Changing Trends Research Articles

Spatio-temporal land use/land cover change analysis and assessment of urban heat island in Ghana: A focus on the Greater Accra Region

The expansion of cities coupled with economic development over the years has transformed many locations into hotspots for massive urban populace. The Greater Accra Region which is the capital city of Ghana is no exception. The urban population growth rate in the region has expanded extensively at the expense of increasingly vegetation cover. As a result, there is an increasing need to investigate urban resilience, land use/land cover (LULC) change, and urban heat islands (UHI) dynamics in the region. The aim of this study is to analyze multi-spectral Landsat images of 2000 and 2020 to examine the LULC change and the UHI trend across the Greater Accra Region of Ghana. The results from the analysis show a significant change in the spatial trend of land surface temperature (LST) and UHI between the years 2000 and 2020. Spatial distribution of LST from 0°C to 28°C and 17°C to 33°C in the years 2000 and 2020 respectively were observed. Urban areas dominated more than half of the study area in 2020, covering 85% (equivalent to 3160 sq. km), and reflecting a 20% increase from the year 2000 to 2020. During the same period, sparse and dense forested areas decreased by 10% (373 sq. km) and 4% (146 sq. km) with a 5% reduction in bare land (equivalent to 177 sq. km). The spatio-temporal analysis revealed a significant surge in the population of urban areas within the study area. The UHI areas also increased from 13.20% in 2000 to 18.20% in 2020. On the other hand, non-UHI areas decreased from 86.80% to 81.80% during the same period. The successful contribution of this research demonstrates the usefulness of spatial models as tools in generating LULC maps for assessing UHI to facilitate future sustainable city planning.

Policy, innovation, market or behavior driven effects: energy green transition and environmental management in Chinese heterogeneous cities

Energy green transition (EGT) is currently one of the main measures for countries around the world to address the contradiction between economic growth and increasingly deteriorating environmental and climate issues. Cities are the center of energy consumption. The key to EGT lies in urban energy green transition. Therefore, the focus of this study is on the driving mechanism of urban EGT. Firstly, the spatial-temporal characteristic of EGT in Chinese heterogeneous cities is analyzed by using methods such as gravity model. Secondly, the possible paths includes policy driven, innovation driven, market driven, and behavior driven for urban EGT are discussed through theoretical analysis. Finally, combined with panel data of 236 Chinese cities in 2007-2022, this study empirically analyzes the complex driving mechanism of urban EGT. Results show that: (1) The EGT in Chinese cities is continuing. From the perspective of urban heterogeneous, EGT in 1-tier and 2-tier cities is significantly faster than that in 3-, 4-, and 5-tier cities. The EGT speed in eastern cities is the fastest, while that in northeastern cities is the slowest. The difficulty of EGT in energy resource-based cities is actually the greatest. From the perspective of spatial features, the spatial center of EGT in Chinese cities generally shows a changing trend from northwest to southeast. (2) Policy driven, innovation driven, market driven, and behavior driven constitute the complex driving mechanism of urban EGT, and policy driven is the primary driving force for this round of EGT. (3) Positive effect of economic development level and education level improvement on EGT in Chinese cities is significant while resource endowment and population agglomeration level exhibit significant inhibitory effects. (4) There are significant differences in the core driving force for EGT in heterogeneous cities. Both policy driven effect and market driven effect have the highest impact in 1- and 2-tier cities. Innovation driven effect, market driven effect, and behavior driven effect are only significant in eastern and central cities. In energy resource-based cities, innovation driven effect of green innovation is not significant. This study can assist government departments better in formulating relevant policies to support energy transition, promote technological innovation, design market mechanisms, and guide energy consumption behavior.

Reflecting the aging behavior of polystyrene nanoplastics in the seawater through Young's modulus by atomic force microscope

Nanoplastics (NPs), with different physicochemical properties at various aging stages, have severe impacts on human health and the ecological environment. Restricted by the traditional technique, such as time-consuming, sample concentration, and the destructive of the sample, it is hard to precisely determine their aging behavior. Interestingly, we found that the nano-mechanical properties of the NPs were largely influenced by the oxidation and the cross-linking, however, their deep relationship remains lacking. Herein, this study investigates the aging behaviors of commodity plastics, microplastics and NPs in seawater via testing the changes of the physicochemical properties by combination of atomic force microscope. The results indicated that the changing behavior of Young’s modulus (YM) for NPs exhibited distinctly with a rapid to a slow growth trend, an initial slow increase followed by an acceleration for microplastics, while there was almost no significant change for commodity plastics. And it was further validated by the changing trend of hydroxyl index and degree of cross-linking of the aged plastics with different sizes, which undoubtedly showed a consistent trend with the YM changes. These findings provide a new perspective for measuring the degree of cross-linking of aged NPs.

