Changes In Land Use Types Research Articles

Pinglu Canal Construction and Its Impact on Wildlife Habitat Connectivity: A Multi-Species Network Analysis and Ecological Restoration Strategy

The construction of the Pinglu Canal has significantly promoted economic development in southwestern Guangxi but it has also posed serious threats to wildlife habitat connectivity in the region. During the construction process, changes in land use types have led to habitat fragmentation, triggering a series of negative ecological effects, such as the “ecological island effect” and “edge effect”. This study uses the MaxEnt model to identify habitats for 11 wildlife species within the study area, categorized into terrestrial mammals, amphibians and reptiles, forest birds, and water birds, thereby constructing a multi-species habitat connectivity network (MHCN). Through complex network analysis, we assess habitat connectivity before and after the canal’s construction, as well as after implementing habitat optimization strategies. The results indicate that, following the completion of the Pinglu Canal, the wildlife habitat area decreased by 516.47 square kilometers, accounting for 5.79% of the total area, and the number of wildlife migration corridors decreased from 279 to 223, with a total decline of 56. Moreover, the average degree and clustering coefficient of habitat connectivity networks for various species showed a downward trend, while the average path length increased, indicating intensified habitat fragmentation and a growing threat to biodiversity in the region. In response, an ecological restoration strategy is proposed, which involves creating new habitats at key ecological “pinch points” and “barrier points,” increasing habitat area by 28.13% and the number of migration corridors by 33.41%, significantly enhancing the network’s robustness and connectivity. This research provides important references for biodiversity conservation and ecological restoration in the region.

Carbon Stock Changes and Forecasting in Xinjiang Based on PLUS and InVEST Model Approach

Land use change is the main cause of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the impact mechanisms of carbon stock changes in different land use types in the arid zone and simulating future changes in land use and carbon stock under different scenarios will help to formulate a scientific land use policy for the arid zone to promote high-quality and sustainable development in the region. Based on the Xinjiang land use data from 2000 to 2020, the coupled PLUS-InVEST model analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use and carbon stock in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020 and predicted the changes in land use and carbon stock in Xinjiang in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development （Z1）, economic development （Z2）, sustainable development （Z3）, arable land preservation development （Z4）, and ecological protection development （Z5）. The results showed that ① From 2000 to 2020, the total value of carbon stock in Xinjiang showed an overall decreasing trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with a total decrease of 4.268 2×108 t. The large amount of grassland degraded into unutilized land was the main reason for the decrease in carbon stock in Xinjiang. ② Analysis of the contribution rate of carbon stock changes in different land use types showed that the main influencing factors for carbon stock changes in cropland, forest land, grassland, watersheds, and unutilized land were natural factors, and the main influencing factors for carbon stock changes in construction land were humanistic and economic. Additionally, the reasons for the changes in carbon stock in Xinjiang were the result of the joint influence of natural factors and humanistic and economic factors. ③ Compared with that in 2020, the five development scenarios of Xinjiang in 2030 kept the trend of increasing carbon stock, among which the sustainable development （Z3） scenario increased 66.723 6×106 t the most. This was the optimal development mode to increase the carbon stock of Xinjiang in the future and consider economic development. The results of the above study can provide a theoretical basis for the future spatial planning of Xinjiang and the realization of the goal of "carbon neutrality".

Impact of Different Land-Use Types on Soil Microbial Carbon Metabolism Function in Arid Region of Alpine Grassland.

