Changes In Mortality Research Articles

DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS OF THE REGIONAL LABOR MARKET FORMATION (EVIDENCE FROM CHERNIHIV REGION)

The study of the factors affecting the labor market is of current interest, because the labor power is the main productive power of the society and an important factor in the manufacture. Moreover, its rational use contributes to the increase of economic efficiency. The contradiction and complexity of the situation on the labor market is that, on the one hand, the market has expanded the diversity of employment forms and places of labor application, thus increasing the possibility of self-realization of the population in the field of economics. On the other hand, institutional transformations and crisis phenomena in the Ukrainian society have caused significant losses of living labor. The issues of skilled personnel formation and efficiency of labor resources use intensified. The labor market is unbalanced, which does not contribute to a rational distribution of labor resources.The article covers the main results of the study on the demographic processes in Chernihiv region, which have an impact on the labour force formation at the regional level. The significant factors of influence on the process of labour market formation in Chernihiv region are birth and death rates, natural population increase, gender and age structure of the population, migration processes.It is proven that in Chernihiv region the process of population decline is sustainable, and it is defined as the combined effect of the processes of birth and death rates which have a direct impact on the labour market condition. Changes in birth rate influence the labour force after a certain period of time, and the change in death rate, especially among people of working age, has a negative impact on the change in the number of labour resources.The influence of population replacement processes on the change in the economically active population is demonstrated. The economically active population forms the base of demand for labour force in the labour market. The long-term declining trend in the population of Chernihiv region owing to low birth rate caused the decline in share of the before working age population (14,5%) and the increase in share of the individuals being after working age (26,5%) and this is reflected in the decline of replenishment to the reserves by labour resources and their aging. The article analyses the gender structure of the population of Chernihiv region. The structure reveals that there is higher population of women than men (54,6% and 45,4% respectively). Gender disproportion causes deformation of population replacement process and as a result there is gender inequality in the regional labour market.The article shows the role of migration in the regional labour market formation in Chernihiv region. The region is characterized by the negative migratory population growth. Large-scale interregional labour migrations, mainly to Kyiv, cover a large part of the working age population of economically deprived urban and rural territories of Chernihiv region.

Economic Insecurity and Deaths of Despair in US Counties.

Recent research has implicated economic insecurity in increasing midlife death rates and "deaths of despair," including suicide, chronic liver disease, and drug and alcohol poisoning. In this ecological longitudinal study, we evaluated the association between changes in economic insecurity and increases in deaths of despair and midlife all-cause mortality in US counties during 2000-2015. We extended a previously developed measure of economic insecurity using indicators from the Census and Federal Reserve Bank in US counties for the years 2000 and 2010. Linear regression models were used to estimate the association of change in economic insecurity with change in death rates through 2015. Counties experiencing elevated economic insecurity in either 2000 or 2010 had higher rates of deaths of despair and all-cause midlife mortality at baseline but similar rates of increase in deaths of despair from 2001 to 2015 compared with counties with stable low economic insecurity. Counties in the highest tertile of economic insecurity in 2000 and 2010 had 41% (95% confidence interval: 1.36, 1.47) higher midlife mortality rates at baseline and a rate of increase of 2% more per 5-year period (95% confidence interval: 1.00, 1.03) than counties with stable low economic insecurity. Economic insecurity may represent a population-level driver of US death trends.

Drug and Opioid-Involved Overdose Deaths - United States, 2013-2017.

