Regime Change Research Articles

Shifting fire regimes cause continent-wide transformation of threatened species habitat.

Human actions are causing widespread increases in fire size, frequency, and severity in diverse ecosystems globally. This alteration of fire regimes is considered a threat to numerous animal species, but empirical evidence of how fire regimes are shifting within both threatened species' ranges and protected areas is scarce, particularly at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a big data approach to quantify multidecadal changes in fire regimes in southern Australia from 1980 to 2021, spanning 415 reserves (21.5 million ha) and 129 threatened species' ranges including birds, mammals, reptiles, invertebrates, and frogs. Most reserves and threatened species' ranges within the region have experienced declines in unburnt vegetation (≥30 y without fire), increases in recently burnt vegetation (≤5 y since fire), and increases in fire frequency. The mean percentage of unburnt vegetation within reserves declined from 61 to 36% (1980 to 2021), whereas the mean percentage of recently burnt vegetation increased from 20 to 35%, and mean fire frequency increased by 32%, with the latter two trends primarily driven by the record-breaking 2019 to 2020 fire season. The strongest changes occurred for high-elevation threatened species, and reserves of high elevation, high productivity, and strong rainfall decline, particularly in the southeast of the continent. Our results provide evidence for the widely held but poorly tested assumption that threatened species are experiencing widespread declines in unburnt habitat and increases in fire frequency. This underscores the imperative for developing management strategies that conserve fire-threatened species in an increasingly fiery future.

Exercise instruction during haemodialysis treatment after changes to the insurance regime: a nationwide questionnaire survey in Japan

In April 2022, an additional medical fee for exercise instruction during haemodialysis treatment was approved for insurance claims in Japan. We conducted a questionnaire survey to investigate the current situation regarding exercise therapy during haemodialysis treatment after this change. Questionnaires were mailed to 4257 haemodialysis facilities, almost all the haemodialysis facilities in Japan, on January 31, 2023. In total, 1657 facilities responded, of which 550 (33%) provided exercise instruction during haemodialysis treatment, and 65% of these claimed the new fee. Of the 550 facilities that had claimed the fee at the time of survey, 245 (55%) started exercise instruction in April 2022 or later. Exercise instruction focused on resistance training (81%) and aerobic exercise (62%) for 20–30 min (66%) three times a week (80%). The instructors included physicians in 45% of facilities, nurses in 74%, and physical therapists in 36%. Efficacy was evaluated in 76% of the facilities providing instruction, mainly by assessing change in muscle strength (49%). Overall, 39% of facilities had experienced some adverse events, but none were life-threatening. In conclusion, after the change in the insurance regime, exercise instruction during haemodialysis treatment has become more popular, and more patients on haemodialysis are undergoing exercise therapy.

BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE TIMANIAN AND URALIAN TECTONIC CYCLES: RESULTS OF DATING OF DETRITAL ZIRCONS FROM BASAL HORIZONS OF THE LOWER PALEOZOIC SYNRIFT COMPLEX OF THE POLAR URALS, AND IGNEOUS ROCK AGE DATA REPORT

