Changes In Demographic Structure Research Articles

Sozialabbau im Namen der Generationengerechtigkeit?

During recent years a debate about violated justice between the generations has become a popular issue in the political discussion in almost all western societies. The often used label “generation justice” is used as a justification for a deconstruction of elements of social policy, especially in the fields of health insurance and public pensions. The main argument is due to a changing demographic structure, in which social systems are no longer able to guarantee high standard social services. This essay tries to critically asses the current debate about intergenerational justice and to focus at first on improved economic foundation for transfers between the different generations. In a second step it is asked, if generation justice is a relevant topic for young people in their ordinary lives. In a final third step the essay will try to give a solid answer to the demographic change, which can be the foundation for a new contract between younger and older people.

Institutional Change in OECD Democracies, 1970–2000

Four major institutional characteristics of advanced democracies have been scrutinized in this paper: the horizontal and vertical structure of the political system (majoritarian vs consensus democracy, federalism/decentralization vs unitary state/centralisation), the welfare state and the relationship between organized interests and the state (pluralism vs corporatism). This paper is concerned with the extent, direction and causes of changes in these four institutional arrangements in the period 1970–2000, in economically advanced and politically established democracies in the OECD world. My research reveals limited institutional change. Although there has been similar change, no convergence occurred. Rather, certain institutional options have become harder to realize, while others have become more feasible. I argue that three core variables can explain the characteristics of institutional characteristics at the end of the period under consideration. (1) The institutional order at t−1 is the major determinant of the institutional order at t. With few exceptions, change is path-dependent and incremental following a logic of ‘layering' of new and old elements. (2) Institutional change reflects changes in the international and domestic environment of the political systems, which could be perceived as ‘unavoidable and hard constraints' on political actors. Among them were various aspects of globalization, Europeanization and the changing demographic structure of modern societies. (3) These requirements for change have had a chance to lead to institutional reform if electorates or government members do not punish political actors for supporting such reforms. Hence the institutional change must be congruent with the socioeconomic requirements and with the attitudes of the public. All three variables restrict the options available in the four institutional structures.

Demographic structure, international lending and borrowing in growing interdependent economies

This paper examines how demographic structure affects international lending and borrowing in a two-country model of overlapping generations à la Blanchard and Weil and endogenous growth. It is shown that although growth rates are equalized between countries, international asset positions in the long run are not. They are determined by the countries' demographic structures. A country with high (low) birth and death rates becomes a debtor (creditor) country. We also examine the effect of a change in demographic structure on the growth rate. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (1) (2005) 135–162.

The relationship between reproductive success and demographic structure in remnant populations of Primula veris

Abstract Plants often suffer reductions in fecundity due to fragmentation, degradation and destruction of populations and their sites. Whether this decrease in seed production has population-level consequences is generally unknown. Here, we aimed to determine the current status of remnant populations in the perennial herb Primula veris in Belgium. Furthermore, we investigated the effects of reduced population size and morph bias on reproductive success and explored if changes in demographic structure could be associated with population fecundity. We studied 69 populations that differed in population size from three to nearly 1500 flowering plants. Three different population types could be distinguished: (a) “dynamic” populations, characterized by high densities of 1 year old juveniles, (b) “normal” populations with adult age-stages prevailing, but still a considerable number of juveniles, and (c) “regressive” populations, in which only flowering adults dominate and rejuvenation hardly occurs. The three population types differed with respect to population size and morph frequency. Dynamic populations were significantly larger and showed a weaker morph bias compared to the intermediate normal and the small regressive populations. Reproductive success, studied the previous year in 26 populations, decreased significantly with decreasing population size and was significantly associated with the demographic structure of the populations. Coefficients of variation for the proportion of flowers setting fruit, the number of seeds per fruit and the total number of seeds per plant decreased significantly with increasing population size. Hence, the observed variability in seed set may be one of the causal factors affecting the observed types of population demographic structure.

Reintroducing Intergenerational Equilibrium: Key Concepts behind the New Polish Pension System

The paper discusses conceptual background of the pension system from the viewpoint of its long-term objective, which is to ensure intergenerational equilibrium irrespective of the demographic situation. This requires stabilisation of the share of GDP allocated to the entire retired generation. Traditional pension systems aim, instead, at stabilisation of the share of GDP per retiree. The change in demographic structure observed over the past for a couple of decades and this historic attempt to stabilise the share of GDP per retiree led to severe fiscal problems and negative externalities for growth, as observed in numerous countries. Many countries have tried to reform their pension systems in different ways to try to resolve the issue of these ever-increasing costs. Poland adopted a new pension system in 1999. This new pension system allows Poland to reduce pension expenditure (as a percent of GDP), instead of increasing it - as is projected for the majority of other OECD countries. Although the Polish reform uses a number of techniques applied elsewhere, its design differs from the typical approaches - and the lessons and results are promising for all OECD countries. This paper presents the theoretical and practical application of this alternative approach and as such, the key features of the new Polish pension system design.