Factors Associated With Transmission Across Three Waves of SARS-CoV-2 in a Prospective Community-Based Study of Households With School-Aged Children-Dane County, Wisconsin, 2020-2022.

Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is a driver of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding factors that contribute to secondary infection risks (SIRs) can define changing trends and inform public health policies. The ORegon CHild Absenteeism due to Respiratory Disease Study (ORCHARDS) prospectively monitors respiratory viruses within the Oregon School District (OSD) in southcentral Wisconsin. Households with students who had ≥ 2 respiratory symptoms were eligible and opted to participate in ORCHARDS. Between October 28, 2020, and May 16, 2022, all household members provided self-collected nasal specimens on days 0, 7, and 14 for SARS-CoV-2 detection using real-time reverse-transcription-polymerase chain reaction. We used logistic regression to investigate individual- and household-level characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Overall, 127 households comprising 572 individuals (48% female; 52% male; 0.4% nonbinary; 77% ≥ 18 years) had at least one detection of SARS-CoV-2. The overall SIR was 47% and decreased over time (pre-Delta = 72% [95% CI: 58%-83%]; Delta = 51% [40%-63%]; and Omicron = 41% [36%-47%]). Odds of household transmission were 63% lower during the Omicron period compared with the pre-Delta period (OR = 0.36 [95% CI: 0.13-0.94] p = 0.037). Greater household density (members/bedroom) was significantly associated with household transmission during the Omicron period (OR = 6.8, [2.19-21.37] p = 0.001). Index case age, illness severity, and individual symptoms were not significantly associated with odds of household transmission. Greater household density was associated with a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but the risk declined over time with subsequent variants. Interplay between variants, prior infection, and individual/household factors may identify modifiable factors (e.g., behavior and vaccination) to reduce future transmission risk.

Research on reactor power prediction of nuclear power plant based on multivariate optimization GRU model

In the operation of nuclear power plants, the accurate prediction of power change trends is crucial for ensuring safety and stability. In this work, a ML-GRU-RS method, based on model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML), gate recurrent unit (GRU), and random search optimization, is proposed for the long-term prediction of key parameters of nuclear power plants. This method combines the fast adaptability of MAML, the time series data processing capability of GRU, and the optimization efficiency of random search to achieve high-precision predictions under varying power conditions. The results demonstrate that this method can effectively predict the future trends of key parameters in nuclear power plants. The ability of operators to anticipate these trends has been significantly enhanced, contributing to the overall safety of the nuclear power plants.

Protection of understory vegetation by deer exclosure fences prevent the reduction of beech growth due to soil erosion

Overbrowsing by ungulates has degraded understory vegetation in worldwide forests. Understory degradation causes soil erosion and environmental degradation, causing mature tree decline. Although ungulate exclosure fences are installed to protect vegetation, their effectiveness in preventing tree decline associated with soil degradation remains unclear. We aimed to fill this gap on slopes of Mt. Shiraga, Japan, where sika deer have overbrowsed for >20 years. Tree-ring records in 1960–2022 for eight beeches per each of inside and outside fences were analyzed to compare stem basal area increment (BAI, cm−2 yr−1) and trend change timings for BAI (i.e., break-point). Soil properties, exposed root height (ERH) as cumulative soil erosion index, and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) as water limitation proxy were also compared. Compared with areas inside fences, areas outside fences had no understory vegetation, higher ERH, and higher soil hardness and moisture. BAI outside fences turned their growth trend from positive to negative since 2004, but not inside fences. Break-point of BAI outside fences matched the understory degradation period in the field. The long-term BAI trend (i.e., regression slope of BAI) after the break-point was negatively related to ERH but not to soil properties (e.g., soil hardness and moisture). Furthermore, BAI outside fences was negatively related to iWUE after the break-point, whereas BAI inside fences was not. These results indicate that the maintenance of understory by fencing prevents overbrowsing-associated mature tree decline through mitigating root exposure and related water limitation, despite the potential of water competition with understory.

Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Biodiversity Changes in Northeast China

Vegetation plays a vital role in connecting ecosystems and climate features. The biodiversity of vegetation is one of the most important features for evaluating ecosystems and it is becoming increasingly important with the threat of global warming. To clarify the effects of climate change on forest biodiversity in Northeast China, time-series NDVI data, meteorological data and land cover data from 2010 to 2021 were acquired, and the forest biodiversity of Northeast China was evaluated. The effect of climate change on forest biodiversity was analyzed, and the results indicated that the forest biodiversity features increased from west to east in Northeast China. There was also an increasing trend from 2010 to 2021, but the rate at which forest biodiversity was changing varied with different forest types of Northeast China, as different climatic factors had a different impact on forest biodiversity in different forest types. Average annual temperature, annual accumulated precipitation, CO2 fertilization and solar radiation were the main factors affecting forest biodiversity changing trends. This research indicated the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems, as it emphasized with evidence that climate change has a catalytic effect on forest biodiversity in Northeast China.

Burden of diabetes mellitus in Weifang: Changing trends in prevalence and deaths from 2010 to 2021.

The objective of this study is to analyze the death characteristics and burden of disease (BOD) in diabetes mellitus (DM) patients in Weifang from 2010 to 2021. The findings will serve as a foundational data source and theoretical framework for public health administrative departments in the formulation of DM-related policies. The annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of the disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of life lost (YLL), and years lived with disability (YLD) in DM residents from 2010 to 2021 were analyzed using the Joinpoint software to reflect the changing trend of the BOD in DM patients. Additionally, we conducted an analysis of the various causes of death among these patients and compared BOD in diabetic patients with different backgrounds. From 2010 to 2021, the burden of disease, which includes DALY, YL, and YLD, has been increasing among patients with DM in Weifang. It is noteworthy that the burden of disease is particularly pronounced among male patients and those aged 75 or above. Additionally, it is observed that widowed and illiterate DM patients have comparatively longer survival times. Furthermore, among the DM patients who have unfortunately passed away, it has been identified that unspecified DM with ketoacidosis accounts for 10.03% of the deaths as a direct cause of death. In contrast, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) with kidney complications contributes to 10.23% of the deaths as the fundamental cause of death. The city is faced with a significant challenge of diabetes, which is influenced by factors such as gender, age, cultural background, and marital status. Unspecified diabetes mellitus (DM) with ketoacidosis (10.03%) and T2DM with renal complications (0.23%) are identified as the primary direct and underlying causes of death among diabetic patients, respectively. This study serves as a valuable reference for other regions in terms of diabetes prevention, control, and the management of chronic diseases.

Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5

Abstract. Under the Paris Agreement, signatory nations aim to keep global warming well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and preferably below 1.5 °C. This implicitly requires achieving net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas emissions to ensure long-term global temperature stabilisation or reduction. Despite this requirement, there have been few analyses of stabilised climates, and there is a lack of model experiments to address our need for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. Here, we describe a new set of experiments using the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Earth system model (ACCESS-ESM-1.5) that enables the analysis of climate evolution under net-zero emissions, and we present initial results. Seven 1000-year-long simulations were run with global temperatures stabilising at levels in line with the Paris Agreement and at a range of higher global warming levels (GWLs). We provide an overview of the experimental design and use these simulations to demonstrate the consequences of delayed attainment of global net-zero carbon dioxide emissions. We show that there are substantial differences between transient and stabilising climate states and differences in stabilisation between GWLs. As the climate stabilises under net-zero emissions, we identify significant and robust changes in temperature and precipitation patterns including continued Southern Ocean warming and changes in regional precipitation trends. Changes under net-zero emissions differ greatly between regions, including contrasting trajectories of sea ice extent between the Arctic and Antarctic. We also examine the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and find evidence of reduced amplitude and frequency of ENSO events under climate stabilisation relative to projections under transient warming. An analysis at specific GWLs shows that significant regional changes continue for centuries after emission cessation and that these changes are stronger at higher GWLs. Our findings suggest substantial long-term climate changes are possible even under net-zero emission pathways. These simulations are available for use in the community and will hopefully motivate further experiments and analyses based on other Earth system models.

