Settlement Change Research Articles

Changes in water flow alter community dynamics in oyster reefs

AbstractFluid (air or water) movements are key determinants of living systems from cellular to community levels of organization. Water flow can influence individual fitness and local population dynamics, but less is known about the collective response of natural communities to alteration in water flow because parameter responses to flow may be additive, juxtaposed, or interactive. To examine how changes in water flow affected initial larval settlement patterns of epifaunal and infaunal animals, colonization of larger individuals, and prey survival, we manipulated water flow (−50% or +47%) in situ using large wooden channels over small experimental oyster reefs. To test whether initial settlement patterns were additive or influenced by early post‐settlement processes (i.e., predation or competition reduced the densities), we compared patterns in short‐duration trials (two weeks) to those in longer duration deployments (six weeks). We found that minor changes in water flow (5–10 cm s−1) resulted in large changes in settlement of many species, predation levels, and the modification of initial settlement patterns. Settlement (two‐week intervals) and subsequent recruitment (six‐week intervals) increased for several species as flow rate increased. For most species, this relationship peaked at mid‐level flows (mud crabs, barnacles, and bivalves), whereas others (oysters) continued to increase with higher flow rates. Settlement patterns were best preserved in recruitment under high flow conditions where post‐settlement mortality was lower. Collectively, our results demonstrate how biological and physical processes are coupled in oyster reef systems, with relatively minor changes in water flow affecting pre‐ and post‐settlement processes.

Functions follow structures? The long-term evolution of economic dynamics, social transformations, and landscape morphology in a Mediterranean metropolis

Identification of the intrinsic properties regulating complex systems’ development contributes to a refined comprehension of their inherent transformations over time. Seen as a local context undergoing non-linear changes as a response to socioeconomic dynamics, landscape evolution over time provides a paradigmatic issue when examining the key property of ‘rapidity-of-change’ characteristic of any complex system. The present study introduces an exploratory approach grounded on mathematical morphology to investigate ‘rapidity-of-change’ of a landscape system evolving in response to external stimuli over 70 years (1948–2018). This framework was applied to a real case (metropolitan Athens, Greece) assessing structural changes in built-up settlements reflected in seven landscape types derived from mathematical morphology. A Multi-way Factor Analysis (MFA) quantified the evolution of landscape types from diachronic land-use maps. A standardized metric of ‘rapidity-of-change’ was calculated from MFA outcomes over six sub-periods and confronted with the background socioeconomic context. Taken as an intrinsic attribute of complex systems, ‘rapidity-of-change’ in Athens’ landscape was largely heterogeneous over time, being more intense during the last economic expansion (2000–2006) under the impulse of the Olympic Games. Intermediate values of ‘rapidity-of-change’ were associated with population growth and intense social transformations. The lowest level of ‘rapidity-of-change’ was finally recorded in correspondence with 2007 recession. Reflecting the intrinsic pressure of socioeconomic growth in contemporary cities, ‘rapidity-of-change’ in landscape systems demonstrated to be a honest proxy of metropolitan cycles, economic downtowns, and socio-demographic dynamics. Delineating long-term transformations in the ‘form-function’ relationship allows evaluation of (direct or indirect) planning impacts on metropolitan development.

Fragments Inpainting for Tomb Murals Using a Dual-Attention Mechanism GAN with Improved Generators

As the only underground mural in the collection, the tomb murals are subject to damage due to temperature, humidity, and foundation settlement changes. Traditional mural inpainting takes a long time and requires experts to draw it manually. Therefore, the need for digital inpainting is increasing to save time and costs. Due to the scarcity of samples and the variety of damage, the image features are scattered and partially sparse, and the colors are less vivid than in other images. Traditional deep learning inpainting causes information loss and generates irrational structures. The generative adversarial network is, recently, a more effective method. Therefore, this paper presents an inpainting model based on dual-attention multiscale feature aggregation and an improved generator. Firstly, an improved residual prior and attention mechanism is added to the generator module to preserve the image structure. Secondly, the model combines spatial and channel attention with multiscale feature aggregation to change the mapping network structure and improve the inpainting accuracy. Finally, the segmental loss function and its training method are improved.The experimental results show that the results of using signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), structural similarity (SSIM), and mean square error (MSE) on epitaxial mask, crack mask, random small mask, and random large mask are better than other methods. It demonstrates the performance of this paper in inpainting different diseases of murals. It can be used as a reference for experts in manual inpainting, saving the cost and time of manual inpainting.

