Regime Change Research Articles

The territorial logic of an export-led growth strategy: Israel’s regime change after the Second Intifada

In recent decades, neo-mercantilism has become ubiquitous among small and large states. The conventional explanation for the appeal of an export-led growth regime has focused on the material interests of domestic growth coalitions. This article offers an alternative explanation for transition to export-led growth strategies, based on the geopolitical and territorial interests of states. It posits that states embrace a mercantilist export-led growth model because it aligns with their geopolitical objectives. The article demonstrates the geopolitical hypothesis based on the transition of Israel from a consumption-led to an export-led growth strategy after the end of the peace process and the outbreak of the Second Intifada in 2000.

Demand and growth regimes of the BRICs countries – the national income and financial accounting decomposition approach and an autonomous demand-led growth perspective

We contribute to the recent debate in post-Keynesian economics (PKE), comparative political economy (CPE) and international political economy (IPE) on growth regimes. The paper presents an analysis of changes in demand and growth regimes in the BRICs countries, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, after the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession of 2007–2009. It discusses and applies two approaches: a first one based on national income and financial accounting decomposition and a second one based on the Sraffian Supermultiplier (SSM) growth model, distinguishing the dynamics of autonomous expenditure growth from those of the induced components of aggregate demand. It is argued that the SSM approach provides the bridge between the traditional approach based on national income and financial accounting decomposition and the analysis of growth drivers, both in PKE as well as in CPE and IPE. This is illustrated by pointing out some changes in the underlying political economy and economic policy growth drivers in each of the countries.

A börtönlelkészi szolgálat alapjogi vetülete – a jogdogmatikán innen és túl

Aim: This study aims to examine the ministry of prison chaplains in the context of fundamental rights, in particular freedom of thought, conscience and religion.Methodology: The analysis uses the legal doctrinal approach of fundamental rights as its primary method of research. This is complemented by a public law context going back to the regime change and an international perspective, which are common tools of comparative method of legal scholarship and provide reference points in the analysis.Findings: Prison chaplaincy is linked to both the individual and collective aspects of religious freedom, and there is both a rights and obligations side to this fundamental rights relationship. The paper will discuss the fundamental rights of prison chaplaincy, including the right of prisoners to individual and collective religious practice, as a subset of freedom of conscience and religion in the period since the change of regime. Finally, the paper briefly reflects on the case law of the European Court of Human Rights on the exercise of religion by prisoners.Value: The study contributes to the complex issue of religion and reintegration through an analysis of constitutional law.

Inflation in France Since the 1960s: A Post-Keynesian Interpretation Using the Conflict-Inflation Model

This paper analyses inflation in France since the early 1960s based on a standard conflicting-claims approach. Applying an empirical version of the conflict-inflation framework, we adduce evidence suggesting the theory is sound and can explain variations in inflation over the long run. We provide a method for estimating indicators of workers’ and firms’ bargaining power as well as their respective distributional aspirations. Based on the literature we identify four periods: the Fordist regime, the Neoliberal regime, and two transitional periods. Our results cast light on institutional regime changes. It is shown that the evolution from the Great Inflation to the Great Moderation was the consequence of a collapse in the bargaining power of workers (and of firms to a lesser extent); but the narrowing of the aspirations’ gap because of workers’ renouncement was also significant. This analysis allows us to highlight differences between the stagflation observed during the 1970s and the inflationary surge in the post-pandemic period (2021–2023).

The moderate rebel industry: Spaces of Western public–private civil society and propaganda warfare in the Syrian civil war

This article documents a covert propaganda and civil society operation perpetrated by a consortium of Western governments, private contractors, and NGOs to justify and facilitate regime change in Syria by whitewashing and assisting rebel groups. Using leaked documents from key government contractors, corroborated with journalistic, academic, NGO, and government research already released, the author outlines their rebel media infrastructure to create news stories and feed them to Syrian, regional, and international outlets. This propaganda synergized with administrative programs that built social services in rebel-held territories, constructing media and civil society façades of legitimacy and liberalism for rebel militias. The consortium created the White Helmets, who recorded themselves providing services while documenting supposed war crimes, to serve as a bridge between these propaganda and civil society missions. The author argues that the controlled spaces of full-spectrum intellectual warfare created by this consortium, coordinating state-supported media and civil society and obfuscating it behind private and non-profit entities, can help scholars understand the narrative battles surrounding the Syrian conflict and gain insight into the evolving role of media and information warfare in the 21st century.