12 Million Salaried Workers are Missing

Evidence from Current Population Surveys, various cohorts of the National Longitudinal Surveys, and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics suggests that the fraction of American employees who were paid salaries held constant from the late 1960s through the late 1970s, and continued to hold constant or perhaps fell slightly thereafter through the late 1990s. An analysis that accounts for the changing industrial, occupational, demographic, and economic structure of the work force shows that this fraction was 9 percentage points below what would have been expected in the late 1970s. This shortfall is not explained by growth in the temporary help industry, declining unionization, institutional changes in overtime or wage payment regulation, the increasing openness of American labor and product markets, or convergence of nonwage aspects of hourly and salaried employment. The author suggests several alternative explanations.

12 Million Salaried Workers Are Missing

Evidence from Current Population Surveys through 1997, various cohorts of the National Longitudinal Surveys, and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics suggests that the fraction of American employees paid salaries stayed constant from the late 1960s through the late 1970s, but fell slightly thereafter through the late 1990s. Accounting for the changing industrial, occupational, demographic and economic structure of the work force shows that the fraction was 9 percentage points below what would have been expected in the late 1970s. This shortfall is not explained by growth in the temporary help industry, by institutional changes in overtime or wage payment regulation, by the increasing openness of American labor and product markets, nor by convergence of nonwage aspects of hourly and salaried employment. A theory of worker commitment and employers' monitoring costs explains the determination of pay status. While monitoring costs may have changed consistent with the decline in salaried work, only declining worker commitment is also consistent with an observed relative decline in earnings of hourly workers. Various waves of the General Social Surveys provide direct evidence that workers' commitment/trustworthiness declined during this period. Data from several cohorts of men in the NLS imply that there was a detrimental change in the work attitudes of young men in the lower half of the distribution of early-career job satisfaction, a conclusion that is bolstered by the relative decline in job tenure among hourly-paid workers.

Reproductive consequences of variation in the composition of howler monkey ( Alouatta spp.) groups

At least three general categories of environmental pressure – predation, resource distribution, and demographics – shape the costs and benefits of group-living for animals. Among the demographic factors that influence individual survival and reproduction, the composition of social groups can play an important role. Census data drawn from 26 populations of howler monkeys (Alouatta spp.) were used to determine if the composition of groups explained variation in their reproductive performance. Each group's reproductive performance was estimated by calculating the difference between the observed number of immatures and the number expected from its population average. Of four group structure variables tested, only one – the residual of the adult and subadult sex ratio – was a consistent correlate of reproductive performance across the howler monkey populations. Groups with a greater proportion of adult and subadult males contained more juveniles than expected from the population average. I propose that the survival or retention of immatures within howler monkey groups depends in part on the behavior of resident males. Of particular importance, the relative proportions of resident males and females were more informative than the absolute number of males or females. On this basis, I evaluate the possible role of males in protection from predation, conspecific aggression, and resource competition. The techniques used here can also be used to forecast major changes in demographic structure within populations.

Settlement and population

This article deals with the problem of inhabitants and the development of settlement in the area of the former military area Ralsko. Because of this fact some statistical sources were hard to find and some were not possible to find at all. The article summarizes the development of this space from the historical point of view (the influence of the establishment and closure of the military area on the changes in demographic structure and the present situation of the communities).

Settlement and population

This article deals with the problem of inhabitants and the development of settlement in the area of the former military area Ralsko. Because of this fact some statistical sources were hard to find and some were not possible to find at all. The article summarizes the development of this space from the historical point of view - the influence of the establishment and closure of the military area on the changes in demographic structure and the present situation of the communities.

Percutaneous Transluminal Coronary Angioplasty or Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting for Coronary Artery Disease?

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in the Western world. Despite advances in diagnosis and management, mortality remains high. It is also a significant source of human suffering and a leading consumer of healthcare resources. Established risk factors are common in Western society and, with progressing change in demographic structure and an increasing proportion of the population reaching more advanced age, the prevalence for cardiovascular disease will most likely remain high.

