Anthropogenic Global Warming Research Articles

Recent Advances and Challenges in Emerging Power Systems

Diminishing fossil fuels, the continually increasing demand for energy due to rapid urbanization, pollution caused by the increased generation of electricity using fossil fuels, the consequent environmental effect, and concerns about man-made global warming have prompted a call for renewable energy solutions [...]

New Decomposition Models for Hourly Direct Normal Irradiance Estimations for Southern Africa

This research develops and validates new decomposition models for hourly direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) estimations for Southern African data. Localised models were developed using data collected from the Southern African Universities Radiometric Network (SAURAN). Clustered areas within Southern Africa were identified, and the developed cluster decomposition models highlighted the potential advantages of grouping data based on shared geographical and climatic attributes. This clustering approach could enhance decomposition model performance, particularly when local data are limited or when data are available from multiple nearby stations. Further, a regional Southern African decomposition model, which encompasses a wide spectrum of climatic regions and geographic locations, exhibited notable improvements over the baseline models despite occasional overestimation or underestimation. The results demonstrated improved DNI estimation accuracy compared to the baseline models across all testing and validation datasets. These outcomes suggest that utilising a localised model can significantly enhance DNI estimations for Southern Africa and potentially for developing similar models in diverse geographic regions worldwide. The overall metrics affirm the substantial advancement achieved with the regional model as an accurate decomposition model representing Southern Africa. Two stations were used as a validation study, as an application example where no localised model was available, and the cluster and regional models both outperformed the comparative decomposition models. This study focused on validating the model for hourly DNI in Southern Africa within a range of Kt-intervals from 0.175 to 0.875, and the range could be expanded and validated for future studies. Implementing accurate decomposition models in developing countries can accelerate the adoption of renewable energy sources, diminishing reliance on coal and fossil fuels.

Can limiting global temperature rise to below 2°C warming prevent the emergence of unprecedented drought?

In the context of anthropogenic global warming, unprecedented drought is expected to emerge over some regions where drought conditions exceed the variation range of the natural state. However, it is still unclear how the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming targets proposed by the Paris Agreement will delay or even prevent the emergence of unprecedented drought. To illustrate the benefits of the two warming targets for mitigating drought conditions, this study investigated the time of emergence (TOE) of unprecedented meteorological drought as indicated by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model ensembles forced by 4 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). In particular, the pattern of TOE is explored for 4 pseudo warming scenarios under which global mean surface temperature (GMST) increases by 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. The results suggested that: (1) Under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios, unprecedented meteorological drought is anticipated to emerge over southern Africa, Arabian Peninsula, central Asia, Mongolia, southwestern South America, and western and eastern Australia. (2) Under the 3 °C and 4 °C warming scenarios, unprecedented meteorological drought will expand to western North America, the Amazon, and the Mediterranean. (3) The comparisons with the exposure under the 3 °C and 4 °C warming scenarios show that the aspirational 1.5 °C and 2 °C Paris Agreement warming targets can prevent at least 0.6 × 107 km2 of land area, 1.4 × 108 people, and 0.6 × 106 km2 of cropland area from suffering the emergence of unprecedented meteorological drought.

Does ‘net zero’ mean zero cows?

ABSTRACT A significant share of anthropogenic global warming comes from livestock production. There is debate about whether there can be any role for livestock in a climatically sustainable future; the debate is particularly heated for cows and sheep, largely due to the methane they burp out. However, short-lived gases like methane affect climate in a fundamentally different way than long-lived gases like carbon dioxide. Consequently, climate stabilization does not require zeroing-out cattle herds. But this doesn’t mean we can eat our beef and have it (a tolerable climate) too—livestock still contribute to global warming. Preventing or limiting future growth in livestock-related emissions can represent a sensible part of the portfolio of responses to the climate crisis, particularly when carbon dioxide emissions are not on track to reach net zero sufficiently quickly.