There are discrepancies that exist in the effects of different land uses on soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil microbial carbon metabolism functions. However, the impact of land-use type changes on soil microbial carbon metabolism in alpine grassland arid areas is not well understood, hindering our understanding of the carbon cycling processes in these ecosystems. Therefore, we chose three types of land use (continuous reclamation of grassland (RG), abandoned grassland (AG), and natural grazing grassland (GG)) to study the microbial carbon metabolism and its driving factors by the Biolog-ECO method. The results showed that the soil organic carbon content decreased by 16.02% in the RG and by 32.1% in the AG compared to the GG in the 0-20 cm soil layer (p < 0.05). Additionally, microorganisms have the highest utilization efficiency of carbohydrate carbon sources, the average values of average well color development (AWCD) were RG (0.26), AG (0.35), and GG (0.26). In the 0-20 cm soil layer, the Shannon-Wiener and the Simpson indices were 3% and 1% higher in the AG compared to the GG, respectively. The soil TOC/TN and soil available phosphorus (AP) were key factors that affected the diversity of soil microbial and carbon metabolism. They were closely related to land-use types. This study holds that abandoning grasslands accelerates the carbon metabolism of microorganisms, leading to the loss of SOC content.

Land-use change from native forest to avocado orchards: Effects on soil nutrient transformation and microbial communities

Land-use change is known to alter soil microbial communities and the processes they carry out. However, there is meager information about how conversion of natural forests to agricultural land for avocado production affects soil nutrient concentration and microbial activity and diversity. Total soil nutrients (C, N and P), microbial ecoenzymatic activity, and microbial diversity were studied in avocado orchards and contiguous forest fragments in Michoacán state, México. Within orchards, samples were taken from fertilized areas beneath avocado trees as well as from unfertilized areas. Results showed that (i) total phosphorus concentration was higher in avocado orchards compared to native forests soils; (ii) transformation of native forests to avocado orchards decreased the ecoenzymatic activity necessary for degradation of lignified compounds and phosphate monoesters; (iii) bacterial diversity was higher in avocado orchard soils compared to native forest soils while fungal diversity was higher in avocado unfertilized soils; (v) transformation of native forests to avocado orchards increased the evenness of bacterial and fungal communities; (vi) transformation of native forest to avocado orchards caused significant changes in the composition of soil microbial communities; however, this was clearer for fungal communities than for bacterial communities; (vii) abundance of ectomycorrhizal fungi and antagonists of plant pathogens decreased in avocado orchards while pathogenic and saprotrophic fungal guilds increased. Our results suggest that land use change from native forest to avocado orchards generates important changes in the dynamics of soil organic carbon and soil organic phosphorus in avocado orchard soils, probably due to the predominant conventional management model in the avocado belt. Furthermore, this type of land use change results in the increased abundance of important microbial groups identified as phytopathogens and the decrease of beneficial microbial groups. These changes should be taken into account to formulate forest and soil conservation polices and of more sustainable agricultural management models that consider soil microbial communities and their functions.

Spatial–Temporal Evolution Pattern of Soil Erosion and Its Dominant Factors on the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2020

Global changes have led to significant changes in soil erosion on the Loess Plateau. Soil erosion leads to the degradation of land resources and a decline in soil fertility, adversely affecting agricultural production and the socioeconomic situation. Therefore, revealing the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau region and investigating the influencing factors that contribute to soil erosion are crucial for its management and restoration. In this study, the RUSLE monthly model and the Geodetector model were utilized to reveal the spatiotemporal trends of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2020 and to determine the dominant influencing factors in different periods. The main results are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the soil erosion in the Loess Plateau initially weakened and then intensified, indicating that precipitation and precipitation intensity have different effects on surface soil. (2) From 2000 to 2015, the area experiencing slight and mild erosion increased. This is attributed to the increase in vegetation coverage in the Loess Plateau region, which has alleviated soil erosion in the area. (3) From 2000 to 2020, zones of severe soil erosion were mainly located in the cities of Yan’an and Yulin and their surrounding areas. The gravity center of soil erosion shifted northwestward from Yan’an City overall, indicating an improvement in the soil erosion conditions in the Yan’an area. (4) The predominant level of soil erosion across different land-use types was slight erosion, accounting for over 40%. This may be a result of forestry ecological projects that effectively reduce soil loss. (5) In slope zones of 0–5°, slight erosion accounted for the largest area proportion. As the slope increased, the area proportion of severe and extremely severe erosion also increased. This is attributed to the protective role of vegetation on soil in gentle slope areas. (6) From 2000 to 2020, vegetation was the dominant single factor influencing the spatiotemporal changes in soil erosion, while the interactions between vegetation and land use had the largest explanatory power, indicating that changes in land-use types partially affect variations in vegetation coverage. Our research findings could provide important data support for soil erosion control and eco-environment restoration in the Loess Plateau region.