Derivation of Key Attributes and Clusters of Korean Taekwondo Policies and Systems on Social Media: Comparative Big Data Analysis Based on Regime Change

This study analyzed the key attributes and clusters of policies and systems of Korean Taekwondo based on Park Geun-Hye and Moon Jae-in’s regime changes using big data, including 8,030 data points on social media over a period of 8 years. Frequency analysis, term frequency inverse document frequency analysis, and degree centrality analysis were performed using TEXTOM 4.5. In addition, a convergent and correlation analysis was performed using UCINET 6 to visualize related words and analyze clusters. Frequency, term frequency inverse document frequency, and degree centrality analyses revealed 30 high-order terms. A convergence of iterated correlations analysis of the derived words identified three common clusters: improvement, problem, and support. In addition, there were two distinct clusters in the Park Geun-hye government (research and sports policy), and three in the Moon Jae-in government (interview, thoughts, and athlete). The Korean government attempted to improve and address problems related to policies and systems for the development of Taekwondo. However, as Taekwondo policies and systems were implemented from different perspectives by each regime, systematic policies and systems could not be implemented.

US economic sanctions targeting Latin America: Recent changes, developments and compliance challenges

The United States — specifically through the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and the Department of State — has maintained economic sanctions against certain Latin American countries since the 1950s. Starting with broad-based sanctions against Cuba, where OFAC prohibited virtually all transactions, the Department of the Treasury has instituted more-targeted sanctions regimes against Venezuela and Nicaragua, where non-government dealings are, for the most part, authorised. Together, the Departments of State and the Treasury also administer sanctions against various narcotics and terrorist organisations operating in Latin America. Most notable is the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act, which has targeted trafficking organisations, foreign officials and their money laundering empires. To that end, sanctions, while initially imposed to fight certain political regimes, have developed into sanctions targeting all kinds of wrongdoing such as sponsoring terrorism, aiding and abetting drug trafficking, corruption and the commission of human rights violations. US sanctions violations are assessed under a strict liability standard (ie, no knowledge of the violation is required to trigger liability) and impact not only those directly subject to the jurisdiction of the US but also may carry implications for non-US persons undertaking certain ‘significant transactions' with sanctioned persons and jurisdictions. Further, while sanctions apply to US persons, OFAC can institute penalties on non-US persons for causing a US person to violate their compliance obligations. In addition, OFAC (or the Department of State) may sanction persons (individuals or entities) by adding them to the Specially Designated and Blocked Nationals (SDN) List. US persons must block the property and interests in property of SDNs, and are prohibited from virtually all, direct and indirect, transactions involving an SDN. SDN restrictions also apply to ‘Shadow SDNs' which are entities owned 50 per cent or more, directly or indirectly, by one or more SDNs in the aggregate. A Shadow SDN receives the same treatment as SDNs, regardless of whether such entity is itself on the SDN List. The challenge with Shadow SDNs is that they can only be discovered through rigorous due diligence into beneficial ownership structures of sometimes opaque corporate entities. This is where the world of sanctions compliance and enforcement crosses with that of anti-money laundering. The evolving customer due diligence, ongoing customer monitoring, suspicious activity investigations and reporting, and know your customer (KYC) (and know your customer's customer [KYCC]) evidenced are reflected through the evolving Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Recommendations, the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering in South America (GAFISUD) and domestic regulations. As a result of the increasingly unpredictable political changes in Latin America, and the concurrent changes in sanctions regimes, financial institutions (FIs) should maintain a proper understanding of the current sanctions prohibitions, the trends and updates in the area, but equally important, they should also maintain a good understanding of the complex legal provisions authorising certain behaviours — including the general licences and exemptions — that may apply. FIs must balance mitigating the risks of sanctions violations, and the associated hefty penalties, with the risks of a cumbersome and overly restrictive compliance regimen. An appropriately risk-based compliance programme that achieves both of these objectives is very much an art and not a ‘one size fits all’ model.

The permanency of mass atrocities: The fallacy of ‘never again’

The terminology of ‘never again’ has been studied in Sociology, Cultural Studies and History, yet remains neglected in International Relations. This is despite its centrality in debates over humanitarian intervention, the Responsibility to Protect and mass atrocity prevention. To foster a conversation over the term’s use, this article uses an interdisciplinary approach to show how the meaning of ‘never again’ has changed over time. Building on this, we analyse five real-world problems: (1) the quantitative problem, (2) the nuclear problem, (3) the regime change problem, (4) the weak state problem and (5) the P5 problem. We find the blanket call of ‘never again’ oversimplifies the complexity of mass atrocity prevention and creates an unrealistic goal. Going forward, we call on those invoking the phrase to explain what they mean by it and why they are using it as part of a broader reassessment of the term’s use in International Relations.