SWOT Analysis in Determining Consumer Preferences For Designing Traditional Nias Clothing

The purpose of this research is to find out consumer preferences in designing traditional Nias clothing, find out the design after conducting a SWOT analysis, and find out the obstacles that exist in the process of making traditional Nias clothes. This research uses a qualitative research approach. The sample in this study were 6 people consisting of business owners, traditional leaders, employees, and consumers. Data collection techniques, namely interviews and observations. The results of this study are steps in determining consumer preferences in designing traditional Nias clothing at UD. Vivi is the determination of the size motif and type of material, color selection based on market demand, the design produced by UD. Vivi in designing Nias traditional clothing is seen in terms of shape, size, quality, and product durability, the findings of threats to UD. Vivi is that it can come from various factors, namely competition, changes in market trends, changes in consumer preferences, especially among the younger generation who may prefer clothes with modern styles rather than traditional ones, which can reduce demand for traditional Nias clothing, the influence of foreign cultures: Influence from outside culture, and the tools used are still traditional.

Climate change and epidemiological trends of malaria and Lassa fever transmission in Nigeria (2015-2022): A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Climate change exacerbates infectious disease transmission in Nigeria, a country with a high burden of infectious diseases. Objective: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis examining the relationship between climate variability and infectious disease transmission in Nigeria. Methods: We systematically searched major databases, identifying 25 studies, with 11 studies meeting the inclusion criteria for meta-analysis using R version 4.4.1. Results: The meta-analysis revealed significant associations between temperature increases and malaria (pooled effect estimate = 1.034, 95% CI: 1.016-1.052) and Lassa fever (pooled effect estimate = 1.029, 95% CI: 1.015-1.043) transmission. Egger's funnel plot showed no significant publication bias, and sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the findings. Conclusion: This study provides evidence for the association between climate variability and infectious disease transmission in Nigeria. This underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions to protect vulnerable populations, including children under 5, pregnant women, the elderly, people with comorbidity, and low-income communities.

Transformation of the tobacco product market in Japan, 2011–2023

ObjectiveThis study updates a previous paper that examined trends in the sale of cigarettes and heated tobacco products (HTPs) in Japan between 2011 and part way through 2019. The current study includes complete unit sales data through 2023.MethodsData on cigarette and HTP sales were obtained from public sources available from the websites and stockholder reports for the Tobacco Institute of Japan, Philip Morris International and Japan Tobacco. We used joinpoint regression using the parametric method to test for trends in both per capita and total sales for the three outcome variables assessed between 2011 and 2023: (1) cigarette sales, (2) HTP sales and (3) combined cigarette and HTP sales. Joinpoint regression identifies changes in trends and estimates the annual per cent change (APC) for each trend segment.ResultsBetween 2011 and 2023, per capita and total cigarette sales declined by 52.6% and 52.7%, respectively. From 2011 to 2015, per capita cigarette sales in Japan decreased −1.5% APC; from 2015 to 2018, the decline accelerated to −10.5% APC and continued to fall −7.3% APC between 2018 and 2023. Between 2016 and 2018, per capita HTP sales increased by 149.0% APC, and since 2018, they have increased by 8.1% APC.ConclusionWhile many factors may account for the decreased sale of cigarettes in Japan over the past 12 years, the increased sale of HTPs appears to be a factor.

Exploring the Role of Short Video Platforms in Guiding Public Opinion in the New Media Era

With the rapid development of short video platforms, they are gradually changing the way information is disseminated and public opinion is guided. To explore the role of short videos in guiding public opinion, this study mainly analyzes data from third-party data platforms and short video media accounts to reveal the mechanism of short videos on the evolution of public opinion. A detailed statistical analysis of the content of relevant videos on the short video platform was conducted, including the number of video views, the number of comments, and their changing trends; An in-depth analysis was conducted on the videos and comments released by self-media and mainstream media. Through content analysis, the study evaluated the communication characteristics of these media in guiding public opinion, including the selective dissemination of information, emotional tendencies, and the shaping of public cognition. The research results show that short video platforms play a significant role in guiding public opinion, and their dissemination characteristics and content selection have a profound impact on the formation and development of public opinion. In particular, self-media and mainstream media play a key role in guiding public opinion. They play a leading role in shaping public opinion through different communication strategies and content presentation.