When “the Sweet Gifts of Bacchus” Ended—New Archaeological Evidence for Settlement Changes and the Decline of Wine Production in Late Antique Southern Palestine

Based on the accumulated data from numerous excavations in the hinterland of Gaza and Ashkelon and the results of the comprehensive bioarchaeological research on Late Antique settlement and economy of the Negev Highlands, this article addresses the decline of the flourishing wine industry of southern Palestine, dating it to the second half of the 6th century c.e. The decline in wine production in the region had a direct effect on the rapid abatement of Elusa, the main city of the Negev, and Shivta, a wealthy large village in the western Negev Highlands. Consequently, the extensive system of industrial farms that formed the hub of the flourishing wine industry declined at the same time. This article suggests connecting these events with changes in the patterns of demand, supply, and production of the “sweet gift of Bacchus,” taking into consideration regional aspects, environmental fluctuations, economic transformations, and the decline of consumption markets.

Case Study and Risk Assessment of Water Inrush Disaster in Qingdao Metro Line 4

Water inrush is one of the most frequent and catastrophic hazards in tunnel engineering, and poses serious threats to the safety of engineering and personnel. This paper presents a case study of a water inrush and ground collapse in the Qingdao Metro Line 4, which caused a cave-in with the diameter and depth of about 30 m and 6 m, respectively. Based on the field data and numerical modelling, the causes of the disaster were analyzed. A numerical model was used to analyze the changes of surface settlement, vault settlement and water pressure during the tunnel excavation. The results of the study indicate that the cause of this disaster was the failure of the tunnel vault surrounding rock caused by the weakening of the tunnel surrounding rock and water pressure, which in turn triggered the water inrush in the tunnel and caused a large volume of surface collapse. As the tunnel was excavated from the slightly weathered area to the strongly weathered area, the vault settlement increased, and the influence zone expanded towards the surface due to the continuous decrease in the strength of the surrounding rock. In particular, a negative pore water pressure zone was formed in a certain area around the tunnel during the water inrush. The negative pressure zone caused the surrounding groundwater to converge here, leading to an increase in the amount of water inflow, which also increased the scope and scale of the impact of this disaster. A risk assessment method for water inrush in tunnels is proposed. According to the geological and engineering characteristics of Qingdao area, the evaluation index system of tunnel water inrush risk was established. An RBF neural network was improved by gray correlation analysis and a PAM clustering algorithm to establish the tunnel water inrush risk assessment model. Comparing the evaluation data with the actual data, the prediction data of a traditional RBF neural network and a BP neural network, the accuracy and reliability of the model were verified. This study has value in reducing the occurrence of water inrush in a composite formation tunnel.

Have rural settlement changes harmed ecosystem carbon in China?

The rural landscape is undergoing rapid changes. In China, the expansion of rural settlements is widespread, causing problems to the environment. Previous studies have focused on the effects of built-up land expansion on ecosystem carbon, and this paper further explores the effects of rural settlement changes on ecosystem carbon and investigates the spatial heterogeneity of the relationship. The result shows: rural settlement expansion has led to a significant loss in carbon sinks and vegetation carbon stock, respectively. The main pathway of ecosystem carbon loss is the occupation of cropland. A total of 31% of the regions have a negative coupling relationship between the area of per capita rural settlement and the growth of carbon sinks. The regions where both rural settlements and carbon sink function have declined are mainly concentrated in the northwest, and ecological and rural development in these regions requires additional attention. 63% of the regions show great resilience in terms of carbon sink function in the face of rural settlement expansion.

