Ocean Changes Research Articles

Impact of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries: Surprises and lessons from key case studies

AbstractMarine heatwaves are increasingly affecting marine ecosystems, with cascading impacts on coastal economies, communities, and food systems. Studies of heatwaves provide crucial insights into potential ecosystem shifts under future climate change and put fisheries social‐ecological systems through “stress tests” that expose both vulnerabilities and resilience. The 2014–16 Northeast Pacific heatwave was the strongest and longest marine heatwave on record and resulted in profound ecological changes that impacted fisheries, fisheries management, and human livelihoods. Here, we synthesize the impacts of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries and extract key lessons for preparing global fisheries science, management, and industries for the future. We set the stage with a brief review of the impacts of the heatwave on marine ecosystems and the first systematic analysis of the economic impacts of these changes on commercial and recreational fisheries. We then examine ten key case studies that provide instructive examples of the complex and surprising challenges that heatwaves pose to fisheries social‐ecological systems. These reveal important insights into improving the resilience of monitoring and management and increasing adaptive capacity to future stressors. Key recommendations include: (1) expanding monitoring to enhance mechanistic understanding, provide early warning signals, and improve predictions of impacts; (2) increasing the flexibility, adaptiveness, and inclusiveness of management where possible; (3) using simulation testing to help guide management decisions; and (4) enhancing the adaptive capacity of fishing communities by promoting engagement, flexibility, experimentation, and failsafes. These advancements are important as global fisheries prepare for a changing ocean.

The influence of ammonium to nitrate ratio on the thermal responses of early life stages of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera

The distribution and productivity of seaweeds, including kelps, are strongly influenced by changes in temperature and inorganic nitrogen (Ni) availability. However, their tolerances, sensitivities, and capacity to adjust to these changes can vary across their complex life cycle (microscopic and macroscopic stages). For the early life stages of Macrocystis, this study investigated the effect of the nitrate: ammonium ratio on physiological traits and gametophyte development at a range of temperatures (6.5 to 26.5 °C). Thermal performance curves (TPCs) were utilized to determine and predict the effect of temperature on meiospore germination success (%), gametophyte size (μm2), sex ratio and physiological traits (photosynthetic efficiency and nitrate and ammonium uptake rates). We found that the presence of NH4+ led to negative NO3− uptake rates in Macrocystis pyrifera gametophytes and reduced growth rates, and results suggest that thermal tolerance windows might vary between developmental stages and physiological traits. Our findings indicate that reduced meiospore germination and gametophyte size induced by suboptimal temperatures and increased NH4+concentrations can lead to lower physiological performance that might subsequently affect adult individuals and populations. Knowledge of the Ni uptake kinetics and source preferences across different life cycle phases can be crucial for conservation and aquaculture purposes as it might increase species productivity and persistence in a changing ocean.

Global Mean Sea Level Rise Inferred From Ocean Salinity and Temperature Changes

AbstractBarystatic sea level rise (SLR) caused by the addition of freshwater to the ocean from melting ice can in principle be recorded by a reduction in seawater salinity, but detection of this signal has been hindered by sparse data coverage and the small trends compared to natural variability. Here, we develop an autoregressive machine learning method to estimate salinity changes in the global ocean from 2001 to 2019 that reduces uncertainties in ocean freshening trends by a factor of four compared to previous estimates. We find that the ocean mass rose by 13,000 ± 3,000 Gt from 2001 to 2019, implying a barystatic SLR of 2.0 ± 0.5 mm/yr. Combined with SLR of 1.3 ± 0.1 mm/yr due to ocean thermal expansion, these results suggest that global mean sea level rose by 3.4 ± 0.6 mm/yr from 2001 to 2019. These results provide an important validation of remote‐sensing measurements of ocean mass changes, global SLR, and global ice budgets.