Combined effects of urbanization and climate variability on water and carbon balances in a rice paddy-dominated basin in southern China

Abstract Urbanization is known to elevate storm runoff, but how it influences carbon cycle and ecosystem productivity through altering the evapotranspiration (ET) process is less clear. We examined the combined effects of urbanization including change in impervious surface area (ISA) and climate variability on the water and carbon balances of the Qinhuai River Basin (QRB) over 2001–2018. QRB represents a typical rice paddy-dominated region that experienced rapid urbanization in southern China. We improved a monthly scale water supply stress index ecosystem service model by integrating local eddy flux measurements and high-resolution remote sensing data. We found a significant downward trend in both ET (−4.6 mm yr−1, p &lt; 0.05) and gross primary productivity (GPP) (−10.4 gC m−2 yr−1, p &lt; 0.05) but a significant upward trend in water yield (Q) (+28.6 mm yr−1, p &lt; 0.05). These ecosystem function changes coincided with a 96% increase in urban areas, 1.9-fold increase in ISA, and a 37% reduction in rice paddy fields. The mean annual watershed GPP decreased from 1048 gC m−2 to 998 gC m−2 while the annual Q increased from 284 mm to 669 mm from 2001 to 2018. Scenario modeling experiments suggested that the negative impacts of loss of rice paddy fields and increase in ISA on ET and GPP overwhelmed the positive impacts of climate warming. The reduction in GPP and increase in Q were largely attributed to the increases in ISA, not necessarily due to changes in land use types (e.g. urban area). The expansion of urban area, increase in ISA and reduction in leaf area index, and increase in precipitation explained the increase in Q. Our research offers insight about the interactions of carbon and water cycles through the critical ET processes under a changing climate and land surface characteristics at a watershed level. Our modeling tool and analysis provides land managers and policy makers information for designing effective ‘Urban Nature-based Solutions’ to mitigate the negative environmental effects of urbanization on carbon and water resources.

Network analysis was effective in establishing the soil quality index and differentiated among changes in land-use type

Understanding the implications of land-use type on soil quality and function is critical to the adoption of suitable agricultural management practices in a specific region. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widespread technique for calculating soil quality index (SQI), but it cannot correctly evaluate soil quality in some cases. Network analysis (NA) is a novel and effective technique for calculating SQI for determining susceptibility in different land uses but it is still limited. Moreover, few studies have compared NA and PCA to quantify soil quality. This study aimed to develop valid and accurate SQIs through NA and PCA to estimate the impacts of land-use types (cropland, forest, and grassland) on SQIs in Tongliao and Qiqihar, which are the two regions subject to frequent wind erosion in northeast China. A total of 27 soil physical, chemical, and biological properties were measured for the selection of the minimum data set (MDS), and eight SQI values were determined for each study site using additive or weighted methods and linear or nonlinear scoring functions. Results indicated that most soil attributes and SQIs varied markedly among three land-use types and were greater in grasslands or forests than in croplands. The amount of MDS generated using NA was considerably low, but soil physicochemical and biological properties were comprehensively covered. SOC in Tongliao and SHC in Qiqihar were selected by both methods and were considered the most sensitive soil quality indicators for detecting the effects of land-use types. The soil sensitivity index of the SQI calculated by NA (1.34–2.02) was higher than that of the SQI calculated by PCA (1.30–1.80). Thus, NA was more effective than PCA in computing the SQI and differentiated among changes in land use better as a simple and stable tool. The SQI developed through NA using the weighted method and nonlinear scoring function is a suitable and practical quantitative tool for SQI assessment, which is proposed to be used for soil quality assessment for various land-use types in northeast China.

