Changes In Aridity Research Articles

Late Quaternary micromammals and the precipitation history of the southern Cape, South Africa

AbstractThe southern Cape of South Africa is important to understanding regional climate because it straddles the transition between the winter and summer rainfall zones. We examine late Quaternary changes in rainfall seasonality and aridity through analysis of micromammal assemblages from three sites: Boomplaas Cave and Nelson Bay Cave in the aseasonal rainfall zone and Byneskranskop 1 in the winter rainfall zone. Our interpretation is based on analysis of 123 modern micromammal assemblages accumulated by barn owls (Tyto alba), which empirically links species composition to climate. The Pleistocene record (∼65 to 12 ka) from Boomplaas Cave, together with the last glacial maximum (LGM) samples from Nelson Bay Cave, indicates enhanced winter rainfall, especially during the LGM. Boomplaas Cave documents progressive aridification from the LGM to the earliest Holocene, followed by a return to moderately humid conditions through the Holocene. Byneskranskop 1 indicates a dominance of winter rains over the last 17 ka and a shift from an arid middle Holocene to a humid later Holocene. Agreement between the micromammal record and other local and regional proxies reinforces the potential of southern African micromammal assemblages as paleoclimate indicators.

A simple tool for refining GCM water availability projections, applied to Chinese catchments

Abstract. There is a growing desire for reliable 21st-century projections of water availability at the regional scale. Global climate models (GCMs) are typically used together with global hydrological models (GHMs) to generate such projections. GCMs alone are unsuitable, especially if they have biased representations of aridity. The Budyko framework represents how water availability varies as a non-linear function of aridity and is used here to constrain projections of runoff from GCMs, without the need for computationally expensive GHMs. Considering a Chinese case study, we first apply the framework to observations to show that the contribution of direct human impacts (water consumption) to the significant decline in Yellow River runoff was greater than the contribution of aridity change by a factor of approximately 2, although we are unable to rule out a significant contribution from the net effect of all other factors. We then show that the Budyko framework can be used to narrow the range of Yellow River runoff projections by 34 %, using a multi-model ensemble and the high-end Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. This increases confidence that the Yellow River will see an increase in runoff due to aridity change by the end of the 21st century. Yangtze River runoff projections change little, since aridity biases in GCMs are less substantial. Our approach serves as a quick and inexpensive tool to rapidly update and correct projections from GCMs alone. This could serve as a valuable resource when determining the water management policies required to alleviate water stress for future generations.

Drivers, timing and some impacts of global aridity change

The modeled robustness of the aridity response to climate change has already been well established: global drylands are expanding as increases in potential evapotranspiration outpace precipitation increases. This work considers three questions not previously addressed: (1) in which aridity zones are aridity trends expected to first emerge? (2) To what extent are future populations expected to experience changes in aridity? (3) For which locations and populations is aridity change determined by changes in precipitation versus temperature? Using a multi-model ensemble of general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 archives, together with population statistics from United Nations databases we find the following: (1) drier regions are projected to dry earlier, more severely and to a greater extent than humid regions. (2) By the end of the century, up to 700 million more people are projected to live in arid regions, with half of humankind living in regions experiencing drying of at least 5% and 3 billion experiencing 25% drying under a high emissions scenario. The largest populations to experience extreme drying are in Africa and Asia. According to GCMs, aridity increases have already begun to emerge in Northern Africa. Populations in sub-Saharan Africa appear to be the most vulnerable considering current water scarcity levels there. And (3) precipitation change is projected to drive the most severe drying in arid regions, contributing to the earliest emerging signals of aridity change and driving the differential drying across aridity zones. A comparison of aridity data derived from observations with model ensemble data suggests that increased aridity is already emerging in the driest regions. In sum, widespread aridity trends across a warming state imply that most of humanity will live in a more arid world.

Influences of the Internal Mixing of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Global Aridity Change