On Evaluating the Predictability of Sea Surface Temperature Using Entropy

Sea surface temperature (SST) has important impacts on the global ecology, and having a good understanding of the predictability, i.e., the possibility of achieving accurate prediction, of SST can help us monitor the marine environment and climate change, and guide the selection and design of SST prediction methods. However, existing studies for analyzing SST mostly measure the rising or falling trends of SST. To address this issue, we introduce a temporal-correlated entropy to quantify the predictability of SST series from both global coarse-grained and local fine-grained aspects, and make SST prediction with multiple deep learning models to prove the effectiveness of such predictability evaluation method. In addition, we explore the dynamics of SST predictability by dividing the time range of interest into consecutive time periods, evaluating the corresponding predictability of SST for each time period, and analyzing the stability of the predictability of SST over time. According to the experiments, the SST predictability values near the poles and equator are really high. The average SST predictability values of the East China Sea, Bohai Sea, and Antarctic Ocean are 0.719, 0.706, and 0.886, respectively, and the size relationship of the SST predictability in the three local sea areas is consistent with our prediction results using multiple representative SST prediction methods, which corroborates the reliability of the predictability evaluation method. In addition, we found that the SST predictability in the Antarctic Ocean changes more dramatically over time than in the East China Sea and the Bohai Sea. The results of SST predictability and its dynamic analysis indicate that global warming, ocean currents, and human activities all have significant impacts on the predictability of SST.

Ecological divergence of a mesocosm in an eastern boundary upwelling system assessed with multi-marker environmental DNA metabarcoding

Abstract. Eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) contribute a disproportionate fraction of the global fish catch relative to their size and are especially susceptible to global environmental change. Here we present the evolution of communities over 50 d in an in situ mesocosm 6 km offshore of Callao, Peru, and in the nearby unenclosed coastal Pacific Ocean. The communities were monitored using multi-marker environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding and flow cytometry. DNA extracted from weekly water samples were subjected to amplicon sequencing for four genetic loci: (1) the V1–V2 region of the 16S rRNA gene for photosynthetic eukaryotes (via their chloroplasts) and bacteria; (2) the V9 region of the 18S rRNA gene for exploration of eukaryotes but targeting phytoplankton; (3) cytochrome oxidase I (COI) for exploration of eukaryotic taxa but targeting invertebrates; and (4) the 12S rRNA gene, targeting vertebrates. The multi-marker approach showed a divergence of communities (from microbes to fish) between the mesocosm and the unenclosed ocean. Together with the environmental information, the genetic data furthered our mechanistic understanding of the processes that are shaping EBUS communities in a changing ocean. The unenclosed ocean experienced significant variability over the course of the 50 d experiment, with temporal shifts in community composition, but remained dominated by organisms that are characteristic of high-nutrient upwelling conditions (e.g., diatoms, copepods, anchovies). A large directional change was found in the mesocosm community. The mesocosm community that developed was characteristic of upwelling regions when upwelling relaxes and waters stratify (e.g., dinoflagellates, nanoflagellates). The selection of dinoflagellates under the salinity-driven experimentally stratified conditions in the mesocosm, as well as the warm conditions brought about by the coastal El Niño, may be an indication of how EBUS will respond under the global environmental changes (i.e., increases in surface temperature and freshwater input, leading to increased stratification) forecast by the IPCC.

Body condition changes at sea: Onboard calculation and telemetry of body density in diving animals

Abstract The ability of marine mammals to accumulate sufficient lipid energy reserves is vital for mammals' survival and successful reproduction. However, long‐term monitoring of at‐sea changes in body condition, specifically lipid stores, has only been possible in elephant seals performing prolonged drift dives (low‐density lipids alter the rates of depth change while drifting). This approach has limited applicability to other species. Using hydrodynamic performance analysis during transit glides, we developed and validated a novel satellite‐linked data logger that calculates real‐time changes in body density (∝lipid stores). As gliding is ubiquitous amongst divers, the system can assess body condition in a broad array of diving animals. The tag processes high sampling rate depth and three‐axis acceleration data to identify 5 s high pitch angle glide segments at depths >100 m. Body density is estimated for each glide using gliding speed and pitch to quantify drag versus buoyancy forces acting on the gliding animal. We used tag data from 24 elephant seals (Mirounga spp.) to validate the onboard calculation of body density relative to drift rate. The new tags relayed body density estimates over 200 days and documented lipid store accumulation during migration with good correspondence between changes in body density and drift rate. Our study provided updated drag coefficient values for gliding (Cd,f = 0.03) and drifting (Cd,s = 0.12) elephant seals, both substantially lower than previous estimates. We also demonstrated post‐hoc estimation of the gliding drag coefficient and body density using transmitted data, which is especially useful when drag parameters cannot be estimated with sufficient accuracy before tag deployment. Our method has the potential to advance the field of marine biology by switching the research paradigm from indirectly inferring animal body condition from foraging effort to directly measuring changes in body condition relative to foraging effort, habitat, ecological factors and anthropogenic stressors in the changing oceans. Expanding the method to account for diving air volumes will expand the system's applicability to shallower‐diving (<100 m) species, facilitating real‐time monitoring of body condition in a broad range of breath‐hold divers.