The 63,632 drug overdose deaths in the United States in 2016 represented a 21.4% increase from 2015; two thirds of these deaths involved an opioid (1). From 2015 to 2016, drug overdose deaths increased in all drug categories examined; the largest increase occurred among deaths involving synthetic opioids other than methadone (synthetic opioids), which includes illicitly manufactured fentanyl (IMF) (1). Since 2013, driven largely by IMF, including fentanyl analogs (2-4), the current wave of the opioid overdose epidemic has been marked by increases in deaths involving synthetic opioids. IMF has contributed to increases in overdose deaths, with geographic differences reported (1). CDC examined state-level changes in death rates involving all drug overdoses in 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC) and those involving synthetic opioids in 20 states, during 2013-2017. In addition, changes in death rates from 2016 to 2017 involving all opioids and opioid subcategories,* were examined by demographics, county urbanization levels, and by 34 states and DC. Among 70,237 drug overdose deaths in 2017, 47,600 (67.8%) involved an opioid.† From 2013 to 2017, drug overdose death rates increased in 35 of 50 states and DC, and significant increases in death rates involving synthetic opioids occurred in 15 of 20 states, likely driven by IMF (2,3). From 2016 to 2017, overdose deaths involving all opioids and synthetic opioids increased, but deaths involving prescription opioids and heroin remained stable. The opioid overdose epidemic continues to worsen and evolve because of the continuing increase in deaths involving synthetic opioids. Provisional data from 2018 indicate potential improvements in some drug overdose indicators;§ however, analysis of final data from 2018 is necessary for confirmation. More timely and comprehensive surveillance data are essential to inform efforts to prevent and respond to opioid overdoses; intensified prevention and response measures are urgently needed to curb deaths involving prescription and illicit opioids, specifically IMF.

Death Rates and Modern Life Expectancy

Abstract Jacqueline Speel writes: Many years ago, I read an article about an unexpected dip in deaths in New Zealand, which was worked out to be the effect of deaths having already occurred in World War I. Would the recently stated change in death rates in the UK have some similar relationship to World War II? Death rates and modern life expectancy.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE POPULATION MORTALITY OF THE YAMAL-NENETS AUTONOMOUS DISTRICT FOR THE PERIOD OF 1993-2016

Aim. This study was designed for the determination of the priority directions of the reduction of the population mortality of the Yamalo-Nenets autonomous district and the estimation of the place of death from certain major groups of death causes in total mortality in the Yamal-Nenets autonomous district for the period of 1993−2016.Materials and methods. There was performed the analysis of the dynamics of death rates and the number of deaths depending on the sex, age group, locality and causes of death.Results. The change in the sex and age structure of the population due to the natural aging and migration movements (the decrease in the proportion of the population younger than 20 years by 8.38% and the increase of the proportion of the population older than 60 years by 4.62% of the total population) had a major influence on the dynamics of the change in death rates of the population. The most significant causes of death in 2016 were: in men − cardiovascular diseases, external causes of death, neoplasms; in women − cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, external causes of death. The primary directions of reducing the mortality of the population of the YNAO can be determined by the most significant groups of causes of death: cardiovascular diseases of the population; diseases of the digestive system; neoplasms of the digestive, respiratory and genital organs; infant mortality due to infections (with the exception of respiratory infections) and circulatory problems; deaths due to alcohol-related causes.Conclusion. The obtained results can form the basis for management measures to reduce mortality in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District.

Independent Relationship of Changes in Death Rates with Changes in US Presidential Voting

BackgroundThe outcome of the 2016 presidential election is commonly attributed to socioeconomic and ethnic/racial issues, but health issues, including “deaths of despair,” may also have contributed.ObjectiveTo assess whether changes in age-adjusted death rates were independently associated with changes in presidential election voting in 2016 vs. 2008.DesignWe used publicly available data in each of 3112 US counties to correlate changes in a county’s presidential voting in 2016 compared with 2008 with recent changes in its age-adjusted death rate, after controlling for population and rural-urban status, median age, race/ethnicity, income, education, unemployment rate, and health insurance rate.Design SettingCross-sectional analysis of county-specific data.Setting/ParticipantsAll 3112 US counties.Main MeasuresThe independent correlation of a county’s change in age-adjusted death rate between 2000 and 2015 with its net percentage Republican gain or loss in the presidential election of 2016 vs. 2008.Key ResultsIn 2016, President Trump increased the Republican presidential vote percentage in 83.8% of counties compared with Senator McCain in 2008. Counties with an increased Republican vote percentage in 2016 vs. 2008 had a 15% higher 2015 age-adjusted death rate than counties with an increased Democratic vote percentage. Since 2000, overall death rates declined by less than half as much, and death rates from drugs, alcohol, and suicide increased 2.5 times as much in counties with Republican gains compared with counties with Democratic gains. In multivariable analyses, Republican net presidential gain in 2016 vs. 2008 was independently correlated with slower reductions in a county’s age-adjusted death rate. Although correlation cannot infer causality, modest reductions in death rates might theoretically have shifted Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to Secretary Clinton.ConclusionsLess of a reduction in age-adjusted death rates was an independent correlate of an increased Republican percentage vote in 2016 vs. 2008. Death rates may be markers of dissatisfactions and fears that influenced the 2016 Presidential election outcomes.

Mortality Related to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Co-morbidities in the United States, A Multiple Causes of Death Analysis

ABSTRACTChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality based on the underlying cause of death (UCOD) underestimates disease burden. We aimed to determine the current COPD mortality rate, trends and the distribution of co-morbidities using United States (US) multiple-cause of death (MCOD) records.All 38,905,575 death certificates of decedents aged ≥45 years in the United States were analyzed for 1999–2015. COPD was defined by ICD–10 codes J40–J44 and J47 based either on the UCOD or up to 20 contributing causes coded. Annual age–standardized COPD death rates were computed by age, gender and race/ethnicity for those with any mention of COPD.In 2015, COPD was mentioned in 11.59% (292,572 deaths) in MCOD, compared to 11.13% (243,617 deaths) in 1999, a 4% increase. However, it was reported as the UCOD for only 5.56% and 4.97% in 2015 and 1999 respectively, an 11% increase. The most common UCOD in subjects with any mention of COPD was respiratory disorders in 49% of males and 55% of females. The relative change in death rates differed between MCOD and UCOD. For example, among non-Hispanic white females aged 65–74 years the UCOD rate per 100,000 (95% CI) decreased from 163 (160–166) to 147 (145–150), average annual percent decrease (AAPD) –0.26, while the MCOD rate decreased from 308 (304–311) to 263 (260–267), AAPD –0.87.Statistics based on UCOD understated the burden of COPD in the United States. MCOD rates were twice as high as UCOD rates. The relative change in death percent or rates differed between MCOD and UCOD. MCOD analysis should be repeated periodically to help evaluate the burden of COPD-related mortality.

The Causes of China's Great Famine, 1959-1961: County-Level Evidence

This study provides evidence that the over-export of grains aggravated the severity of China’s Great Famine. We collect county-level data for the 1953-1965 period on death rates, birth rates, amounts of grain procured, output of different types of grain, crop productivity, weather conditions, distance to railways, and the number of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) members. We exploit county-level variations in the types of crops each county specialized in to construct Bartik-style measures of export shocks. We regress the death rates on the Bartik export measures and use the weather shocks as instruments for measuring output and consumption. The regression results suggest that increases in grain exports substantially increase death rates, and the effect of grain exports on death rates is larger in counties with lower current output, higher two-period lagged output, larger distance to railways, and a smaller percentage of local CCP members. We also estimate the effects of the procurement policy, examine the relationship between the death rates and the average level of consumption at the county-level during the famine period, and conduct counterfactual experiments to quantify the relative importance of different causes of the Great Famine. The counterfactual experiments indicate that the effect of grain exports explains 12 percent of the excess deaths, which amounts to 1/5 of the effect of the increase in procurement rates between 1957 and 1959. By comparing the distribution of county-level counterfactual changes in death rates if the amount of grain exports in 1959 had been the same as that in 1957, we find that the distribution of the high-export-exposure counties first-order stochastically dominates that of the low-export-exposure counties.

Protocol for a multicentre, multistage, prospective study in China using system-based approaches for consistent improvement in surgical safety

IntroductionSurgical safety has emerged as a crucial global health issue in the past two decades. Although several safety-enhancing tools are available, the pace of large-scale improvement remains slow, especially in...

The Affordable Care Act and its association with length of stay and payer status for trauma patients at a level I trauma center

BackgroundWe hypothesized that the ACA would shorten length of stay and increase numbers of insured patients without changing trauma patient outcomes. MethodsA retrospective review of adult trauma patients admitted to a level I trauma center between 2012 and 2014 was performed. Demographics, length of stay, payer status, discharge disposition, and complications before and after the ACA implementation were analyzed. Results4448 trauma patients were admitted during the study period. Patients treated after ACA implementation were older (53 vs 51, p = 0.05) with shorter ICU stays (1.7 vs 1.5 days, p = 0.04), but longer overall hospital stays (3.7 vs 4.1 days, p < 0.01). The proportion of self-pay patients decreased 11%–3% (p=<0.001). A higher proportion of patients were discharged to skilled nursing facilities (SNF, 17.1% vs 19.9%, p = 0.02). There was no change in rates of death, readmission, infection, pneumonia or decubiti. ConclusionAmong trauma patients, there was a decrease in self-pay status and increase in public insurance without change in private insurance after implementation of the ACA. More patients were discharged to SNF without changes in reported outcomes.

New Ways to Die in the Age of Biomedicalization: Changes in Cause-of-Death Classification and the Medicalization of Aging

Understanding the transition from acute causes of death (like pneumonia) to chronic causes of death (like heart disease) is an important theoretical and policy issue. Qualitative work in medicalization and biomedicalization highlight the importance of changing institutional and structural factors in diagnosing cause of death. However, apart from a few incidental studies, quantitative research has not evaluated these impacts. Using administrative data, this study looks directly at the importance of changes in formal diagnostic criteria from an older system to a newer system in 1999. Using Bayesian changepoint models on multiple cause mortality datasets from 1994-2003 (n=23 million) and multinomial logistic regression on a bridge coded dataset from 1996 (n=2 million), this study finds this change in diagnostic criteria is associated with changes in the relative rates of death between acute and chronic causes. Specifically, (1) the old system shows a decreasing rate of acute conditions, (2) the new system lists many more acute conditions, and shows a flat but lower rate of acute conditions; and (3) independent of disease incidence, the new system impacts age-specific rates, where younger individuals are more often reported to die of acute conditions, and older individuals are reported to die of chronic conditions.

Use of imaging tests after primary treatment of thyroid cancer in the United States: population based retrospective cohort study evaluating death and recurrence

Objective To determine whether the use of imaging tests after primary treatment of differentiated thyroid cancer is associated with more treatment for recurrence and fewer deaths from the disease.Design Population...

Spectrum of unnatural deaths associated with positive toxicology findings in Eastern Province, KSA: An autopsy based study

BackgroundMortality statistics are crucial for monitoring changes in death rates, demographics and causes. The importance of autopsy performance and result documentation for mortality statistics has been referred to and debated over a long period in many places all over the world. ObjectiveTo determine the spectrum of unnatural deaths, focusing on toxicological findings in respect to gender susceptibility, inhabitant nationality, manners and causes of death, and weaponry over a period of five years in the Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia. MethodsThe unnatural deaths whether suicidal, homicidal or, accidental fatalities in the period from 2009 to 2013 in the Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia were retrospectively studied from autopsy reports. ResultsOf the 1335 cases examined in the Dammam Forensic Center over five years, 220 unnatural fatalities were positive for alcohol and poisons. All positive cases were investigated retrospectively by the Forensic Medical Authority, Eastern Province in the five years period starting from 2009 till 2013. Toxicological results in the examined samples were obtained for all studied cases. The subjects were chiefly males (90.9%), most of the cases were in the young age group aging between 21 and 30years of age (30.5%). Accidental causes significantly predominated (61.8%) over suicidal and homicidal causes (20.5%, and 10.9% respectively). Most of the cases were Saudi (45%), followed by Indian nationals (25.5%). ConclusionIn conclusion, this study highlights key findings of demographic differences in unnatural deaths in the Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia.

Can deaths in police cells be prevented? Experience from Norway and death rates in other countries

PurposeTo describe the changes in death rates and causes of deaths in Norwegian police cells during the last 2 decades. To review reports on death rates in police cells that have been published in medical journals and elsewhere, and discuss the difficulties of comparing death rates between countries. MethodsData on deaths in Norwegian police cells were collected retrospectively in 2002 and 2012 for two time periods: 1993–2001 (period 1) and 2003–2012 (period 2). Several databases were searched to find reports on deaths in police cells from as many countries as possible. ResultsThe death rates in Norwegian police cells reduced significantly from 0.83 deaths per year per million inhabitants (DYM) in period 1 to 0.22 DYM in period 2 (p < 0.05). The most common cause of death in period 1 was alcohol intoxication including intracranial bleeding in persons with high blood alcohol levels, and the number declined from 16 persons in period 1 to 1 person in period 2 (p = 0.032). The median death rate in the surveyed Western countries was 0.44 DYM (range: 0.14–1.46 DYM). ConclusionThe number of deaths in Norwegian police cells reduced by about 75% over a period of approximately 10 years. This is probably mainly due to individuals with severe alcohol intoxication no longer being placed in police cells. However, there remain large methodology difficulties in comparing deaths rates between countries.

The Edmondson Egg Ratio Method: An Elegant Approach to Obtaining Birth and Death Rates for Field Populations

Every important process in population ecology ultimately influences either fecundity or survival, so reliable methods for estimating birth and death rates in the field are key to understanding what features of the environment regulate population dynamics. In 1960 W. T. Edmondson, after visiting the Istituto Italiano de Idrobiologia in Pallanza while on sabbatical leave from the University of Washington, published a remarkably simple method for estimating zooplankton instantaneous birth rate, b, based on females’ mean clutch size and egg development time as a function of temperature (Edmondson 1960). He further pointed out that, taken together with population instantaneous rate of change, r, calculated from the population sizes on consecutive dates, instantaneous death rate could be calculated as d = r − b.

The UK maternal death report.

The UK maternal death report.

Did the health of the Dutch population improve between 2001 and 2008? Investigating age- and gender-specific trends in quality of life.

Although many countries' populations have experienced increasing life expectancy in recent decades, quality of life (QoL) trends in the general population have yet to be investigated. This paper investigates whether QoL changed for the general Dutch population over the period 2001-2008. A beta regression model was employed to address specific features of the QoL distribution (i.e., boundedness, skewness, and heteroskedasticity), as well non-linear age and time trends. Quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) was calculated by combining model estimates of mean QoL with mortality rates provided by Statistics Netherlands. Changes in QALE were decomposed into those changes caused by QoL changes and those caused by mortality-rate changes. The results revealed a significant increase in QoL over 2001-2008 for both genders and most ages. For example, QALE for a man/woman aged 20 was found to have increased by 2.3/1.9 healthy years, of which 0.6/0.8 was due to QoL improvements.

G13 Trends in admission and death rates due to Paediatric Head injury in England and Wales 2000–2012

Over the last ten years there has been a steady rise in short paediatric admissions. This is likely to be multi-factorial but is in part attributed to the introduction of...

Seasonal changes of death rates of pneumonia for the aged by prefecture

Seasonal changes of death rates of pneumonia for the aged by prefecture

Seasonal changes of death rates of heart diseases and of cerebrovascular diseases for the age groups 75-84 and 85-94 by prefecture

Seasonal changes of death rates of heart diseases and of cerebrovascular diseases for the age groups 75-84 and 85-94 by prefecture