a high-resolution, intra-ring carbon isotope (δ13C) record of the Hawaiian endemic species Sophora chrysophylla (also known as “māmane”) in order to assess the ability to extract seasonal climate information from these drought tolerant trees. Tree cores were sampled from high-elevation māmane trees growing on the west side of Mauna Kea, Big Island. Across our entire dataset (1986–2008), we identified a notable decreasing linear trend in the δ13C record of 0.061‰/year that can be attributed to changes in the δ13C value of atmospheric CO2 and pCO2 concentration associated with fossil fuel burning. Correcting for these affects yields a nearly flat δ13C record with a slope of − 0.0075‰/year, suggesting no long-term trends in climate across the study period. We observe a quasi-periodic change in the δ13C values [Δ(δ13C)] measured within each ring that averages 1.09 ± 0.50‰ (± 1σ, n = 23) in amplitude. These variations are interpreted as the intra-annual isotopic signal in tree photosynthesis. The δ13C variability correlates with the visible ring structure of the sample, suggesting the presence of annual growth rings at this tropical high elevation site.We applied these data to a model that relates the Δ(δ13C) value to seasonal changes in precipitation in order to reconstruct annual changes in total summer (May through October) and winter (November through April) precipitation at the site. Across the 23-year record (1986–2008; n = 579 δ13C measurements), reconstructed values for the ratio of summer to winter precipitation, total summer precipitation, and total winter precipitation correlate well with rainfall data collected from a nearby weather station (r = 0.65, 0.36, and 0.70, respectively). These results support application of this model to reconstruct inter-annual changes in seasonal precipitation from long-term tree-ring chronologies. They also demonstrate the potential of using māmane δ13C for future long-term climate reconstructions.