Rural development drives temporal turnover in plant diversity in a China’s scenic area

Abstract Although rural development can improve the well-being of villagers, it can also affect local plant diversity. Furthermore, plant diversity varies across different subareas of rural growth efforts in scenic areas, reflecting differences along the center-periphery gradient. Based on plant species data and satellite remote sensing images from 1984 and 2021, this study analyzed the changes in land-use types of rural development in Hangzhou West Lake Scenic Area and their impacts on plant diversity in the central, middle, and peripheral scenic areas. The results indicated that the area of rural construction land decreased, compared to 1984, while other land use types showed varying degrees of increase. Specifically, part of the forest in the peripheral scenic area was transformed into tea fields, resulting in an observable increase in the overall area. Moreover, the number of plant species decreased along the center-periphery gradient of the scenic area. The greatest differences in the number of plant species and increases in the number of invasive plants were found in the peripheral scenic area, reflecting the greater impact of rural development in this region. Additionally, the number of rare and endangered plant species increased the most in the central scenic area in recent years, which was related to the use of urban green space to protect such plants. Ellenberg's ecological indicator values (EIVs) determined that increasing species in the scenic area preferred shady locations and acidic soils. The changes of land use modes and production and business activity strategies in the villages of the West Lake Scenic Area had improved the villagers' well-being, and the resulting factors such as the introduction of non-indigenous plants and environmental filtering had an influence local plant diversity. Therefore, the administrators should carefully consider the trade-off between conserving biodiversity and enhancing the well-being of the local villagers.&amp;#xD;

Perturbation of soil organic carbon induced by land-use change from primary forest

Abstract The impact of land-use change (LUC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) has been a wide concern of land management policymakers because CO2 emissions induced by LUC have been the second largest carbon source worldwide. However, due to insufficient data quality and limited biome coverage, a global big picture of the impact of LUC on SOC is still not clear. This study conducted a meta-analysis on 288 independent observations sourced from 62 peer-reviewed papers to provide a global summary of the change in SOC after the conversion of primary forests into other land-use types. The conversion of primary forest to cropland resulted in the most severe SOC loss (−33.2%), followed by conversion into plantation forests (−22.3%) and secondary forests (−19.1%). Nonetheless, SOC increased by 9.1% after a conversion from primary forests into pasture. More SOC loss was found at sites with lower precipitation for primary forests converted to cropland and plantation forests. The SOC loss decreased consistently with increasing mean annual temperature (MAT) for all four types of LUC. Moreover, the loss of SOC tended to worsen over time when primary forests are converted to cropland or plantation forests. In contrast, SOC loss recovered over time following conversion to secondary forests. The gain of SOC gradually increased over time after conversion to pastures. To conclude, the changes in SOC are related not only to the land-use type but also to precipitation, temperature and turn years after LUC. Due to limited data, this study focuses on soil profiles within 30 cm depth, and future research should explore SOC dynamics induced by LUC at greater depths. Overall, cases of SOC loss of approximately 30% following deforestation were very common (except for conversion to pasture), and the results of this study show that the loss of SOC following LUC should be carefully considered and monitored in land management.

Ecological protection makes the ecological Kuznets curve turning point come earlier