Influences of the mixing treatments of anthropogenic aerosols on their effective radiative forcing (ERF) and global aridity are evaluated by using the BCC_AGCM2.0_CUACE/Aero, an aerosol–climate online coupled model. Simulations show that the negative ERF due to external mixing (EM, a scheme in which all aerosol particles are treated as independent spheres formed by single substance) aerosols is largely reduced by the partial internal mixing (PIM, a scheme in which some of the aerosol particles are formed by one absorptive and one scattering substance) method. Compared to EM, PIM aerosols have much stronger absorptive ability and generally weaker hygroscopicity, which would lead to changes in radiative forcing, hence to climate. For the global mean values, the ERFs due to anthropogenic aerosols since the pre-industrial are–1.02 and–1.68 W m–2 for PIM and EM schemes, respectively. The variables related to aridity such as global mean temperature, net radiation flux at the surface, and the potential evaporation capacity are all decreased by 2.18/1.61 K, 5.06/3.90 W m–2, and 0.21/0.14 mm day–1 since 1850 for EM and PIM schemes, respectively. According to the changes in aridity index, the anthropogenic aerosols have caused general humidification over central Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia, but great aridification over eastern China and the Tibetan Plateau since the pre-industrial in both mixing schemes. However, the aridification is considerably alleviated in China, but intensified in the Arabian Peninsula and East Africa in the PIM scheme.

Changes in aridity and its driving factors in China during 1961–2016

Understanding the changes in aridity is crucial because of the substantial impacts it can have on human society. However, realistic aridity changes and their underlying climatic mechanisms demonstrate large uncertainties in China. Here we adopted the aridity index (AI) to assess the aridity changes in China, and we quantified the relative contributions of various climatic drivers (the precipitation, net radiation, wind speed, relative humidity, and air temperature) to AI changes based on the station data during 1961–2016. Our results showed that the arid/semi‐arid northwest China and Tibet Plateau experienced wetting trends, while western sub‐humid north and northeast China and western humid south China exhibited drying trends during 1961–2016. The dominant climatic drivers involved in the changing AI trends changed from arid to humid regions. In arid northwest China, increasing precipitation and decreasing wind speeds contributed the most to the wetting trends (0.024 and 0.017 in 56 years, respectively). In the semi‐arid Tibet Plateau, increasing precipitation dominated the wetting trends (0.045 in 56 years). However, in sub‐humid/humid north and northeast China and south China, decreasing wind speed and net radiation dominated the annual AI changes (0.061 and 0.092 in 56 years, respectively). In addition, AI of northwest China and the Tibet Plateau exhibited a significant abrupt change in 1987 and exhibited wetter states afterwards, which could be caused by the abrupt increase in precipitation in 1987. This study could improve current understanding of the aridity changes in China and help adapt its potential impacts.

Disconnection Between Trends of Atmospheric Drying and Continental Runoff

AbstractThe ratio of potential evapotranspiration (E0) over precipitation (P), known as the aridity index (AI), has been commonly used to stratify global aridity zones and widely adopted to assess changes in aridity globally. Anthropogenic climate change, in particular atmospheric warming, is projected to increase AI, which has in most cases been interpreted as increasing terrestrial aridity. In this study we demonstrate, for both past and future conditions, that such an interpretation requires reconsideration. Using catchment observations over the past 30 years and climate model projections for the 21st century, we show that increased AI does not ubiquitously lead to a decreased water availability over land, using surface runoff (Q) as an indicator. This is primarily caused by a higher Q sensitivity to changes in P (SP) and a lower Q sensitivity to changes in E0 (SE0), with the ratio of SP over SE0 being higher than the relative changes of E0 compared to P (i.e., |P × SP| > |E0 × SE0|). Assessment of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model outputs indicates that both Q and AI change‐induced Q changes are increasing over the majority of the globe for the 21st century despite increasing AI (a drying atmosphere). Our findings demonstrate a disconnection between the atmospheric drying trends and surface runoff trends and call for caution when interpreting retrospective and future changes in terrestrial aridity based on AI and related measures.

On observed aridity changes over the semiarid regions of India in a warming climate

In this study, a quantitative assessment of observed aridity variations over the semiarid regions of India is performed for the period 1951–2005 using a dimensionless ratio of annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), estimated from five different observed gridded precipitation data sets. The climatological values and changes of this aridity index are found to be sensitive to the choice of the precipitation observations. An assessment of P/PET estimated using the ensemble mean precipitation shows an increase in aridity over several semiarid regions of India, despite the sensitivity of P/PET variations across individual precipitation data sets. Our results indicate that precipitation variations over the semiarid regions of India are outpacing the changes in potential evapotranspiration and, thereby, influencing aridity changes in a significant manner. Our results further reveal a 10% expansion in the area of the semiarid regions during recent decades relative to previous decades, thus highlighting the need for better adaptation strategies and mitigation planning for the semiarid regions in India. The sensitivity of aridity index to multiple PET data sets can be an additional source of uncertainty and will be addressed in a future study.

Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here, we apply a recently developed methodology that circumvents the GCM limitation of coarse resolution in order to project future changes in aridity on small islands. These climate projections are combined with independent population projections associated with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially toward the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. For several SIDS, particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction (~ 25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2 °C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2 °C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.