The Upper Cambrian-Lower Ordovician terrigenous strata, unconformably overlying the Upper Riphean-Vendian rocks of the Timanide orogen in the north of the Urals, and contemporaneous bimodal volcanics and intrusive rocks are considered complexes marking the beginning of rifting which led to the opening of the Paleo-Ural Ocean later on. The article presents the results of U-Pb (LA-ICP-MS) dating of detrital zircons from sandstones lying at the base of the section of the rift complex in the Malaya Usa River basin in the Polar Urals. It was found that the clastic sequence (identified as the Khoydyshor formation) began to accumulate no earlier than the Cambrian–Ordovician transition. Zircon ages fall within the continuous Vendian to Early Ordovician (575–478 Ma) interval with peak at 512 Ma. This age range overlaps with the age of rhyolites interlayered conformably with sandstones and rhyolite porphyry dikes intruding the Khoydyshor formation, thus indicating a possible admixture of products of synsedimentary volcanism. A narrow zircon age pattern allows us to conclude that the main sources of detrital zircons in sandstones were the Early-Middle Cambrian igneous rocks formed at the stage of pre-rift uplift, and, to a lesser extent, the Late Cambrian-Early Ordovician riftogenic magmatic complexes, marking the beginning of the Uralian tectonic cycle, as well as the Late Vendian igneous rocks of the underlying Timanide orogen. Judging by the Th/U ratio, most of the detrital zircons within the sandstones were derived from the Early Paleozoic silicic volcanic and hypabyssal rocks and the Vendian granitoids and diorites. The almost complete absence of older grains, which are typical of coeval sandstones of the northern part of the Urals, may indicate the accumulation of the considered sandstones in a local trough with local clastic material sources. Probability density estimation of U-Pb ages for zircon from igneous and metamorphic rocks of the Polar Urals indicates that there were no gaps in the Late Riphean to Early Ordovician endogenous activity in this region. The main peaks occur at 552, 521 and 500 Ma, and an additional peak – at 665 Ma. The results of dating of detrital zircons from sandstones of the Khoydyshor formation together with the database of U-Pb isotope ages of igneous and metamorphic rocks of the Polar Urals (119 items), compiled by the authors, indicate that the change in geodynamic regime from collisional orogenesis in the Late Vendian to the Early-Middle Cambrian pre-rift uplift and following Late Cambrian rifting was not accompanied by a longterm discontinuity in magmatic activity.

Влияние региональных игроков на политический статус афганского движения «Талибан»

This article examines the role of the countries of the Arab region and Asia in shaping the political status of the Taliban movement (prohibited in the Russian Federation) after its return to power in Afghanistan in 2021. The reaction of regional actors to regime change in the country is described. A comparative analysis of the relationship of these states with the first (1996–2001) and second (2021 – present) Tali-ban regimes is presented. The article highlights Afghanistan's interaction with other countries in the economic, financial and humanitarian fields, as well as in the field of infrastructure projects. Common interests that contribute to intensifying partnerships between Afghanistan and regional powers are as-sessed. At the same time, risks associated with the terrorist activities of militants stationed in the coun-try have been identified. Measures of supporting and counteracting the domestic and foreign policies of the Taliban movement by other countries are analyzed.

Analysis of the influence of external factors on the deformation of high-rise buildings in the process of their construction and operation

During the construction and operation of high-rise buildings, their vertical axis changes its position in space. The greater the height of the structure, the greater the amplitude of oscillations. This causes problems of geodetic construction support and the need to monitor deformations during the operation of high-rise structures. In real conditions, part of the structures will be in the shade and their temperature will be lower than the structures that will be under the influence of solar radiation, the temperature of which will be much higher. Thus, the building will deform as a result of uneven thermal expansion, that is, it will bend. From DBN B.1.3-2:2010 "Geodesic works in construction". Also, during the geodetic provision of the construction and operation of high-rise buildings, changes in the temperature regime of building structures should be taken into account in connection with significant absolute values of changes in the geometric dimensions of the building as a result of thermal expansion, which significantly exceed the accuracy regulated by the regulatory document. The article examines and analyzes the influence of external forces on changes in the geometry of high-rise structures and focuses attention on solving the scientific problem of geodetic support for the construction and operation of modern high-rise structures under dynamic loads.

Winter soil temperature varies with canopy cover in Siberian larch forests

In the Arctic, winter soil temperatures exert strong control over mean annual soil temperature and winter CO2 emissions. In tundra ecosystems there is evidence that plant canopy influences on snow accumulation alter winter soil temperatures. By comparison, there has been relatively little research examining the impacts of heterogeneity in boreal forest cover on soil temperatures. Using seven years of data from six sites in northeastern Siberia that vary in stem density we show that snow-depth and forest canopy cover exert equally strong control on cumulative soil freezing degrees days (FDDsoil). Together snow depth and canopy cover explain approximately 75% of the variance in linear models of FDDsoil and freezing n-factors (n f; calculated as the quotient of FDDsoil and FDDair), across sites and years. Including variables related to air temperature, or antecedent soil temperatures does not substantially improve models. The observed increase in FDDsoil with canopy cover suggests that canopy interception of snow or thermal conduction through trees may be important for winter soil temperature dynamics in forested ecosystems underlain by continuous permafrost. Our results imply that changes in Siberian larch forest cover that arise from climate warming or fire regime changes may have important impacts on winter soil temperature dynamics.