Exploring the relationship between land use cover/change (LUCC) and ecosystem service value (ESV) under different future scenarios can provide guidance for selecting future development patterns and for the scientific utilization of land resources in the region. In this study, LUCC under different scenarios in the North Slope of Tianshan Mountain (NSTM) was simulated using the PLUS model. The ESV coefficients were adjusted for regional differences and social development factors to better reflect the actual situation in the study area. The interactions between LUCC, landscape pattern (LSP), and ESV were systematically analyzed, while at the same time, ESV and the level of economic development were fitted to the Ecological Kuznets Curve, which was then used to determine its trend and inflection point. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) Cropland and unused land are the main types of land use change in the NSTM, both historically and in the future. Cropland shows an increase in the natural development scenario and a decrease in the ecological protection scenario. Unused land shows an increase in the different development scenarios, indicating that unused land has higher development potential in the NSTM. NSTM shows a continuous decrease in ESV in the natural development scenario and a continuous increase in ESV in the ecological protection scenario. (2) LSP in both historical and future NSTM have evolved to show fragmentation, heterogeneity, and complexity in patch forms. However, this trend is slower in the ecological protection scenario than in the natural development scenario. LUCC, LSP, and ESV form an integrated framework of interactions, where LUCC influences ESV through LSP, and changes in ESV feedback to LUCC through LSP, which acts as a bridging mediator. (3) The Ecological Kuznets Curve of NSTM exhibits an N-shape, showing a clear overall rightward trend across different development scenarios at the annual level. At the interannual level, the curves for the natural development scenario are situated in the middle of the declining phase of the N-shape, with no ecological inflection point occurring during the study period. In contrast, the curves for the ecological protection scenario display a declining-ascending trend, with the ecological inflection point occurring when per capita GDP reaches 2.5 × 10^6 CNY.

Understanding future water-carbon-land coupled systems in the era of COP 27: The case of the Hanjiang river Basin, China

The 27th Conference of the Parties (COP 27) emphasized addressing this century's interconnected challenges of food, water, and energy. This study proposes a coupled ecosystem service and multi-scenario land-use change simulation model designed to investigate the future dynamics of water-carbon-land coupled systems in the Hanjiang River Basin (HJRB), the primary objective is to provide valuable insights that can inform strategic spatial management decisions, aligning with the ambitious objectives outlined in COP 27. Specifically, this study utilized the PLUS model, InVEST model, and redundancy analysis to comprehensively analyze the interplay between ecosystem services and land-use changes, with a specific focus on water, carbon, and land dynamics. The results showed that regardless of the simulated scenarios, there was a consistent pattern observed in the changes of land use types within the HJRB, with a decrease in farmland and an increase in forest. However, the water area showed an increasing trend in all scenarios, especially in the ecological land protection (ELP) and sustainable development scenarios. Furthermore, the ELP scenario effectively suppressed the expansion of building land and the erosion of ecological land. Ecosystem services under different scenarios showed similar spatial distribution patterns but presented varying degrees of change related to the impact of future land use and urban development on ecosystem services. The water yield (WY), carbon storage, and soil conservation in the upstream areas increased to varying degrees, while those in the downstream areas decreased. In conclusion, precipitation, land use/land cover change, DEM (Digital Elevation Model), and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) were the main driving factors affecting ecosystem services, with precipitation having the most significant and enduring impact on WY. This study supports the adoption of targeted spatial management measures to promote sustainable development and enhance human well-being.

Access denied: Land alienation and pastoral conflicts

Conflicts involving pastoralists have been on the rise in the past two decades in West, Central and East Africa. This article argues that land alienation is a major source of this type of violence. We employ a narrow identification strategy of relevant pastoral conflicts based on the Armed Conflict Location Event Dataset and create a unique indicator of land alienation comprised of three types of land use changes (conversion of land into conservation areas, crop farms, and industrial mining projects). Relying on a disaggregated quantitative comparative design of 50 km-by-50 km cells covering the Sahelian region from 2002 to 2019, we find that land alienation is an underlying cause of pastoral conflicts. Moreover, we show that the impact of land alienation on pastoralist violence spreads over long distances and is influenced by state presence and climatic conditions. Our analysis further reveals an overlap between pastoralist violence and armed conflict. Bridging a gap between macro- and micro-level studies, we contribute to shed more light on the determinants of pastoral conflicts, a type of violence that has received scant attention in the geospatial quantitative literature.