Taxes in the Time of Revolution: An Experimental Test of the Rentier State during Algeria's Hirak

abstract: This article examines the rentier thesis that a government's control over oil resources should help it to resist pressures for democratization. The authors' online survey experiment, implemented during a nationwide mobilization for regime change in Algeria known as the Hirak, used interactive experimental treatments to provide information about the Algerian government's subsidies for fuel resources and low value-added taxes. Based on a sample of 9,721 Algerians, the authors find that when Algerians learn about their country's relatively high level of fuel subsidies and low level of taxes, their assessments of the government's performance improve. However, the treatment has null effects for outcomes involving demands for representation, such as intentions to join protest movements. An analysis of treatment heterogeneity in terms of wealth shows that the wealthy became much more supportive of the regime in response to the treatment while in some cases the poor became much less so. This treatment heterogeneity appears to be related to divergent views among the wealthy and the poor concerning the goals of the protest movement, with the wealthy favoring institutional reforms while the poor prioritized redistributive justice.

Hybrid methodology development for lubrication regimes identification based on measurements, simulation, and data clustering

The lubrication regimes of a laboratory scale journal bearing were analysed with wide band acoustic emission (AE) measurements. The analysis was supported by data-based clustering of AE data. Digital twin of the journal bearing was generated with Simpack multi-body simulation software to study opportunities for developing a hybrid methodology for more complex systems monitoring. The AE and data-based clustering approach can be effectively used to reveal fundamental lubrication modes, i.e., hydrodynamic (HL), mixed (ML) and boundary (BL) lubrication as a function of Hersey number, which can be evaluated in situ by utilizing digital twin. Besides AE the other parameters monitored were friction torque, bearing temperature, loading, sliding velocity and oil pressure. The materials used in the experiments were case-hardened 18CrNiMo7–6 steel and nitrided 42CrMo7 steel. The tests were lubricated with synthetic extreme-pressure gear oil (SGN 320) and the bearing temperature was kept constant during the tests. The bearing loading and sliding velocity during tests were varied in the wide range resulting in different lubrication situations. The acoustic emission signals power and frequency content was analysed, and essential features were extracted for data clustering. For lubrication regime change identification the parameters such as signal RMS and coefficient of variation (CV) proved to be important, while signal kurtosis showed to be the most sensitive in discovering anomalies. The high sensitivity requires data filtering to remove erroneous peaks and to reveal real trends more clearly. It is also interesting to notice the changes in AE frequency during changing to different lubrication regime. In literature different clustering and classification methods has been proposed and applied for journal bearing status identification. Here the selected unsupervised clustering method was the mean-shift clustering due to fact, that the lubrication regimes in the Stribeck curve form an inseparable continuum. The algorithm does not require specifying the number of clusters in advance, i.e., the clusters are determined by the algorithm with respect to the data. The results were compared to simulations with digital twin. i.e., by comparing simulated digital twin film thickness and measured AE kurtosis relative to measured Hersey number. It was concluded that digital twins can be utilized as virtual sensor for in situ detecting of lubrication regimes, if it is possible to calibrate the simulation with sensitive measurements, e.g., AE. It is obvious that simulations alone cannot predict suddenly appearing anomalies, such as impurities or surface fatigue failures.

Political and Public Discourse in the backdrop of 'Regime Change' in Pakistan (2022): A Thematic Analysis of the Facebook pages of PTI, PML-N and PPP

In today’s day and age, the social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter have converted a rather conventionally one way ‘political communication’ process into an effective and influential two-way communication process. This two-way communication process has an impact on the political communication phenomenon all around the world. Bearing in mind this aspect the researcher has attempted to explore how and to what extent the ‘public discourse’ matched or differed from the ‘political discourse’ regarding the political ‘regime change’ in Pakistan that took place in the first half of the April 2022. Employing the ‘Framing’ as theoretical basis the researcher has attempted to determine how the ‘regime change’ was framed in the political and public discourse. The researcher has employed thematic analysis as methodological tool in this study to identify, analyze and interpret the meanings within the political and public discourse in the backdrop of the ‘regime change’ appeared in the Facebook pages of the top three political parties in Pakistan i.e. Pakistan Tehreek-E-Insaaf (PTI), Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

Monitoring climate change in the marine Arctic

Changes in the temperature regime of the marine Arctic and the influencing factors are considered based on the current knowledge of the causes of climate change and the use of new data sources. In the Arctic, the warming is developing due to such factors as the increase in the transfer of heat and moisture from the low latitudes. This, in turn, drives the feedbacks in the Arctic climate system, increasing the flow of long-wave radiation to the surface due to rising atmospheric water vapor concentrations and slowing down the growth of the sea ice thickness in winter. The increase in the atmospheric heat transfer to the Arctic is associated with changes in atmospheric circulation, in particular, under the influence of ocean surface temperature anomalies, especially in the low latitudes since the bulk of the heat influx from the from solar radiation and anthropogenic forcing is accumulated here. Analyzing the causes of warming in the Arctic in the 1930s and 40s led researchers to the conclusion that the water influx from the North Atlantic is a factor to consider. Therefore, the influx of warm and salty water is also an important influence on the formation of the climate of the marine Arctic today, which should be taken into account when monitoring the temperature and ice regime of this area. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of climate variability in the marine Arctic and its causes, the article examines representative indicators of climate change in the temperature and ice regime of the marine Arctic and the factors influencing them in the present period.

Economic growth, current account dynamics, and growth regimes in the Baltic states

ABSTRACT This article considers the growth performance of the Baltic states from the mid-1990s to 2021. Economic growth was rapid before the global financial crisis but slowed markedly after the crisis. Panel data estimations using seemingly unrelated regressions suggest that the dynamics of the current account balance are important for short and medium-term growth in the Baltic states but that there is a break signifying a change of short-term growth regime around the time of the global financial crisis. Before the crisis, rapid growth was supported by domestic demand that was made possible by large current account deficits. After the crisis, economic growth was supported by external demand reflected in improvements in current account balances. The shift in the short-term economic growth regime after the global financial crisis has brought lower rates of economic growth but also reduced financial vulnerability.

ТРАДИЦИОННЫЕ ФОРМЫ ОБЩИННОГО САМОУПРАВЛЕНИЯ КЫРГЫЗОВ

The article describes the forms of the ancient communal self-government of the Kyrgyz people that existed in previous centuries. Some of these forms have survived to the present day, while others are being revived today, enriching the modern palette of local self-government in Kyrgyzstan. Such socially useful forms of national self-government and national self-government as ashar, kurultai, etc., which came from ancient times, are particularly highlighted. The article, among other things, describes some features of the ancient tribal division of the Kyrgyz, which contributed to the preservation of many forms of communal self-government. Examples from the scientific and historical literature are given, which clearly demonstrate the traditional community rules of mutual assistance and collective action to improve living conditions on the territory. Today, these forms of public self-government, along with some externally introduced European innovations, form the basis for the formation of elements of the so-called everyday democracy. This article summarizes examples from various sources in the form of a description and analysis of the traditions of the collective Kyrgyz community, as well as the fact that despite the change of political regimes, communal forms of cooperation successfully coexist with the modernized municipal government.

Комплексная оценка геоэкологических рисков при ведении открытых и подземных горных работ

Introduction. Geo-ecological risk is the probability of adverse events leading to a violation of the stability of the existing ecological system or the natural and technical geo-system “rock mass – technology – mining”, formed as a result of mining activities. The main elements of geo-ecological risk in mining are dangerous geological (landslides, rock collapses, suffusion-erosion processes, karst, etc.) and hydrogeological processes. The purpose of the research. Development of a method for integrated assessment and management of geo-ecological risks in open-pit and underground mining operations. Methodology. The paper calculates the geo-ecological risk in relation to each technological process. At the same time, the ranking of the possibility of a negative process in mining activities is determined on the basis of an expert approach, taking into account the specifics of mining and technological operations. Statistical data and expert assessments formed the basis for determining the quantitative values of geo-ecological risks in mining operations. Results and discussion. The obtained quantitative values of geo-ecological risks indicate that a management system is needed. The developed geo-ecological risk management system makes it possible to conduct a comprehensive assessment of them in the conditions of mining and mining and construction production and, based on forecast calculations, determine the distribution zones of the most dangerous processes in the “rock mass – technology – mining” system. Conclusion. Research has been conducted on the formation of a comprehensive assessment of geo-ecological risks, as well as their forecasting during open-pit and underground mining operations. It is determined that the geo-ecological risk in open-pit mining consists of the risk of alienation and degradation of soil, the risk of pollutants into the atmospheric air, the risk of pollution and depletion of the water basin, and in underground mining – from the risk of atmospheric pollution of the working area, the risk of changes in the groundwater regime and the risk of geo-mechanical transformations of the rock mass.