Urban Sustainability Through the Lens of Migration - Case Study: City of Leskovac, Serbia

Abstract Sustainable spatial transformation, urban governance, and the constraints of urban-rural development can be traced through migration. In the Republic of Serbia, after the rapid increase in the number of people living in urban areas due to internal migration, structural changes in settlements have begun with natural decline and emigration. However, the far-reaching effects of migration on shrinkage have received little attention in policy or practice. To shed light on and predict possible future patterns, this paper looks at the attitudes and intentions of the population towards migration and identifies determinants that influence migration plans for possible future flows inside and from the Republic of Serbia. The paper is based on data from a survey and interviews conducted in the area of the City of Leskovac (N = 1124) with the population 20 + years, local authorities, civil society and the private sector, i.e. those who play a central role in addressing the challenges and optimizing the opportunities created by the growing trend of migration. The survey results show that most respondents support the emigration process, which is mainly influenced by economic factors. In this context, the trend of emigration is expected to continue in the future, and it is perceived as an obstacle to achieving sustainability goals and rarely as an opportunity.

The impact of psychological distance to climate change and urban informality on adaptation planning

Climate change adaptation planning involves adjusting to the impacts of climate change and taking action to mitigate its adverse effects. Psychological distance, the separation between one's self-perception and actual events, can play a significant role in an individual's readiness to adapt to climate change impacts. This study aims to investigate the socioeconomic factors associated with psychological distance to climate change in formal and informal settlements of Lahore, Pakistan. Using a literature review, data indicators were selected and grouped into the psychological distance dimensions of spatial, temporal, social, and hypothetical. A questionnaire survey was conducted in the study area, resulting in a total of 400 responses. Descriptive statistics and sampled paired t-tests were used to measure differences between responses from formal and informal communities, and multivariate regression models were developed to identify socioeconomic factors associated with psychological distance to climate change. The results of the study indicate a significant difference between formal and informal settlements in spatial distance and hypothetical dimensions. Additionally, household size, average household income, number of children, and past experiences with extreme weather conditions were found to be significant factors. The study recommends that these factors be taken into account when engaging with the public, communicating risks, and devising relevant policies for effective adaptation planning.

SOVIET AND POST-SOVIET TRANSFORMATIONS OF URBAN SYSTEM: CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN FROM 1979 TO 2022

This study analyzes the transformation of the urban system in Kazakhstan from 1979 to 2022 by studying the interrelationship between population change in large cities and demographic trends in nearby towns and rural areas. The findings suggest that the collapse of the USSR triggered a large-scale spatial realignment of the population leading to dramatic changes in the population size of urban settlements. The estimations largely failed to confirm relationships between the growth of large cities vs population change in mid-size and small urban settlements that would hold throughout the entire sample period. However, the analysis of district-level data showed that remote and rural areas were more prone to depopulation while districts around rapidly growing large cities had significantly higher rates of population growth. The population in large cities and regional centers was found to be growing much faster than in periphery areas, which is very much in line with findings from studies done on other former Soviet states.

Climate change and health risks in Mukuru informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya – knowledge, attitudes and practices among residents

BackgroundResidents of informal settlements in Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) are vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. Little is known about the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of inhabitants of informal settlements in SSA regarding climate change and its health impacts. The aim of this study was to investigate how inhabitants of an informal settlement in SSA experience climate change and its health impacts and assess related knowledge, attitudes and practices. The study was conducted in Mukuru informal settlement in Nairobi City County, Kenya.MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted in September 2021 using a structured, semi-closed KAP questionnaire. Inclusion criteria were ≥ 18 years of age and living in one of the three main sections in Mukuru: Kwa Njenga, Kwa Reuben or Viwandani. By spinning a pen at the geographic centre of each section, a random direction was selected. Then, in every second household one individual was interviewed, creating a representative mix of ages and genders of the local community. To assess participant characteristics associated with climate change knowledge multivariable logistic regression was used. Thematic content analysis was performed for qualitative responses.ResultsOut of 402 study participants, 76.4% (n = 307) had heard of climate change before the interview, 90.8% (n = 365) reported that climate change was affecting their community, and 92.6% (n = 372) were concerned with the health-related impact of climate change. Having lived in Mukuru for more than 10 years and living in a dwelling close to the riverside were factors significantly associated with having heard of climate change before (aOR 3.1, 95%CI 1.7 – 5.8 and aOR 2.6, 95%CI 1.1 – 6.1, respectively) and experiencing a climate change related impact on the community (aOR 10.7, 95%CI 4.0 – 28.4 and aOR 7.7; 95%CI 1.7 – 34.0, respectively). Chronic respiratory conditions, vector-borne diseases, including infectious diarrhoea, malnutrition and cardiovascular diseases were identified by respondents as climate related health risks.ConclusionsMost respondents were knowledgeable about climate change and were experiencing its (health-related) impact on their community. This study provides insights which may prove useful for policy makers, intervention planners and researchers to work on locally adapted mitigation and adaption strategies.