Construction of Cross-basin Ecological Security Patterns Based on Carbon Sinks and Landscape Connectivity

Artificial water system creation and land use changes have great effects on ecosystems. The construction of cross-basin ecological security patterns based on carbon sinks and landscape connectivity plays a key role in regional ecological environment protection. The linkage area between the Xiang River and the Li River was selected as the research object. Based on the land use data from 2000 to 2020, this study examined the ecological security network of the Xiang-Li connected region using the InVEST model combined with morphological spatial pattern analysis （MSPA） and evaluated the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon storage and ecological security patterns. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the land cover types of the Xiang-Li linkage area were mainly forest land and arable land. The changes of land use types were characterized by decreases in arable land, forest land, and grassland and by increases in watersheds and construction land. ② The carbon storage in the Xiang-Li linkage area was characterized by a blocky distribution, and the high and medium areas were dominant. The carbon stock increased slowly from 2000 to 2010 and decreased dramatically from 2010 to 2020, with a cumulative decrease of 18.32×103 t due to the influence of land use changes. ③ The area of ecological sources （five in total） decreased firstly and then increased, whereas the length of ecological corridors （ten in total） increased firstly and then decreased in the Xiang-Li linkage area. Overall, in the process of urbanization, the distribution of the high ecological resistance value in the Xiang-Li linkage area gradually shifted to the northeast with an expansion, whereas the barycenter of the ecological safety pattern shifted to the southwest. Determining the dynamic distribution and stability of ecological sources by coupling carbon storage patches and landscape patterns can provide a new way to construct ecological security patterns in cross-basin ecosystems.

Spatiotemporal Variation and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems at Multiple Development Stages in Beijing City Based on the Plus and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Models

Terrestrial ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle, and their carbon sequestration capacity is vital for mitigating the impacts of climate change. Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics significantly alter this capacity. This study scrutinizes the LULC evolution within the Beijing metropolitan region from 1992 to 2022, evaluating its implications for ecosystem carbon storage. It also employs the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate LULC patterns under four scenarios for 2035: an Uncontrolled Scenario (UCS), a Natural Evolution Scenario (NES), a Strict Control Scenario (SCS), and a Reforestation and Wetland Expansion Scenario (RWES). The InVEST model is concurrently used to assess and forecast ecosystem carbon storage under each scenario. Key insights from the study are as follows: (1) from 1992 to 2022, Beijing’s LULC exhibited a phased developmental trajectory, marked by an expansion of urban and forested areas at the expense of agricultural land; (2) concurrently, the region’s ecosystem carbon storage displayed a fluctuating trend, peaking initially before declining, with higher storage in the northwest and lower in the central urban zones; (3) by 2035, ecosystem carbon storage is projected to decrease by 1.41 Megatons under the UCS, decrease by 0.097 Megatons under the NES, increase by 1.70 Megatons under the SCS, and increase by 11.97 Megatons under the RWES; and (4) the study underscores the efficacy of policies curtailing construction land expansion in Beijing, advocating for sustained urban growth constraints and intensified afforestation initiatives. This research reveals significant changes in urban land use types and the mechanisms propelling these shifts, offering a scientific basis for comprehending LULC transformations in Beijing and their ramifications for ecosystem carbon storage. It further provides policymakers with substantial insights for the development of strategic environmental and urban planning initiatives.

Assessing the potential of species loss caused by deforestation in a mature subtropical broadleaf forest in central China

Deforestation is a major type of land use change to accommodate growing population, especially in developing countries. The risk of diversity loss due to habitat loss can be estimated using the species-area relationship based on abundance of each species. However, deforestation often occurs before there is any understanding of the impact of deforestation on tree diversity. Here, we assessed the potential effect of forest habitat destruction on the loss of species richness in a mature subtropical broadleaf forest in central China. We surveyed and constructed the species-area relationship for 54 400 m2 plots, and simulated habitat loss scenarios by randomly and aggregately sampling plots. Rank-abundance of the 21 tree species was best fitted by the Zipf-Mandelbrot model, and our sample size was sufficient by the criterion of Hill numbers at orders q = 0, 1, and 2. We found that the number of species lost due to habitat loss was well predicted by the random placement species loss-area loss curve, and was lower than that due to aggregated habitat destruction by less than one species. The probability of losing one species reached 40% when losing 16 plots by aggregated sampling, 10 plots fewer than that by random sampling. Moreover, the probability of losing two species was 10–22 % higher by aggregately sampling than that by randomly sampling when losing 17 – 34 plots (0.68 – 1.36 ha). Considering that aggregated deforestation is common in reality, the results imply that the number of tree species lost due to deforestation could be higher than the theoretical estimation. Our study suggests the importance of assessing the impact of deforestation on tree diversity before selective logging in subtropical forests.