Achieving Harmony from Tension: Contemporary Patterns and Pitfalls of Family Advocacy

ABSTRACT Advocacy in illness and aging is a formidable challenge. Physical illness, financial dependence or constraint, social-emotional problems, and the changing political and demographic structure of caregiving force severe demands on intervention programs and possibilities. This paper provides an uncommon but, hopefully, reasonable framework for freeing clinicians, educators, and helping professionals from their own ideas which periodically are rendered problematic in providing successful intervention. Several illustrations of these practical problems are presented. Finally some postures for advocacy and intervention are considered.

ABC of Rheumatology: OSTEOPOROSIS

Osteoporosis causes considerable morbidity and mortality, and there is evidence that the burden of this condition is increasing out of proportion to the changing demographic structure of populations in Western countries. Osteoporosis may be defined as a disorder resulting from the combination of low bone mass (osteopenia) and low trauma fractures. Typical sites of osteoporotic fracture are the vertebral body, distal forearm, and proximal femur. It is now possible to accurately determine individuals' risk of osteoporosis and to monitor their response to treatment by means of bone densitometry. Many cases of osteoporosis are preventable, and treatments are effective in reducing the number of further fractures in patients with established disease. Typical sites of osteoporotic fracture. The human skeleton is composed of about 20% trabecular bone and 80% cortical bone. Bone undergoes a continual process of resorption and formation in discrete bone remodelling units. About 10% of the adult skeleton is remodelled each year. This turnover prevents fatigue damage and is important in maintaining calcium homoeostasis. Bone loss results from an imbalance between the rates of resorption and formation. Trabecular bone is more metabolically active, and osteoporotic fractures tend to occur at sites composed of more than 50% trabecular bone. False colour, scanning electron micrographs of normal trabecular bone (left) and trabecular bone affected by osteoporosis (right). Bone loss leads to thinning, and in some cases perforation, of the trabecular plates. Trabecular perforation occurs in situations of increased bone turnover, and the resulting loss of normal architecture leads to a disproportionate loss of strength for the amount of bone lost. Association between age and …

Families in Thailand: Beliefs and Realities

The main objective of this paper is to analyze families in Thailand in light of the country’s dominant religion, Buddhism. The analysis is based mainly on a review of the literature and research findings on family and religion documented previously. The focus is on changes in demographic structure and fertility behavior in relation to changes in household structure and size. Certain aspects of families are investigated, including the family system, the family life cycle, marriage and divorce, women in labor force, and the elderly. Buddhism, which has flourished in Thailand since the thirteenth century, has borne a strong influence in Thai society. Buddhism, as interpreted in terms of cultural expressions, has long been associated with the Thai way of life, attitudes, and codes of behavior of individuals at both societal and family levels. Moreover, in the past Buddhism played a very significant role in a person’s life from childhood to old age. However, during the past 2-3 decades Thailand has undergone rapid socioeconomic change toward more modernization and a greater degree of urbanization, and certain social values and behaviors which used to be closely related to religious interpretation are observed to undergo some changes as well in both the family and society in general. This may be an indication of a widening gap between beliefs and realities in modern Thailand.

New trends in Media Research

Profound changes have become apparent in the media landscape since the 1980s, both nationally and internationally, one obvious outcome of which has been the enormous influence they have on research. The author first describes current developments in the media landscape before discussing research trends and changes in research methodology. The technological revolution now underway is described, which can be expected to change media user habits. This, as well as other factors such as deregulation and changes in demographic structures, places great demands on media research. Problems arising from past and present methods of measuring quantitative and qualitative TV and radio consumption are listed, and compared and contrasted with research in the print media. In conclusion, the author examines the single source approach which can deliver highly relevant data for marketing purposes, although there are still some problems associated with it, which means that, for today's requirements, the compromise solution of data fusion provides better results.

Understanding Needs and Concerns of the Elderly Regarding Medicare Health Maintenance Organizations