Influence of seasonal hydrological regimes on benthic macroinvertebrates in two the Brazilian biodiversity hotspots

Global warming has changed climate patterns worldwide causing an increase of extreme weather conditions that have altered annual seasonal hydrological regimes. These extreme climate-driven shifts modify habitat availability and can influence freshwater communities in disruptive ways. Our study investigates how changes in annual seasonal hydrological regimes affect the community structure and the Functional Feeding Groups (FFG) of benthic macroinvertebrates in two Brazilian biodiversity hotspots, the Brazilian Tropical Savannas (a.k.a., Cerrado) and Atlantic Forest biomes. We investigate whether annual variation in precipitation between biomes influence composition, richness, and abundance of benthic macroinvertebrates and their proportions of FFG. We demonstrate that differences in annual precipitation rates affect the composition and abundance, but not richness of benthic macroinvertebrates. Changes in community structure are related to changes in annual precipitation, which modify stream variables. Our findings suggest that annual seasonal changes in hydrological precipitation modify benthic macroinvertebrate communities, especially in Cerrado, where dry seasons are more pronounced. Therefore, annual changes in precipitation rates may disrupt the benthic macroinvertebrate communities in tropical savannas, potentially leading to biodiversity loss.

Modeling the impacts of oil palm plantations on water quantity and quality in the Kais River Watershed of Indonesia

Oil palm plantations can impact hydrological processes in many tropical watersheds. The rapid conversion of tropical rainforests for commercial operations in recent decades has been associated with water scarcity, flooding, and polluted rivers. However, this widespread and emerging issue is less studied and underreported due to limited data availability, modeling complexity, and the remote nature of these landscapes. Ecohydrologic modeling enables us to investigate changes in watershed conditions caused by large-scale land cover changes from plantations. This study examines the impact of oil plantations on water quantity and quality using the SWAT+ model in the Kais River Watershed, West Papua, Indonesia. The objective is to assess the hydrological changes concerning land cover conversion to oil palm plantations. Results show that establishing oil palm plantations increased surface runoff by 21 %, and sediment yields rose by 16.9 % compared to the baseline. There was also a significant increase of 78 % in mean annual total nitrogen and 144 % in total phosphorous after the plantations' establishment. The results show that forest conversion to oil palm plantations in the Kais River watershed is a primary driver of change in hydrological regimes, resulting in the deterioration of water quality. There is a need for conservation strategies to mitigate the impacts of significant landscape changes in watershed ecosystems.

Leader-contingent sanctions as a cause of violent political conflict

Abstract Economic sanctions are a policy tool that great powers frequently use to interfere with domestic politics of another state. Regime change has been a primary goal of economic sanctions over the past decades. This article studies the relationship between leader-contingent sanctions—sanctions that are designed to impede the flow of revenue to a specific leader—and violent political conflict in target countries. I build a theoretical model to illuminate two mechanisms by which leader-contingent sanctions destabilize a regime—the Depletion Mechanism and the Instigation Mechanism. The Depletion Mechanism works when sanctions mechanically deplete the government's resources so that it becomes unable to buy off domestic opposition even by making the largest possible offer. The Instigation Mechanism implies that as sanctions decrease the benefit of negotiated settlement relative to war, the government may strategically choose to repress rather than buy off the opposition even when it is able to do so. Leader-contingent sanctions lead to bargaining failure by rewarding the opposition for revolt while reducing the government's ability and willingness to appease the opposition.

Advocacy Coalitions, Policy Entrepreneurs, and Windows of Opportunity: Tobacco Control in South Africa, 1948-2018.