A Systematic Review of the Application of the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager to the Water Quality Monitoring of Inland and Coastal Waters

A Systematic Review of the Application of the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager to the Water Quality Monitoring of Inland and Coastal Waters

Extreme weather experience and climate change risk perceptions: The roles of partisanship and climate change cause attribution

Climate change risk perceptions are crucial in influencing individuals' behavioral changes and shaping policy preferences for climate change mitigation. Experience of recent extreme weather events may enhance people's awareness of climate change and thus alter their attitudes toward climate change. This study examines the correlations between extreme weather experience and climate change risk perceptions using Australia's most recent representative national survey data (2020 Australian Survey of Social Attitudes). The results demonstrate that the positive effect of extreme weather experience on climate change risk perceptions, both to the World and to Australia, became nonsignificant when all variables were controlled. Notably, extreme weather experiences amplified the perceptions of climate change risk among individuals without party affiliations, but they did not affect those with solid party affiliations, neither with the National-Liberal Coalition nor Labor or the Greens. Furthermore, the impact of extreme weather experiences on climate change risk perceptions is not direct but primarily indirect through individuals' cause attribution of climate change. This paper provides valuable insights into the linkage mechanism between extreme weather experience and climate change risk perceptions.

Hydrologic cycle weakening in hothouse climates.

The hydrologic cycle has wide impacts on the ocean salinity and circulation, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and the ecosystem. Under anthropogenic global warming, previous studies showed that the intensification of the hydrologic cycle is a robust feature. Whether this trend persists in hothouse climates, however, is unknown. Here, we show in climate models that mean precipitation first increases with rising surface temperature, but the precipitation trend reverses when the surface is hotter than ~320 to 330 kelvin. This nonmonotonic phenomenon is robust to the cause of warming, convection scheme, ocean dynamics, atmospheric mass, planetary rotation, gravity, and stellar spectrum. The weakening occurs because of the existence of an upper limitation of outgoing longwave emission and the continuously increasing shortwave absorption by H2O and is consistent with atmospheric dynamics featuring the strong increase of atmospheric stratification and marked reduction of convective mass flux. These results have wide implications for the climate evolutions of Earth, Venus, and potentially habitable exoplanets.

Wavelet Analysis of Atmospheric Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation on Solar Cycle-24 over Lumbini, Nepal

This research aims to comprehensively examine the clearness index (KT), total ozone column (TOC), and ultraviolet A (UVA) and ultraviolet B radiation (UVB) over Lumbini, Nepal (27°28’ N, 83°16’ E, and 150 m above sea level) throughout the 11 years of solar cycle 24 (2008 to 2018). The Lumbini, a highly polluted region, is important in advancing the identification and analysis of TOC variations across regions with similar geographical and climatic attributes. Data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) of the EOS-AURA satellite of NASA were used to analyze the daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual trends in the clearness index (KT), ultraviolet A (UVA), ultraviolet B (UVB), and TOC from the Comprehensive Environmental Data Archive (CEDA). The study found that the yearly averages for KT, TOC, UVA, and UVB were 0.55 ± 0.13, 272 ± 14 DU, 12.61 ± 3.50 W/m2, and 0.32 ± 0.11 W/m2, respectively. These values provide insights into the long-term variations in atmospheric parameters at Lumbini. The study also applied the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to analyze KT, TOC, UVA, and UVB temporal variations. The power density peak of 35,000 DU2 in the TOC was observed from the end of 2010 to the end of 2011, within 8.5 years, underscoring the significance of analyzing TOC dynamics over extended durations to understand atmospheric behavior comprehensively.