Whither the 100th Meridian? The Once and Future Physical and Human Geography of America’s Arid–Humid Divide. Part II: The Meridian Moves East

Abstract The 100th meridian bisects the Great Plains of the United States and effectively divides the continent into more arid western and less arid eastern halves and is well expressed in terms of vegetation, land hydrology, crops, and the farm economy. Here, it is considered how this arid–humid divide will change in intensity and location during the current century under rising greenhouse gases. It is first shown that state-of-the-art climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project generally underestimate the degree of aridity of the United States and simulate an arid–humid divide that is too diffuse. These biases are traced to excessive precipitation and evapotranspiration and inadequate blocking of eastward moisture flux by the Pacific coastal ranges and Rockies. Bias-corrected future projections are developed that modify observationally based measures of aridity by the model-projected fractional changes in aridity. Aridity increases across the United States, and the aridity gradient weakens. The main contributor to the changes is rising potential evapotranspiration, while changes in precipitation working alone increase aridity across the southern and decrease across the northern United States. The “effective 100th meridian” moves to the east as the century progresses. In the current farm economy, farm size and percent of county under rangelands increase and percent of cropland under corn decreases as aridity increases. Statistical relations between these quantities and the bias-corrected aridity projections suggest that, all else being equal (which it will not be), adjustment to changing environmental conditions would cause farm size and rangeland area to increase across the plains and percent of cropland under corn to decrease in the northern plains as the century advances.

Relating historical vegetation cover to aridity patterns in the greater desert region of northern China: Implications to planned and existing restoration projects

Desert regions of northern China have often been reported with climate change signals. Thus, assessments of dryness in space and time have become critical for the development of climate change. Earlier studies have identified long-term patterns of dryness in northern China, but they have usually been of limited value to land-management planning as they ignored local-to-regional-scale climate features. To identify cause-and-effect relationship between aridity and vegetation cover, changes in aridity and vegetation cover were tracked with the assistance of a chronological series of surfaces based on the mapping of aridity and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and convergent cross mapping. By tracking regional-scale variation in precipitation, air temperature, aridity from 1961 to 2013 (53 years), and vegetation cover dynamics from 1982 to 2013 (32 years), we show that precipitation increased in approximately 70% of the greater desert region, including in the Ulanbuh, Tengger, Badain Jaran, Qaidam, Kumtag, Gurbantunggut, and Taklimakan Deserts. This increase was statistically strongest for the Gurbantunggut and Taklimakan Deserts. Our results indicate that air temperature rose in nearly all deserts in northern China at about 2.5 times greater than the global rate. NDVI largely increased in oases of the western desert region and the Mu Us Desert over the 1982–2013. For the most parts, aridity had a moderate control on NDVI, with no indication of vegetation feedback at an 8-km resolution. The wetting trend observed in the western desert regions (increasing aridity index, i.e., AI) coincided with an increase in NDVI; most regional increases in NDVI ranged between 0 and 0.0005 yr−1. In contrast, continued drying in the eastern desert regions (decreasing AI) was mostly associated with a decline in NDVI <0.0005 yr−1. Knowledge regarding drying and wetting trends regionally is critical for the proper planning and management of land resources. In order to avoid the excessive re-vegetation, pattern changes in drying/wetting should be taken into account in balancing re-vegetation projects with the domestic needs for water in vulnerable desert environments.

Why does freshwater fish species richness differ between Pacific and Atlantic drainages of the Americas?

AbstractAimTo identify the contributions of geomorphological and hydrological/climatic factors to differences in total and endemic freshwater fish species richness between Atlantic and Pacific drainages.LocationGlaciated and unglaciated catchments draining to the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in North (NA) and South America (SA).TaxonFish.MethodsA database of native freshwater fish species richnesses in drainage basins was compiled from published information, and the contributions of temperature, rainfall, catchment area, river length, channel gradient, discharge and geographic location in accounting for variation in total and endemic species richness were assessed using boosted regression trees.ResultsAtlantic drainages have larger catchments, with longer rivers, lower channel gradients, greater discharges and lower flow variability than Pacific ones of the same size. Unglaciated Atlantic drainages in bothNAandSAhave more species than Pacific drainages, but glaciated PacificNAhad significantly more species than the other Pacific areas. Geographic location had the greatest influence on total richness, but catchment area, river length and temperature were more important for endemic species. Pacific drainages had proportionally more endemics than Atlantic drainages.Main conclusionsTectonically driven topographic change, by altering relief, affects catchment size, slopes and connectivity, with the latter also affected by climatic changes in ice cover and aridity. These geomorphic and long‐term climatic changes, by influencing speciation, extinction and dispersal, govern freshwater fish species richness in Atlantic and Pacific catchments.