This article examines the political history of tobacco control policy in South Africa from 1948 to 2018 by drawing on available historical documents, media reports, published books and articles, the grey literature, and face-to-face interviews with key policy actors. Tracing the historical evolution of tobacco control policies in South Africa reveals how embedded opposition from vested interest groups at every stage of the policy process complicates responses to the tobacco issue. This case study demonstrates how, despite such embedded difficulties, a confluence of regime change, evidence-based messaging, political will, policy entrepreneurs, and advocacy coalitions have led to the gradual transformation of tobacco control policy in South Africa over time. Understanding the historical evolution of tobacco control policy in South Africa opens up space for an in-depth inquiry that allows researchers to trace the policy-making process over the last seven decades, and to understand how those processes have facilitated a shift in the orientation of policy makers over time.

Bio-, Lithostratigraphic and Geochemical Markers of Global Events in the Upper Devonian of the South of Western Siberia and their Value for Inter-regional Correlations

Abstract —Upper Devonian carbonate reef complexes have been studied on the territory of the Kolyvan-Tom’ Folded Area in sections in the right bank of Tom’ River. Facies analysis of the exposed part of the reef complex indicates the predominance of fore-reef and continental margin depositional environments of a tectonically active margin. The identified conodont associations are represented by cosmopolitan representatives of the genera Ancyrodella, Ancyrolepis, Icriodus, Mehlina, Palmatolepis, Polygnathus and “Polylophodonta” suggesting a correlation with the punctata–jamieae, rhenana–linguiformis, triangularis and Lower crepida conodont zones. The largest conodont diversity occurs at the triangularis/crepida boundary. Biofacies analysis of ostracod distribution has led to identification of characteristic associations and their restriction to certain parts of the palaeobasin. Substage boundaries yielded ostracods with both smooth and ornamented shells. In the lower part of the substages, smooth forms predominate, whereas the middle and upper parts of the substages are characterised by forms with tuberculate and reticulated surface. Hollinella valentinae Beds were traced in the Upper Frasnian Solomino Formation, and Acratia granuliformis Beds were traced in the Lower Famennian Kosoy Utyos and lower Mitikha members. Isotope geochemistry of the Upper Devonian sections of the south of Western Siberia reveals Frasnian global events – the Middlesex/punctata and the Upper Kellwasser, their stratigraphic position confirmed by palaeontological data, as well as by the globally expressed negative carbon isotope anomaly. These boundaries are marked by changes in depositional regime reflecting sea-level eustatic fluctuations, which are complemented with faunal changes.

Cavitation suppression and transformation of turbulence structure in the cross flow around a circular cylinder: Surface morphology and wettability effects

Passive methods of flow and cavitation control appear to offer some of the best prospects in the field of hydraulic engineering and marine applications. In this article, we aimed at an experimental examination of the effect of wall roughness/wettability on the occurrence of cavitation and turbulence structure in the cross flow around and in the wake of a circular cylinder in two characteristic regimes. For this, we used three test bodies with different surface morphologies: smooth (reference), micro-scale irregularities (rough) and regular large-scale (of the order of a millimeter) texture (finned). Using high-speed imaging to observe vapor cavities, we revealed that cavitation is noticeably suppressed by both types of roughness. Applying the method of vapor phase detection (Pervunin et al., 2021), this finding was then quantitatively confirmed through an in-depth analysis of an ensemble of instantaneous velocity fields measured by PIV, indicating that modification of wall morphology is an effective method of cavitation control. The procedure of statistical vector filtration (Heinz et al., 2004) allowed us to remove outliers from the velocity fields and, thus, calculate various turbulence characteristics, including higher-order moments (i.e., the coefficients of skewness and excess). Wall irregularities were found to significantly affect the turbulence structure of the wake flow, but the higher-order moments downstream of the modified-surface cylinders turned out to be unexpectedly insensitive to a change in the flow regime, as opposed to the smooth one. Regardless of the type of surface morphology, the influence of roughness on the mechanism of formation of large-scale vortices and their characteristics was weakened. However, it caused overall disorganization of liquid motion in the cylinder wake, thus making local flow conditions highly unsteady. In addition, this process became more chaotic with an increase in the scale of irregularities.