The Surface Settlement Law of Precipitation in Pile-Beam-Arch Station Adjacent to Pile Foundation

The pile foundations of adjacent buildings can have an impact on the precipitation process in subway stations. In this paper, surface settlement monitoring is carried out by precipitation of horizontal wells in subway stations, and the law of surface settlement change with and without neighboring pile foundations is studied. The influence law of surface settlement in subway stations under different pile depth, different pile spacing and different distance between piles and station boundary is obtained through numerical simulation. Three models of groundwater infiltration in the adjacent pile foundation were established, the principle of pile-soil permeability coefficient equivalence was proposed, and the function relationship between the equivalent soil permeability discount factor and pile parameters was derived. The research results show that the surface settlement is smaller when there are piles in the measured precipitation process than when there are no piles. The greater the pile depth, the smaller the pile spacing and the smaller the pile-station boundary, the stronger the barrier effect and the smaller the final settlement of the ground surface. The accuracy of the formula is also analyzed to show that changing the pile parameters also changes the permeability coefficient of the piles and the soil between the piles. The station surface settlement law is related to the pile parameters, and the study can provide an important theoretical reference for the construction of precipitation with adjacent pile foundations.

Research on Rural Population/Arable Land/Rural Settlements Association Model and Coordinated Development Path: A Case Analysis of the Yellow River Basin (Henan Section).

The countryside is a complex regional system with population and land as the core elements, and it is of great significance to study the coordination of the rural human-land relationship for promoting rural ecological protection and high-quality development. The Yellow River Basin (Henan section) is an important grain-producing area with dense population, fertile soil, and rich water resources. Based on the rate of change index and Tapio decoupling model, this study took county-level administrative region as the evaluation unit to explore the characteristics of the spatio-temporal correlation model of rural population/arable land/rural settlements in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 2009 to 2018 and the optimal path of coordinated development. The results show the following: (1) The decrease of rural population, the increase of arable land in a relatively large part of non-central cities, the decrease of arable land in central cities, and the general increase in the area of rural settlements are the most important characteristics of the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) for the change of rural population/arable land/rural settlements. (2) There are spatial agglomeration characteristics of rural population changes, arable land changes, and rural settlements changes. Areas with a high degree of change in arable land have a certain degree of spatial consistency with areas with a high degree of change in rural settlements. (3) The type of T3 (rural population and arable land)/T3 (rural population and rural settlement) is the most important temporal and spatial combination mode, and rural population outflow is serious. In general, the spatio-temporal correlation model of rural population/arable land/rural settlements in the eastern and western sections of the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) is better than that in the middle section. The research results are helpful to deeply understand the relationship between rural population and land in the period of rapid urbanization and can provide reference for the classification and sub-standard policies of rural revitalization. It is urgent to establish sustainable rural development strategies for improving the human-land relationship, narrowing the rural-urban disparity, innovating rural residential land area policies, and revitalizing the rural area.

Land Use/Land Cover Change Detection and NDVI Estimation in Pakistan’s Southern Punjab Province

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes are among the most significant human-caused global variations affecting the natural environment and ecosystems. Pakistan’s LULC patterns have undergone huge changes since the 1900s, with no clear mitigation plan. This paper aims to determine LULC and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) changes as well as their causes in Pakistan’s Southern Punjab province over four different periods (2000, 2007, 2014, and 2021). Landsat-based images of 30 m × 30 m spatial resolution were used to detect LULC changes, while NDVI dynamics were calculated using Modis Product MOD13Q1 (Tiles: h24 v5, h24 v6) at a resolution of 250 m. The iterative self-organizing (ISO) cluster method (object meta-clustering using the minimal distance center approach) was used to quantify the LULC changes in this research because of its straightforward approach that requires minimal human intervention. The accuracy assessment and the Kappa coefficient were calculated to assess the efficacy of results derived from LULC changes. Our findings revealed considerable changes in settlements, forests, and barren land in Southern Punjab. Compared to 2000, while forest cover had reduced by 31.03%, settlement had increased by 14.52% in 2021. Similarly, forest land had rapidly been converted into barren land. For example, barren land had increased by 12.87% in 2021 compared to 2000. The analysis showed that forests were reduced by 31.03%, while settlements and barren land increased by 14.52% and 12.87%, respectively, over the twenty year period in Southern Punjab. The forest area had decreased to 4.36% by 2021. It shows that 31.03% of forest land had been converted to urban land, barren ground, and farmland. Land that was formerly utilized for vegetation had been converted into urban land due to the expansion of infrastructure and the commercial sector in Southern Punjab. Consequently, proper monitoring of LULC changes is required. Furthermore, relevant agencies, governments, and policymakers must focus on land management development. Finally, the current study provides an overall scenario of how LULC trends are evolving over the study region, which aids in land use planning and management.