Genome-wide phylogeography reveals cryptic speciation in the circumglobal planktonic calcifier Limacina bulimoides.

Little is known about when and how planktonic species arise and persist in the open ocean without apparent dispersal barriers. Pteropods are planktonic snails with thin shells susceptible to dissolution that are used as bio-indicators of ocean acidification. However, distinct evolutionary units respond to acidification differently, and defining species boundaries is therefore crucial for predicting the impact of changing ocean conditions. In this global population genomic study of the shelled pteropod Limacina bulimoides, we combined genetic (759,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms) and morphometric data from 161 individuals, revealing three major genetic lineages (FST = 0.29-0.41): an "Atlantic lineage" sampled across the Atlantic, an "Indo-Pacific lineage" sampled in the North Pacific and Indian Ocean, and a "Pacific lineage" sampled in the North and South Pacific. A time-calibrated phylogeny suggests that the lineages diverged about 1 million years ago, with estimated effective population size remaining high (~10 million) throughout Pleistocene glacial cycles. We do not observe any signatures of recent hybridization, even in areas of sympatry in the North Pacific. While the lineages are reproductively isolated, they are morphologically cryptic, with overlapping shell shape and shell colour distributions. Despite showing that the circumglobal L. bulimoides consists of multiple species with smaller ranges than initially thought, we found that these pteropods still possess high levels of genetic variability. Our study adds to the growing evidence that speciation is often overlooked in the open ocean, and suggests the presence of distinct biological species within many other currently defined circumglobal planktonic species.

Smoothed particle hydrodynamics for modelling cold-water coral habitats in changing oceans

Smoothed particle hydrodynamics for modelling cold-water coral habitats in changing oceans

Tracking contemporary microbial evolution in a changing ocean.

Ocean microbes are fundamental for the functioning of the Earth system. Yet, our understanding of how they are reacting to global change in terms of evolution is limited. Microbes typically grow in large populations and reproduce quickly, which may allow them to rapidly adapt to environmental stressors compared to larger organisms. However, genetic evidence of contemporary evolution in wild microbes is scarce. We must begin coordinated efforts to establish new microbial time-series and explore novel tools, experiments, and data to fill this knowledge gap. The development of coordinated microbial 'genomic' observatories will provide the unprecedented opportunity to track contemporary microbial evolution in the ocean and explore the role of evolution in enabling wild microbes to respond to global change.

In Vivo Mercury (De)Methylation Metabolism in Cephalopods under Different pCO2 Scenarios.

This work quantified the accumulation efficiencies of Hg in cuttlefish, depending on both organic (MeHg) and inorganic (Hg(II)) forms, under increased pCO2 (1600 μatm). Cuttlefish were fed with live shrimps injected with two Hg stable isotopic tracers (Me202Hg and 199Hg(II)), which allowed for the simultaneous quantification of internal Hg accumulation, Hg(II) methylation, and MeHg demethylation rates in different organs. Results showed that pCO2 had no impact on Hg bioaccumulation and organotropism, and both Hg and pCO2 did not influence the microbiota diversity of gut and digestive gland. However, the results also demonstrated that the digestive gland is a key organ for in vivo MeHg demethylation. Consequently, cuttlefish exposed to environmental levels of MeHg could exhibit in vivo MeHg demethylation. We hypothesize that in vivo MeHg demethylation could be due to biologically induced reactions or to abiotic reactions. This has important implications as to how some marine organisms may respond to future ocean change and global mercury contamination.