A stable isotope record of late Cenozoic surface uplift of southern Alaska

Although the timing of an acceleration in late-Cenozoic exhumation of southern Alaska is reasonably well constrained as beginning ∼5–∼6 Ma, the surface uplift history of this region remains poorly understood. To assess the extent of surface uplift relative to rapid exhumation, we developed a stable isotope record using the hydrogen isotope composition (δD) of paleo-meteoric water over the last ∼7 Ma from interior basins of Alaska and Yukon Territory. Our record, which is derived from authigenic clays (δDclay) in silicic tephras, documents a ∼50–60‰ increase in δD values from the late Miocene (∼6–∼7 Ma) through the Plio-Pleistocene transition (∼2–∼3 Ma), followed by near-constant values over at least the last ∼2 Ma. Although this enrichment trend is opposite that of a Rayleigh distillation model typically associated with surface uplift, we suggest that it is consistent with indirect effects of surface uplift on interior Alaska, including changes in aridity, moisture source, and seasonality of moisture. We conclude that the δDclay record documents the creation of a topographic barrier and the associated changes to the climate of interior Alaska and Yukon Territory.

Impacts of Projected Climate Warming and Wetting on Soil Microbial Communities in Alpine Grassland Ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau.

Climate change is projected to have impacts on precipitation and temperature regimes in drylands of high elevation regions, with especially large effects in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. However, there was limited information about how the projected climate change will impact on the soil microbial community and their activity in the region. Here, we present results from a study conducted across 72 soil samples from 24 different sites along a temperature and precipitation gradient (substituted by aridity index ranging from 0.079 to 0.89) of the Plateau, to assess how changes in aridity affect the abundance, community composition, and diversity of bacteria, ammonia-oxidizers, and denitrifers (nirK/S and nosZ genes-containing communities) as well as nitrogen (N) turnover enzyme activities. We found V-shaped or inverted V-shaped relationships between the aridity index (AI) and soil microbial parameters (gene abundance, community structures, microbial diversity, and N turnover enzyme activities) with a threshold at AI=0.27. The increasing or decreasing rates of the microbial parameters were higher in areas with AI<0.27 (alpine steppes) than in mesic areas with 0.27<AI<0.89 (alpine meadow and swamp meadow). The results indicated that the projected warming and wetting have a strong impact on soil microbial communities in the alpine steppes.

Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO2

Aridity is generally defined as the ‘degree to which a climate lacks moisture to sustain life in terrestrial ecosystems’. Several recent studies using the ‘aridity index’ (the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation), have concluded that aridity will increase with CO2 because of increasing temperature. However, the ‘aridity index’ is—counterintuitively—not a direct measure of aridity per se (when defined as above) and there is widespread evidence that contradicts the ‘warmer is more arid’ interpretation. We provide here an assessment of multi-model changes in a broad set of aridity metrics over a large range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from conditions at the last glacial maximum to 4xCO2, using an ensemble of simulations from state-of-the-art Earth system models. Most measures of aridity do not show increasing aridity on global scales under conditions of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and related global warming, although we note some varying responses depending on the considered variables. The response is, furthermore, more nuanced at regional scales, but in the majority of regions aridity does not increase with CO2 in the majority of metrics. Our results emphasize that it is not the climate models that project overwhelming increases of aridity with increasing CO2, but rather a secondary, offline, impact model—the ‘aridity index’—that uses climate model output as input.

A Global Assessment of Runoff Sensitivity to Changes in Precipitation, Potential Evaporation, and Other Factors

AbstractPrecipitation (P) and potential evaporation (Ep) are commonly studied drivers of changing freshwater availability, as aridity (Ep/P) explains ∼90% of the spatial differences in mean runoff across the globe. However, it is unclear if changes in aridity over time are also the most important cause for temporal changes in mean runoff and how this degree of importance varies regionally. We show that previous global assessments that address these questions do not properly account for changes due to precipitation, and thereby strongly underestimate the effects of precipitation on runoff. To resolve this shortcoming, we provide an improved Budyko‐based global assessment of the relative and absolute sensitivity of precipitation, potential evaporation, and other factors to changes in mean‐annual runoff. The absolute elasticity of runoff to potential evaporation changes is always lower than the elasticity to precipitation changes. The global pattern indicates that for 83% of the land grid cells runoff is most sensitive to precipitation changes, while other factors dominate for the remaining 17%. This dominant role of precipitation contradicts previous global assessments, which considered the impacts of aridity changes as a ratio. We highlight that dryland regions generally display high absolute sensitivities of runoff to changes in precipitation, however within dryland regions the relative sensitivity of runoff to changes in other factors (e.g., changing climatic variability, CO2‐vegetation feedbacks, and anthropogenic modifications to the landscape) is often far higher. Nonetheless, at the global scale, surface water resources are most sensitive to temporal changes in precipitation.