Urban-rural disparities of carbon storage dynamics in China's human settlements driven by population and economic growth

China has experienced a rapid expansion of human settlement in both urban and rural areas over the past three decades. Regarding the impacts on carbon storage, previous studies that only focus on certain ecosystems cannot reflect urban-rural disparities, resulting in the carbon storage changes in human settlement remaining unknown. In this study, we aimed to explore China's urban-rural disparities in human settlement expansion and direct impacts on carbon storage by using the big Earth data technology. The results showed that from 1990 to 2018, the total amount of China's human settlement expansion reached 175,703.80 km2, and the inner-city, peri-urban, and rural components accounted for 21.00 %, 20.18 %, and 58.82 %, respectively. Along with the general tendency of impervious surface area (ISA) growth, there was more soil organic carbon (SOC) (1254.33 TgC) being sealed beneath ISA (0–100 cm depth), compared to a huge reduction in vegetation biomass carbon (VBC) (91.44 TgC) during the study period. The results further indicated that the change density of either VBC or SOC presented a slightly rising trend along the urban-rural gradient, due to the increasingly common encroachment on vegetation and soil types with higher carbon content. We also found that socioeconomic drivers had a greater influence in urban areas than rural areas, and the related correlation exhibited a descending trajectory in both urban and rural areas. There is thus an urgent need to preserve lands with abundant carbon storage and contain the waste of land resources in rural areas. All stakeholders should pay more attention to concerted and targeted regulation policies for well-planned and eco-friendly human settlement expansion such as enhancing rural land use efficiency and promoting large-scale afforestation and continuous urban greening, which will be critical not only for guiding sustainable urbanization all over China but also for mitigating climate change for the entire world.

The Influence of Foreign Cultural Discourse on the Uma Settlement in Mentawai, Indonesia

The entry of foreign cultures into the Mentawai people made the settlements change. The Mentawai people no longer make Uma a social and economic community. This change was due to the existence of housing and the form of houses built by different Governments. This study aimed to look at outside culture's influence on Uma settlements in Mentawai. This qualitative research method uses ethnographic, sociological, and anthropological approaches using observational data collection techniques, documentation studies, and interviews. Data analysis techniques in this study are data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion or verification. The results of this study show that outside culture has a major influence on the Uma settlement in the Mentawai. Nevertheless, the Siberut archipelago is the only archipelago that has survived despite changes in the housing environment and the shape of houses built by the Government with a description of socio-cultural and economic characteristics, which still survive. This condition still applies today. However, in Sikakap, Sipora, North Pagai, and South Pagai all the uma settlements no longer exist. This is caused by the influence of an outside culture that enters Mentawai society. These external cultural influences are as follows: the entry of foreign cultures into the Mentawai islands, the open nature of the Mentawai people, and the modernization of the form of permanent houses to eliminate uma as the original settlement of the Mentawai people.

A Latest-Paleoindian-Aged Pronghorn Trap in the Goshute Valley, Eastern Great Basin, USA

ABSTRACT We report the discovery of a large-scale artificial pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) trap located near Silver Zone Pass in the northern Goshute Valley, eastern Elko County, Nevada. Evidence comes from three closely related and closely spaced surface scatters of lithic artifacts called the Silver Zone Pass Complex. Two of the scatters represent a single kill zone, or corral, while the third represents an associated campsite. The assemblage of 282 bifacial points and fragments from the three scatters is characterized by short-stemmed Windust and Pinto forms, elsewhere dated to the early-mid Holocene, about 8500–7500 calendar years ago. With this discovery, we can firmly conclude that large-scale communal trapping of artiodactyls began in the eastern Great Basin 2000–3000 years earlier than previously thought, and is coincident with other significant changes in human technology, subsistence, and settlement documented for the Paleoindian-Archaic transition in the region.