Coastal upwelling drives ecosystem temporal variability from the surface to the abyssal seafloor

Long-term biological time series that monitor ecosystems across the ocean's full water column are extremely rare. As a result, classic paradigms are yet to be tested. One such paradigm is that variations in coastal upwelling drive changes in marine ecosystems throughout the water column. We examine this hypothesis by using data from three multidecadal time series spanning surface (0 m), midwater (200 to 1,000 m), and benthic (~4,000 m) habitats in the central California Current Upwelling System. Data include microscopic counts of surface plankton, video quantification of midwater animals, and imaging of benthic seafloor invertebrates. Taxon-specific plankton biomass and midwater and benthic animal densities were separately analyzed with principal component analysis. Within each community, the first mode of variability corresponds to most taxa increasing and decreasing over time, capturing seasonal surface blooms and lower-frequency midwater and benthic variability. When compared to local wind-driven upwelling variability, each community correlates to changes in upwelling damped over distinct timescales. This suggests that periods of high upwelling favor increase in organism biomass or density from the surface ocean through the midwater down to the abyssal seafloor. These connections most likely occur directly via changes in primary production and vertical carbon flux, and to a lesser extent indirectly via other oceanic changes. The timescales over which species respond to upwelling are taxon-specific and are likely linked to the longevity of phytoplankton blooms (surface) and of animal life (midwater and benthos), which dictate how long upwelling-driven changes persist within each community.

Reinterpreting radiocarbon records in bamboo corals – New insights from the tropical North Atlantic

Deep-sea bamboo corals (family Isididae) have been used as archives for reconstructing changes in the past ocean. However, uncertainties remain regarding the interpretation of geochemical signals from their organic nodes, specifically the water depth of the signals recorded by the coral. Here we explore this question by measuring radiocarbon (14C) and nitrogen (15N) isotopic compositions of the organic nodes in six bamboo corals collected from the central and eastern tropical Atlantic between 700 m and 2000 m water depth. By comparing coral 14C to measured seawater data, regional shallow-water coral records and climate-model outputs, we find contrasting results between the two regions. Our bamboo coral 14C results from the eastern tropical Atlantic support previous studies that suggest organic node carbon is sourced primarily from the mixed layer of the ocean. By contrast, the 14C of bamboo coral organic nodes from the oligotrophic central Atlantic better correlates with the 14C content of the subsurface deep chlorophyll maximum layer rather than the surface mixed layer. Combined with nitrogen isotope data, this observation suggests that sinking and/or ambient zooplankton feeding on phytoplankton from the deep chlorophyll maximum layer can contribute a significant proportion of the diet of bamboo corals. These results suggest that the carbon source for bamboo corals organic nodes may not always reside in the mixed layer, especially in oligotrophic regions, which has implications for 14C-based age model development in bamboo corals.

Understanding opposing predictions of Prochlorococcus in a changing climate

Statistically derived species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict ecological changes on a warming planet. For Prochlorococcus, the most abundant phytoplankton, an established statistical prediction conflicts with dynamical models as they predict large, opposite, changes in abundance. We probe the SDM at various spatial-temporal scales, showing that light and temperature fail to explain both temporal fluctuations and sharp spatial transitions. Strong correlations between changes in temperature and population emerge only at very large spatial scales, as transects pass through transitions between regions of high and low abundance. Furthermore, a two-state model based on a temperature threshold matches the original SDM in the surface ocean. We conclude that the original SDM has little power to predict changes when Prochlorococcus is already abundant, which resolves the conflict with dynamical models. Our conclusion suggests that SDMs should prove efficacy across multiple spatial-temporal scales before being trusted in a changing ocean.

Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean

In a warming climate, the Global Meridional Overturning Circulation (GMOC) is expected to change significantly with a risk of disrupting the global redistribution of ocean properties that sustains marine ecosystems, carbon cycle, and others. Here we make a novel attempt to utilize a diagnostic ocean & sea-ice model to estimate the GMOC and its interdecadal changes since the mid-1950s that are consistent with historical hydrographic observations. We find that significant changes in the GMOC have already occurred, most notably in the upper and lower overturning cells in the Southern Ocean. The former has expanded poleward and into denser water and strengthened by 3–4 Sv since the mid-1970s, while the latter has contracted and weakened by a similar rate during the same period. These changes are driven by the increasing Southern Hemisphere (SH) Ferrel cell and associated increases in the westerlies and the surface buoyancy loss over its sinking branch, and the increasing Antarctic meltwater discharge, in response to ozone depletion in the SH stratosphere and increasing atmospheric CO2. A large-scale readjustment of the GMOC seems to be underway in the South Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Oceans since the mid-2000s in response to the Southern Ocean changes.

Larval rockfish growth and survival in response to anomalous ocean conditions

Understanding how future ocean conditions will affect populations of marine species is integral to predicting how climate change will impact both ecosystem function and fisheries management. Fish population dynamics are driven by variable survival of the early life stages, which are highly sensitive to environmental conditions. As global warming generates extreme ocean conditions (i.e., marine heatwaves) we can gain insight into how larval fish growth and mortality will change in warmer conditions. The California Current Large Marine Ecosystem experienced anomalous ocean warming from 2014 to 2016, creating novel conditions. We examined the otolith microstructure of juveniles of the economically and ecologically important black rockfish (Sebastes melanops) collected from 2013 to 2019 to quantify the implications of changing ocean conditions on early growth and survival. Our results demonstrated that fish growth and development were positively related to temperature, but survival to settlement was not directly related to ocean conditions. Instead, settlement had a dome-shaped relationship with growth, suggesting an optimal growth window. Our results demonstrated that the dramatic change in water temperature caused by such extreme warm water anomalies increased black rockfish growth in the larval stage; however, without sufficient prey or with high predator abundance these extreme conditions contributed to reduced survival.

The Ordovician System: Key concepts, events and its distribution across Europe

Abstract The Ordovician was a key period in the biological and geological history of the planet. ‘A Global Synthesis of the Ordovician System’ is presented in two volumes of The Geological Society, Special Publications . This first volume (SP532) charts the history of the Ordovician System and explores significant advances in our understanding of the period's biostratigraphy, including more precise calibration of its timescale with tephra chronology and regional alignments using astrochronology and cyclostratigraphy. Changes in the world's oceans, their shifting currents and sea levels, the biogeography of their biotas and the ambient climate are described and discussed against a background of changing palaeogeography. This first volume also includes syntheses of Ordovician geology of most European countries, including historical key areas, such as the British Isles, Baltoscandia and Bohemia.

Sensitivity of fishery resources to climate change in the warm-temperate Southwest Atlantic Ocean

Climate change impacts on fishery resources have been widely reported worldwide. Nevertheless, a knowledge gap remains for the warm-temperate Southwest Atlantic Ocean—a global warming hotspot that sustains important industrial and small-scale fisheries. By combining a trait-based framework and long-term landing records, we assessed species’ sensitivity to climate change and potential changes in the distribution of important fishery resources (n = 28; i.e., bony fishes, chondrichthyans, crustaceans, and mollusks) in Southern Brazil, Uruguay, and the northern shelf of Argentina. Most species showed moderate or high sensitivity, with mollusks (e.g., sedentary bivalves and snails) being the group with the highest sensitivity, followed by chondrichthyans. Bony fishes showed low and moderate sensitivities, while crustacean sensitivities were species-specific. The stock and/or conservation status overall contributed the most to higher sensitivity. Between 1989 and 2019, species with low and moderate sensitivity dominated regional landings, regardless of the jurisdiction analyzed. A considerable fraction of these landings consisted of species scoring high or very high on an indicator for potential to change their current distribution. These results suggest that although the bulk of past landings were from relatively climate-resilient species, future catches and even entire benthic fisheries may be jeopardized because (1) some exploited species showed high or very high sensitivities and (2) the increase in the relative representation of landings in species whose distribution may change. This paper provides novel results and insights relevant for fisheries management from a region where the effects of climate change have been overlooked, and which lacks a coordinated governance system for climate-resilient fisheries.