Simplified Methodology for Assessing River Carrying Capacity Based on Land-Use Types

Land conversions or land use changes also become the main cause of the decline in Citarum River conditions. The relationship between river sustainability and its watershed carrying capacity plays a vital role in protecting watersheds to implement sustainable water resources management. Previous studies on river assessment for watershed management have predominantly focused on specific hydrological and/or technical results, rather than considering the process of the development of carrying capacity methodology due to land-use types. Motivated by this fact, the objective of this study is to develop a simplified carrying capacity methodology due to land-use types for sustainable river management by selecting the Upper Citarum Watershed (a main part of Citarum Watershed) located in West Java Province, Indonesia as an example of a study area. The conceptual framework development for watershed carrying capacity due to land-use types was designed the step-by-step methodology standard regarding the sustainable river management. The methodology of this study also used AHP method consisting of screening and selecting attributes, transforming and developing sub-indices, assigning weights, and formulating a runoff cumulative (Ccum) to examine standards and criteria for carrying capacity classification due to the changes of land-use types. The analysis revealed a significant change in the proportions of the various land use types of the study area. The conclusion is it integrates the measures of selected important land-use types to create a single dimensionless number of runoff cumulative and its classification, and a modified approach to communicate information on river status to the public and related policy makers. To advance future studies, it is necessary to develop a comprehensive evaluation and monitoring systems by using GIS-based spatial and temporal analysis.

Impacts of Forest Management‐Induced Productivity Changes on Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

AbstractAnthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under‐investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management‐induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management‐induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management‐induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (−7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (−0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management‐induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management‐induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections.

Changes in gross ecosystem product and its response to land use changes in forest resource dominant regions: A case study of Zixi County, Jiangxi Province, China.

Forests are one of the most important terrestrial ecosystems and play a crucial role in the construction of ecological civilization. Understanding the changes in gross ecosystem product (GEP) and its response to land use change in areas with unique advantages in forest resources is of great significance for promoting sustainable development. We examined the GEP of Zixi County of Jiangxi Province. Based on the theory and method of ecosystem value accounting, and on the basis of the general indicator system for regulating services (water source conservation, soil conservation, oxygen supply, carbon fixation, climate control, flood regulation, water purification, air cleaning, species conservation) and the general indicator system for cultural services (landscape recreation, education), we added negative oxygen ions and health care indicators and introduced forest ecosystem service correction coefficients to construct a GEP indicator system and method with unique advantages in forest resources. We evaluated the spatio-temporal variations of GEP in 2010, 2017 and 2020, and quantified the impact of land use/land cover change on GEP by means of elasticity index and value profit and loss analysis. The results showed that the GEP of Zixi County in 2010, 2017 and 2020 was 16.788 billion, 26.817 billion, and 38.407 billion yuan, respectively. Forests contri-buted the largest amount of GEP, followed by wetland, farmland, grassland, and town. During the study period, the added value of GEP mainly came from forest ecosystems. Land use change had an important impact on GEP. From 2010 to 2020, the total land use change area in the study area was 8501.88 hm2. The amplitude of land use change was grassland (-2811.17 hm2)>town (1428.06 hm2)>forest (1357.67 hm2)>wetland (1031.05 hm2)> farmland (-1005.01 hm2). The absolute changes of various land use types were mainly occurred from 2017 to 2020. The elasticity index of each indicator on forest ecosystems was significantly higher than that of other ecosystems, indicating that GEP had the highest sensitivity to changes in forest area. The results of value profit and loss analysis showed that urban development had reduced GEP to some extent, while the protection of forest and wetland had increased GEP. From 2010 to 2020, the conversion of land use types in Zixi County led to an increase of 1.865 billion yuan in GEP, indicating that land use change in Zixi County had a positive ecological impact on the whole. Our results reflect the green development effect of Zixi County after becoming a national ecological civilization construction demonstration county, which could provide decision-making support for high-quality development, high-level protection and sustainable development and utilization of land resources in the future, and provide reference for other similar areas of GEP accounting.