beneficiaries, who currently receive health care under a fee-for-service system, present new challenges and opportunities for Medicare-HMOs. Part of the challenge lies in discerning major need dimensions underlying the elderly's choice between standard and a Medicare-HMO. Although Medicare-HMOs have special features likely to be particularly beneficial to the elderly, they are not greeted without some disquietude. The paper focuses on identifying the major need dimensions and concerns of the elderly in choosing a Medicare-HMO over the traditional fee-for-service system. Today's health care business environment requires that planners and management decision makers fully understand and effectively respond to the significant changes occurring in the health care markets. One of the most widely recognized and pervasive of these changes is the aging of the population. There is a growing concern in the nation regarding meeting the future health care needs created by an aging population. The elderly population, defined as those who are 65 years of age and over (Gilly and Zeithaml 1985; Roedder-John and Cole 1986), is growing twice as fast as the general population and is projected to account for over 21 percent of the U.S. population by the year 2030 (Lumpkin and Hunt 1989). Currently, an estimated 29 percent of the U.S. health care expenditures are devoted to the elderly. The program, the U.S.'s largest single health insurance program, serves over 30 million elderly and disabled citizens. Spotts and Schewe, for example, pointed out that Medicare payments have continued to increase as part of the elderly's total health care expenditures and now constitute the source of 45 percent of the total payments for persons over 65. Hospital costs account for nearly half (45.2 percent) of health care expenses per person (1989, 36). With the changing demographic structure of the population and the burgeoning cost of health care for the elderly, health care planners have begun to take a closer look at alternative delivery systems such as health care maintenance organizations (HMOs). HMOs offer a comprehensive package of health care benefits for a fixed premium and usually feature some limitations on consumers' choice of providers. In addition, providers of care are usually placed at some economic risk, and thus, face incentives to reduce unnecessary services. The U.S. government has nurtured the development of HMOs through the initial provision of grants and loans and the passage of a law that compelled most employers to include HMOs (if available) among the health care options offered to employees. HMOs integrate several cost containment measures such as utilization review, pre-admission authorization, outpatient surgery, and preventive care under one institutional entity. The presence of HMOs as a significant force in the market place has been expected to stimulate competition among health care providers and exert a restraining influence on overall health care premiums. Empirical evidence points to the success of HMOs in reducing costs of in-patient care, especially through lowering hospitalization rates (GHAA 1990; Luft 1981; Manning, Leibowitz, Goldberg et al. 1984; Schlesinger 1985). With growing support from employers, labor unions, and the federal government, enrollments in HMOs increased at an accelerating pace among the general employed population. In 1980, for example, HMOs enrolled 9.1 million persons with a market penetration of 4.0 percent. In comparison, HMO enrollments in 1990 were estimated at 33.1 million, and HMO market penetration was 13.3 percent (Interstudy Edge 1980, 1990). MEDICARE HMOs The passage of the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA) of 1982 (Section 114) enabled the development of risk-based prospective payment health plans for the elderly, commonly referred to as Medicare-HMOs (Iglehart 1985). …

Costs and Benefits of Hiring Older Workers: A Case Study of B&Q

Charts the success of an experiment by B&Q, the large DIY chainstore, in opening a store, staffed entirely by older workers. The subsequent success of this proactive response to the changing demographic structure has proved to managers and public alike, that older workers are a valuable part of the UK labour market.

Demographic changes in the '90s in Western Europe: Opportunities and risks for industry

Abstract There will be considerable changes in the demographic structure of Western Europe as early as the '90s. Nearly all countries will be affected in a similar way but the major impact will fall on West Germany, The Netherlands and Switzerland. These changes will exert considerable influence on the market for consumer goods. As illustrated by the automobile market, it can be seen that manufacturers must now start with their preparations to cater for the special buying habits of the growing senior market but that there are significant differences in their basic positions. The labour market will also react violently to these demographic changes. Branches of industry which in the main employ young people with low wage levels will have to consider a new approach. New ideas and methods must be applied to ensure that the participation of the older section of the population in working life is organised in a socially compatible way. The changes in demographic structure will in their entirety bring about such far-reaching changes that they will become a central topic of public discussion and therefore also gain considerable political significance.

Migration, Remittances, and the Family

Remittances by migrants along with migration itself are elements in a migrant familys intertemporal contractual arrangement. The reasons why the migrant and his family voluntarily enter into a mutually beneficial contractual arrangement with each other rather than with a 3rd party--are discussed and the conditions under which the contractual arrangement is self-enforcing are identified. Both parties can usually benefit from a number of Pareto-efficient mutual contractual arrangements. This gives rise to an indeterminacy problem solved through a bargaining process between the parties who consequently converge to a contractual arrangement implying a specific flow of migrant-to-family remittances. The chosen contractual arrangement reflects the relative bargaining powers of the parties and variables impinging upon these powers thus bear upon remittances. In the light of these arguments tests are conducted on observed remittance behavior across individual migrants in Botswana. (authors)

Women's employment and changes in family structure.

This article examines the impact on women's employment of the changing demographic structure of the family. Using log linear techniques and data from the 1960 and 1970 censuses, our findings modify earlier research and have implications for the future. Key findings include a decline in the effect of marital status on women's employment; no decline in the effect of child status; a more complicated relationship between race and employment status than previously realized; and clear evidence that rates are increasing not only because of changes in family structure, but because of changes in the employment patterns of successive cohorts of women.