Sedimentary DNA reveals phytoplankton diversity loss in a deep maar lake during the Anthropocene

AbstractAnthropogenic‐driven environmental change, including current climate warming, has influenced lake ecosystems globally during the Anthropocene. Phytoplankton are important indicators of environmental changes in lakes and play a fundamental role in maintaining the functioning and stability of these ecosystems. However, the extent to which lake phytoplankton were affected by anthropogenic or climatic forces during the Anthropocene remains unclear. Here, we investigated the 160‐yr‐long dynamics of the phytoplankton community (cyanobacteria and eukaryotic microalgae) in response to anthropogenic forcing in Sihailongwan Maar Lake—a candidate for a Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point for demarcation of the Anthropocene—using DNA metabarcoding and traditional paleolimnological approaches. Our results show a significant decline in phytoplankton diversity and an abrupt shift in community composition around the 1950s, corresponding to the beginning of the “Great Acceleration” period. Specifically, phytoplankton taxa coexistence patterns, niche differentiation, and assembly mechanisms changed significantly after the 1950s. Overall, increases in air temperature and anthropogenic forcing appear to be the dominant controls for community reorganization and diversity decline of the phytoplankton from this deep maar lake. A neutral community model suggests that phytoplankton community composition was mainly controlled by stochastic processes before the 1950s; however, as time progressed, deterministic effects driven by anthropogenic global warming increased. The results of this study imply that anthropogenic perturbations have led to a loss of phytoplankton diversity and a further decline in ecological resilience in deep lakes, with likely knock‐on effects on the productivity and function of lake ecosystems.

Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a major climate variability mode that substantially influences weather extremes and climate patterns worldwide. However, the response of IOD variability to anthropogenic global warming remains highly uncertain. The latest IPCC Sixth Assessment Report concluded that human influences on IOD variability are not robustly detected in observations and twenty-first century climate-model projections. Here, using millennial-length climate simulations, we disentangle forced response and internal variability in IOD change and show that greenhouse warming robustly suppresses IOD variability. On a century time scale, internal variability overwhelms the forced change in IOD, leading to a widespread response in IOD variability. This masking effect is mainly caused by a remote influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. However, on a millennial time scale, nearly all climate models show a long-term weakening trend in IOD variability by greenhouse warming. Our results provide compelling evidence for a human influence on the IOD.

The Impact of Environmental Performance, Corporate Governance, and Financial Performance on the Disclosure of Carbon Emissions

One of the primary contributors to global climate change that may threaten human survival is carbon emissions. As a result, businesses must consider how their actions including carbon emissions affect the environment. Carbon emissions are one of the main causes of global climate change, which can endanger human survival. Therefore, companies need to pay attention to the impact of their activities on the environment, including carbon emissions. Disclosure of carbon emissions by companies is becoming increasingly important because it can affect the company's image in the eyes of the public and investors. The study aims to analyze the impact of environmental performance, corporate governance, and financial performance on the disclosure of carbon emissions by manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange for the period 2020–2022. This research uses purposive sampling. The research data obtained came from the Indonesian Stock Exchange and the company's website, and data analysis techniques were used using regression analysis. The results of this study showed that environmental performance and financial performance affected carbon disclosure, while corporate governance variables did not affect carbon emissions.

Livestock and environmental characterization of Colombian municipalities: study of vesicular stomatitis.

Amid the surge in data volume generated across various fields of knowledge, there is an increasing necessity for advanced analytical methodologies to effectively process and utilize this information. Particularly in the field of animal health, this approach is pivotal for enhancing disease understanding, surveillance, and management. The main objective of the study was to conduct a comprehensive livestock and environmental characterization of Colombian municipalities and examine their relationship with the distribution of vesicular stomatitis (VS). Utilizing satellite imagery to delineate climatic and land use profiles, along with data from the Colombian Agricultural Institute (ICA) concerning animal populations and their movements, the research employed Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to explore the correlation between environmental and livestock-related variables. Additionally, municipalities were grouped through a Hierarchical Clustering process. The assessment of risk associated with VS was carried out using a Generalized Linear Model. This process resulted in the formation of four distinct clusters: three primarily characterized by climatic attributes and one predominantly defined by livestock characteristics. Cluster 1, identified as "Andino" due to its climatic and environmental features, exhibited the highest odds ratio for VS occurrence. The adopted methodology not only provides a deeper understanding of the local population and its context, but also offers valuable insights for enhancing disease surveillance and control programs.