Interpretable machine learning guided by physical mechanisms reveals drivers of runoff under dynamic land use changes

Human activities continuously impact water balances and cycling in watersheds, making it essential to accurately identify the responses of runoff to dynamic changes in land use types. Although machine learning models demonstrate promise in capturing the intricate interplay between hydrological factors, their “black box” nature makes it challenging to identify the dynamic drivers of runoff. To overcome this challenge, we employed an interpretable machine learning method to inversely deduce the dynamic determinants within hydrological processes. In this study, we analyzed land use changes in the Ningxia section of the middle Yellow River across four periods, laying the foundation for revealing how these changes affect runoff. The sub-watershed attributes and meteorological characteristics generated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used as input variables of the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model to simulate substantial sub-watershed rainfall runoff in the region. The XGBoost was interpreted using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify the dynamic responses of runoff to the land use changes over different periods. The results revealed increasingly frequent interchanges between the land use types in the study area. The XGBoost effectively captured the characteristics of the hydrological processes in the SWAT-derived sub-watersheds. The SHAP analysis results demonstrated that the promoting effect of agricultural land (AGRL) on runoff gradually weakens, while forests (FRST) continuously strengthen their restraining effect on runoff. Relevant land use policies provide empirical support for these findings. Furthermore, the interaction between meteorological variables and land use impacts the runoff generation mechanism and exhibits a threshold effect, with the thresholds for relative humidity (RH), maximum temperature (MaxT), and minimum temperature (MinT) determined to be 0.8, 25 °C, and 15 °C, respectively. This reverse deduction method can reveal hydrological patterns and the mechanisms of interaction between variables, helping to effectively addressing constantly changing human activities and meteorological conditions.

Impacts of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on Water Yield Services in Heilongjiang Province

The Heilongjiang Province is the region in China with the highest grain production and the most significant ecological security barrier in the northern part of the country. In recent years, the growing necessity for water in human production and life has intensified water resource conflicts. In order to identify a solution to this situation, the InVEST model’s water yield module is employed to simulate the water yield in Heilongjiang Province in 2000, 2010, and 2020. The water yield in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2020 is evaluated, and the scenario simulation method is employed to investigate the impact of climate change and land use type changes on water yield. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the annual precipitation in Heilongjiang Province increased from 490 mm in 2000 to 764 mm in 2020. The spatial distribution shows a west–high and east–low pattern, with Jixi City having the highest average annual precipitation and the Greater Khingan region having the lowest. During the period of 2000–2020, woodland had the highest proportion, followed by arable land, while built-up land had the smallest proportion. The conversion of unused land and woodland represents the primary driver of the expansion in farmland areas, while the conversion of water bodies accounts for the majority of the growth in the area of unused land. The areas of woodland and water bodies exhibited a slight decrease. The order of water yield of land use types, from the greatest to the least, is as follows: built-up land, unused land, farmland, grassland, woodland, and water bodies. The main factor affecting changes in precipitation levels in the province is climate change, which contributed up to 99.58% during the period 2000–2020. In contrast, changes in land use types contributed a mere 0.42%. The sustained expansion of the urban population in Heilongjiang province has resulted in an augmented water yield in select regions.