Global burden of drug use disorders by region and country, 1990–2021

BackgroundThis study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database to systematically assess the magnitude of drug use disorders (DUD) burden between 1990 and 2021.MethodsThis study used GBD data to analyze the trends in ASIR, DALYs and other DUD indicators from 1990 to 2021, and compared them among different regions and countries. The Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) and its 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were calculated to assess the temporal and geographical disparities. ASIR and DALYs were used to evaluate the burden of DUDs, and socio-demographic index (SDI) was used to measure the socio-economic development level of each country.ResultsThe global ASIR of DUDs showed a slight downward trend (EAPC = −0.26). The age-standardized DALY rate (per 100,000) significantly declined from 1990 to 2021 (EAPC = −1.44). Among the regions, the high SDI region exhibited the most substantial increase in ASIR (EAPC = 0.65). On a regional level, the high-income North America region had the highest EAPC for both age-standardized DALYs and ASIR (EAPC = 4.82, 1.02, respectively). Nationally, the United States of America reported the largest increase in age-standardized DALY rates and EAPC for ASIR (EAPC of 4.88, 1.05, respectively), while South Africa had the most significant decrease in EAPC (EAPC of −3.62, −1.52, respectively). In 2021, the highest ASIR was observed in high-income North America at 520.07; Central Asia had the highest age-standardized DALY rate. Globally, age-standardized DALYs and ASIR for DUDs were generally higher in men than in women, and the burden of DUDs decreased with age.ConclusionThe global burden of DUDs has shown complex and changing trends over the last decades, with large differences in burden between regions and countries. This highlights the need for targeted public health policies and interventions in High income North America region and Eastern Europe.

Properties of wood shear walls connected by wood nails

The performance of a wood wall connected by wood nails and twist nails was tested. It was found that during the monotonic load testing, the wood nails connected to the shear panel and stud at the column bottom broke when the deformation reached 12.1 mm. However, the primary failure mode was that the twist nails bent and the head cap became dented in the shear panel. For reciprocating loads, it was found that the wood nails experienced local fracture on the tensile side. The skeleton curve of the wood wall connected by twist nails showed a good trend of bearing capacity changes in both tension and compression sides. Based on the properties of the standard wood wall, a new T-shaped fastener was designed for the midply wood wall. The lateral performance of the reinforced standard wood shear wall and midply wood shear wall were tested. By adding T-shaped pull-up fasteners, sandwich wall structure and double row nails, the strength, stiffness, and ductility of the midply wood wall were substantially better than those of standard walls connected with twist nails using conventional pull-up fasteners.

Wastewater Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Slovenia: Key Public Health Tool in Endemic Time of COVID-19

With the reclassification of COVID-19 as an endemic disease and the relaxation of measures, Slovenia needed a complementary system for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 infections. This article provides an overview of the epidemiological situation of SARS-CoV-2 in Slovenia using a wastewater surveillance system, demonstrating its usefulness as a complementary tool in epidemiological surveillance. This study found that estimated SARS-CoV-2 infections in Slovenia peaked in September 2022 and showed a declining trend with subsequent lower peaks in March–April and December 2023, mirroring the trends observed from clinical data. Based on both surveillance systems, the most prevalent variant in 2022 was BA.5. By 2023, BQ.1 and other Omicron variants increased in prevalence. By the end of 2023, XBB sublineages and the BA.2.86 variant had become predominant, demonstrating consistent dynamic shifts in variant distribution across both monitoring methods. This study found that wastewater surveillance at wastewater treatment plants in Slovenia effectively tracked SARS-CoV-2 infection trends, showing a moderate to strong correlation with clinical data and providing early indications of changes in infection trends and variant emergence. Despite limitations during periods of low virus concentration, the system proved significant in providing early warnings of infection trends and variant emergence, thus enhancing public health response capabilities.

Ten-Year Antimicrobial Resistance Trend in Uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) Isolated from Dogs and Cats Admitted to a Veterinary Teaching Hospital in Italy

Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are a common occurrence in cats and dogs. Surveillance of antibiotic resistance trends helps in the prudent selection of suitable antimicrobial agents. However, there are limited available data on this matter in Italy. This retrospective study aimed to investigate the trends of antimicrobial resistance in uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) isolated from cats and dogs over ten years (January 2014 to October 2023). Three hundred thirty-nine UPEC strains were isolated from urine samples submitted to the Veterinary Teaching Hospital of Torino (Italy). Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was conducted for up to 11 classes of antibacterials, categorized into four categories (A, B, C, and D) following the European Medicine Agency guidelines for prudent antimicrobial use in animals. The results reveal a higher resistance towards compounds in categories C and D, while fewer isolates were resistant to antibacterials in categories B and A. Resistance has steadily increased from 2014 to 2019. Starting from 2020, a decline in resistance is evident in all four categories. The reduction is more pronounced for the categories subject to the greatest restrictions under European and national legislation. The change in resistance trend is in line with findings from other European countries and food-production animals in Italy.