Abrupt climate changes during Termination III in Southern Europe

The Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial transitions represent the highest amplitude climate changes over the last million years. Unraveling the sequence of events and feedbacks at Termination III (T-III), including potential abrupt climate reversals similar to those of the last Termination, has been particularly challenging due to the scarcity of well-dated records worldwide. Here, we present speleothem data from southern Europe covering the interval from 262.7 to 217.9 kyBP, including the transition from marine isotope stage (MIS) 8 to MIS 7e. High-resolution δ13C, δ18O, and Mg/Ca profiles reveal major millennial-scale changes in aridity manifested in changing water availability and vegetation productivity. uranium-thorium dates provide a solid chronology for two millennial-scale events (S8.1 and S8.2) which, compared with the last two terminations, has some common features with Heinrich 1 and Heinrich 2 in Termination I (T-I).

Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges

AbstractDrylands are home to more than 38% of the world's population and are one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and human activities. This review describes recent progress in dryland climate change research. Recent findings indicate that the long‐term trend of the aridity index (AI) is mainly attributable to increased greenhouse gas emissions, while anthropogenic aerosols exert small effects but alter its attributions. Atmosphere‐land interactions determine the intensity of regional response. The largest warming during the last 100 years was observed over drylands and accounted for more than half of the continental warming. The global pattern and interdecadal variability of aridity changes are modulated by oceanic oscillations. The different phases of those oceanic oscillations induce significant changes in land‐sea and north‐south thermal contrasts, which affect the intensity of the westerlies and planetary waves and the blocking frequency, thereby altering global changes in temperature and precipitation. During 1948–2008, the drylands in the Americas became wetter due to enhanced westerlies, whereas the drylands in the Eastern Hemisphere became drier because of the weakened East Asian summer monsoon. Drylands as defined by the AI have expanded over the last 60 years and are projected to expand in the 21st century. The largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semiarid regions since the early 1960s. Dryland expansion will lead to reduced carbon sequestration and enhanced regional warming. The increasing aridity, enhanced warming, and rapidly growing population will exacerbate the risk of land degradation and desertification in the near future in developing countries.

Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901–2005) simulations and future (2006–2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006–2025, 2026–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

Competing influences of anthropogenic warming, ENSO, and plant physiology on future terrestrial aridity.

The 2011-2016 Californian drought illustrates that drought-prone areas do not always experience relief once a favorable phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returns. In the 21st century, such an expectation is unrealistic in regions where global warming induces an increase in terrestrial aridity larger than the aridity changes driven by ENSO variability. This premise is also flawed in areas where precipitation supply cannot offset the global warming-induced increased evaporative demand. Here, atmosphere-only experiments are analyzed to identify land regions in which aridity is currently sensitive to ENSO, and where projected future changes in mean aridity exceed the range caused by ENSO variability. Insights into the drivers of these aridity changes are obtained in simulations with incremental addition of three different factors to current climate: ocean warming, vegetation response to elevated CO2 levels, and intensified CO2 radiative forcing. The effect of ocean warming overwhelms the range of ENSO-driven temperature variability worldwide, increasing potential evapotranspiration (PET) in most ENSO-sensitive regions. Additionally, ~39% of the regions currently sensitive to ENSO receive less precipitation in the future, independent of the ENSO phase. Aridity increases consequently in 67-72% of the ENSO-sensitive area. When both radiative and physiological effects are considered, the area affected by aridity rises to 75-79% when using PET-derived measures of aridity, but declines to 41% when total soil moisture aridity indicator is employed. This reduction mainly occurs because plant stomatal resistance increases under enhanced CO2 concentrations, which results in improved plant water use efficiency, and hence reduced evapotranspiration and soil desiccation. Imposing CO2-invariant stomatal resistance may overestimate future drying in PET-derived indices.

Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates

AbstractThe large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day. In the Mediterranean and central Europe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain.