Functions follow structures? The long-term evolution of economic dynamics, social transformations, and landscape morphology in a Mediterranean metropolis

Abstract

Identification of the intrinsic properties regulating complex systems’ development contributes to a refined comprehension of their inherent transformations over time. Seen as a local context undergoing non-linear changes as a response to socioeconomic dynamics, landscape evolution over time provides a paradigmatic issue when examining the key property of ‘rapidity-of-change’ characteristic of any complex system. The present study introduces an exploratory approach grounded on mathematical morphology to investigate ‘rapidity-of-change’ of a landscape system evolving in response to external stimuli over 70 years (1948–2018). This framework was applied to a real case (metropolitan Athens, Greece) assessing structural changes in built-up settlements reflected in seven landscape types derived from mathematical morphology. A Multi-way Factor Analysis (MFA) quantified the evolution of landscape types from diachronic land-use maps. A standardized metric of ‘rapidity-of-change’ was calculated from MFA outcomes over six sub-periods and confronted with the background socioeconomic context. Taken as an intrinsic attribute of complex systems, ‘rapidity-of-change’ in Athens’ landscape was largely heterogeneous over time, being more intense during the last economic expansion (2000–2006) under the impulse of the Olympic Games. Intermediate values of ‘rapidity-of-change’ were associated with population growth and intense social transformations. The lowest level of ‘rapidity-of-change’ was finally recorded in correspondence with 2007 recession. Reflecting the intrinsic pressure of socioeconomic growth in contemporary cities, ‘rapidity-of-change’ in landscape systems demonstrated to be a honest proxy of metropolitan cycles, economic downtowns, and socio-demographic dynamics. Delineating long-term transformations in the ‘form-function’ relationship allows evaluation of (direct or indirect) planning impacts on metropolitan development.