Arctic amplification–induced decline in West and South Asia dust warrants stronger antidesertification toward carbon neutrality

Dust loading in West and South Asia has been a major environmental issue due to its negative effects on air quality, food security, energy supply and public health, as well as on regional and global weather and climate. Yet a robust understanding of its recent changes and future projection remains unclear. On the basis of several high-quality remote sensing products, we detect a consistently decreasing trend of dust loading in West and South Asia over the last two decades. In contrast to previous studies emphasizing the role of local land use changes, here, we attribute the regional dust decline to the continuous intensification of Arctic amplification driven by anthropogenic global warming. Arctic amplification results in anomalous mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, particularly a deepened trough stretching from West Siberia to Northeast India, which inhibits both dust emissions and their downstream transports. Large ensemble climate model simulations further support the dominant role of greenhouse gases induced Arctic amplification in modulating dust loading over West and South Asia. Future projections under different emission scenarios imply potential adverse effects of carbon neutrality in leading to higher regional dust loading and thus highlight the importance of stronger anti-desertification counter-actions such as reforestation and irrigation management.

Greenhouse gas emissions patterns and insertion in global value chains: a comparative study between Brazil and China (2000–2016)

PurposeThis study aims to analyze and compare the relationship between international trade in global value chains (GVC) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for Brazil and China from 2000 to 2016.Design/methodology/approachThe input-output method apply to multiregional tables from Eora-26 to decompose the GHG emissions of the Brazilian and Chinese productive structure.FindingsThe data reveals that Chinese production and consumption emissions are associated with power generation and energy-intensive industries, a significant concern among national and international policymakers. For Brazil, the largest territorial emissions captured by the metrics come from services and traditional industry, which reveals room for improving energy efficiency. The analysis sought to emphasize how the productive structure and dynamics of international trade have repercussions on the environmental dimension, to promote arguments that guide the execution of a more sustainable, productive and commercial development strategy and offer inputs to advance discussions on the attribution of climate responsibility.Research limitations/implicationsThe metrics did not capture emissions related to land use and deforestation, which are representative of Brazilian emissions.Originality/valueComparative analysis of emissions embodied in traditional sectoral trade flows and GVC, on backward and forward sides, for developing countries with the main economic regions of the world.

Стрессорное воздействие биоцидных метаболитов актинобактерии Streptomyces geldanamycininus Z374 на цианобактерии Microcystis aeruginosa

Over the past decades, as a result of anthropogenic pollution and global warming, the frequency, intensity and geographical distribution of the mass development of microalgae and cyanobacteria in water bodies have significantly increased. The Microcystis species are responsible for most cases of the cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater bodies worldwide. Microcystis aeruginosa is the most commonly observed of them. In this work, we assessed the stress effect of isolated from actinobacteria Streptomyces geldanamycininus cyanocidal crude biocide Z374 (CB Z374) on the cyanobacteria M. aeruginosa. The results showed that CB Z374 significantly inhibited M. aeruginosa biomass. The CB Z374 half maximal effective concentration (EC50) for M. aeruginosa after 96 hours of treatment was 5 mg/L. The growth of M. aeruginosa with CB Z374 is characterized by an increase in the duration of the lag-phase, a decrease in the specific growth rate and biomass yield compared to the control. CB Z374 caused oxidative stress in cyanobacteria cells, determined by the elevated levels of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and malondialdehyde (MDA) up to 1.6 times, as well as an increased permeability of M. aeruginosa cell membranes by 1.5 times. The levels of superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT) activities and reduced glutathione (GSH) content raised in response to oxidative stress. M. aeruginosa growth inhibition was accompanied by a photosynthesis modification: the photosynthetic pigments phycobiliproteins and carotenoids content increases by 2.3 and 1.6 times respectively and the chlorophyll a content decreases by 1.2 times. CB Z374 inhibited M. aeruginosa photosynthesis, which was expressed in a decline in the maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II – Fv/Fm by 10% and a reduction in the electron transfer rate (ETR) by 18%. We assume that oxidative stress and, as a result, cell membranes damage and photosynthesis inhibition are the main mechanisms of the cyanocidal action of CB Z374 on M. aeruginosa.