Демографические процессы в системе расселения северных районов Дальнего Востока (на материалах Амурской области)

Transformations taking place in the Russian Far East in the recent decades have been accompanied by a significant reduction in the population associated with the migration outflow and excess of the mortality rate over the birth rate, degradation of the existing settlement system. These trends are especially strong in the northern regions, as well as in the northern part of the territories and regions of the south of the region. The purpose of this work is to assess changes in demographic processes occurring in the settlements of municipalities of the Amur region, equated to the regions of the Far North, to determine the transformations taking place in the current settlement system for the period of 1989–2023. Analysis of the features of development of demographic processes in areas equated to the Far North, taking into account the characteristics of municipalities and the system of settlements that has developed during the development of economic activity, allows us to assess the possibilities of implementing program goals and prospects for the transformation of the settlement system. Assessment of the features of migration and natural movement of population in the municipalities of the north of the region, indicate decline of the population, degradation of its structure. The paper describes the dynamics of population change in settlements of various economic specialization, size and distance from the district center. The role of natural and climatic factors, the peculiarities of the organization of production in the extractive industries is determined. It is revealed that the emerging dynamics of demographic processes is determined by a combination of factors, among which. In addition to natural and climatic conditions, a significant role is played by the peculiarities of economic activity, the level of development of the complex of social infrastructure in settlements and settlement centers. Obtained results create informational basis for supplementing the developed programs of socio-economic development of municipalities of the northern territories with the definition of prospects for transformations at the level of individual settlements.

«СЕМЕЙНЫЙ ФОТОАЛЬБОМ» ОДНОГО СИБИРСКОГО СТАРОВЕРА: МЕТОДЫ БИО(ФОТО)ГРАФИИ

On the basis of the original source - photo albums of one taiga Old Believer-chapel, both techniques of external and internal criticism of such data are characterized, and the method of fxing such a type of historical and ethnographic evidence is being worked out. Heuristic value provides as rare for the 1970-1990sthe “hobby” of the owner is the occupation of amator photography (we state that until the time of our research in the ethno-confessional group there was a ban on such practice). The biography of this personality is typical for the group as a whole - the change of several settlements during one life (in this case - from Verkhoviy to the Middle Course of the Yenisei). Such mobility, along with the “documentation” of the main stages of resettlement, allows you to directly reconstruct the phenomenon of “religious migrations.”

Political mission of urban planning: reconciling conflicting development goals

In the polemic of urban planning discussions, the problems of the incompleteness of the theoretical basis and the unreliability of the proposed guidelines for solving real-world problems have long been discussed. Therefore, without consistent guidelines, planners are forced to rely on intuition and common sense in often contradictory directions of chois. In addition, the picture of development context is much more complicated due to the ever-increasing uncertainty of outlook and the growing momentum of environmental and economic challenges. Today, the task of improving the methodology for predicting changes in human settlements and their impact on local and global ecosystems is particularly acute. Assessing potential short-and long-term social impacts requires the deployment of large-scale studies to quickly present and compare predicted results. This will allow to assess the impact of urban growth on the evolution of ecosystems. Since little attention is paid to macro-regional forecasting issues, there are no proper assessments of the social consequences of planned decisions. In the political discourse of professional societies and institutions, many of these issues are also remain unaddressed.

Co Loa: Biography of an Anomalous Place

Situated in present-day Vietnam’s Red River Valley, the settlement known as Co Loa constitutes an early form of city and urbanism in South-East Asia. Given its unprecedented scale and forms of monumentality, Co Loa stands as an anomaly for the greater region during the first millennium bc. This paper presents available material data to highlight the factors and conditions that contributed to its emergence as a major settlement during the region’s late prehistoric period, and considers how the case can contribute to the theoretical literature concerning long-term trajectories of settlement change in the region.