The Development Path of the Hungarian Public Administration from the Regime Change to the New Era of Crises

The Hungarian public administration development path can be displayed in four stages: “democratisation” from 1990 until 1998, the beginning year of the EU accession negotiations; “Europeanisation” as preparing for EU accession until 2004, when Hungary became full member of the EU together with 9 other countries. The next phase is the unsuccessful “quest for efficiency” until 2010, including 2008, when the Hungarian state budget faced insolvency and turned to the IMF for a standby loan. Finally, in 2010 the era of continual crisis management started with the financial and economic crisis, the migrant crisis, the Covid–19, and the war in Ukraine.

Application and parameterization of a one‐dimensional multifluid population balance model to bubble columns

AbstractA one‐dimensional (1D) multifluid population balance model approach is presented as a compromise between computational effort and accuracy. The approach is used to test process scenarios, perform sensitivity analysis, and provide a reliable reactor scale‐up and optimization tool. The article focuses on a mini‐plant batch bubble column, where the scale‐up behavior in terms of bubble column height, gas flux, and composition of the liquid phase is investigated. Although simplifications were made, the model requires calibration to experimental data using different calibration methods. An optimal calibration procedure is found that minimizes experimental effort while maximizing scalability. The model was tested on various liquid‐phase compositions, and it was found to reproduce experimental data accurately. However, the model cannot reproduce flow regime changes and does not perform well across substance systems. The study shows that the applied 1D multifluid population balance approach is a valuable and reliable tool in multiphase reactor scale‐up and optimization.

A ‘flawless’ constitutional engineering project in Turkey: regime transformation through constitutional amendments of 2007, 2010, and 2017

ABSTRACT A functional legislature is very vital for democratisation. During the time of democratic consolidation, parliament changes from its primary roles of oversight, representation and legislation into ‘important public arenas of partisan dispute, of encounters with social topics, of negotiations and of important decision-making’. Populist leaders in parliamentary systems like Turkey recently either led to sui generis presidential systems or transformed them into illiberal democracies by expanding the executive branch's power to amend the constitution, which contradicts the favourable conditions of the third wave of democratisation at the turn of the twenty-first century. By streamlining legislative processes, the Turkish Constitution of 1982 envisaged an empowered executive that would subordinate the parliament. The three constitutional modifications passed after 2007 resulted in de-democratisation, de-parliamentarisation and eventually, a regime change from democratic consolidation to autocracy. The parliamentary debates on these constitutional amendments, which included popular presidential election, judicial reform and the so-called 'Turkish style' presidential governance system, failed to reach a consensus and were marked by an adversarial rather than deliberative approach. Have constitutional reforms made in the name of re-democratisation resulted in de-democratisation, with the legislature entirely crippled, the judiciary reliant and the executive exercising sole authority? This study aims to analyse the impact of three consequential constitutional amendments on democratic backsliding in Turkey, with special reference to the decline of parliament. Parliamentary minutes on the relevant constitutional amendments, procedural changes disabling the parliament from performing its legislative and oversight functions and the actual outcomes of these amendments in terms of executive-legislative relations will be discussed. In conclusion, potentials for strengthening parliament, checks and balances, and re-democratisation will be presented.

Modelling flow regulation effects on vegetation recruitment and survival on alternate bars in channelized rivers

AbstractMany river reaches have transitioned to heavily vegetated systems following the regulation of their flow regime. Vegetation recruitment and survival are key to these transformations. We propose a novel predictive approach to detect how changes in the flow regime may affect conditions for successful vegetation recruitment and survival in channelized rivers with alternate bars. Our approach combines elements of existing vegetation recruitment models (Recruitment Box and Window of Opportunity) with simplified morphodynamic predictions of alternate bar migration. The approach is illustrated by applying it to a reach of the regulated Isère river, SE France, which has transitioned from migrating, unvegetated to steady, vegetated alternate bars over two decades following flow regulation associated with hydropower development. Our modelling approach identifies a strong impact of modified summer flows on vegetation recruitment since 1950 when major flow regulation began. An increase of up to 1 cm year−1 (after 1990) has occurred in the vertical extent of vegetation recruitment bands on the bars. This has been accompanied by an almost 20 m total increase (since 1950) in the horizontal extent of the recruitment bands, and a 1.5 times reduction in the frequency of high flows capable of promoting bar migration. Our modelling also suggests viable flow restoration options to limit widespread vegetation colonisation. Comparing outcomes from our modelling approach with those from the Bertagni et al. (2018) model suggests that the Isère may have been highly prone to vegetation colonisation even before flow regulation and close to some threshold for a shift from an unvegetated to a vegetated state.