Influence of a changing wave climate on the quality and morphometry of the stalked barnacle Pollicipes pollicipes (Gmelin, 1789), along the coasts of NW Iberia

Wave climate is shifting over the last decades along the Atlantic coasts of Europe ultimately driven by large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability forced by anthropogenic global warming. Changes in wave height and surf zone orbital currents are hypothesized to drive marked shifts in the shape of intertidal organisms such as the stalked barnacle Pollicipes pollicipes, whose quality and market price are known to decrease non linearly with the peduncle length: width ratio S. This study evaluates wave trends in NW Iberian Peninsula, using the Spanish Port System 2006–2020 SIMAR wave hindcast. On the other hand, trends in stalked barnacle morphology and quality are estimated from 26 sites at the management regions of Baiona and A Guarda between 2011 and 2020. Results show evidence of temporal changes in barnacle quality and, especially, morphometry caused by simultaneous shifts in winter wave induced orbital currents. Because of the non linear relationship between S and the high quality threshold, large increases in S are usually translated to small reductions in quality. However, we identified a tipping point around S = 2.4 that if surpassed can lead to great drops in barnacle quality. In addition, changes in wave forcing will have different effects at each extraction site, as trends in wave climate are decoupled from barnacle morphometry at steeper sites sheltered from the predominant wave direction. In conclusion, this knowledge could be applied to develop site specific barnacle harvesting strategies based on annual wave climate forecasts.Graphical abstract

Developing behavioral models of citizens for adapting to and mitigating climate change: a study on four prefectures in Japan

Individual behaviors of citizens are important for implementing the necessary measures for adapting to climate change. However, studies on the adaptive behaviors of ordinary citizens are limited. Therefore, in this study, we developed behavioral models to understand individual behaviors for adaption to and mitigation of climate change. We compared four behavior groups, namely, G1, individual mitigation; G2, individual adaptive; G3, long-term adaptive; and G4, solar-energy system installation behaviors. Following a questionnaire survey for the four behavioral groups, behavioral models were developed using structural equation modeling, which considered psychological factors along with selected attitudes, perceived effectiveness, norms, benefits, practicality, and intention. Furthermore, we considered the recognition and attribution of local climate change as key factors for adaptation behaviors toward local climate change. The behaviors of citizens in four prefectures in Japan, namely, Nagano, Tokyo, Saitama, and Kanagawa were considered. Among them, Nagano Prefecture, wherein the implementation of adaptation measures was at a low level while that of mitigation measures was at a high level, showed a differing trend. In the behavioral models, the recognition of local climate change directly affected the behavior of citizens in the individual adaptive behavior group. In both the individual adaptive and long-term adaptive behavior groups, the impact of benefits was substantial, with significant differences across local areas. Thus, effective adaptation strategies might involve tangible and familiar examples demonstrating the consequences of behavior, thus enhancing citizens' behavior evaluation perception and fostering its acceptance as a desirable behavior. Tailoring adaptation strategies to specific local contexts might also be necessity. To encourage citizens to adapt to climate change and its impacts, we propose two-way efforts, instead of providing one-way information, by supporting citizens to think about self-help and mutual help effectively. Our study can serve as a reference for future studies focusing on citizen behavior about climate change mitigation and enhance their adaptation for locally implemented strategies.