Petro-states, oil shocks, and regime change: Venezuela and Ecuador, 2013–2023

The literature on petrostates tends to blackbox the state. We argue, in contrast, that not all petro-states are configured equally. They thus respond to external crises differently. Despite sharing similar background conditions, the petro-state of Venezuela responded to the external oil shock of 2014–2015 by turning more authoritarian and predatory, whereas the petro-state of Ecuador tried to become more democratic and developmental. To explain this difference, we focus on three within-state institutional differences between these cases: the cohesion of hardliners, the reach of the coercive military and paramilitary apparatus, and the viability of the public and private sectors. In short, even petro-states operating under similar regimes (in this case, left-populist, semi-authoritarian) can exhibit different institutional make-ups, and these institutional differences help explain responses to similar external shocks.

The effect of regime change on entrepreneurship: A real options approach with evidence from US gubernatorial elections

Although political turnover is said to be a healthy component of the business environment, the literature is equivocal about the effects of regime change on early-stage entrepreneurial activity. I present incumbent displacement—the electoral defeat of an incumbent political party's candidate—as a source of regime change, and I analyze how this affects business formation through the lens of real options theory. I test my theory using US gubernatorial elections from 2004 to 2022, leveraging a Regression Discontinuity design to compare changes in business formation trends following elections where a challenger party candidate wins or loses by a close margin. I find that regime change reduces venture creation activity for growth-oriented ventures specifically. I also find evidence of a partial rebound in subsequent months—suggestive that some entrepreneurs delay entry while others permanently abandon their ventures.

Variable plate kinematics promotes changes in back-arc deformation regime along the north-eastern Eurasia plate boundary

The stretching of the lithosphere leading to back-arc basins formation generally develops behind arc-trench systems and is considered the consequence of slab retreat relative to the upper plate. Here, we examine the deformation regime evolution within the overriding plate due to subduction processes, using thermo-mechanical numerical simulations. We explore the north-eastern Eurasia plate boundary and the mechanisms of subducting Pacific plate since 57 Ma. During this time interval, several extensional basins formed along the Eurasia margin, such as the East China Sea, the Japan Sea, and the Kuril basin. Here, we increased the simulation complexity, with the inclusion of (i) the kinematic variability of the Pacific plate over the geological past with respect to a fixed Eurasia, incorporating time-dependent (i.e., temporally evolving) velocities computed from plate motion reconstructions; (ii) a Low-Velocity Zone within the asthenosphere, and (iii) a horizontal eastward mantle flow. Our results show a crucial role of the mantle flow for the development of lithospheric extension and back-arc basin opening, and a main kinematic control of the subduction trench position, which advances and retreats, into distance intervals in the order of ∼\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\sim$$\\end{document} 100 km, and providing stages of compression and extension in a back-arc basin.

Emergence of phenotypic plasticity through epigenetic mechanisms.

Plasticity is found in all domains of life and is particularly relevant when populations experience variable environmental conditions. Traditionally, evolutionary models of plasticity are non-mechanistic: they typically view reactions norms as the target of selection, without considering the underlying genetics explicitly. Consequently, there have been difficulties in understanding the emergence of plasticity, and in explaining its limits and costs. In this paper, we offer a novel mechanistic approximation for the emergence and evolution of plasticity. We simulate random "epigenetic mutations" in the genotype-phenotype mapping, of the kind enabled by DNA-methylations/demethylations. The frequency of epigenetic mutations at loci affecting the phenotype is sensitive to organism stress (trait-environment mismatch), but is also genetically determined and evolvable. Thus, the "random motion" of epigenetic markers enables developmental learning-like behaviors that can improve adaptation within the limits imposed by the genotypes. However, with random motion being "goal-less," this mechanism is also vulnerable to developmental noise leading to maladaptation. Our individual-based simulations show that epigenetic mutations can hide alleles that are temporarily unfavorable, thus enabling cryptic genetic variation. These alleles can be advantageous at later times, under regimes of environmental change, in spite of the accumulation of genetic loads. Simulations also demonstrate that plasticity is favored by natural selection in constant environments, but more under periodic environmental change. Plasticity also evolves under directional environmental change as long as the pace of change is not too fast and costs are low.

Revisiting investment and its determinants through threshold analysis

AbstractSince the time of classical economists, investment decisions hold centre stage in economic theory. In this article, we integrate classical economists' perspectives on the determinants of investment with the Keynesian theory of effective demand. For this purpose, we employ variables to capture the effects of profitability, the state of demand, and the financial and risk conditions using time series data from 17 major OECD economies spanning the 1960–2017 period. Two are the salient features of our article: The first is the use as profitability variables, the marginal efficiency of capital or the incremental rate of return, and the second is the use of regime changes and respective threshold values for these two key variables. The econometric results show that the profitability variables are decisive in shaping investment decisions and designating phase changes.