Exploration on the Change and Development Trend of Corporate Culture Management in the New Era

The management reform of modern companies shares both common and unique characteristics. Changes in corporate culture management are closely tied to broader trends, with the unique changes characterized by diversification. Corporate culture management reforms in Japan, the United States, Europe, China, and other countries are influenced by their unique cultural heritage and changes. The reform of corporate culture management in various countries and regions in the world today has the following common characteristics: First, they have moved beyond emotional management and entered a stage of rational system management, gradually improving over time. Second, corporate culture management has been elevated to the highest level of corporate management, making it central to business activities. From the perspective that can be seen at present, in the global scope, corporate culture management in various countries and regions shows three development trends: firstly, the increasingly strong modern market concept; The second is to introduce values assessment and deeply embed it into corporate culture; And third, the introduction of artificial intelligence into modern corporate culture management.

A multi-index comprehensive evaluation method for assessing the water use balance between economic society and ecology considering efficiency-development-health-harmony.

Quantitative assessment of the water use balance between economic society and ecology (EEWB) is the basis for coordinating the competitive relationship of water use between human activity and ecological requirements and. It is of great significance for optimizing the water resources carrying capacity and achieving a healthy regional water balance. Based on the concept of harmonious balance, this paper puts forward the definition and connotation of EEWB regarding the competition in water use between economic society and ecology. And, a novel framework for assessing the EEWB is proposed. It has four aspects relating to water resources, economic society, ecology, and human-water relationship. Linked to these aspects the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique, Water Ecological Footprint (WEF) model, InVEST model and indicators system of human-water relationship are used to establish a water resources efficiency index (IEEWB-W), economic society high-quality development index (IEEWB-ES), ecology health index (IEEWB-E), harmony index of human-water relationship (IEEWB-H). The four indices were then integrated into the water use balance between economic society and ecology index (IEEWB) with Euclidean distance, thus forming the EEWB quantification method system. Finally, the temporal and spatial characteristics of EEWB during 2010-2022 was diagnosed in Henan Province and cities of China. Results reveal that: (1) The water resources utilization efficiency exhibit a changing trend of initial decrease followed by subsequent increase; (2) Southern cities in Henan Province have a higher economic society development level compared to northern cities; (3) IEEWB-E in Henan Province is below 0.60, indicating that the regional ecology health remains consistently vulnerable; (4) IEEWB-H in Henan Province shows an increasing trend, indicating that a gradual improvement and overall upward development in the human-water relationship; (5) IEEWB multi-year average was within [0.53, 0.65] in Henan Province, indicating a state of Proximity imbalance. The low level of ecological health is the primary influencing factor. These findings will contribute to a better understanding of the water use balance between economic society and ecology and provide scientific reference for achieving a healthy regional water balance.

Surplus or deficit? Quantification of carbon sources and sinks and analysis of driving mechanisms of typical oasis urban agglomeration ecosystems

The relationship between carbon sources and sinks, along with their balance, is a crucial indicator for assessing ecosystem health. Ecosystem protection mitigates climate change and promotes the carbon cycle balance. Consequently, to effectively assess the status of carbon sources and sinks in an oasis ecosystem, this study utilized remote sensing and statistical data to estimate the natural carbon sources and sinks, energy carbon emissions(ECE), and carbon surpluses or deficits in the urban agglomeration of the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains(UANSTM) for a period 2000–2022 from a perspective of the natural-social-economic system. The driving mechanisms were analyzed using the optimal geodetector model (OPGD) and generalized divisia index method (GDIM). The results show(1) throughout the study period, natural carbon sources and sinks in the UANSTM exhibited a distribution pattern that diminished from the Tianshan Mountains axis northward and southward, accompanied by a fluctuating increase over time. ECE predominantly occurred in urban built-up areas and adjacent cultivated lands, totaling an increase of 88.48 × 104 TgC. (2) The change trend showed an overall predominance of carbon sources, with the rate of increase of carbon sources being greater than that of carbon sinks. Grassland-cultivated land and construction land interaction area exhibited significant changes in carbon sources and sinks. (3) During the study period, the UANSTM experienced a consistent carbon deficit, averaging −68.11 TgC annually. Spatially, this deficit evolved from discrete points to linear and then to areal patterns. (4) Precipitation and elevation were the primary determinants of natural carbon sources and sinks. Whereas GDP with a contribution of 50.4%,was the predominant driver of ECE across each prefecture-level city. Development of policies that synergize regional natural and socioeconomic systems is an important means of achieving a carbon balance. The results of this study provide a reference for adding a research paradigm on carbon sources and sinks in oasis urban agglomerations and for low-carbon development.