Evidence of conservative range in mountain grasses during past climate change: Only contractions or local expansions possible

The ongoing biodiversity crisis associated with anthropogenic global warming has especially severe effects on mountain and cold-adapted species. The lesson from the postglacial period can provide examples for future predictions, but scenarios of the range shift of mountain species are not fully explored. Different stories could happen if a species achieved long-distance dispersal and reached lowland locations or if survived only in mountains, during the ice age. In the case of grasses, a key role in range dynamics is played also by polyploidy. Due to their enhanced genetic and physiological plasticity, polyploids are thought to be less likely to become extinct during global changes.The present study explores the postglacial range shifts in two Festuca species, which differ in range size (endemic vs widespread) and in ploidy level (diploid vs mixed-ploidy). We used phylogeography and distribution models to analyze changes in potential range during global warming. We achieved a sophisticated prediction by using modeling based on climate and edaphic factors.Our findings indicate a low level of gene flow between populations, irrespective of variation in distance, range size and ploidy. Slightly shorter genetic distances were observed between the tetraploid populations compared to the diploids. Our data indicates that diploids adapted to cold conditions were restricted to mountains during glaciations, while polyploids spread more widely during cold periods. Nevertheless, since the LGM it appears that all studied ranges have been rather conservative, with maybe some local contractions and expansions, especially in tetraploids. Moreover, tetraploids demonstrated the most stable potential range during climate warming.The studied cases are characterized by individual and complex range dynamics dependent on local conditions and cytotype behaviour. However, generally speaking, studied mountain species demonstrate a conservative range, which places them at risk of extinction during global warming due to the lack of effective means of escape.

A Climatology of Intensity Change and Translation Speed of Landfalling North American Tropical Cyclones between 1971 and 2020

Abstract In this study, we investigated the translation speed and intensity change characteristics for landfalling North American tropical cyclones (TCs) from 1971 to 2020. We calculated three variables—intensity change, mean translation speed, and translation speed change—prior to each TC landfall and investigated the climatology of these variables for seven coastal segments. We found that lower-latitude segments generally had greater positive intensity changes prior to landfall, and higher-latitude segments had greater translation speeds. Longitude primarily influenced translation speed changes, with landfalling TCs along the Atlantic coast of the United States notably accelerating prior to landfall. Temporal trends in each of these variables were inconsistent geographically, but most segments showed an increase in positive intensity changes over time, demonstrating the increasing likelihood of intensifying TCs before landfall in recent years. We defined extreme intensification and extreme weakening as the 90th and 10th percentile of all landfalling TC intensity changes, respectively. We found that extreme intensification and weakening have been increasing and decreasing in frequency, respectively. Results from this study can be used in a variety of future applications, including in operational forecasting and model production, and provide a baseline for climate attribution studies investigating extreme intensity change events. Significance Statement Landfalling tropical cyclones pose significant hazards to life and property in coastal regions across North America. This study develops a comprehensive climatology of intensity change and translation speed of tropical cyclones during the final 36 h prior to landfall. We found that incidences of extreme intensification and weakening of landfalling North American tropical cyclones have increased and decreased, respectively, since 1971. We also identify lower-latitude coastal segments tend to average faster translation speeds that higher-latitude segments, while segments on the east coast of the United States tended to average a greater acceleration. These results show the importance of looking at tropical cyclone characteristics regionally and provide a useful baseline to assess how tropical cyclone risk is changing in a warming climate.

Gender disparities in summer outdoor heat risk across China: Findings from a national county-level assessment during 1991–2020

Increasing anthropogenic global warming has emerged as a significant challenge to human health in China, as extreme heat hazards increasingly threaten outdoor-exposed populations. Differences in thermal comfort, outdoor activity duration, and social vulnerability between females and males may exacerbate gender inequalities in heat-related health risks, which have been overlooked by previous studies. Here, we combine three heat hazards and outdoor activity duration to identify the spatiotemporal variation in gender-specific heat risk in China during 1991–2020. We found that females' heat risk tends to be higher than that of males. Gender disparities in heat risk decrease in southern regions, while those in northern regions remain severe. Males are prone to overheating in highly urbanized areas, while females in low urbanized areas. Males' overheating risk is mainly attributed to population clustering associated with prolonged outdoor activity time and skewed social resource allocation. In contrast, females' overheating risk is primarily affected by social inequalities. Our findings suggest that China needs to further diminish gender disparities and accelerate climate adaptation planning.