Transcriptome analysis of two bloom-forming Prorocentrum species reveals physiological changes related to light and temperature

Temperature and light substantially influence red tide succession. However, it remains unclear whether the molecular mechanisms differ among species. In this study, we measured the variation in the physiological parameters of growth and pigments and transcriptional levels of two bloom-forming dinoflagellates, namely Prorocentrum micans and P. cordatum. This was undertaken in four treatments that represented two factorial temperature combinations (LT: 20 °C, HT: 28 °C) and light conditions (LL: 50 µmol photons m-2 s-1, HL: 400 µmol photons m-2 s-1) for 7-day batch culture. Growth under high temperature and high light (HTHL) was the fastest, while growth under high temperature and low light (HTLL) was the slowest. The pigments (chlorophyll a and carotenoids) decreased significantly in all high light (HL) treatments, but not in high temperature (HT) treatments. HL alleviated the low light-caused photolimitation and enhanced the growth of both species at low temperatures. However, HT inhibited the growth of both species by inducing oxidative stress under low light conditions. HL mitigated the HT-induced stress on growth in both species by upregulating photosynthesis, antioxidase activity, protein folding, and degradation. The cells of P. micans were more sensitive to HT and HL than those of P. cordatum. This study deepens our understanding of the species-specific mechanism of dinoflagellates at the transcriptomic level, adapting to the future ocean changes including higher solar radiation and higher temperatures in the upper mixed layer.

Seasonal and diel habitat use of blue marlin Makaira nigricans in the North Atlantic Ocean

Abstract Knowledge of blue marlin, Makaira nigricans, movement patterns across a range of spatiotemporal scales is important for understanding the ecology of this epipelagic fish, informing responsible management strategies, and understanding the potential impacts of a changing ocean climate to the species. To gain insight into movement patterns, we analyzed data from 66 blue marlin satellite-tagged between 2001 and 2021 throughout the North Atlantic. We recorded migrations connecting west and east Atlantic tagging locations, as well as long-term residency within small sub-regions. Blue marlin showed a pattern of latitudinal migration, occupying lower latitudes during cooler months and higher latitudes in warmer months. Diving data indicate blue marlin primarily inhabited a shallow vertical habitat with deeper diving associated with higher sea surface temperatures and dissolved oxygen content. Consistent patterns in diel vertical habitat use support the hypothesis that these fish are visual hunters, diving deeper during the day, as well as dawn, dusk, and full moon periods. The wide-ranging movements of blue marlin indicate that traditional spatial management measures, such as static marine reserves, are unlikely to be effective in reducing the fishing mortality of this species. Longer tag deployment durations are required to delineate its annual and multi-annual migratory cycle.

I know what you did last winter: Bowhead whale anomalous winter acoustic occurrence patterns in the Beaufort Sea, 2018–2020

Global warming is affecting the Arctic at a faster pace than the rest of the world, causing an urgent need to monitor ecosystems to detect possible climate-related changes. To this end, five passive acoustic datasets were recorded in the southern Amundsen Gulf (eastern Beaufort Sea) from September 2018 to September 2020 and analyzed for Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort (BCB) bowhead whale calls using a combination of automated and manual detections. Results indicate a large variation in bowhead occurrence patterns between the two years. For 2018–2019, we obtained the first evidence of bowheads overwintering in what is typically their summer foraging ground. Examination of the following year’s recordings sheds light on whether this interruption in bowhead annual migration was an anomaly or part of an ongoing phenological shift due to climate change. Time series of remotely sensed sea ice concentration at the study area were considered over the last seven years in interpreting differences in migratory behavior of the whales. Statistical quantification of seasonal patterns and habitat preferences of bowheads, based on the 2018–2019 acoustic data, are presented to provide context to BCB bowhead ecology. Passive acoustic monitoring is an indispensable tool in discerning whale responses to a changing ocean in the Arctic.