Contestation and Resilience in the Liberal International Order: The Case of Climate Change

Abstract This article examines contestation and change in the global climate change regime, considered as a suborder of the broader Liberal International Order (LIO). The extensive literature on the LIO has overlooked the important case of climate institutions. The article begins by establishing that the climate regime is indeed part of the LIO, considering both its institutional and ideational features. I then outline the most important episodes of contestation against the regime, led at different times by the United States and emerging powers in the developing world, and note that the sources of contestation were partly endogenous to the regime itself. Despite persistent political challenges and the slow progress of global climate cooperation, the climate regime has remained largely intact and resilient. I explain this outcome by pointing to institutional design features and strategies that allowed the suborder to absorb and accommodate contestation before it escalated, including the nonbinding approach to commitments reflected in the Paris Agreement. The article concludes with a discussion of broader lessons for the LIO and for the design and effectiveness of climate institutions.

A monthly gridded burned area database of national wildland fire data

We assembled the first gridded burned area (BA) database of national wildfire data (ONFIRE), a comprehensive and integrated resource for researchers, non-government organisations, and government agencies analysing wildfires in various regions of the Earth. We extracted and harmonised records from different regions and sources using open and reproducible methods, providing data in a common framework for the whole period available (starting from 1950 in Australia, 1959 in Canada, 1985 in Chile, 1980 in Europe, and 1984 in the United States) up to 2021 on a common 1° × 1° grid. The data originate from national agencies (often, ground mapping), thus representing the best local expert knowledge. Key opportunities and limits in using this dataset are discussed as well as possible future expansions of this open-source approach that should be explored. This dataset complements existing gridded BA data based on remote sensing and offers a valuable opportunity to better understand and assess fire regime changes, and their drivers, in these regions. The ONFIRE database can be freely accessed at https://zenodo.org/record/8289245.

Distinct response patterns of soil micro-eukaryotic communities to early-season and late-season precipitation in a semiarid grassland

Semiarid ecosystems are susceptible to changes in precipitation regimes. However, how soil micro-eukaryote communities in semi-arid ecosystems respond to variations in the seasonal distribution of precipitation remains elusive. A 5-year field experiment was performed to investigate the effect of changed precipitation distributions throughout the growing season on soil micro-eukaryotic communities in the temperate steppe. Early-season precipitation did not significantly affect the biomass of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) nor the composition and structure of AMF and protist communities. Late-season precipitation significantly increased the biomass of AMF while significantly altering the relative abundance of dominant genera in AMF and protist communities. There was a clear difference in the community structure of AMF and protists between the late-season precipitation and natural precipitation. In addition, late-season precipitation decreased the amount of consumer protists but enhanced the abundance of parasitic protists. These results indicate that the impact of precipitation limitations in the middle growing season can be weakened by increased precipitation in the early growing seasons, while an increase in precipitation later in the growing season does not improve the impact of a decrease in precipitation in the middle growing season. Our findings highlight the potential impact of intra-annual changes in precipitation in soil micro-eukaryotic communities in arid and semiarid regions.

Growth regimes of populist governments: a comparative study on Hungary and Poland

This paper aims to contribute to the debate of post-Keynesian growth models and the political economy of populism by investigating the relationship between the changes in demand and growth regimes and the politics of the right-wing populist governments in Poland and Hungary after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In both countries, the GFC was a turning point, leading to the emergence of new economic and political ideas. These processes resulted in changes in the growth regimes and increased the importance of the export sector.